Ray_T

the main reason you keep a player is because the cost to re acquire him is greater than the cost to keep him. if you think you can get him in the draft for $30 or less, there is no need to keep him at $33. That said, I think there is likely someone willing to pay more than $30 for him. (personal opinion) but this is a know your league thing and I dont know your league. so you can take that comment with a grain of salt. but this is an important consideration. if the cost to re acquire is about the same as the cost to keep, you should consider not keeping that player as you then gain the option and flexibility to go a different direction if the draft/auction plays out differently than you think it will.

ok to add to the conversation, I'm looking at how drafts are going. It does seem we are seeing more WR going earlier than in past years. whether you should jump depends on the rules of your league (once again) I did an analysis. from what I can tell if you are not getting one of the top 5 WR on the fftoday board in round 1(PPR only), you shouldnt bother with a WR in round 1. (top 3 in standard leagues) #4 and #5 are dicey in standard leagues but there is still a case to be made.for PPR. but after this point, the dropoff in production levels off some. so by waiting a round to select another different WR, you are not losing a lot If you have a flex spot in your league, there is an advantage to going RB-RB in your first 2 rounds with a third RB drafted before round 5. This is because at WR5 (Kupp projected 187.7 points) the projection is the same as it is for RB 13. in the july mock I was able to get the RB14 on the board in round 4. there is no way you will find a WR at that point in the draft who puts up that point level so in a league where you have flex spots, this is an important distinction and you should still draft RB early. (at least if you think the fftoday rankings are reasonable) another advantage to this is that RB tends to thin out in a pretty big way once you get past #15 or #16 on the list. it gets pretty sparse after that. but if you look at WR you are still getting solid WR at WR30. (Marquise brown taken at 30 DJ moore at 29 in the july mock.... still solid players) to that end I see two strategies working well in this draft year: 1) get a top 5 WR in round 1 and going hard on RB the next 3-4 rounds then flip the switch and go back to WR or grab a QB 2) go RB hard early and then come back and take WR later as solid players will still be there. I actually wanted to do option 1 in the july mock, but too many WR went early so I had to pivot and go with strategy #2. an interesting strategy was played in the June Mock with White Wonder taking RB in each of the first 4 rounds and WR thereafter. he actually had a pretty solid team from what I could see. so that strategy can still work. either way, I think these are the best options. good luck

QB- Josh Allen Derek Carr RB Derek Henry Josh Jacobs Kenneth Walker Brian Robinson WR DeAndre Hopkins Mike Williams Brandon Cooks Courtland Sutton Nico Collins Van Jefferson TE Tyler Higbee Dawson Knox Def Patriots, Chiefs ------------------------ I feel good about my draft and my team overall unlike last year when I was constantly sniped, I sat back and let the draft come to me. I wasnt even planning to take a RB in round 1 but with 4 WR off the board before I picked at 7 I had to pivot and go RB to start the draft. This is the result. At QB, fully healthy Josh Allen should be all I need, but I got a solid backup in Carr. At RB, Henry and Jacobs are top notch, but Jacobs may hold out so this is not as big a lock as I'd prefer, but if Jacobs wasnt possibly holding out I'd never be able to draft him where I did. So I took my third RB Kenneth Walker early but thats not a huge risk factor as we draft for a flex. this is just a potential RB flex if Jacobs plays, or a RB2 if he doesnt. Robinson is a later round potential starter in Washington. I cannot complain about the value. pretty solid RB4. at WR, I felt I needed to take some chances. I didnt take my first WR until round 5 but I took more WR to compensate. Hopkins I think is a legit WR1. the PFF stats indicate he still got open on the vast majority of the routes he ran last year. he still put up solid stats with backup QB level play so I think hes still a legit WR1 playing with a starting level QB I can see him as a solid WR1. Mike Williams is a very good WR playing in a great offense, and Cooks has produced no matter the QB up until last year. I am not certain anyone could have produced in Houston last year with the QB situation they had, so I'll give him a mulligan on that. Now in Dallas, with a much better offense, I see a lot of upside potential here. as a WR3 I'll take it. Then with the rest, Brian Robinson, Courtland Sutton, Nico Collins and Van Jefferson are all in my opinion potential high upside players I got at the price of a backup WR. I'm happy with all of them. I wouldnt be surprised if at least one or two of them put up WR3 numbers or better on a reasonably consistent basis this season. at Defense, Pats and Chiefs are solid. no issues there only area i dont feel great about is TE. considering how long I waited, I think Higbee and Knox are a reasonable tandem. both starters in a decent offense who should get a reasonable number of looks. I dont 100% know that this is a championship team but I think if Jacobs plays, and Hopkins performs, it could be close. If they dont, my team likely drops down to the middle of the pack. but this was the kind of draft where I felt these gambles could pay off in a big way. So I decided to Go big or go home.

