Rebuild Road - Offseason Reflections

[Bigtraine 24]

This is a long post.  It's the offseason, might as well do something.  I thought I would go back and look at my past 2 years of drafts and trades and look at each of the moves.  Some of them are pretty bad in hindsight.  Some are pretty good.  

I'm going to start at the end of the 2020 season.  I looked at my roster and saw a team that was just good enough to win a few games, but had no realistic chance of competing for a title without some amazing drafts.  I had a few studs and alot of duds.  My future draft capital was weakened by already trading away a future first rounder.  

I had gotten to this place by several years of poor drafting (Parris Campbell ahead of AJ Brown; Henry Ruggs ahead of Jefferson), and by trading for vets near the end of their FF careers to try to push for a championship (Le'Veon Bell, Lesean McCoy).  I was also hosed by a trade for Andrew Luck about 45 days before he retired (that trade was what caused me to lose my future 1st).  Whatever the reasons, I had to look at the team as it was, and I decided that instead of being stuck in the middle, I was going to try to rebuild with youth over the next couple of years.

End of 2020 roster and future draft picks:

QB:  Ryan Tannehill, Sam Darnold, Nick Foles, Kyle Allen, Jameis Winston
RB:  Le'Veon Bell, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, Ito Smith, Matt Breida, D'Ernest Johnson
WR:  Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Henry Ruggs, Corey Davis, Alshon Jeffery, Brandin Cooks, Quintez Cephus, Miles Boykin, Deonte Harris, Parris Campbell
TE:  David Njoku, Austin Hooper, Jacob Hollister, Albert Okwuegbunam, Zach Ertz

Draft Picks

2021 1st (1.04)/3/4/5
2022 3/4/5

Start of 2021 Offseason - Rebuild Begins

Once I knew I wanted to rebuild, the first priority I had was getting my own future 1st round pick back.  I was ultimately able to do so with the first of many trades, some big and some small.

Give:  DK Metcalf
Get:  2021 1.02 (drafted Jamarr Chase), 2022 1st (from Neckbeards - getting my own 1st back - ended up being 1.01 Breece Hall), 2022 2nd (from Neckbeards - 2.01 - drafted Jahan Dotson), 2022 3rd (traded away in future trade)  

Without being able to secure my own pick back, rebuilding didnt make as much sense, so this was critical.  I really wanted to keep Metcalf because he would have been a great young centerpiece, but I had to do it.  I think in hindsight this trade is an A+

The next big moves meant trading away older players who didnt fit the timeline for draft capital and/or young prospects:

Give:  Brandin Cooks
Get:  Bryan Edwards, 2.12 (traded away before draft - spoiler: it ends up being Amon-Ra St Brown)

Give:  Ryan Tannehill, Nick Chubb, Stefon Diggs, 4th and 5th rounders (Cameron Brate, Gus Edwards, 
Get:  Joe Burrow, 2021 1.07 (traded away before draft)/2.07 (Rondale Moore) /3.07 (Elijah Mitchell), 2022 1st (1.06 - Traded away later)/2nd (2.06 - Traded away later) /3rd (3.06 - Traded away later), 2023 1.11, 2.11, 3.11

That was the big one, and I think its the biggest trade in DNDL history.  I liked this trade alot because I thought it made sense for both teams.  Their team was stacked and if not for some injuries and a few breaks here or there, easily could have gotten a championship.  A really fun trade and I remember going back and forth on it quite a bit.

The next four trades were all done during the rookie draft:

Give:  2021 1.07  (ended up being Jaylen Waddle)
Get:  TJ Hockenson

Give:  2021 2.12 (Ended up being Amon-Ra St Brown), 2022 2nd from Kat Fancy (Brian Robinson)
Get:  2.04 (Terrace Marshall)

Give:  Sam Darnold, Leonard Fournette
Get:  2.05 (Zach Wilson), 5.05 (Jake Funk)

Give:  2022 3rd from Kat Fancy (Hassan Haskins)
Get:  2021 4.02 (Nico Collins)

I was super high on Hockenson that offseason.  I thought he was going to make the jump into top 2-3 TE range (behind Kelce, with Andrews).  He has not yet reached those heights but there is still hope.  Regardless, missing on Waddle hurts.  Also, trading away the pick that became Amon-Ra stings too, especially for Terrace Marshall who has been a bust.  I think I undersold on Fournette here too.  Really only the Nico Collins trade worked out in my favor, overall these were pretty unsuccessful.

