Ray_T

apparently dude is getting open on almost every route run so far in camp. granted I dont think hes going up against starters very often yet, but the early returns look good on this kid.

and if I'm not mistaken you're a giants fan are you not? if this is coming from a Giants Homer, I am not inclined to disagree.

yeah, but if he wants a new contract at top dollar he knows he needs to perform. thats still the bottom line. but yeah, they may sign him. all I'm saying is my preference is to draft someone playing for a contract. usually the results are good.

what is his ADP?

I'm not saying you do. what I'm saying is if you do your research (as you likely do) you can get away with picking a QB late. but lots of people dont do their own research. what about them? if you dont know who the good late round candidates are, the smarter move is to draft one earlier to make sure you fit into that category (top 12 QB) that was all I was saying. Not saying you are wrong. just saying that strategy wont work for everyone.

yeah. or he saw what a talent henry was and saw the team had a great O line and just went with what worked. tough to say which came first. the chicken or the egg haha Belichek was not known as a coach who loved the pass game. he was run and defend type coach until he got Brady. then he realized the best path with a talent like him on the roster was to throw the ball. so its not necessarily a given that hes gonna run the same offense he did in Tennessee. he might. but I'll be honest. if I had a top O line and a back like Henry I wouldnt be so concerned about running a high octane pass game. You use the assets you have and make them work to your advantage.

second pick? probably not. but Kyler Murray is a good QB (or he was before the injury) and I suspect he will be good again. but there are enough risk factors with Murray and the fact hes a rookie where I dont know that I'd be comfortable with him as a 2nd round pick for me. I think the talent is there and its certainly possible he could deliver value for the pick if things fall right. but if Murray has another injury and sits more than 3 or 4 games, the kid will be a bad pick at that point in the draft. I can guarantee that. and thats not even taking the rookie factor into account. its a legitimate concern.

dude, Im not talking about future drafts. in the July Mock thread on here I put up a post mortem analysis. basically outlining who won and what the common themes were among those teams who finished top 5 (might have been top 6) to make it easier I am posting the link here one of those themes was that every member of the top 6 of that Mock had a top QB. feel free to go read the article. its a good read. I think there may even be a link to the scoring page of the draft as well. I'd be happy to answer any questions you have regarding it. keep in mind it is only one draft so maybe the draft bucked the general trend but all the mockers finishing in the top 6 had a top 12 qB on their roster (in many cased they had 2) I think its significant. surprised me as I went RB early in the draft but did draft Herbert early (ish) but not in round 1 so the bottom line is, I think you need a top 12 QB to have a good shot at winning. (preferably top 6) and if you dont hit on one, the odds dont seem to be great.

fantasy points of course. what else would I base it on?

I like buying players who are trying to get that big contract. I am less keen on getting players who already have the big contract. there are exceptions of course. not sure if that would apply here.

agreed. if hes still pulling this off come late pre season THEN its worth getting excited about. the important thing is he doesnt look crappy at this point

you may be right. but to be fair, I dont know that Jones has ever had a WR anywhere close to his talent. Id like to see how this plays out.

the Denver WR were supposed to do this when Wilson arrived in Denver. Not sure I'd call that a success. but at the same time Wilson performed better last year. too little too late to save his job there, but maybe things will be different this time.

The value of the QB position seems to have increased over the last decade or so. and some leagues now exist where the rules make it so QB's do have more value. when I did my post mortem on the july mock, all the top teams had a top QB. granted not all those top QB were early round picks, but the majority of them were. so you can still have success drafting a QB late, but you have to be one of the one or two teams who hits on one late. its both a know your league thing, but its also a know yourself thing. if you are the type who will do your research you can increase your chances of hitting on a QB late. but if you are the type who doesnt do their research, you may be better advised to grab one earlier if you feel good production at the position is important (based on the rules of your league)

