The Others (players I didn't cover in my profiles) - RBs

[The Football Guru 224]

If you want to know what exactly I'm trying to accomplish with this series of posts, click here and read the intro. Otherwise, here are the RBs as I see them:

 

1. Leonard Fournette

 

2. Christian McCaffrey

 

3. Dalvin Cook

 

4. Joe Mixon

 

5. Kareem Hunt

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): Ray Rice

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Kenneth Dixon

 

Hunt is incredibly explosive, almost to the point where he looks like he's been shot out of a cannon as soon as he receives a handoff, and very twitchy as well. He can stop and start almost on a dime and strings together moves about as well as any back in this class. Despite his elusiveness, Hunt doesn't lack for power; he also has outstanding balance and is plenty stout enough (5-10, 216) to run inside - something he did plenty at Toledo. The Rockets counted on him more in the passing game in 2016 and he responded there as well (41 catches after totaling 32 over his previous three seasons). Hunt also values the football (one fumble on 722 total touches over the last three years). Hunt is really a bit of an unknown when it comes to pass pro and his 4.62 speed at the NFL Combine was a surprising result for someone who plays as fast as he does. With that said, PFF credited him with 98 total missed tackles forced (second in the country) and 22 missed tackles on receptions (second in the nation among running backs. In short, he's got a lot of the traits necessary to be a featured back in the NFL and might be considered a "safe alternative" for a team that doesn't want to gamble on Mixon's off-field concerns.

 

 

6. D'Onta Foreman

 

 

7. Marlon Mack

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): Chris Johnson

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Jerrick McKinnon

 

Mack is among the best big-play backs in this class (six of his fifteen touchdowns in 2016 went for 43-plus yards and Pro Football Focus notes 52.3 percent of his 1,182 rushing yards this season came on his 15 runs of 15-plus yards). He is also an exciting cutback runner with enough power to break arm tackles, although he runs a bit too upright at this point to be considered an "inside runner". Mack does his best work on the perimeter, however, and he will be able to contribute more in the passing game than his 65 receptions over three seasons might suggest. His most pressing concerns are the same ones that usually get attached to most college runners, namely trying to do much on some carries and being too quick to bounce on other runs. His biggest weakness, however, is ball security. On 651 career offensive touches, he committed 12 fumbles - a rate of 1.8 percent (roughly 2.5 times what evaluators deem acceptable). With that said, good coaching and experience can generally solve those issues. It might take a year or two for Mack to get there, but once he irons out his flaws, he has a good chance of being a lead back at the next level.

 

 

8. Alvin Kamara

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): T.J. Yeldon

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Andre Ellington

 

Among the several positives that jump out almost immediately with Kamara are his balance, elusiveness, slipperiness and pass-catching abilities. His explosiveness (4.56 speed, 39 1/2" vertical and 10'11" long jump) speak not only to those traits but help explain how he produced 23 touchdowns in only 284 touches at Tennessee. Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers with him, including why he wasn't trusted to ever carry the ball 20 times in a game, the "behavioral" and off-field concerns that likely led to his departure from Alabama and a history of knee injuries. Furthermore, he wasn't even close to leading the Volunteers in rushing in either of his two seasons in Knoxville. While it is tempting to overlook the aforementioned concerns and imagine what he could do in a wide-open offense, there is virtually nothing in his recent past that suggests he is capable of becoming a foundation back. He has moments (Texas A&M game was one such moment) where he looks like he could be a top-five back in this class, but they are too few and far between. This low ranking will look ridiculous if he finds a good position coach who can coax his talent out of him, but my assessment will be spot-on if a team drafts him thinking/hoping he is the immediate answer to their prayers.

 

 

9. Jamaal Williams

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): Isaiah Crowell

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Chris Brown (former Tennessee Titan)

 

There is not nearly enough buzz about Williams, who is probably being underrated due to a lack of eye-popping college production that was borne in part due to a number of off-field and injury issues. Like an 6-0 high school point guard who undergoes a late growth spurt and keeps his point guard skills despite growing to 6-7, Williams has transformed himself into a powerful runner during his five years in Provo - he has as much for a 215-pounder as I can remember - and his leg drive is among the best in this draft. (PFF charted him with 55 missed tackles in 2016, eighth-best in this draft class.) Williams is a bit more than just a between-the-tackles bully, however, as traditional power backs typically don't fare overly well running behind zone-blocking lines, which is what he did for the Cougars. He is fast enough to hit the edge and repeatedly shows the vision to do a lot of damage once he plants his foot in the ground. Williams only fumbled twice on 369 touches over his last two seasons as well. BYU didn't use him much in the passing game after his freshman year and he's probably not a good bet to break many long runs in the NFL, so he's probably going to need to start off his career in a committee until at least the first concern is ironed out. Overall, however, Williams has a great shot at outperforming his draft position if he can stay healthy moving forward.

