Buy Lows for Week 5

[c9h13no3 0]

Please include your own buy-lows below, and be sure to make fun of mine while you're at it.

 

Quarterbacks

Brett Favre - Yes, he's been terrible. Yes, his offensive line isn't going to get better anytime soon. But he may be getting Randy Moss, he has very easy match ups in weeks 8 and 9 (when Flacco, E. Manning, Ryan, Vick/Kolb, McNabb, ect. have byes), and they may be improved coming out of the bye. If you own one of the QB's I named above, Favre makes a very cheap QB2 option. I traded Matt Ryan for Favre/F. Jackson today, and I expect Favre to pair with Flacco quite well.

 

Eli Manning - Eli has had some awful weeks recently, posting a 5:6 TD:INT ratio. However, many of those interceptions were fluky tipped balls, not the fault of poor accuracy. Additionally, Eli's upcoming schedule is to die for: Houston, Detroit, Dallas, Bye, Seattle. That's 3 out of his next 4 match ups against bottom 6 pass defenses. He's on pace for 4000 yards this season, and injuries to the running game are already starting. Buy while his value is low.

 

 

Runningbacks

Thomas Jones - Thomas Jones was likely drafted as a bench RB option, and its unlikely your opponent planned to use them as an every week starter (thus, you can obtain him cheaply). However, Jones has quietly had a lot of fantasy value. He's averaged 4.2 yds/carry against 3 very solid run defenses. His upcoming schedule is as tasty as it gets with match ups against four of the bottom 8 run defenses in his next 5 weeks. If you're 1-3 or 2-2, and you need to win BADLY in the upcoming weeks, Jones is a great trade target to get you some wins in the very near future. However, given his age (aka, injury risk) and his tough playoff schedule, owners who are 4-0 or 3-1 should abstain.

 

Marshawn Lynch - Owners may be disappointed that Lynch went to Sea. However, Lynch is expected to take over all the early down duties. Additionally, he's on his bye this week, so owners may not want to sit through it. And like most buy-lows, Lynch's upcoming schedule is excellent. After his bye, he faces run defenses in the bottom half of the league for the next 6 weeks, including dates with Oakland & Arizona twice.

 

 

WR's

Santonio Holmes - Now that other owners have done all the work of waiting on Holmes for you, you should consider sniping him off of their rosters. Holmes was a 1000 yard WR last year, and Mark Sanchez has certainly made a leap in his second year. Braylon Edward's recent DWI has not made him any friends in the front office, and likely won't be a Jet next year. Holmes could possibly take over Edward's role, and the upcoming schedule is quite good. In the Jets next 8 games, they face 5 bottom ten defenses: Denver(7th), Detroit(10th), Cleveland(3rd), Houston(4th), and New England(5th). So if you're 1-3 or 2-2, take a gamble on Holmes, who can be had fairly cheaply right now.

 

Wes Welker - The last two games for Welker have been relatively quiet, posting 12 rec's for 115 yards in the last two contests. Now he goes on his bye week and his owner might be in a must-win situation. If you're in a PPR league and can deal with Welker being on bye, now is a great time to acquire last years highest per game scorer. Randy Moss is too busy pouting, and may even be dealt to the Vikings. So given Welker's slump, and possibly increased role, I'd say make an offer.

 

Kenny Britt - Possibly on waivers, but if he's not, he can be had for probably the worst player on your roster. Justin Gage just pulled his hamstring so Britt should see an increased role. You could possibly wait one week to buy Britt, but I would go ahead and pull the trigger now. Dallas has respectable corners, but Jacksonville's league worst secondary will likely be Britt's coming out party. Sure, Britt's upside is capped playing for the Titans, but 3-1 and 4-0 teams should buy him on the cheap & stash him for his late season schedule. From week 11-15, the best pass defense the Titans face is ranked 8th (Indy).

[belichick's hoody 0]

Ben Roethlisberger- Odds are he was drafted as a backup and is on the same roster as a quality QB, he has been an afterthought and will carry nice value upon return.

 

Marques Colston- He's gonna bounce back, he's too good not to, no matter how socialist the Saints' offense is.

 

Larry Fitz- He won't rack up huge yardage, but he should benefit from having a more accurate Max Hall at QB.

 

Matt Stafford- I wouldn't go out of my way to acquire him, but he's a solid stash as a throw in after seeing how well Shaun Hill has done in the Detroit offense.

[Bui 1]

Buy Low:

 

Chris Johnson - His value will never be lower after two anomalously bad starts!

 

Drew Brees - Underperformed thus far...but come on, he's DREW BREES. 25+ pt performances are on the horizon.

 

Aaron Rodgers - See: Brees, Drew

 

Brandon Marshall - Coming of an underwhelming performance, perhaps you can get the Beast for semi-cheap. Better days to come, I mean the man is 6'4" and built like a brick s**t house! They are going to have to exploit this if they want to win.

