My personal PPR projections and Draft Cheat Sheets

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here are my personal draft cheat sheets upon which I base my target drafting. If you don't not agree with my projections, that's ok. This site has other projection experts that I respect highly. I'm a firm believer in projection based drafting. It ties into my approach to Target Drafting by Round (See link:

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=386403&st=0&p=4535369&hl=drafting&fromsearch=1entry4535369

 

I'll answer any questions about any part of my drafting system.

 

QBs, TEs, K and D

 

QBs ADP YARDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPS Bye RD Sched

Rodgers 2.01 4300 32 12 260 4 413 8 2-Jan S+

Vick 1.12 3500 24 13 700 6 388 7 2

 

Brees 3.03 4400 32 15 20 0 367 11 3 S++P++

Manning 4.02 4300 31 14 20 0 363 11 4 S+ P+

Brady 3.05 4180 32 10 60 0.5 368 7 4 P +

Romo 5.02 4240 30 15 80 0.5 361 5 5 S+

Rivers 3.11 4370 30 12 60 0 362 6 3 S+ P++

 

Freeman 7.05 3600 24 12 300 2 330 8 7 P++

Eli 8.01 3800 27 17 60 0 314 7 8 S+, P+

Big Ben 6.11 3880 25 12 130 2 332 11 7 P++

Schaub 6.02 4170 24 14 50 0 319 11 8

Ryan 6.03 3800 26 12 80 0.5 321 8 7 P++

Stafford 8.03 3700 26 15 90 1 315 9 10 S- -

 

Cutler 9.11 3500 23 18 180 1 293 8 11 S-, P-

Flacco 9.02 3530 23 13 80 1 292 5 11 S-, P-

Bradford 8.07 360 24 14 60 1 292 5 11

Cassell 11.08 3490 23 13 100 1 292 6 11 P- -

Sanchez 12.03 3440 22 14 100 1 284 8 11 P-

Kolb 10.08 3500 22 16 100 1 285 6 11 P+

 

Kickers bye DEFs bye ADP TIGHT ENDS RECEPTS YARDS TDS FPTS

Kaeding 6 PITTS 11 ....... 4.08 Witten. 86 940 7 222 S++P++

Crosby 10 NYJ 8 ............3.09 Gates 68 930 9 215 P+

Gostkowski 7 PHL 7.......... 4.09 Clark 77 830 7.5 205

Henery 7 GB TT - 8 ..........4.12 Finley 70 850 8 203 S+

Suisham T-11 NE 7......... 5.07 V Davis 66 900 7 198 S+++P+

Hartley 11 NYG TT - 7

Rackers 11 BALT 5........... 6.12 Daniels 64 760 5 170

Janikowski 8 NO 11 ......10.01 Gronkowski 56 670 7.5 168 P+

Vinatieri 11 CHI 8 .............9.03 Winslow 65 720 5 167 P++

Cundiff 5 SD 6............... 8.12 Lewis 56 680 7 166

Bryant 8 DET 9........... 7.05 Graham 57 650 7 164 S++P++

Hanson 9 SF 7............ 9.05 Gonzo 61 620 6 159 S+P++

Tynes 7 ARI 6............ 13.02 Cook 60 700 5 160 S+ TB 8

 

Other Tight Ends

13.11 Olsen 58 640 5 152

10.09 Pettigrew 58 630 5 151 S-

13.06 Keller 55 640 4.5 146 S+

14.04 Gresham 55 580 4.5 140 S_

 

Moeake 51 550 4 130 P- -

Boss 46 500 4 120 S+

H Miller 51 570 4 130 P+

Kendricks 46 500 4 120

 