My rookie draft ended up being:

1.02 - Jamarr Chase 
1.04 - Travis Etienne
2.04 - Terrace Marshall
2.07 - Rondale Moore
3.04 - Pat Freiermuth
3.07 - Elijah Mitchell
4.02 - Nico Collins
5.05 - Jake Funk

Added a couple other minor trades:

Give:  Jameis Winston
Get:  Deshaun Watson  (pre-trade/deal with Cleveland)

Give:  2022 3rd from Ski Colts (Qadree Ollison)
Get:  JD McKissic

Give:  Ty'son Williams
Get:  Chase Edmonds

I thought Watson was a good lottery ticket to hold onto since I was going through a rebuild anyway.  We will see this year how that ends up working out.  McKissic/Edmonds were just a depth pieces so I would actually have enough RBs to use.

And then there is the trade I regret the most from this period:

Give:  Jamarr Chase, Pat Freiermuth  (after rookie draft, before season started)
Get:  Ceedee Lamb  

This was during training camp, maybe start of preseason.  I admit that I got spooked by the stories of Chase dropping balls and not looking good in camp.  Lamb was an ideal young piece to add with less risk (it seemed at the time).  And as good and promising as Lamb still is, this trade is a big OOF.  

Heading into 2022:

I had good draft capital and some good young pieces.  2023 draft picks were all the rage, so I wanted to accumulate as many as I could and hope that 2022 was the last of the rebuilding years.

Pre-rookie draft trades:

Give:  Mike Williams
Get:  2023 1st from Professor Stats (1.06?)

Give:  Joe Burrow, 1.06
Get:  1.04 (Garrett Wilson), 2023 1st from Dream Weaver (1.02)

Give:  Austin Hooper
Get:  2023 3rd from Ski Colts

I'm happy with the Mike Williams trade, he didnt fit the timeline well and getting a 1st was great for me.  I think the Burrow trade is very interesting.  Pre-draft, I knew I had 1.01 and was taking Hall.  I had London/Burks/Wilson all very close, and then I had a drop off.  Moving up two spots was pretty valuable to me.  And also, getting a 1st round pick for a QB in a 1QB league is almost almost a win - even with Burrow being lights out.  Given that pick turned into the 1.02, its fantastic - if it was the back half of the first I might be regretting it some.  As is, I am super happy with this trade.

I only made one trade during the draft:

Give:  2023 3rd (3.01) from Neckbeards
Get:  4.05 (Tyquan Thornton)

Pretty meh - in hindsight I would prefer to have that draft pick back but I think there is a world where Thornton brings some value.

Rookie draft picks:

1.01 - Breece Hall
1.04 - Garrett Wilson
2.01 - Jahan Dotson
3.01 - Jalen Tolbert
4.05 - Tyquan Thornton

Almost to the end of our journey, the final two trades made during the season:

Give:  Zach Ertz, 2023 3rd from Kat Fancy (3.11)    
Get:  Michael Carter

Give:  2023 3rd from Ski Colts
Get:  Daniel Jones

The Carter trade was to get the handcuff for Breece in case he got hurt.  Then he did get hurt but Carter wasn't much of a handcuff anyway.  Price was low though, the idea was sound but it didn't work out great for me.  Jones was a nice pickup.  Usually not excited to start him, but he had a nice mini-breakout last year and gives me a little insurance for Watson if he stumbles.

Heading into 2023:

QB:  Deshaun Watson, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Cooper Rush, Jacoby Brisset
RB:  Breece Hall, Travis Etienne, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, Michael Carter, JD McKissic, Trestan Ebner, Chase Edmonds
WR:  CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, Corey Davis, Rondale Moore, Terrance Marshall, Nico Collins, Bryan Edwards, Parris Campbell, Tim Patrick, Jalen Tolbert, Tyquan Thornton, Quintez Cephus
TE:  TJ Hockenson, David Njoku

Draft Picks (I think)

1.01, 1.02, 1.06, 1.11, 2.01, 2.11

I am pretty excited by the end result.  Super stoked for this rookie class and adding some top young talent to a team with many good young pieces already.  Will 2023 be a run for a championship?  Probably not, but I think making a strong playoff push is in the cards, and you never know what can happen.  

I'm sure you can tell I like trading, and I'm always open for offers or trade talk.  I appreciate many of you that have done trades with me, even the ones I have lost badly on, for being willing to engage in trade talks and go back and forth.  

Bring on 2023!

[kutulu 1,542]

Probably dropping Brady.

[Bier Meister 1,512]

Good read.

 

These days I do not have a lot of time to read longer posts 

[kutulu 1,542]

On 4/23/2023 at 8:05 PM, Bier Meister said:

Good read.

 

These days I do not have a lot of time to read longer posts 

TLDR