 

 

10. James Conner

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): John Riggins

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Jeremy Hill

 

I'm not sure it's ever a good idea to dismiss a whole season's worth of tape, but Conner may be the exception to that "rule". It's not as if 2016 was a poor season (216 carries, 1,092 yards and 16 touchdowns), but one can only imagine how long it really takes to completely recover from 12 rounds of chemotherapy in order to be "ready" for a football season. Thus, it probably makes the most sense to treat his record-breaking 2014 campaign as his "resume year". Conner was an absolute workhorse at Pittsburgh during that season and his 233-pound frame pretty much tells you what he is in terms of running style. He is not strictly a straight-line fullback in the Mike Alstott mode and he has lighter feet than some give him credit for, but power is very much his game. Per Pro Football Focus, Conner's 88 broken tackles are the second-most in a single season out of the past three years (Cook, 92; 2016). Like Adrian Peterson and Fournette, Conner really needs to line up seven yards in the backfield and allowed to get a head of steam built up in order to be his most effective. He was rarely used in the passing game until his final season (21 catches in 2016, nine total over his first three years) and struggles in pass protection, so he needs to be viewed as two-down back who should continue to thrive in goal-line/short-yardage situations. As with any cancer survivor, there is always the possibility of more issues down the road. And it is also fair to wonder if/when he makes it all the way back, so he comes with plenty of risk. If those two concerns end up being non-issues, his next employer will be getting a tone-setting grinder on the field and a strong character influence in the locker room.

 

 

11. Samaje Perine

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): Michael Turner

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Stevan Ridley

 

Perine will almost certainly go down as the second-most physical back in this draft class behind Fournette. Perine runs like he knows exactly who he is: a 230-pound locomotive who will bring the pain when he gets a chance square his shoulders. He's going to break a slew of tackles, gain the difficult yards between the tackles, be a highly successful short-yardage/goal-line runner and do it without wasting a lot of motion. Perine managed 40 career receptions, so he's not a liability in the passing game either despite his big-back persona. He's not so straight-line that he can't run outside, but he's going to need to spend most of his time working in between the tackles at this point of his career because the speed (4.65) and explosion are about average and what you might expect from such a strong runner. Like the NFL comps listed for him above, Perine should be able to handle the load for his new team when necessary, but he will almost certainly be more effective if he is the thunder to some other back's lightning.

 

 

12. Jeremy McNichols

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): Pierre Thomas

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Devontae Booker

 

McNichols is much more of a straight-ahead, downhill back than most would probably expect for a player of his size (5-9, 214) and looks very comfortable running in between the tackles. That's not to say he lacks elusiveness, but rather that he seems to enjoy challenging tackles. He seems to have a very good feel in regards to where holes are about to open up on the second level, suggesting he has very good vision and lets his eyes tell his feet where to go. His resume includes back-to-back seasons with at least 26 total touchdowns, further proving he is quite adept at converting in short yardage. McNichols finished his career with 103 receptions and showed enough comfort running routes that he could be flexed out if necessary. (PFF charted him with two drops on 107 catchable targets over the last two years, so his hands are very good.) His 4.49 speed also makes him a difficult matchup for linebackers in coverage, so it might be his work as a pass receiver that will get him on the field quickly in the NFL. His heavy workload (314 carries in 2016) somewhat masked the fact he didn't get many yards after contact (2.1 yards) and that a figure that usually doesn't get better when transitioning to the NFL. Pass pro is a concern, as is ball security (eight fumbles over the last two years combined). Like Thomas, the odds are strong McNichols will carve himself out a nice long career, but the lack of any one special trait probably means he'll be a committee back for the foreseeable future.

 

 

13. Brian Hill

 

High-end NFL Player Comp(s): Spencer Ware

Low-end NFL Player Comp(s): Ka'Deem Carey

 

Cut from a similar mold as McNichols above, Hill assumed a heavy college workload (816 career touches, including 775 carries) and seems to prefer running in between the tackles. (Per PFF, he busted 30 runs of 15-plus yards last year - good for third-best in this draft class, so there is some big-play element to his game. He didn't fumble at all in 2016 and did so only five times in three seasons, so it's not a big leap to assume he'll quickly become a strong favorite for the all-important four-minute duties that usually salt away games. Where Hill fails a bit is in the passing game, as his blocking skills are average at best and his hands are about the same - he showed an occasional tendency to double-catch even the easiest throws, such screen passes. At this point of his career, he projects as a two-down back who can possibly work as the complementary part of a committee and someone who will need a good offensive line to make him look good.

[Kopy 589]

Guru, have you looked into Aaron Jones out of UTEP at all?

[The Football Guru 224]

I won't do a post on him, but I'll watch him again before the draft starts tomorrow.

[Ray_T 785]

Nice post Guru.

 

This is the kind of information I like to get.

[Kopy 589]

I won't do a post on him, but I'll watch him again before the draft starts tomorrow.

OK, I was just curious. He's a day three pick, but definitely my sleeper back this year.

[Marshall 98]

Nice post Guru.

 

This is the kind of information I like to get.

 

Yes indeed.