LSU/Alabama rematch for the National Championship.

[JT 137]

I am thinking that those same "unbiased computer systems" are saying LSU #1 Alabama #2...

 

 

Then your thinking would be incorrect.

 

The computer modules used by the BCS have Oklahoma State at #2.

 

The voters, who make up 2/3 of the equation, push Alabama up to #2.

[SaintsInDome2006 650]

The influence human opinion has is, next to lack of a playoff, the single biggest problem with the system.

 

Either the humans voting have it right... they're the ones putting Alabama past Oklahoma State... or they have it wrong.

 

Correct, they have it wrong.

 

Thing is there is a disparity between the viewing/ fan public and those voting.

 

There is also human bias incorporated into the computer rankings. Thanks for the links btw. This is an example.

 

http://www.gberatings.com/sos/

 

As a side note, Ole Miss, Tenn., LSU and Auburn (all in GbeRatings top 10 SOS) ALL played Bama and I guarantee you that factored into their SOS ratings. So that's kind of self-fulfilling.

 

Out of the Top 10 teams with the toughest schedules, 9 are in the SEC and Big XII. Obviously someone who inputted the data into this system started out with a prejudice (maybe a correct one) in favor of the Big 12 and SEC. Personally I do happen to think this makes sense (but then again of all the SEC's BCS challengers the team that did the best came from the Pac-12, Oregon vs Auburn) but the point is that some human impression or rather a lot of it creeps into these systems anyway.

[JT 137]

Correct, they have it wrong.

 

Thing is there is a disparity between the viewing/ fan public and those voting.

 

There is also human bias incorporated into the computer rankings. Thanks for the links btw. This is an example.

 

http://www.gberatings.com/sos/

 

Out of the Top 10 teams with the toughest schedules, 9 are in the SEC and Big XII. Obviously someone who inputted the data into this system started out with a prejudice (maybe a correct one) in favor of the Big 12 and SEC. Personally I do happen to think this makes sense (but then again of all the SEC's BCS challengers the team that did the best came from the Pac-12, Oregon vs Auburn) but the point is that some human impression or rather a lot of it creeps into these systems anyway.

 

Not sure I understand your point, but here's how the ratings are calculated.

 

•How are the ratings computed?

 

 

The formula for computing the GBE Ratings is x/y, defined as follows:

 

where x=w/(w+l) (win score, computed as follows:)

 

◦w=(home wins*.95)+(road wins*1.05)+(neutral wins*1)

◦l=(home losses*1.05)+(road losses*.95)+(neutral losses*1)

◦home wins count as .95

◦road wins count as 1.05

◦home losses count as 1.05

◦road losses count as .95

◦neutral wins count as 1

◦neutral losses count as 1

This takes into account that on average, in a match between two equal teams, the home team tends to win 5-10% more often, based on observations over the years.

 

 

 

and where y=(2/o)+(1/q) (strength of schedule, computed as follows:)

 

◦o=opponents' win %

◦q=opponents' opponents' win %

This gives more weight to the strength of the teams you have played, but tempers it with the records of the teams that they have played. This way a team cannot benefit from beating up on teams that have fattened their records by beating up 0-11 teams all year long as much as they can by winning against teams that have played teams with better records.

 

These opponents' wins are not weighted for home/away conditions, which may cause a shift in the ratings if ever "corrected for". As of right now, these percentages are straight-up wins versus losses.

 

The final ratings are multiplied by 10000 to give the numbers a "substantial look" - i.e. a team won't have a rating of .2345, they will have a rating of 2345.

 

Not a lot of human variable there.

[SaintsInDome2006 650]

•How are the ratings computed?

 

 

The formula for computing the GBE Ratings is x/y, defined as follows:

 

where x=w/(w+l) (win score, computed as follows:)

 

◦w=(home wins*.95)+(road wins*1.05)+(neutral wins*1)

◦l=(home losses*1.05)+(road losses*.95)+(neutral losses*1)

◦home wins count as .95

◦road wins count as 1.05

◦home losses count as 1.05

◦road losses count as .95

◦neutral wins count as 1

◦neutral losses count as 1

This takes into account that on average, in a match between two equal teams, the home team tends to win 5-10% more often, based on observations over the years.

 

 

 

and where y=(2/o)+(1/q) (strength of schedule, computed as follows:)

 

◦o=opponents' win %

◦q=opponents' opponents' win %

This gives more weight to the strength of the teams you have played, but tempers it with the records of the teams that they have played. This way a team cannot benefit from beating up on teams that have fattened their records by beating up 0-11 teams all year long as much as they can by winning against teams that have played teams with better records.

 

These opponents' wins are not weighted for home/away conditions, which may cause a shift in the ratings if ever "corrected for". As of right now, these percentages are straight-up wins versus losses.

 

The final ratings are multiplied by 10000 to give the numbers a "substantial look" - i.e. a team won't have a rating of .2345, they will have a rating of 2345.