I like him better in dynasty than I currently do in redraft. I'll say that much

True. and love him or hate him, that is the type of coach they have. I'm sure he will add a wrinkle or two to that offense to keep all his stars relevant.

we dont agree on everything, but we do agree on this. Montgomery will run between the tackles and can catch passes. This will hurt Gibbs value but not as much as some think. if they line him up at WR or the slot a fair bit of the time we could be looking at a similar role to Deebo except he is listed at RB while Deebo is listed at WR. I think they will run a lot of 2 RB sets where he splits out wide before the snap and runs a pass route. but I also think that he will catch more passes than fftoday has predicted but will also get less carries than they predict. in the end it will be a wash. the prediction in terms of overall fantasy points is in the ballpark. I just disagree a bit on how to arrive at that final number. He holds high value in PPR. mediocre value in standard leagues. Thats my opinion.

more gun problems. though he wasnt the idiot with the gun this time. I think it was a family member or a family friend (I forget which) still dumb. but I am not sure this one gets him a suspension as he wasnt the idiot with the gun firing rounds at people.

all players who have fit this category in the past. though Deebo lost significant value when his team brought in CMC. a stud RB really saps the value of the RB portion of any players value on that team. I think Patterson has the same thing happen to him. Bijan will take a whole lot of touches that previously went to him. Gibson could be interesting. Taysom has nice sleeper value in deeper leagues though his problem is he doesnt get enough play in any position to be more than a risky streaming option.

agreed. thats way too early.

yeah, the second WR would be a cut below this level or at this level with some baggage or something that is making people move them down their own draft boards. arguably thats the way it always is in a draft......its a series of tradeoffs. sometimes simple tradeoffs sometimes more complicated. Hopkins went 5th round in the July mock and he is a guy who could be a difference maker at that point in the draft. the PFF review suggests he is still getting open on a high percentage of his routes but that he suffered from bad QB play after Kyler Murray got hurt. I feel he still put up solid numbers considering all of this. I think Carr is a good step above the QB play he had most of last year so I think he will be fine. even if he performs on a per game basis similar to last year hes still a 1000 yard WR. but in picking him late (I think the 5th round) I felt there was value there as his floor is reasonable and if he fully bounces back he could be a steal.

he went mid 7th in the july mock. it was to the point where I was actually looking at him if he fell to me again but ICEMAN got him. I feel at that point he had reasonable value. at the 60th pick overall (end round 5) I agree, that is too early. and if thats where the current ADP is for him in PPR you would be correct to leave him to someone else.

