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Ray_T

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Everything posted by Ray_T

  1. Ray_T

    Dynasty Keeper

    well, with dynasty the value of the player is typically as follows: 50% present value 50% future value. I think Watson outperforms williams with present value but future value is close. I like Williams situation and potential, but there is a legitimate chance he may not learn how to beat the jam at the line. hes a very smallish WR. so this is a legit challenge. his upside is huge otherwise. if he was a bigger guy with the same skillset I'd be more inclined to jump on the wagon, but I do think there is legitimate risk with him. thats the bottom line of why I view Watson better. I think the odds are about 50-50 on who is the better WR 2 or 3 years from now. Williams has the higher ceiling I think. but also the lower floor.
  2. Ray_T

    Dynasty Keeper

    I dont watch a ton of tape that way but I do try to make an effort on these players whose floor is low an whose ceiling is perceived to be high. as their true value is variable and to some degree unknown. thats usually where your fantasy football gold or your fantasy football duds are found. and if you can figure that out on even a couple players it means you can get a good player later in your draft than you should
  3. Ray_T

    Pre-Season Action - Week 1

    good to know. thanks
  4. Ray_T

    Dynasty Keeper

    a lot of guys come out of college in this situation. its up to the pro level coaching to get him up to speed on the rest. Teams who have good coaching will often be successful in developing those raw prospects. Teams without good coaching..... hit or miss.
  5. Ray_T

    Pre-Season Action - Week 1

    he always moves well, but how was his throwing of the ball. on target? good reads?
  6. Ray_T

    J K Dobbins

    well, I'm not sure I'd say hes accomplished nothing. in his rookie season he played in 15 games, averaged 6 yards per carry and got 800 yards rushing and 120 yards receiving. he got very little play early and wasnt even the starter for much of that year. arguably he may have been the starter for a handful of the late season games, but it really looked like a committee situation. so he sits out the next year due to the pre season ACL injury and comes back the following year. still recovering from a torn ACL he averages 5.7 per carry. low on the TD I admit, but if you take that 520 yards in the 8 games and pro rate over a 17 game season, hes for sure a 1000 yard rusher. so thats not exactly nothing. I fully agree its a small sample size but look at those yards per carry. your top RBs in the NFL, the bellcows average like 4.5 per carry. hes averaging almost 6 per carry. Thats crazy. I agree with more play, his yards per carry should drop some. but there is lots to like here. Thats why people are liking him. and we are only talking purely about statistics. I watched one of his late season games after he had the cleanup procedure done and he looked like a stud in that game. he passed the eye test for me. once again, we are talking about a small sample size. I"m not a Baltimore homer. I dont watch a lot of their games. but if he can stay healthy for a season, I think we will all find out why the websites love this guy in their ratings. Thats all I"m saying.
  7. well, hes a bit of an unknown commodity. he was at the point where he should have become a starter, but Brady was sitting there. You and I know nobody is gonna bench Brady just Because a developmental QB may be ready to see the field. so he sat. I do think Mayfield is a quality backup or low end starter and If the team starts poorly or Trask hugely outperforms Mayfield in pre season, I could see Trask becoming the starter. but we are looking at a downgrade from last year because I still think Brady was the best QB on the roster at that time. but..... Tampa had a lot of injuries on the O line. Fournette was plaing with a lis franc injury (amazing he didnt miss a lot of time) so there were deficiencies that really hindered the offense. so weaker QB and hopefully a healthier line. I still think the team wins less games than last year but not by as much as people think. if the line is healthy, that will mitigate a lot of the drop in production due to Brady's departure
  8. this is great information. Thanks for this.
  9. Ray_T

    Dynasty Keeper

    true, but the nfl draft is basically a ranking of talent at a specific moment in time based on what teams know about a person. a year has passed and we know more about Watson. we dont know a whole lot more about Williams as he missed much of the season due to injury and when he returned he was not anywhere close to 100% and he played very little. Hes essentially a rookie. and a known commodity is usually worth more than an unknown one who has questions. I dont deny Williams may have more upside long term but he has a deficiency that showed up on his scouting report that I feel still has not been resolved. granted I didnt expect him to make progress on this while out with an ACL injury but for me he was boom or bust. Watson since the draft has started looking like a player. likely one who should have been drafted earlier than he was. either way, hes 1 year ahead of Williams on the development curve so arguably there is less risk there with him. we have a better idea of what kind of pro he will be. we still dont know this about Williams. the sample size is too small and tainted by the ACL recovery that hindered him last year. thats why I said what I said in the earlier post. I do think he out performs Williams this year. and possibly next year as well. after that..... it is yet to be determined.
  10. Ray_T