 

Andre Johnson - See: Marshall, Brandon

 

[c9h13no3 0]

Studs are often hard to buy low on because people have confidence that they'll bounce back. Fitz I think is the only truly buy-low, because the problems are with his quarterback play and not him. You could probably get an owner to over-react. But that's a solid list none-the-less.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Buy Low:

 

Chris Johnson - His value will never be lower after two anomalously bad starts!

 

Drew Brees - Underperformed thus far...but come on, he's DREW BREES. 25+ pt performances are on the horizon.

 

Aaron Rodgers - See: Brees, Drew

 

Brandon Marshall - Coming of an underwhelming performance, perhaps you can get the Beast for semi-cheap. Better days to come, I mean the man is 6'4" and built like a brick s**t house! They are going to have to exploit this if they want to win.

 

Andre Johnson - See: Marshall, Brandon

 

 

Good luck getting any of those guys from their respective owners.

[kmbryant09 1]

I don't think Thomas Jones is a buy-low candidate. Granted I am a Charles owner - but ABSOLUTELY no1 can deny his (Charles') talent. Now, if the Chiefs keep winning 10-13 games with Jones being the 65/35 guy, then there's no need for change.

 

But while Jones has been solid, Charles has been unbelievable (something like 7 plays of 20+ yards in 39 touches ). If/when the Chiefs find themselves in need of points, or a comeback...Charles is by far their best option. Also, with McCluster looking explosive, I can't see Jones finishing with the 280 carries that he's on pace for.

[Jeepz 0]

Only way I see getting BMarsh or AJ is when they're on bye, for a comparable player. It's possible players like that are the one bright spot, even if they're under performing.

 

Say, would you include the DWill/JStew crew in the buy low list? They've certainly under performed their expectations, but the question is will they bounce back? Hell I imagine you could buy REALLY low and just see, it shouldn't cost you anything.

[gpann101 32]

Last chance on Dez! Trade for him now and win the championship!

[c9h13no3 0]

Last chance on Dez! Trade for him now and win the championship!

Not a bad suggestion, but I don't think its owner's last chance. But Bryant's upside is undeniable, and you can get it at a discount right now. Each week you put off making a play for Bryant is one more week he could explode.

 

 

Say, would you include the DWill/JStew crew in the buy low list?

Yes, and Rotoworld agrees with me. Jeff Otah will be back in week 6, and Clausen will continue to get better each week taking pressure off of those two. However, Goodson is still getting mixed in on 3rd downs and its not like Clausen is going to stop throwing picks anytime soon. I'd make a play for them, but I wouldn't go crazy trying to get them.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Very topical post and I think your post presents a great discussion topic.

 

I do have a couple comments on your 'buy low' theory regarding Favre, and on "the trade" in general, as well as my take on your Santonio Holmes suggestion.

 

NOBODY who has Favre on their rosters will be selling right now - at least for any reasonable price. It's been my experience that expectations are the absolutely highest immediately after a trade like this if the general expectation is that the player obtained will improve the fortunes of a teammate. Favre is the player who stands to benefit the most from this trade and ALL Favre owners are overvaluing this right now.

 

The true buy lows are either

A ) the ones where the benefit of the trade are not so obvious, like Aaron Hernandez; and

B ) the players where the general perception of the consequences of the trade is negative. Owners tend to over-react to the negative, creating buying opportunities. The greatest "Buy low" of this whole deal is Tom Brady. As I stated in another post: "There are a number of reasons that the Pats let Moss go, but one is because they have their receiver situation comfortably covered. Brandon Tate CAN stretch the field very adequately. They have a WR in a TE body with a Brandon Marshall 'my ball' mentality who is a beast after the catch. They have a Pettigrew 'red zone TE' in Gronkowski. And the slot is nicely covered with both Welker and Edelman. Belichick knows exactly what he's doing and I would be more worried about the NE cold weather effect than how the WR situation will impact Tom Brady." Brady is the classic "Buy low" here. Two other 'buy lows' might be Percy Harvin (IMO the trade will benefit him, because he's a better underneath guy than a true WR1 - but some of his owners might not see it that way) and Sidney Rice - owners who have him will be much more likely to drop him on the waiver wire now, and it is still very possible that he could indeed help a fantasy team greatly when they can use him the most - during the play-offs.

 

The rationale for Santonio Holmes as a 'buy low' is also flawed IMO. The Holmes owners drafted him KNOWING that they'd have to roster him during his suspension. Why in the world would someone hold on to him for four weeks only to sell him at a discount right now?? The bargain ship on Holmes has sailed, my friend. The time to get him was perhaps after week 2 from an owner who went 0-2 and lacked WR depth to begin with.

 

Owners who are very good traders understand the how human emotions really factor into trade strategy, and how and when to take advantage. The Favre and Holmes examples are just not good examples of the realities of 'buy low' strategy.

 

I'm not in any way 'making fun' of your suggestions, just presenting my thinking and my trading experience about how to recognize and exploit a true 'buy low'. BTW, the best buy low on your whole list just might be Kenny Britt right now because the timing is very good with him (although personally I've never been a very big Britt fan.)