2011 Running Back Cheet Sheet

RBS ADP rushing TDs recepts yards PPR Bye RD

Foster 1.01 1400 13 52 470 317 11 P+

Rice 1.05 1220 11 66 600 314 5

ADP 1.02 1380 13 45 400 301 9 S+

Charles 1.04 1400 10.5 50 450 298 6 S+, P-

McCoy 1.06 1060 10.5 65 550 289 7 P-

Forte 2.06 1020 9 57 500 281 8 P+

CJ 1.03 1310 11 46 340 277 6 S+, P+

Best 3.06 960 9 57 500 275 9 S-

D Mac 1.11 1070 11 51 460 270 8

 

Gore 2.05 1080 8.5 55 450 259 7 P-

MJD 1.12 1100 10 48 400 258 9 S- -

S Jax 2.07 1150 8 50 370 250 5 P-

Hillis 2.09 1000 10 50 380 248 5 P- -

Mendy 2.02 1250 12 27 190 243 11 S+

Bradshaw 3.04 1100 8 42 340 234 7 S+,P-

 

Ingram 4.11 1140 10 26 190 219 11 S+, P+

F Jones 5.04 950 7 75 360 218 5 S+, P-

Wells 8.04 780 7 15 140 149 6 DID NOT FORMALLY CHANGE PROJECTIONS, BUT UPGRADED TO ABOUT 215 FPTS WITH LOSS OF RYAN WILLIAMS. (This was a fast and dirty estimate hours after the event...upon reflection, I think that 205 is about max if he can stay healthy.

 

Turner 2.11 1150 11 12 80 201 8 S+, P+ (Edit: I actually had him higher due to my math error adding up FPTS)

Blount 4.01 1250 9 12 120 203 8

Moreno 4.11 840 7 41 360 203 6 S-, P-

F Jax 6.04 1020 7 33 240 201 7 S-

De Williams 4.06 1000 8 28 250 201 9

Greene 4.05 1150 9 15 100 194 8 S++,P-

Hitower 9.09 800 7 10 300 192 5 P-

 

Lynch 6.11 900 7 30 220 184 6 S- -, P- -

Grant 6.01 950 8 23 170 183 8 P-

Addai 7.02 800 7 34 250 181 11

Ryan Williams 8.02 700 6 35 320 179 NOW OUT FOR THE SEASON!

Benson 5.12 950 6 23 150 169 7 S-, P- -

R Bush 8.05 450 5 52 410 168 5 P-

Tolbert 7.11 670 8 27 230 165 6

D Thomas 5.11 860 7 21 150 164 5 P-

 

Jacobs 8.08 720 8 15 120 147 7 P-

J Stewart 6.09 760 7 13 100 141 9

McGahee 12.09 600 8 17 130 138 6 P-

Spiller 8.06 430 4.5 35 310 136 7

M Bush 10.07 650 5.5 20 120 130 8

Woodhead 11.11 450 4.5 28 260 130 7 P++

Jennings 11.06 550 5 25 200 130 9

 

2011 Wide Receiver Cheat Sheets

WRs ADP Recepts Yards Ru Yds TDs PPR

AJ 1.07 100 1390 10 300 S++

Calvin 1.09 85 1270 12 284

White 1.08 94 1300 10 284 S+, P++

Nicks 2.04 88 1250 11 279 S+, P++

Fitz 2.03 95 1250 10 280 P+

 

V Jax 3.01 72 1180 9 262 P++

Wayne 2.1 91 1200 8 259

Bowe 2.07 75 1060 9 253 P-

Wallace 2.12 70 1240 9 248 P+

Jennings 2.08 74 1160 9 244

 

Austin 3.02 74 1120 8 234 S+

Bryant 4.07 72 1020 10 234 S+

Harvin 5.08 76 1040 90 4.5 234 P+

M Williams 3.12 72 1060 8.5 229 S+, P++

Holmes 5.03 75 1080 7.5 228 S++

Marshall 4.03 85 1030 6.5 227 P-

DeJax 3.08 60 1030 90 9 226

Welker 3.1 87 950 6 221 P+

Collie 5.1 80 900 8 218

Lloyd 5.01 71 1020 7 216 S- - P- -

Manningham 6.05 70 1030 7 215

Boldin 5.09 75 970 7 214 S- P-

Steve Johnson 5.05 75 950 7 212 S-

 

