NAn 39 Posted July 28, 2010 Back in ’04 I did research and analysis re: RBs and ‘heavy workloads’, which I have updated each season since. I played with several different standards and settled on the following: 1 carry = 1 carry & 1 rec = .5 carry. My thinking being receptions still account for ‘wear and tear’ but less so than carries where a RB is often tackled by several players, those players are often bigger, stronger as in DLs & LBs. I did research using this formula, which will be referred to as f/carries. I also played with a few benchmarks to define a ‘heavy workload’, and settled on 370 f/carries. The data netted 36 RBs who reached 370 f/carries a grand total of 50 times over past 30+ years. Here is the research and analysis updated to include ’09 statistics. Games Missed For RBs Following A 370 F/Carry Season • 28 of 50 (56.0%) RBs missed at least 1 game • 15 of 50 (30.0%) RBs missed 1-3 games • 16 of 50 (32.0%) RBs missed 4+ games For comparison I looked at the top 30 FF RBs the past 10 years and found 108 RBs who missed at least one game: 30 RBs x 10yrs = 300 RBs 300 RBs / 108 RBs missed 1+ games = 36.0% In Plain English: Data suggests that RBs coming off a 370 season are more likely to miss time due to injury than a typical RB in a given year... 56.0% vs 36.0%. F/Carries For RBs Following A 370 F/Carry Season • 7 of 50 (14.0%) RBs met or increased in f/carries... o Avg Increase: +17.8 f/carries • 43 of 50 (86.0%) RBs decreased in f/carries… o RBs who missed any games - Avg Decrease: -95.9 f/carries o RBs who missed no games - Avg Decrease: -29.8 f/carries • 24 of 30 (80.0%) RBs who missed no games, decreased in f/carries the year after a 370 season. In Plain English: RBs coming off a 370 season have decreased in f/carries almost 9 out of 10 times whether they were injured during the season or not. FF Production Of RB Following A 370 F/Carry Season • 8 of 50 (16.0%) RBs met or increased FF production (300 FF pts = 2100yds/15tds) • 5 of 50 (10.0%) RBs decreased FF production by 1-10%… (10% decrease = 270 FF pts) • 2 of 50 (4.0%) RBs decreased FF production by 11-20%… (20% decrease = 240 pts) • 13 of 50 (26.0%) RBs decreased FF production by 21-30%… (30% decrease = 210 pts) • 6 of 50 (12.0%) RBs decreased FF production by 31-40%… (40% decrease = 180 pts) • 7 of 50 (14.0%) RBs decreased FF production by 41-50%… (50% decrease = 150 pts) • 9 of 50 (18.0%) RBs decreased FF production by 51%+ In Plain English: 13 of 50 (26.0%) met or slightly decreased (10% decrease or less) vs. 37 of 50 (74.0%) RBs that decreased their ff production by 20% or more. Future Career FF Production Of A 370 F/Carry RB • 124 of 163/ (76.1%) RBs did not reach 200 FF pts • 21 of 163/ (12.9%) RBs reached 200-249 FF pts • 11 of 163/ (6.7%) RBs reached 250-299 FF pts • 4 of 163/ (2.%) RBs reached 300-349 FF pts • 3 of 163/ (1.8%) RBs reached 350+ FF pts In Plain English: • Just 4.3% attained 300+ FF pts after their first 370 season. • Just 11.0% attained 250-299 FF pts after their first 370 season. • Just 23.9% ever scored 200 FF pts again rest of their careers. • 76.1% never attained 200 FF pts again rest of their careers. Comments I have received feedback to the analysis in the past. Here are my comments replying to likely more here: 370 was not an arbitrary number I settled on. When I tried other benchmarks, i.e. 350, 360, etc. much of the findings were inconclusive. At 370 though, data really started to ‘say something’. I’ve heard ‘this is common sense…of course if a RB has a huge workload one year, he won’t meet touches and production next year’. Despite that though, many of us often ignore that ‘common sense’ and put those RBs at top of our rankings. I am not saying this analysis is ‘ironclad’. I do feel it is telling, but I would consider it just another factor to consider when making projections/rankings, such as: SOS, surrounding talent, offensive scheme, team, etc. Looking Back At ’09 Season, RBs 370 F/Carry Season: First Time in ‘08 2 RBs attained the 370 f/carries benchmark in ’08 (two seasons ago). Here is the comparison in their statistics: Adrian Peterson ’08 – 1880totyds/10tds, 248ffpts, 374 f/carries, 0 games missed ’09 – 1810totyds/18tds, 289ffpts, 336 f/carries, 0 games missed DIFFERENCE: Increase of 16.5% in ff production, decrease 38 f/carries Michael Turner ’08 – 1730totyds/17tds, 275ffpts, 397 f/carries, 0 games missed ’09 – 900totyds/10tds, 150ffpts, 196 f/carries, 5 games missed DIFFERENCE: Decrease of 49.4% in ff production, decrease 201 f/carries Looking Back At ’09 Season, RBs 370 F/Carry Season: Previously In Career 7 RBs who previously attained 370 f/carry seasons played last year. Remember the data: • 76.1% never attain 200 FF pts again • 56.0% miss 1 game • 32.0% miss 4+ games Ricky Williams ’09 200 ffpts, missed 0 games Stephen Jackson ’09 180 ffpts, missed 1 game Ladainian Tomlinson ’09 142 ffpts, missed 2 games Larry Johnson ’09 52 ffpts, 9 missed games Jamal Lewis ‘09 49 ffpts, 7 missed games Ahman Green ’09 23 ffpts, 8 missed games Edgerrin James ’09 19 ffpts, 9 missed games Looking Ahead To ’10 Season, RBs 370 F/Carry Season: First Time in ‘09 Chris Johnson ‘09 358 carries, 50recs = 383 f/carries 2509totalyds/16tds Eclipsed 2000yds rushing...only has happened 5 other times, and following year each RB had significant drop in production. OJ Simpson ’73: 2003rushyds/12td/0 games missed ’74: 1314rushyds/4tds/2 games missed Eric Dickerson ’84: 2105rushyds/14tds/0 games missed ’85: 1234rushyds/12tds/2 games missed Barry Sanders ’97: 