[p00h 85]

lol. i love these threads. Yeah some guy is ready to deal brees for a bag of chips ahoys. Smarten up!

[mccombsau 5]

Very topical post and I think your post presents a great discussion topic.

 

I do have a couple comments on your 'buy low' theory regarding Favre, and on "the trade" in general, as well as my take on your Santonio Holmes suggestion.

 

NOBODY who has Favre on their rosters will be selling right now - at least for any reasonable price. It's been my experience that expectations are the absolutely highest immediately after a trade like this if the general expectation is that the player obtained will improve the fortunes of a teammate. Favre is the player who stands to benefit the most from this trade and ALL Favre owners are overvaluing this right now.

 

The true buy lows are either

A ) the ones where the benefit of the trade are not so obvious, like Aaron Hernandez; and

B ) the players where the general perception of the consequences of the trade is negative. Owners tend to over-react to the negative aw well. creating buying opportunities. The greatest "Buy low" of this whole deal is Tom Brady. As I stated in another post: "There are a number of reasons that the Pats let Moss go, but one is because they have their receiver situation comfortably covered. Brandon Tate CAN stretch the field very adequately. They have a WR in a TE body with a Brandon Marshall 'my ball' mentality who is a beast after the catch. They have a Pettigrew 'red zone TE' in Gronkowski. And the slot is nicely covered with both Welker and Edelman. Belichick knows exactly what he's doing and I would be more worried about the NE cold weather effect than how the WR situation will impact Tom Brady." Brady is the classic "Buy low" here. Two other 'buy lows' might be Percy Harvin (IMO the trade will benefit him, because he's a better underneath guy than a true WR1 - but some of his owners might not see it that way) and Sidney Rice - owners who have him will be much more likely to drop him on the waiver wire now, and it is still very possible that he could indeed help a fantasy team greatly when they can use him the most - during the play-offs.

 

The rationale for Santonio Holmes as a 'buy low' is also flawed IMO. The Holmes owners drafted him KNOWING that they'd have to roster him during his suspension. Why in the world would someone hold on to him for four weeks only to sell him at a discount right now?? The bargain ship on Holmes has sailed, my friend. The time to get him was perhaps after week 2 from an owner who went 0-2 and lacked WR depth to begin with.

 

Owners who are very good traders understand the how human emotions really factor into trade strategy, and how and when to take advantage. The Favre and Holmes examples are just not good examples of the realities of 'buy low' strategy.

 

I'm not in any way 'making fun' of your suggestions, just presenting my thinking and my trading experience about how to recognize and exploit a true 'buy low'. BTW, the best buy low on your whole list just might be Kenny Britt right now because the timing is very good with him (although personally I've never been a very big Britt fan.)

 

Bingo!....also, Thomas Jones is probably at the height of his value right now

 

DWill, JStew, Rice, Brees, Rodgers, Moss, etc. etc.....are probably low candidates right now IF you think they'll pick it up soon

[WhiteWonder 2,733]

Please include your own buy-lows below, and be sure to make fun of mine while you're at it.

 

 

The main issue I have with your "buy lows" is that alot of the guys you listed have just recently raised their values.

 

Favre is not a buy low right after they added Moss. A decent owner will recognize that Favre now has a deep threat and they will hold.

 

Lynch was just traded to a better situation. there is new buzz about him. never a good time to buy low.

 

Holmes? you can't wait until the week he comes back and expect to buy low. Granted he hasnt shown what he can do, but the simple fact that the suspension is over means his value is up.

[giraldi02 474]

Fred Jackson is a perfect candidate. He is going to get the bulk of the carries, and before you say that the Bills are a horrible team, remember that Fred Jackson performed VERY well last season behind the same offensive line and the same horrible offense.

 

Brandon Tate is someone that needs to be owned. Particularly in return yardage leagues too.

 

Agree w/ MFM regarding Tom Brady. Many owners are going to be trying to unload him following this "setback". But remember that Brady also put up good numbers before Moss came onto their team. Hernandez is playing exceptionally, and Welker/Tate are good enough to help Brady produce good numbers.

 

Michael Vick - For those that couldn't get him when the bargaining price was through the roof...it just fell back to eye level. Now would be a great time to get him on the cheap from an over-anxious owner.

[Jeepz 0]

So what exactly is Buy Low for the likes of Brady? I don't mean this to be a help me with my trade question, but an honest "how to" question. Don't you still need to give up a top QB in exchange? And then aren't you just exchanging QBs? I guess Orton/Royal to a WR-needy owner, is that buying low? And if it is, how are you assessing that Brady is an upgrade over Orton at this point and going forward? Someone tell me what Buy Low for Brady means.

[joeyleroy 0]

The person I would try and target to trade for this week would be Ryan Mathews

I'm not sure how low he is but I would consider him a buy low right now.

 

If you've ever seen him play he has great ability and burst. He is on a very good offense that should have the lead most weeks. I really think he goes off this week and it continues and he has a great year.