S Moss 7.07 75 950 5 200 S-, P-

Britt 6.08 60 980 7 200

Julio Jones 7.04 64 900 6.5 193

M Thomas 7.12 70 840 90 5 193 S- - -

Colston 5.06 65 850 7 192

AJ Green 7.09 62 900 6 188 S- -

Amendola 9.01 85 750 4 184

S Rice 6.06 60 900 5.5 183 S- -

J Ford 9.1 54 830 90 6 182 S- -

Maclin 6.06 65 860 5 181

S Smith © 7.08 60 860 5 176

Ocho 7.01 60 800 6 176 S-, P+

L Moore 9.06 65 730 6 174

Garcon 7.03 54 760 7 172

 

Roy Williams 11.05 53 720 6 161 S-, P-

Meachem 11.1 52 780 5 159

Simpson 13.05 52 790 4 155

Bess 10.11 65 690 3.5 155

Evans 12.04 50 740 5 154

Edwards 10.06 50 700 5 150 S-, P- - -

Ward 11.02 53 670 5 150

Burleson 14.05 57 630 5 150

Crabtree 8.09 55 640 5 150 S-, P- - -

 

Mx Williams 10.02 55 650 4 144 S- -

Roberts 15.01 52 680 4 144

Little 12.05 53 660 4 143 S-, P- - -

Benn 14.05 51 680 4 143 P++

Royal 15.04 54 630 4 141

Branch 10.09 49 660 4.5 141

MSW 10.04 49 630 4.5 140

Floyd 9.12 43 660 5 139

James Jones 14.02 46 620 5 138

J Nelson 11.01 46 620 5 138

Other WRs to consider:

Den Moore

Mason

Hester

Knox

Bennett

Sanders

Breaston

Parrish

Decker

Burris

Briscoe

 

Again here is the link to my Targets by round and the results of my recent draft:

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=386403&st=0&p=4535369&hl=drafting&fromsearch=1entry4535369

 

If you go to that link and study it relative to this post, you can see how it all ties together. What I try to do here is pre-identify excellent value by round, yet maintain the flexibility to draft a different player if they slip enough to be a better value (Cutler in the 13th round was too good a value to pass up at that point as my QB2.) This approach also allows me maximum positional flexibility to go with the flow of the draft. In that particular draft, i was forced to go RB heavy early, and didn't draft my first WR until round 6.

I'll try to answer any questions you guys have.

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Still going to bold the RB and WR targets?

[Echo52 0]

Thanks for posting this MFM Quick question (and maybe I'm just being a tard?).. what's the P++ or P- or S++ etc stand for?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks for posting this MFM Quick question (and maybe I'm just being a tard?).. what's the P++ or P- or S++ etc stand for?

 

Mike M: I lost the Bold when I pasted in the projections....Just edited them back in. Also edited in the link to my targets by round and the result.

 

S- or S+ indicates relative strength of schedule for the 2011 season. No letter means season schedule is somewhat neutral.

 

Similarily, P- or P+ indicates relative strength of schedule for the 2011 Playoffs - weeks 14-16. No letter means season schedule is somewhat neutral.

 

S++, P++ is about as good as it gets!

[Gepetto 988]

I think you have Chad 85 and Burress too low. I also think you have very weak WRs; I always make sure to target at least one WR who can anchor my WR core and be a good WR1. I really don't know how you can pass on players like Stevie Johnson, Kenny Britt, Austin Collie, and Chad 85 after waiting so long in the first place. I think Jahvid Best and Beanie Wells are both going to have great years, but I think it would have been more helpful to your team to try and take each at least a round later than you did and be OK if you miss them because of other quality RBs you could get instead.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I think you have Chad 85 and Burress too low. I also think you have very weak WRs; I always make sure to target at least one WR who can anchor my WR core and be a good WR1. I really don't know how you can pass on players like Stevie Johnson, Kenny Britt, Austin Collie, and Chad 85 after waiting so long in the first place. I think Jahvid Best and Beanie Wells are both going to have great years, but I think it would have been more helpful to your team to try and take each at least a round later than you did and be OK if you miss them because of other quality RBs you could get instead.