 

Ok, so if that were truly the case why do 9 out of 10 teams hail from the Big 12 and SEC? there must be some weighting of the programs.

[JT 137]

Ok, so if that were truly the case why do 9 out of 10 teams hail from the Big 12 and SEC? there must be some weighting of the programs.

 

Or they actually do have, according to an unbiased statistical analysis, the toughest schedules.

 

If you're worried about bias, look at Top 25 polls that rank teams before a ball is snapped, and that are comprised of voters whose livelihood is based on getting the best possible outcome for their schools/conferences. Those are a product of incredible bias, and lead to even further skewing of results.

[VinegarStrokes 0]

Then your thinking would be incorrect.

 

The computer modules used by the BCS have Oklahoma State at #2.

 

The voters, who make up 2/3 of the equation, push Alabama up to #2.

Any computer system that ranks OK St. above Alabama is fvcking stupid! IMHO

 

Alabama lost to LSU

OK St. lost to Iowa St.

 

If you guys were arguing that Stanford has a complaint I could see that.

[JT 137]

Any computer system that ranks OK St. above Alabama is fvcking stupid! IMHO

 

 

And that's the value of opinions.

 

Remember, you were already incorrect once in this thread in thinking that the computers would agree with your opinion.

[Recliner Pilot 61]

Any computer system that ranks OK St. above Alabama is fvcking stupid! IMHO

 

 

[Recliner Pilot 61]

What out of this schedule is supposed to impress me the most outside the win vs OU?

 

What is suppose to impress the rest of the country about LSU beating the same team twice? Once in the NC game after that team couldn't win it's division of it's conference.

 

You are looking at this all wrong. You are really in a no win situation because if you win there will still be questions about what would happen against OK State. You already beat Alabama, so the only reason for LSU fans to want to play them again is because you are afraid of OK State.

[SaintsInDome2006 650]

What is suppose to impress the rest of the country about LSU beating the same team twice? Once in the NC game after that team couldn't win it's division of it's conference.

 

You are looking at this all wrong. You are really in a no win situation because if you win there will still be questions about what would happen against OK State. You already beat Alabama, so the only reason for LSU fans to want to play them again is because you are afraid of OK State.

 

Actually I agree with that. Above later in my post I argued for OSU for being in the NCG, not Bama, but you bring up a good point I did not raise.

[DanXIII 8]

Getting to play for the NC against a team you already beat doesn't mean you are the true Champion. It means you didn't have to play OK State, which was ranked higher than Alabama by the BCS computers.

 

 

Not all of them. Two of the six, including the Sagarin computer, which comes from one of the same guys whose SOS numbers are being touted in this thread, had Alabama #2 and OSU #3.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

Go back and read my words if you want to know what I said, do not try to decipher what I said and then spin it.

 

All I am trying to say is that I think that they got the Champonship game right. If you were saying Boise and Kansas St. got screwed, I would agree.

 

That is the problem. "You" think they got the championship game right. Many people think they got it wrong and hence the issue with the BCS and deciding paper champions.

[NE-TheGoodLife 0]

Not all of them. Two of the six, including the Sagarin computer, which comes from one of the same guys whose SOS numbers are being touted in this thread, had Alabama #2 and OSU #3.

 

 

Not that I really care a whole lot other than I believe OSU should be in the game, don't all six computer ratings get equal weight in the final computations? Not sure just asking. If that is the case then only 33.3% have Bama ranked higher than OSU. Each of those systems must take into account SOS and other factors from different perspectives which will give the best overall picture of teams as a whole. The only factor which will have a subjective side and can skew the overall results is the Human Condition. Why? Because as previously mentioned personal feelings come into the mix as well as associations and potentially personal gain.

 

As long as the Human vote gets 2/3 of the overall final score (or whatever it is) there will always be controversy. We all are basically pissing into the wind together and then blaming each other. Numbers don't lie but will be affected based on the comparsions and criteria setup by the Human. That is why they use 6 different ratings to Normalize the final ratings.

 

Take it for what it is.

[DanXIII 8]

Not that I really care a whole lot other than I believe OSU should be in the game, don't all six computer ratings get equal weight in the final computations? Not sure just asking. If that is the case then only 33.3% have Bama ranked higher than OSU. Each of those systems must take into account SOS and other factors from different perspectives which will give the best overall picture of teams as a whole. The only factor which will have a subjective side and can skew the overall results is the Human Condition. Why? Because as previously mentioned personal feelings come into the mix as well as associations and potentially personal gain.

 

As long as the Human vote gets 2/3 of the overall final score (or whatever it is) there will always be controversy. We all are basically pissing into the wind together and then blaming each other. Numbers don't lie but will be affected based on the comparsions and criteria setup by the Human. That is why they use 6 different ratings to Normalize the final ratings.

 

Take it for what it is.

 

My response was to someone who appeared to be indicating that the computer rankings were unanimous in saying that OSU is #2. They aren't. They are only one aspect of the formula in determining the rankings.