well, in this country, if you have enough money you can get away with an awful lot. in this case he provided cash to his victim to pay for dental bills though I suspect he massively overpaid for that dental bill to make him drop the charges or refuse to testify. he got away with it but I am certain it cost him an awful lot of cash. I dont like it or agree with it, but that is the way it is. well, in some leagues/formats you are probably right. but the average fantasy footballer has gotten a fair bit more knowledgeable in recent years. and this industry is all about what have you done for me lately (unless you are a rookie or an expected breakout player) Kamara in terms of actual stats last year was only a middling RB2. with a 3 game suspension and his tendency to get injured he could easlily fall into RB3 territory. at that point I think he provides good value as a backup who can actually play if you have a bye or an injury. I am not certain that would happen but if you take fantasy points per game scored last year and multiply it by projected games played (I'm projecting 12 or 13) hes pretty close to that point. due to the bad press, the injury history, the underperforming team, the suspension, there is a lot for people to be wary of. and when people dont know how to adjust for these things lots of times they just put the guy on their DND list. so I think its very possible he could fall in some leagues. I wouldnt bet on it, but it can certainly happen. I think he still maintains some value in PPR format and Best ball formats. Standard leagues not as much.

there is always a situation where a guy like this makes sense. in a best ball draft hes a nice late pick. I do fully agree his numbers have been in decline. but the team as a whole has been. and the RB stats tend to follow the fortunes of the team (for the most part) hes not an RB1 anymore. that much is clear. I do think the Saints will be better than they were last year. Carr seems to like his checkdowns and the Saints dont have a top end TE so I suspect his checkdowns will go to the RB (Kamara) so in PPR I think he might have a decent year. but in standard leagues the risk far outweighs the potential reward for this guy. either way, there is always the possibility the guy falls in your draft. the key is knowing at what point you flip the switch and decide to buy. I do think hes a player you can get at a bargain in some leagues. one thing I will say, hes not a guy you want to overpay for. no matter how much you happen to like him.

like I said, a team thinking Kelce may be the final piece might overpay to get him. but this is speculative. its a know your league thing. and you and I dont know the league. only the original poster does. and if he shared this info, we dont have any way of knowing whether his view on his leaguemates is correct so it isnt easy to give quality advice on this part. all I was doing is laying out some options. The meat and potatoes is whether he thinks he can win. if the answer is no or highly unlikely, selling kelce for draft picks(or another player who is keepable) or some combination of the two may be the answer. and yes, he is helping another team. but this kind of trade is a trade of present value for future value. a perfectly acceptable way of rebuilding the roster. either way, whenever trading a top player, you want to see all of the options. all we can do is provide some options that perhaps the original poster may not have considered.

what format/rules are you drafting for? depending on the rules your draft rankings can vary widely. I'll be honest, true locks dont exist. any player can get injured and that means nobody is truly a lock. but you can adjust for certain risks and try to find value when you can. in the first 2 rounds you want players who are consistent and have a history of not getting injured (for the most part) the july mock was actually a pretty good indicator of who should be going where under PPR rules. Weepaws is pretty adamant that QBs should not be taken early and to a degree he is correct. I dont know that any one QB should be taken in round 1 this year but after that QB's are fair game if you want to go for it. but it is worth noting the projected dropoff at other positions is higher than the dropoff at QB in the early picks of the draft. In the july Mock, no QB's went in round 1. but in a superflex format, lots of QB's will go in round 1 and 2. so rules matter. what I do is I break each position out. I rank my RB by RB2, RB1 and elite (or Game breaking) RB1. I do the same for WR and QB. when I define game breaking players I mean players who are consistently good and can win games for you by themselves if they get hot. These players are irreplaceable and I try to get as many of them on my roster as I can. the first 2 rounds is where you will usually get this type of player. after that they are hard to find. good luck I wont give you all my secrets, but i have given you a place to start.

slap on the wrist given what he did. but that aside, 6th or 7th round is likely decent value