 

You are right about Burress, especially after watching the highlights of the Jets game this weekend. But how could you project him before seeing him this week-end? That game was going on while we were having our draft. I did get him late in my dynasty start-up league back in June.

 

I know that Collie, Ocho and Stevie went right around where I picked Beanie. Since I haven't see a round-by-round recap of this in-person draft, I can't remember for sure who went first. But I do remember that Wells was the last of the "tweener" tier of 215-220 FPT RBs when it got to my pick. Because of that, I took him a round earlier than I projected him for. There were several tier 3 WRs (212 - 234 FPTs) on the board there and I really thought that one of them would make it back to me in round 6. They didn't - I just missed. That's the problem with drafting close to a turn rather than in the middle. But I was fortunate to be able to pick up four tier 4 WRs (174 - 200 FPTs). I have Ocho as a tier 4 guy anyway. I'm not really convinced that he's higher than S Moss, Julio, or Amendola in PPR.

 

Since we must start two RBs and 2 WRs, and we have a double flex, RBs are more valuable (and scarce) than equivalent fantasy points at WR, so picking up Beanie in rd 5 was a no-brainer. I can play the weekly match-ups and the hot WRs for my two WRs. Do I love my WRs? Hell no. But I can work with them when I have a great TE, QB, and a strong RB corps. The over-all FPTs I was able to draft make my team one of the stronger teams in this very balanced 12 team league.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Interesting stuff MFM. I do something similar for my drafts, but I do not look at schedules or playoff schedules much yet. I just think the NFL has too much parity and things are contantly changing, and it is almost impossible to predict how easy or difficult someone's playoff schedule is 3-4 months down the road (outside matchups versus constants like Pittsburgh or Baltimore). I will try to make trades or pickups in season with an eye towards the playoffs once I get a better grip on teams and team defenses.

 

I'd be interested on what your current projection for Beanie Wells looks like. Personally, I think some are overreacting to the loss of Ryan Williams a little too much. Beanie's touches have to go up, but I just do not think Beanie Wells is a very good player. 215 points just seems high to me. Unless he gets 250+ rushes, I do not see him hitting much more than 1000 yards rushing. While Kolb makes that offense better, I can't project more than 8 or 9 TD's. And Beanie is not a good pass catching back, and I'd be suprised if he ended up with even 20 receptions. So in the end I'm personally looking at something like 1000 rush yards, 8 TD's, 18 receptions, 130 yards. I'd personally project him in the 175-185 point range. Always respect your opinions and would be interested to hear how you see him getting to your projected 215 fantasy points.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Stew, I only had less than a day to react to the news of Ryan Williams injury, so obviously the 215 FPTS was a quick estimate. I cannot offer a better projection at this time for several reasons. Much will depend on who Ariz decides to replace Ryan Williams with. Another strong factor (which I'm sure will be influenced by who they pick up) and which we will see during the final exhibition game is if they intend to use Wells as the 3rd down back.

 

My 215-220 may be an over-exuberant first reaction. but i do know he goes from RBBC to bell-cow status, and he has a big chip on his shoulder to prove he can tolerate pain and handle the load.

[Gepetto 988]

You are right about Burress, especially after watching the highlights of the Jets game this weekend. But how could you project him before seeing him this week-end? That game was going on while we were having our draft. I did get him late in my dynasty start-up league back in June.