    J K Dobbins

    I dont think he really had a question. he was mostly complaining I think. technically the question was asking why the website promotes him. though that felt rhetorical. either way I dont necessarily agree with every rating done here (or on any other site for that matter) , but I agree with most of the ratings here. what I do is I tweak the ones I dont agree with for my own list and re rank the players accordingly. the reason I use these rankings is because I generally dont have to tweak very many of the ratings. I'd suggest the original poster do the same. complaining about it seems senseless. in general, these ratings are supposed to be the midpoint of the expected outcomes given situation, health, and the surrounding cast. the reality is there is a range of values that is realistic. sometimes the poster knows more about certain players and will stray from the midpoint of the expected range based on personal knowledge (which I do respect) so sometimes these rankings wont be similar to that of other sites or your own personal rankings. you just gotta respect that you are not gonna see eye to eye with the rankings 100% of the time. you see the guys here dont agree that often when we debate the value of players and that is to be expected. and you do in the end need to sometimes assume that you are right and everyone else is wrong. for me, when I see something like this, I do my research to find out why their rankings differ so much from my own (or from the rankings of other publications) these are the areas where extra research is needed to confirm the website bias as being correct (or not). so I'd suggest you go do some research and tell us why you think they are wrong. I've done mine and told you why I think their bias is reasonable. I agree with the ranking. it may be a spot or two higher than I'd rank him due to coming back on the PUP list but its reasonably close and I'm a bit more injury averse in my rankings than the website is.. (which makes sense to me) either way, if you are gonna tell me the ranking is wrong, I'd like to know why. so tell me why if you know something I dont, I wanna know what you know
  11. Ray_T

    Pre-Season Action - Week 1

    I liked the TD. nice recovery even though he flubbed it up initially
  12. Ray_T

    Pre-Season Action - Week 1

    I was just as surprised as you were. it actually prompted me to look at some tape. I cannot deny he has made some spectacular throws showing incredible touch (meaning he passes the eye test sometimes). but I've also seen some mistakes. I really think it would have been better for his long term development to have another year to show he can step up his play and learn from his mistakes in a lower pressure environment. obviously the Colts think they can fix his issues with coaching. considering how young he is (because he declared early) the colts probably should allow him a year to red shirt and learn with pro coaching in a lower pressure environment, but I suspect that wont be the way they do this unless he shows he is clearly not ready. I think ownership wants him to play ASAP. I dont know that this is realistic. (personal opinion) but I'll have a better idea once I see him play some more against NFL competition. what we see in week 1 is largely backups playing so its a bit harder to evaluate. Teams wont show too much in the pre season either. I suspect most of what we want to see will be seen behind closed doors in a practice against starters. makes it a little tougher to evaluate rookies other than looking at individual moments. anyhow, based on what I saw on tape, I can see why the scouts were excited. I thought because of the development time, a late first round selection (or possibly second round pick) was likely more appropriate. But as we all know when it comes to QB if you like what you see, you gotta jump at it. I think he has a higher ceiling than a lot of QB but also a lower floor. hes also got to be developed. and that requires patience and good coaching as well as some time.
  13. Ray_T

    Pre-Season Action - Week 1

    I thought they were supposed to have a reasonably decent line? am I out to lunch here?
  14. Ray_T

    Pre-Season Action - Week 1

    as he should. I suspect hes not the week 1 starter, but you want him to have as much playing time as you can get him. huge talent, but requires a lot of development. likely more than you can give him in a 3 game pre season. I agree, he could have used another year in college to refine his skillset. but this is a business, and Im certain his agent told him he would be a first rounder if he declares. that makes him an instant millionaire. how many people walk from that? seriously? if he plays another year of college and has a career ending injury all that money goes away. like magic. I am pretty sure he shouldn't start a game until the second half of the season at the earliest, but it sounds like there will be pressure to start him sooner. it will be interesting to see how this goes.
  15. Ray_T

    Still chase at 2 spot in full ppr

    I think Chase is still worth picking so long as burrow doesnt miss more than 2 or 3 games. beyond that point, the risk is higher and the expected point production is lower now for 1/4 of the regular season for fantasy. This now affects which seed you are in the playoffs and can theoretically affect whether some teams make the playoffs at all. missing only 1 game, draft as usual. but more than that you wanna move him down the board a bit. There are probably 2 or 3 WR's currently below him on my list that I'd move ahead of ChaseI if hes without Burrow for more than 2 games. for me that would move him from early round 1 to mid-late round 1. if it looks like Burrow is missing more than 4 games, Chase likely is no longer a first round pick for me.
  16. Ray_T

    J K Dobbins

    its because when he does actually play, he passes the eye test. he looks like he can play if he can get himself healthy. and honestly, he had a good reason to underperform last year. he was coming back from ACL surgery. looked subpar early in the year, had a cleanup procedure done and came back and looked great (again) unfortunately he came back onto the PUP tough now its looking more like a contract dispute than an injury. not sure what to make of that but I am inclined to think hes still worth the price at his current ADP.
  17. Ray_T

    Dynasty Keeper

    less risk with watson as he already is 1 year into his development curve. Williams really never got much play as he was bouncing back from a torn ACL. I like Williams QB more, but Williams is also a smallish, super speedy WR who can be jammed at the line. he may require a bit more time to get up to speed and figure out how to beat the Jam at the line. I think his upside is just as good, potentially a bit better due to a better QB and offense currently, but the next 2 years, Watson is going to be superior and it wont likely be close. if Williams figures out how to beat the jam, his upside is considerable but for every guy like him who figures it out there are likely 2 or 3 who dont. so the risk is a lot higher there. To that end, I'd pick Watson as well
  18. Ray_T

