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Mike Isles

Interesting Pick Sunday

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Bookie friend of the family told me like 30+ years ago if you have a home ‘dog getting more then 7 points - take the points 

I last saw Philly +7.5 at home against Ravens.  

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I'd say look for teams that are starting a rookie QB that is struggling.  Then bet against them.  Rookie QBs might start hot, but then the NFL adjusts to them and they start to play VERY poorly.  Sometimes they rebound but often they just collapse for quite some time before they adjust back.  Most bettors don't understand that sort of stuff so you can find value there.

So the big play to me is Bengals getting 7.5 versus the Colts.  Burrow is now getting killed back there.  He will have to adjust and it could take some time.  Plus, the Colts defense is very good.  That looks like a steal to me.  So I'd take the Colts.

Sure Rivers might go bonkers and throw 2 pick-sixes or something but I think its a good play.

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