. he is in the unique position of being able to keep guys that were taken with late round picks. once Kelce falls off a cliff in terms of his production he will have zero value and he will start over again. its the perfect opportunity to finish the rebuild. it is basically 1 year of pain for a lot of years of being competitive. in the end its a matter of priorities. if he drafts well, and all his players play closer to their potential, he could have an outside shot at the championship Etienne has the most upside. I'm amazed at how well hes come back from that terrible injury 2 years ago and I'm not even sure he was playing at 100% for all of last year. so I see bigger and better things for him. Fields could be a top QB if his throwing improves. it could happen. they have added significant talent at WR. if he cant do it now, he will likely never do it. Akers still feels like a hit or miss player but has shown signs of coming around late last year. This feels like a team that could be very good or very bad. I think it is prudent to see what people would give for Kelce. but he may want to keep him and see what his young players can do first. its mostly a matter of what he wants to do with the team, but if things dont pan out early and Kelces numbers are down, he wont be able to get rid of him and this rebuild ends up taking a year or two longer. no doubt his team is better with Kelce, but its a one year bonus. if he cannot capitalize on it, he needs to cut bait. maybe the move is to keep kelce and see how the draft plays out. if he doesnt like his team after the draft, he can look into trading him before the season begins or just keep him if his team looks good after the draft. teams who feel they are one piece away from a championship will pay for handsomely in terms of draft capital for Kelce at that point. so there really is no need to make this move today

you could be right. But Kelce isnt a player for a rebuilding team. hes got 1, possibly 2 years in the tank. if he has 3 it would possibly be record breaking for a TE. while not impossible I wouldnt bet on it. if you gave up Kelce and got Sequon Barkley I'd consider that a win. that being said....do you think you can win it with Kelce? if the answer is no, why are you keeping him? your best bet may actually be a trade (if that is allowed) is anyone out there interested in him? better a trade than losing him for nothing.

QB's will go early and often. while QB dropoff isnt huge, the fact you can use QB as a flex (which may vary depending on how many flex spot you guys have) means you should take at least 2 QB in the first 3 rounds. The point advantage in this format is significant. if you can flex multiple QB, then you want to keep taking QB until all your flex spots are covered or until the top ranked WR or RB available is projected to get similar points to the top ranked QB on the board. in a 12 team draft every QB that is currently listed as a starter should be taken in this draft as well as a handful of the top backups in a 10 teamer all starting QB will likely be taken. I doubt any backups will be rostered unless you are flexing out a lot of spots.

that was exactly my rationale. I figured there was a chance Woods would be the guy, and that still can happen. to that end I was pleased and surprised he had dropped to me at this point in the draft. I'm also a bit surprised someone didnt take a shot at woods late in this draft. he has big time sleeper potential. I almost took him but felt that Van Jefferson, the #2 WR in a better offense might be the better play. though that was a very close one for me.

hey I'd just like to offer my thanks for doing my picks. wife decided to pick an Air B&B that has no wifi/cable because she thought it would be good to unplug. I was able to email once or twice daily but thats about all. but the good news is my draft went well. I got the players I targeted. Thanks Mike

I think the Burrow injury got more people thinking about insurance. the day he got hurt, a run on QB's started that likely may not have otherwise come to pass. Those waiting on a QB obviously realized his injury meant a guy who had taken a QB is likely to take another in fairly short order and it really affected the psyche of those drafting. If this draft had been held a week earlier, the result may have been a lot different.

I agree with the masses. 3 years with Bijan is worth more than 1 with CMC. CMC is a guy you waste a pick on if you think he puts you over the top for a championship. it may be worth your while to see if someone wants to trade up for #1 to get him. I'll be honest its probably not worth your while but you should always explore all your options in a scenario like this. sometimes someone will surprise you with an offer you cant refuse.

11.07 - DEF New England Patriots, NE

Took Carr at 10.06. was hoping to wait another round for a second QB but the injury to Burrow and the subsequent run on QB has made me rethink that. all the QB I had been eyeing up as a second QB went and Carr was the last one I really liked. not a bad consolation honestly, hes moved to a team with a lot of playmakers at WR and RB and the Saints have what might be one of the easier schedules so I'm anticipating good numbers for Carr. not likely a career best but at least as good as what hes historically done in Oakland/vegas with inferior talent to work with (other than at TE)