2053rushyds/14tds/0 games missed ’98: 1491rushyds/4tds/0 games missed Terrell Davis ’98: 2008rushyds/23tds/0 games missed ’99: 211rushyds/2tds/12 games missed Jamal Lewis ’03; 2006rushyds/14tds/0 games missed ’04: 1006rushyds/7tds/4 games missed • 4 of 5 missed 2+ games (one missing 12) • 5 of 5 drop off of 500+yds rushing • 4 of 5 drop off of 900+yds rushing • 4 of 5 drop off in TDs of more than 50% History just does not bode well for Johnson, particularly where he is being drafted at or near top of draft boards. Looking Ahead To ’10 Season, RBs With 370 F/Carry Season: Previously In Career Ricky Williams, Stephen Jackson Expect production similar to last year, so viable FF options, but still would expect to max out right around 200ffpts. Ladainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis Just see this group as essentially done, with little to no FF value Ahman Green, Edgerrin James Out of league Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FlaHawker 24 Posted July 28, 2010 Looking Ahead To ’10 Season, RBs With 370 F/Carry Season: Previously In Career Ricky Williams, Stephen Jackson Expect production similar to last year, so viable FF options, but still would expect to max out right around 200ffpts. Can you clarify this. If we expect similar prodcution to last year both Williams and Jackson, in my league's scoring, were right around 250 pts which put them at RBs # 6 & 8 respectively. If they were to max out at 200 points that drops them down to RBs 18/19. Do you see these two as top 10? Or do you see them falling to lower half of top 20? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Turducken 0 Posted July 28, 2010 Stephen Jackson plays in the NFL now? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FlaHawker 24 Posted July 28, 2010 Stephen Jackson plays in the NFL now? Hi Newbie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,551 Posted July 28, 2010 I wouldn't touch Chris Johnson in the frst three rounds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cheesesteaks 0 Posted July 28, 2010 OJ Simpson in 74 was 27 yrs old and had been in the league for 5 years Eric Dickerson in 84 was 24 yrs old and had been in the league for 1 year, however he had carried 390 times in 83. Barry Sanders in 97 was 29 yrs old and had been in the league for 7 years. Terrell Davis in 98 was 26 yrs old and had been in the league for 3 years, however he had carried for 345 and 369 carries in 94 and 95 respectively. Jamal Lewis in 03 was 24 yrs old and had been in the league for 2 years and had carried for over 300 times in 2000 and 2002 and had been sidlined all 2001. Chris Johnson was 23 years old last year and had only carried 251 times in 2008. Because of his age, no previous injuries, not carrying too many times in 2008, and not having a punishing running style like other RBs might allow Chris Johnson to have a good 2010 season. Who would you draft ahead of CJ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cuda1337 1 Posted July 28, 2010 Great data. I am a big fan of basing decisions off of facts. Data. Science! Given these findings, I will probably never draft an RB who has 370 touches the prior year. To much risk and history says so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kent 228 Posted July 28, 2010 OJ Simpson in 74 was 27 yrs old and had been in the league for 5 years Eric Dickerson in 84 was 24 yrs old and had been in the league for 1 year, however he had carried 390 times in 83. Barry Sanders in 97 was 29 yrs old and had been in the league for 7 years. Terrell Davis in 98 was 26 yrs old and had been in the league for 3 years, however he had carried for 345 and 369 carries in 94 and 95 respectively. Jamal Lewis in 03 was 24 yrs old and had been in the league for 2 years and had carried for over 300 times in 2000 and 2002 and had been sidlined all 2001. Chris Johnson was 23 years old last year and had only carried 251 times in 2008. Because of his age, no previous injuries, not carrying too many times in 2008, and not having a punishing running style like other RBs might allow Chris Johnson to have a good 2010 season. Who would you draft ahead of CJ? Great points. And lets not forget, CJ is the fastest player in the league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted July 28, 2010 Can you clarify this. If we expect similar prodcution to last year both Williams and Jackson, in my league's scoring, were right around 250 pts which put them at RBs # 6 & 8 respectively. If they were to max out at 200 points that drops them down to RBs 18/19. Do you see these two as top 10? Or do you see them falling to lower half of top 20? What's your scoring system? My main league uses standard scoring and I just looked at each RBs total ff pts from last season. Either case you bring up a good pt...even with standard scoring they both finished top10 and so viable options. Just also emphasizing that per the data would expect just about 200 pts in standard scoring for each. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted July 28, 2010 OJ Simpson in 74 was 27 yrs old and had been in the league for 5 years Eric Dickerson in 84 was 24 yrs old and had been in the league for 1 year, however he had carried 390 times in 83. Barry Sanders in 97 was 29 yrs old and had been in the league for 7 years. Terrell Davis in 98 was 26 yrs old and had been in the league for 3 years, however he had carried for 345 and 369 carries in 94 and 95 respectively. Jamal Lewis in 03 was 24 yrs old and had been in the league for 2 years and had carried for over 300 times in 2000 and 2002 and had been sidlined all 2001. Chris Johnson was 23 years old last year and had only carried 251 times in 2008. Because of his age, no previous injuries, not carrying too many times in 2008, and not having a punishing running style like other RBs might allow Chris Johnson to have a good 2010 season. Who would you draft ahead of CJ? Definitely solid point. And if one were to buck the trend you would think it would be someone like CJ with low mileage. For me personally though, I'll pass on him and go another way (or trade out of pick). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,551 Posted July 28, 2010 Definitely solid point. And if one were to buck the trend you would think it would be someone like CJ with low mileage. For me personally though, I'll pass on him and go another way (or trade out of pick). What pick do you pull the trigger at then? Those stats are hard to argue with, but sometimes I got to go with my gut. I won't have CJ in the two leagues that either all ready drafted or is a dynasty, but I'm happy to have CJ in my 2 player keeper/auction league for about 1/4 my cap. I'll make sure I prepare for an injury, but I'm guessing he won't despite the evidence. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted July 28, 2010 What pick do you pull the trigger at then? This is tough as this research (along with other factors of course) has helped me stay away from busts over the years, so for me I have him behind the other Big3 and honestly if he fell to me, I'd likely see trade options right there during draft or take him and look to move him early on in season. I do think this is telling, but it's by no means infallible or 'gospel'. Data was off on AP last year so could be with CJ this year (and AP is relatively early in his career as well. Hmmmm.....) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
schmitty34 2 Posted July 29, 2010 Interesting analysis. You definitely have to be concerned with heavy work loads, but as mentioned, you do have look at every case differently....especailly the age and total mileage. I will point out one potential flaw in the analysis. I don't have the data, so I don't know how big of an impact it is, but I think using the top 30 FFB RBs as the benchmark to compare injury frequency may be somewhat misleading. It makes sense that the top 30 RBs would miss less games, because if they did miss games during the season, they are less likely to be one of the top 30 (e.g. less games = less points). Anyone that missed a significant amount of games would not be included in the group, so you might be skewing the % to the low side. If you want a popluation to compare the 370+ guys to, you might be better off selecting a population of guys that had 250-350 touches (or some other range) the previous year. That % would be more telling. This would tell you how much more likely the heavy workload injuries are than the average workload guys. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted July 29, 2010 I will point out one potential flaw in the analysis. I don't have the data, so I don't know how big of an impact it is, but I think using the top 30 FFB RBs as the benchmark to compare injury frequency may be somewhat misleading. It makes sense that the top 30 RBs would miss less games, because if they did miss games during the season, they are less likely to be one of the top 30 (e.g. less games = less points). Anyone that missed a significant amount of games would not be included in the group, so you might be skewing the % to the low side. Good catch schmitty, thing was it was an 'either or' thing. Basically I looked at doing say the lower end, but then it was too much the OTHER way...after the top25-30 RBs many of the remaining RBs either miss time due to injury or don't get enough touches to warrant noting. Plus, if you look at say top1-15 guys in a give year, yes, they miss little to no time. But you'd be surprised how many of the guys from 15-30 miss time, and how much time they miss. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
schmitty34 2 Posted July 29, 2010 I understand, but that only shows how much injuries impact the FFB performance during that year. Its not a predictor of injury or poor performance the next season….which is what you are trying to compare. Thats why it would be good to compare the heavy workload guys to the average workload guys the following year. Made up example: 56% of 370+ guys missed at least 1 game the following year vs. only 40% of 250-350 touch guys missed at least 1 game the following year. I think that comparison would mean more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NAn 39 Posted July 29, 2010 I understand, but that only shows how much injuries impact the FFB performance during that year. It’s not a predictor of injury or poor performance the next season….which is what you are trying to compare. That’s why it would be good to compare the heavy workload guys to the average workload guys the following year. Made up example: 56% of 370+ guys missed at least 1 game the following year vs. only 40% of 250-350 touch guys missed at least 1 game the following year. I think that comparison would mean more. Hmmm....I may look into this for next year and beyond. Good call. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kutulu 1,551 Posted July 29, 2010 You are passing on a rare talent when you don't take CJ; I couldn't do it, but you make a good case. my linky Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