 

I know that Collie, Ocho and Stevie went right around where I picked Beanie. Since I haven't see a round-by-round recap of this in-person draft, I can't remember for sure who went first. But I do remember that Wells was the last of the "tweener" tier of 215-220 FPT RBs when it got to my pick. Because of that, I took him a round earlier than I projected him for. There were several tier 3 WRs (212 - 234 FPTs) on the board there and I really thought that one of them would make it back to me in round 6. They didn't - I just missed. That's the problem with drafting close to a turn rather than in the middle. But I was fortunate to be able to pick up four tier 4 WRs (174 - 200 FPTs). I have Ocho as a tier 4 guy anyway. I'm not really convinced that he's higher than S Moss, Julio, or Amendola in PPR.

 

Since we must start two RBs and 2 WRs, and we have a double flex, RBs are more valuable (and scarce) than equivalent fantasy points at WR, so picking up Beanie in rd 5 was a no-brainer. I can play the weekly match-ups and the hot WRs for my two WRs. Do I love my WRs? Hell no. But I can work with them when I have a great TE, QB, and a strong RB corps. The over-all FPTs I was able to draft make my team one of the stronger teams in this very balanced 12 team league.

 

I'd expect Plaxico to do about same as Braylon did with the Jets last year.

[Criper 24]

Stew, I only had less than a day to react to the news of Ryan Williams injury, so obviously the 215 FPTS was a quick estimate. I cannot offer a better projection at this time for several reasons. Much will depend on who Ariz decides to replace Ryan Williams with. Another strong factor (which I'm sure will be influenced by who they pick up) and which we will see during the final exhibition game is if they intend to use Wells as the 3rd down back.

 

My 215-220 may be an over-exuberant first reaction. but i do know he goes from RBBC to bell-cow status, and he has a big chip on his shoulder to prove he can tolerate pain and handle the load.

 

Interesting information, thanks for sharing. I do my own projections as well, and regarding Beanie, I don't see any way he can be used as the 3rd down back, and be the bell cow on 1st and 2nd down. Don't think the Cards would want to use him that much for fear of injury. I would think Stephens-Howling becomes the 3rd down back, and while it's true that Beanie is not a great receiver out of the backfield, he does have a gawdy career yards per reception average of over 12 yards per catch, which is excellent for a RB. Granted, he only has 17 career receptions so the sampling is small, but he has shown the ability to make the most of his reception opportunities. The Cards only ran the ball 320 times last year, and 365 times the year before, but if Beanie stays healthy, I think 250 carries is a realistic possibility along with 200 receiving yards and 8 total TD's. They were behind a lot last year and had to abandon the run often, but if Kolb stabilizes the QB position like he was brought in to do, 1200-1300 total yards with 8 TD's is a nice season for Beanie, and would be good production for a #2 RB.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Interesting information, thanks for sharing. I do my own projections as well, and regarding Beanie, I don't see any way he can be used as the 3rd down back, and be the bell cow on 1st and 2nd down. Don't think the Cards would want to use him that much for fear of injury. I would think Stephens-Howling becomes the 3rd down back, and while it's true that Beanie is not a great receiver out of the backfield, he does have a gawdy career yards per reception average of over 12 yards per catch, which is excellent for a RB. Granted, he only has 17 career receptions so the sampling is small, but he has shown the ability to make the most of his reception opportunities. The Cards only ran the ball 320 times last year, and 365 times the year before, but if Beanie stays healthy, I think 250 carries is a realistic possibility along with 200 receiving yards and 8 total TD's. They were behind a lot last year and had to abandon the run often, but if Kolb stabilizes the QB position like he was brought in to do, 1200-1300 total yards with 8 TD's is a nice season for Beanie, and would be good production for a #2 RB.

 

 

I agree, I can't see any way Beanie Wells is the 3rd down back. It's just not what he is cut out to do in my opinion. I think it will be Stephens-Howling or Alfonso Smith, or more likely they will bring in another RB.

 

I think your projections for Beanie are a little on the high end and would assume no other RB is brought in. Even so, 1300 total yards, 8 TD's, and say 20 receptions is still less than 200 fantasy points in PPR leagues. I'm just having a hard time seeing him get to 215 fantasy points. But MFM pretty much explained that it was just a quick estimate.