Ray_T

just to clarify, 2024 would imply next year? 2023 is this year?

I'd agree with that. by year end Pickens will be considered the WR1 on that team (if he isnt already)

well, your top players are usually gonna have good metrics. those guys usually go first as they produce. after that there are a lot of things to consider: 1) potency of the offense/starting QB 2) the individual WR's spot in the pecking order for the offense. in some cases I'd rather have the #2 WR on a top offense than the #1 WR on a crappy offense but in some cases you look at a guy who could be the #1 WR on a crappy offense and that guy is still sitting on the draft board late in the draft. Case in point: houston Texans. I suspect either Nico Collins or Robert woods will put up solid fantasy numbers in Houston but I dont know which one will get it done. Late In the july Mock draft here at fftoday, I put my money on Collins with the thought that it could easily be Robert Woods (who ended up going undrafted) one of these guys taken very late in a draft will make somebody happy. I'm reasonably sure of it. 3) age. a young player is still on the learning curve and can have huge jumps in both metrics and production. an older player with subpar metrics is less likely to bounce back unless they were injured 4) injury status. the logical next thing to look at. was there an injury to the player or a key member of the offense that would cause the metrics to be off? did the player have off field problems that could have affected their on field performance? I know this should never happen, but it does. a dude focused on a divorce likely isnt focused on his job the way he should be. 5) lastly if there is something that kept the player from being their best, does that situation still exist at the start of this year? is it a recurring thing? are they still in recovery from said injury? there are other things I look at too, but this is the low hanging fruit.

metrics are useful. but they dont always tell the tale. if a player (for example) is playing hurt, the metrics are gonna look like crap. knowing that player x is playing hurt, a smart person should know not to put stock into the metrics in that particular situation. sometimes I will add that when a player and a QB are not on the same page, occasionally you are going to get some bad reads and while the QB may throw a catchable ball it may not be THAT catchable (if you know what I mean) and that will also affect the metrics some. (at least on the balls considered catchable) The metrics should pick up on the non catchable ones ane exclude them from the analysis of the WR. I always look for breaks in a pattern. if the metrics on a player are good for some years and suddenly go bad, usually there is a reason. If you find out what that reason is, and determine whether that is going to hinder the player this coming year, you have just figured out something that everyone else has ignored. for example: Zeke's yards per carry is lower than its been, but his touches are down and his TD's and goal line/short yardage touches are as good as they have ever been. if you exclude the goal line touches and the 3rd/4th and 1 touches how is his yards per carry then? Given the large number of goal line touches I'd bet money his yards per carry are far more respectable if you exclude those from the analysis. whether that makes a difference to you remains to be seen. I dont have that data at my fingertips. I'm just using a hypothetical, but it would not surprise me if there is something here. it may be worth looking into just to know for sure. anyhow like I said, metrics are useful but not always. There are times where it pays to ignore the metrics.

that was my thought. maybe he showed a lot more in practice and they dont wanna give teams a good look at him. teams sometimes do funny things in exhibition to try not to give anyone an insight as to how to attack them

further to this, I think Cooks may be underrated this year. I think he produces well now that he actually has an NFL calibre QB tossing him the football.

honestly 5 years ago you'd grab these guys hoping they'd be your WR3. now you grab them and they are WR4. the talent is deep once you get past the top end guys. I can see drafting a top end WR early but I dont see the value in grabbing an early WR2/3. you can wait some rounds and get a player who is close and still has similiar upside overall. might as well stock up on the other positions once the top WR1 are gone. Grab some RB, QB, and TE. then come back to get a few WR later. There is a 2 round dead period for WR in the middle of the draft (I forget which round) but at that point you can take a WR, and by the time the draft gets back to you, the WR available are still roughly just as good as the previous round. when you get to that point, (you'll know because when you look there will be about 6 guys who look like they are projected to score about the same) thats when you dont wanna draft a WR. go get another position and come back. the WR will still be there (or someone comparable will be)

you seem to be able to still pull decent WR out of the draft late. cant say the same for RB.