I found another article. apparently there is a new technique that improves recovery time. they did it with Akers, but I dont know if the end result was that much better. What happened to Cam Akers? How Rams RB made remarkable recovery from Achilles injury to play in playoffs | Sporting News

ok I got curious and found a link that may be helpful here. RB's have recovered but the odds still are not great. Cam Akers and the History of Achilles Injuries For NFL Running Backs (sports-king.com)

you are right. I got my injuries mixed up. my bad for some dumb reason I thought it was an achilles. although a Lis franc injury is just as bad (worse usually if its bad enough to operate on)

agreed. Gus is the short yardage guy. no question about it. though I am wondering if it depends on the nature of the achilles. you are fully correct. that used to be a career ender for RB. but Etienne seems to have recovered fine. I dont know if its better medical technology or if he just injured it in a way that was easier to repair. I have been trying to get some info on this because it will allow me an edge if I can predict a recovery from injury on a player everyone else has written off. That said..... I dont know a ton about this Vidal guy, but if coach hand picked him, he must think he can develop him into a player. given that he likely played against this kid I am guessing he knows stuff about him the rest of us dont. either way I am hoping training camp reports enlighten us. but I will say one thing..... between Vidal and Dobbins, one of them likely puts up numbers and you should be able to get both very late in the draft. would it be fair strategy if you draft on the turn late to take both in short order in the hope one turns into a starter?

thats a very big IF. I have always liked the guy. drafted him last year and regretted it. That said, if I can get him on the cheap, I may buy him again at auction late but the price needs to be right. while I'm down on his injury history, hes not a guy who should go undrafted. while healthy, he should produce. the questions I have is: how much will the most recent injury affect his production? for this, I'll be looking at camp reports to see how he is looking and the second question is what are the odds he gets hurt again? hes a nice late round lotto ticket, but dont overpay.

I think it depends on the TE depth that particular year. I waited to the double digit rounds in the July mock last year and I personally believe it cost me. there just were not enough productive TE's available at the time to warrant the strategy. dont get me wrong, I've done well with this strategy in the past, but it just didnt work out for me last go. if you have 8 good TE's you need to start thinking about a TE when 5 or 6 have gone off the board. if there are 10+ good TE you can likely afford to wait a bit. with a fair number of new TE prospects being drafted I suspect this strategy will be a good one for a couple years but we may be at the end of that window where you need to take one a little earlier. maybe round 8 or so obviously it depends also on the size of your league. in a 10 teamer, you can wait longer than you can in a 12 teamer.

Shhh. keep this quiet. yes, pits quietly looks like a good value pick at his ADP

I doubt he abandons it. but I'm sure hes wanting a more balanced offense.

well, this is the direction they should be going. Jackson is getting close to the age of 30. so his Athleticism will start to fade soon enough. if they keep running him he will be done by the time he hits 31. similar to Cam Newton, Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick and most other running QB's you can name whose career ended likely sooner than it should have. hes a good enough passer that he doesnt need to run the way he did. The threat to run should be enough on most nights. in important games when the defense is keying on the pass alone with some success, I could see him pulling this out of his bag of tricks to get the defense unbalanced before returning to his normal game, but I'll be clear this cannot be an every game strategy anymore. if they do keep running him the way he has been his career wont last long. I imagine the Henry add will take some of this burden off of his shoulders. might as well beat up the old war horse who is still good in short yardage situations and preserve your 50 million dollar QB (or whatever value his contract is at... I fully admit I'm too lazy to look it up)

another possibility is they go Henry almost exclusively until the post season and then hit them with the changeup come playoff time. Team is good enough that they can play the long game and not tip their hand to show this until playoff time.

they will for sure still use him. but likely a bit less. the advantage is that they stop the defense from keying on one specific person running the ball. they have to account for the possibility it could be either of them. That completely will change the way a Defense needs to defend the red zone runs and will make it more difficult. I suspect what will happen is they will use Henry exclusively the first couple of games to get people thinking hes the guy, then they will start to sneak some Lamar carries back in. At some point they will find a balance that will keep defenses unbalanced and that's where they will try to stay. my belief is that one in 3 or one in 4 will still go to Jackson.