Is Forte going to be a liability come playoff time due to his recent slump?

[RoadLizard 73]

Most fantasy leagues start their playoffs very soon so everyone is trying to get their lineups solidified. Is it just me or has Matt Forte cooled WAY down as of late? Im in a league where TDs are at a little higher premium due to our larger yardage brackets but even that aside - Im concerned about the Bears offense and his effectiveness or lack thereof.

 

The QB situation doesnt help either or the fact that some Rbs wear down as the season goes on. See Frank Gore for another example of a guy that can help get you there but cant take you any further.

 

[Matt Mueller 148]

I mentioned in my Blount thread that I'm considering benching Forte.

 

Last 3 games

 

@ Oak

 

Barber 10-64

Forte 12-59

 

6-25 (10 targets)

 

San Diego

 

Forte 21-59

 

4-26 (5 targets)

 

Detroit

 

Forte

18-64-1 TD

1-3 (5 targets)

 

 

That's 3 relatively quiet games in a row. And he salvaged his low yardage total in Detroit with a TD that Barber often steals. He hasn't been blowing up lately so I think the question is valid.

 

While KC blows, if you watched them last night, there defense actually is playing pretty solid. At least as well as Oakland and San Diego.

 

While sitting someone who might get 25 touches seems absurd, he was out rushed by a team mate last game(and some of the announcers actually questioned whether the Bears where doing it on purpose to keep his numbers and contract down) and he often get's vultured and now the entire offense has taken a hit.

 

He still might get 25+ touches but I think he's lost 'must start' status.

[Matt Mueller 148]

'Matt Forte rushed for 59 yards on 12 carries and caught five passes for 25 yards as the Bears fell to the Raiders in Week 12.

Getting "only" 17 touches to Forte certainly wasn't the Bears' game plan: He needed more. Mike Martz's playcalling philosophy seemed to utilize Forte primarily on plays to the perimeter, with Marion Barber (12 carries) handling most of the inside carries. Keep Forte rolling when the Bears take on Kansas City's porous run defense in Week 13, but the loss of Jay Cutler is already having a big negative impact on Chicago's entire offense. Nov 27 - 7:35 PM'

 

Rotoworld.

[RoadLizard 73]

I mentioned in my Blount thread that I'm considering benching Forte.

 

Last 3 games

 

@ Oak

 

Barber 10-64

Forte 12-59

 

6-25 (10 targets)

 

San Diego

 

Forte 21-59

 

4-26 (5 targets)

 

Detroit

 

Forte

18-64-1 TD

1-3 (5 targets)

 

 

That's 3 relatively quiet games in a row. And he salvaged his low yardage total in Detroit with a TD that Barber often steals. He hasn't been blowing up lately so I think the question is valid.

 

While KC blows, if you watched them last night, there defense actually is playing pretty solid. At least as well as Oakland and San Diego.

 

While sitting someone who might get 25 touches seems absurd, he was out rushed by a team mate last game(and some of the announcers actually questioned whether the Bears where doing it on purpose to keep his numbers and contract down) and he often get's vultured and now the entire offense has taken a hit.

 

He still might get 25+ touches but I think he's lost 'must start' status.

 

Well said - you obviously see the light here. Maybe we are both wrong, and I hope we are in a way but I am also NO longer plugging him into the lineup automatically. Ive been using Reggie Bush here and there and as sad as that sounds, Bush seems to be getting better chances than Forte and is on a team on the upswing. Barber being a TD vulture AND getting more carries just ads to this suddenly dicey situation.

[Ray_T 801]

Well, the problem with a player like forte is this:

 

His numbers are good because he is a pass catching RB. Starting QB goes down, there is the potential (key word potential) for his numbers to drop off.

 

The potential reasons are as follows:

 

1) Teams stack the box against the run to force the 2nd string QB to throw the ball(daring them to beat them through the air).

2) Less efficient QB can mean less targets to all receivers.

 

the only potential upside is that if the QB is not as quick on the decision making, but has a tendency to use his checkdown receivers. These guys will miss when some of the primary WR's come open and dump off the ball to his checkdown with regularity. if this checkdown receiver happens to be the RB and the TE, (in this case the RB is the primary checkdown receiver) sometimes the opposite happens and they have big game receiving until teams decide to key on the checkdown option. (2 to 3 game adjustment period usually)

 

The other potential upside is if the backup QB is actually good. (happens sometimes) If this happens, Forte's numbers could potentially be very good indeed.