I am seeing a whole lot of depth at WR. more than I have ever seen. It is absolutely insane.

agreed. My prefered range is 5-8 with the ideal being at #6 and #7. far easier to predict what will happen by the time you next have to pick. everyone has their preferences though. I know a guy who likes picking in the #12 slot. the only benefit to picking at #12 is that that means you likely won the previous year (unless you do a redraw every year)

was he fired, or was it a case where they never renewed his contract. I heard the owner wanted him to stay, but his son had recently committed suicide so he wanted to be away from the city where all the memories were. maybe I'm wrong about this it was a long time ago and my memory isnt clear on how this shook out.

this is the real problem with an early round pick. it really forces you into a strategy. when picking in the middle or later, you can actually let the draft come to you and adjust on the fly. at #1 you pick and wait 20 picks for things to happen and if the draft doesnt unfold the way you think you may not like where you sit at the end of round 2 when you pick again (twice)

keep in mind Kelce's age. historically only one other TE has finished top 5 in fantasy for TE at this age or older (Tony Gonzales who did it twice) so there is the chance that Kelce realistically only has a year, possibly 2 left in the tank. for that reason I do like the trade. we dont have the luxury of knowing when age will catch up with him but we do know its bound to happen in the next couple of years.

correct me if I am wrong.... my understanding of your type of format is that you give up an x round pick for a player and the following year you have to give up a pick 1 round sooner. when it gets to a point where you are giving up a first round pick you are no longer allowed to keep the player the following year. so I'd say 2 years of Kupp is worth more than 1 year of Kelce. that said, I think you are undervaluing Pacheco I do think you may regret giving him up... but if you were not going to keep him anyhow this trade keeps you from losing Kelce for nothing next year and may be a nice deal to make. you also get the added value of a first round pick instead of a 2nd. so I'd make the deal

agreed. I think the right choice is to keep him. if you dont like him I suspect there would be people more than willing to trade you for him and if someone is in love with him, you can likely get more than $33 in auction dollars or players worth more than $33. in almost all PPR leagues Someone will bite on that if thats the direction you want to go. so if thinking about not keeping him at the very least you should see what the trade market is before making this decision. you may be surprised at the offers you get.

well, this is the kind of offense where a JAG can put up decent numbers. but they are not the same guy. CEH is mostly a pass catcher. Pacheco is more a runner. and at 4.9 yards per carry hes not doing badly at that. I think there is definitely some upside there. 830 yards rushing and he was barely used in the first half of the season. I have to believe that with a little experience he should improve as time goes on. To that end, I think there is something there. if going zero RB in your draft, he is a nice candidate given where he is ranked in most publications (including fftoday) sure the injury thing is concerning but you cant argue the price.

it is a business. he has 32 owners to please. he cares about what they think and nothing else. They pay his salary so he does what they tell him. The policy here is about branding. if a player is gonna go out and do a bunch of nasty things they NFL will punish them because they want to look like good corporate citizens and they dont want people looking down on the league because of something some idiot player did. thats all they care about. Reputation. they may not even care what he did or to whom. they just want to look good. thats it.

1) I dont think Goodell cares about the heat he takes 2) I dont think Goodell cares if the players hate him. 3) I dont think he cares much about what you and I think see the pattern?

true, but you can also ruin a kids confidence by putting him in too early. I have not seen enough of the guy to tell if this is likely the situation here (or not) but I'd argue that nobody has seen enough. Indy coaches may or may not have seen enough to know. but I guess we are about to find out.

I do that too, but sometimes it degenerates into this guy sucks. personally I can go to any idiot to get that opinion. I want to know reasons. Metrics catch/drop % completion % and so on. maybe a description of the offense highlighting that this player isnt suited because his skillset is better used in a different offense. Thats what I want to see

I suppose that depends on a number of factors. if it is determined that Mixon got off on a technicality, he likely still gets some sort of suspension. that sort of development wouldnt surprise me. sometimes not all evidence in a court of law is admissable and sometimes thats because the method to obtain the evidence was improper. Goodell isnt bound by this. either way, Mixon has another issue he could be suspended for as well in the giving a gun to a buddy to shoot someone case so enough stuff has happened that the league may do one suspension to blanket everything that has gone on. one thing I'll say for sure.... Mixon is an idiot. I dont think anything else needs to be said.

I think you just Volunteered. state your case, use the appropriate metrics and we will all discuss. I look forward to the conversation

the first quarter of the Philly cleveland game has been boring so far. couple nice plays by the defenses but the offense looked very vanilla. To be expected I suppose.

Hey I noticed last year for the June mock there was an analysis of the teams and the draft as a whole. but not for the July Mock. it seems to be the same again this year. just curious why that would be? I dont care a whole bunch one way or the other but as a reader, I did enjoy reading the breakdown of the june mock so it would be logical to think a july mock writup would be well received. I do know you start to get busier this time of year, so maybe its a time thing. Either way I thought I would ask.

Shhhhh. the first rule of Akers fight club is you never tell anyone about Akers fight club