 

http://www.bcsknowhow.com/bcs-computer-rankings-week-eight-alabama-gets-just-enough

 

You won't get any argument from me in favor of the BCS. I think the system is garbage and needs to be completely replaced with a playoff. FWIW, the SEC lobbied for a de facto 4-team playoff back in 2008 and the plan was rejected:

 

http://rivals.yahoo....ejection_120311

 

In 2008, commissioner Mike Slive pitched a so-called "plus-one" plan that essentially was a four-team playoff using existing bowl games. Other than the ACC, the other conferences not only summarily rejected the plan, they refused to even discuss its details.

[NE-TheGoodLife 0]

Sorry Dan, I must of missed that comment. Have been following but not with every response. Just giving my 2 cents, which may not be completely relevant when I don't see all the reponses. It is a big Pandora's Box unfortunately. The powers in control do not want to change the system up, because to do so would require giving up more of their control. This will never happen since as previously stated the all mighty dollar will always play a part into the final decision.

[LSUtiger 9]

What is suppose to impress the rest of the country about LSU beating the same team twice?

 

How about the fact that LSU would have gone 14-0, would be the only undefeated team in the country (as they are now) and have handily defeated two conference champs (Oregon/WVU) away from home, and FOUR wins over top 10 teams (Bama 2x, Oregon, Arkansas). I'd say that's a pretty incredible season and arguably the most impressive in the BCS era.

 

the only reason for LSU fans to want to play them again is because you are afraid of OK State.

 

 

Scared of OSU? No offense to OSU, but let's not get carried away here. First off, most LSU fans did NOT want to face Bama again because we already beat them AT Bama. We were all rooting for OSU to make it so we could play someone new. It wasn't our decision who made it.

[JT 137]

My response was to someone who appeared to be indicating that the computer rankings were unanimous in saying that OSU is #2. They aren't. They are only one aspect of the formula in determining the rankings.

 

http://www.bcsknowhow.com/bcs-computer-rankings-week-eight-alabama-gets-just-enough

 

 

A bit of semantics, Dan. The BCS uses 6 modules to derive one computer ranking. So the previous poster was literally correct; the BCS computers picked OSU #2 and Alabama #3.

 

Parsing which of the six went the other way is like responding to "The voters favor Alabama" by saying "Not all of them!"

 

In either case, the consensus is all that matters.

[Love My Lions 1]

The BCS is an absolute joke for sure!

 

I think Oklahoma State could possibly be better than both LSU and Alabama, but we will never truly get to find out. I say that with no bias to any of those 3 teams as I am a true blue Michigan fan and love the matchup in the Sugar with Virginia Tech, even though it royally screwed some higher ranked teams - which was another travesty in and of itself. Again, all I am saying is that I am excited about the matchup, not the result of the BCS and the decision by the Sugar Bowl to take these two teams. Both my sons are Hokies fans, one having actually gone to Virginia Tech.

[Love My Lions 1]

How about the fact that LSU would have gone 14-0, would be the only undefeated team in the country (as they are now) and have handily defeated two conference champs (Oregon/WVU) away from home, and FOUR wins over top 10 teams (Bama 2x, Oregon, Arkansas). I'd say that's a pretty incredible season and arguably the most impressive in the BCS era.

 

 

 

 

Scared of OSU? No offense to OSU, but let's not get carried away here. First off, most LSU fans did NOT want to face Bama again because we already beat them AT Bama. We were all rooting for OSU to make it so we could play someone new. It wasn't our decision who made it.

 

So who is number one if Bama wins and the teams split? You know they will rank Bama number one and that won't be right. I think they should have to play again a week later.

[LSUtiger 9]

So who is number one if Bama wins and the teams split? You know they will rank Bama number one and that won't be right. I think they should have to play again a week later.

 

Don't disagree at all. Bama deserves nothing at this point and it's very unfair that LSU has to beat Bama twice to win a National Title, while Bama merely has to beat LSU once (including already losing at home with "everything" on the line).

 

But oh well, life isn't fair. It'll be a juicy cherry on our best season ever by beating Saban and those Gump bastards again.

[All_The_Way 0]

 

Nope, you will get a big * next to the title if you win, as all of them are as long as there isn't a playoff.

 

 

By Far the dumbest thing I seen posted in this thread. 14-0 there won't be any *

[All_The_Way 0]

Not that it matters but Alabama started the year at #1. Didn't they?

They won every game except vs LSU who if I remember right was #2 at the time. I could be wrong...

Alabama controled that game and had them beat a few times in that game. Their kicker missed 4 fg's.

 

No doubt in my mind that Alabama and LSU are the two best teams in the country.

 

Wrong

Wrong

Wrong

all we know is LSU is number 1.. Number 2 is forever speculative.

[Gepetto 1,454]

Too bad LSU can't just get the title now since they have already proven to be the best. And too bad we can't have Alabama play Oklahoma State to see who's number 2 since that's what everyone cares about. Oh wait, but then there's Stanford with one loss and that to top 5 Oregon.