 

To summarize: I think Forte may have a couple good starts in him, but he may only have a 2 or 3 game window. In the first games for the backup, I'd watch closely the backup QB to see what he tends to do and determine if Forte will keep any value.

[Matt Mueller 148]

Well, the problem with a player like forte is this:

 

His numbers are good because he is a pass catching RB. Starting QB goes down, there is the potential (key word potential) for his numbers to drop off.

 

The potential reasons are as follows:

 

1) Teams stack the box against the run to force the 2nd string QB to throw the ball(daring them to beat them through the air).

2) Less efficient QB can mean less targets to all receivers.

 

the only potential upside is that if the QB is not as quick on the decision making, but has a tendency to use his checkdown receivers. These guys will miss when some of the primary WR's come open and dump off the ball to his checkdown with regularity. if this checkdown receiver happens to be the RB and the TE, (in this case the RB is the primary checkdown receiver) sometimes the opposite happens and they have big game receiving until teams decide to key on the checkdown option. (2 to 3 game adjustment period usually)

 

The other potential upside is if the backup QB is actually good. (happens sometimes) If this happens, Forte's numbers could potentially be very good indeed.

 

To summarize: I think Forte may have a couple good starts in him, but he may only have a 2 or 3 game window. In the first games for the backup, I'd watch closely the backup QB to see what he tends to do and determine if Forte will keep any value.

 

 

A. The backup started last game

B. He was awful

[Matt Mueller 148]

Rotoworld highlighted Forte's recent production downfall in their weekly rankings:

 

'Matt Forte’s problems started before Jay Cutler got hurt. Forte was one of the fantasy MVPs of the first half, but he’s headed for a rough stretch run for a number of reasons.

 

1. Hanie: The Bears offense won’t sustain drives with Hanie at quarterback. Cutler’s backup was ridiculously frantic in the pocket last week, scrambling at the slightest hint of pressure.

 

Defenses are already starting to adjust how they face Forte. He faced 8 or 9 in the box on almost half his runs last week. The Raiders didn’t respect Hanie. The Bears also got more predictable with playcalling. Seven of Forte’s 12 runs came on first down.

 

2. Usage: Marion Barber is officially a problem for Forte. Barber played quite a bit in the first half against Oakland and during crunch time. Barber is playing well and the offense has moved the ball with Barber in. That’s only going to lead to more touches for Barber, including on the goal line.

 

3. Offensive line: The Bears have generally done a decent job run-blocking, but injuries have caught up to them. Forte averaged 155 total yards per game on 23 touches in the first eight games. He’s averaged 78 yards-per-game on 20 touches in the last three games.

 

I hope I’m wrong – Forte is a fellow Tulane guy after all – but the best of Forte’s season is likely behind him. '

[RoadLizard 73]

Rotoworld highlighted Forte's recent production downfall in their weekly rankings:

 

'Matt Forte’s problems started before Jay Cutler got hurt. Forte was one of the fantasy MVPs of the first half, but he’s headed for a rough stretch run for a number of reasons.

 

1. Hanie: The Bears offense won’t sustain drives with Hanie at quarterback. Cutler’s backup was ridiculously frantic in the pocket last week, scrambling at the slightest hint of pressure.

 

Defenses are already starting to adjust how they face Forte. He faced 8 or 9 in the box on almost half his runs last week. The Raiders didn’t respect Hanie. The Bears also got more predictable with playcalling. Seven of Forte’s 12 runs came on first down.

 

2. Usage: Marion Barber is officially a problem for Forte. Barber played quite a bit in the first half against Oakland and during crunch time. Barber is playing well and the offense has moved the ball with Barber in. That’s only going to lead to more touches for Barber, including on the goal line.

 

3. Offensive line: The Bears have generally done a decent job run-blocking, but injuries have caught up to them. Forte averaged 155 total yards per game on 23 touches in the first eight games. He’s averaged 78 yards-per-game on 20 touches in the last three games.

 

I hope I’m wrong – Forte is a fellow Tulane guy after all – but the best of Forte’s season is likely behind him. '

 

All things I was thinking about too. Great points. The Barber thing is the biggest killer because at least if the yards arent there you can bank on a score or two. Not with Barber getting all those calls at the GL.

 

Fock - Whod have thought that heading into the playoffs Id be BENCHING Forte and starting Reggie Bush/Beanie/Brandon jacobs instead?