    Let's talk Defense

    I got the pats D in our July PPR mock. I'm happy with that . they are rarely the #1 Defense but nearly always top 10 and often top 5. Last year was a particularly good year for them and the only thing I really see possibly preventing them from being the top D is the fact the offense may have trouble staying on the field. The sacks and INTs will still be there, but they may give up more points due to opposing offenses having a short field.
  19. Ray_T

    Camp News

    this is about what I was expecting. though a bit surprised about the O line. usually they find a way to keep that line good and functional. also not surprising. his issue has never been about talent. its about staying healthy. if the guy can stay healthy, hes likely an RB1. But I have serious doubts he will be able to put together more than 13 or 14 games even if they cut back on his touches. I am excited about this news. he was showing signs of putting things together late last season. This gives me hope for a team that had the potential to be a black hole for fantasy purposes.
  20. Ray_T

    Let's talk Defense

    Nice strategy if you can do it, but I think the cat is out of the bag on these guys. you wont be able to stream them because the minute you drop them another team will pick them up. unless you keep 2 defenses on your roster, this likely isnt something you will be able to do. (though I hope I am wrong)
  21. well, I think if Hopkins returns to form as I think he will, he is the guy you want at the price of a 7th rounder. but a close #2 for me is Pacheco. he never got significant playing time until week 10 and he still got 900+ total yards. if you take what he did week 10 on, and pro rate over 17 games this guy looks great. potential RB1 though this is a small sample size. hes a very close 2nd place for me. White doesnt thrill me. he averaged less than 4 yards per carry and couldnt unseat a gimpy Leonard Fournette playing with a lis franc injury last year. That tells me all I need to know about him. once again this guy also has a small sample size so It is possible I could be wrong, but the bottom line is Tampa looks like a dumpster fire and losing teams tend to have crappy RB stats most of the time. hes not a guy I would take. I fully admit I could be wrong here, but there are enough warning sign that make me feel his maximum upside is as a volume based RB2. and thats if everything goes right for the guy. I honestly think hes at that RB2/RB3 border and he lacks the upside of the other two players on your list.
  22. no judgement here. sometimes you join a league because some buddies are there. sometimes people bail on draft day and your league goes from a 12 teamer to a 10 teamer. either way, football is football. you still need to pick and start better players than your opponents. Thats the challenge. just go and make the best of your league and kick some ass. good luck
  23. Ray_T

    Early Keeper Question (Keep any 3)

    I do like Pitts better than Hock long term. TE's playing with Cousins have historically also only been able to put up mediocre numbers. Hock has been good, but not spectacular with Cousins. It wouldnt surprise me if Hock even put up better numbers this year, but Cousins is getting into the twilight of his career he is 34 and reliably has 2 good years left. maybe 3. beyond that its pretty dicey. when Cousins is done, Hocks numbers will diminish in a very significant way. Pitts is a young player in a developing offense. I suspect greener days are ahead for him. its hard to say if this happens next year. That said I also believe in protecting RB's over TE's. but in this format, if you are gonna keep a TE whose name isnt Kelce, Pitts is as good a choice as any other TE out there in keeper/dynasty. He is a generational player. but it may take a year for that offense to catch up to his talent. If you are willing to play the long game Pitts is a nice hold, but it may be a full year before you see results.
  24. Ray_T

    Early Keeper Question (Keep any 3)

    The mentality of a keeper league is a bit different than redraft. sometimes you keep a younger player because he has more upside in the future. I think that is the case with Pitts. Probably with Walker as well. dont get me wrong, I like mixon, but hes not been the same last year as he had been previous. that combined with the off field issues makes me want to shy away from the guy. Walker put up comparable numbers to Mixon last year and he didnt play week 1 and wasnt the starter for any of the first 5 games of the year. This is also a run based offense. he has the potential to be a stud. I'd keep Chubb, Walker, and likely Josh Allen.(sub in Pitts if you dont wanna keep a QB) I dont think allen would fall to you at pick 9 if you dont protect him but Pitts will and Hock might. This is a good time to transition to youth. take the chance when it presents itself in a keeper league unless you think you have a championship team.
  25. Ray_T

    Keep McCaffrey for $33/100 budget?

    the main reason you keep a player is because the cost to re acquire him is greater than the cost to keep him. if you think you can get him in the draft for $30 or less, there is no need to keep him at $33. That said, I think there is likely someone willing to pay more than $30 for him. (personal opinion) but this is a know your league thing and I dont know your league. so you can take that comment with a grain of salt. but this is an important consideration. if the cost to re acquire is about the same as the cost to keep, you should consider not keeping that player as you then gain the option and flexibility to go a different direction if the draft/auction plays out differently than you think it will.
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