Ray_T

the year before the line was functioning a bit better I think. if my memory isnt out to lunch I seem to think they had some key injuries to that O line which led to some really poor performances

agreed. nobody is picking him. does he actually have an ADP? might actually be a waiver wire darling if he ends up producing. That said, with the new WR they have in I can see a bounceback of sorts. Will it be enough to make him anything other than a quality backup? I cannot say but if hes gonna turn it around it needs to happen this year. I dont think he will get another shot to turn his career around.

to be clear, I was a major Tomlinson fan and this debate looks an awful lot like the debate they had about LT when he turned 30. but the dropoff was there. Though I think his issue was more with a nagging foot injury that affected his on field production. next year he had a bounce back year of sorts, but was never a top 5 RB after he turned 30.

me too. dont get me wrong, I'm not a hater. I'd love nothing more than to see Henry pull this off.

yeah, and hes a mobile QB too. imagine if they had a less mobile guy in there. too bad too. this might actually be a case where a QB prospect was ruined by continuously putting him behind a leaky line. but it looks like they are making a significant attempt to fix the line this year so it will be interesting if Jones production improves as a result.

I agree. Henry probably will be slightly slower than last year. Thats what happens at this age. but the fact he will be running behind a better line and playing on a better team should make up for all of that. the only thing that really scares me is his age. once RB's pass the age of 30 2 possible scenarios can play out to prevent your RB from being worth their pick: 1) they are less productive due to skill deterioration associated with their age. (addressed mostly in the conversation on this thread) 2) they are at far higher risk of injury. and from what I can tell (though I have not done any formal analysis) the first option and the second option each take up around 50% of the cases where the RB doesnt perform. so the greater risk of injury is something none of us can quantify but the risk is there whether you want to believe it or not. Personally I think if the dude stays healthy the sweet spot to draft him is on the turn between round 1 and 2. but taking the health thing into account there is no doubt he should be a second round pick (in my opinion) Normally I'd discount even more than this and say he should be a third round pick, but Henry has been overall fairly durable as a RB, so I'm giving him a bit of latitude on that. Either way, if I was in a redraft league, I would not be taking him in round 1 and that likely means he wont be on my team. I am ok with this. I love Henry, but at this age (moreso than any other age) it is important not to overpay for a player who fits into this category. and I think a lot of people will overpay for Henry this year.

I was about to say that its rare that any TE is productive in their rookie year. it happens. but the number of cases in the history of the NFL where it did I can probably count on one hand. to that end, I agree. hes a nice late round rookie (or free agent) buy in dynasty. but I'd be surprised if he was highly productive this year. Granted now that I said that his chances of blowing up statistically are probably a lot better. but seriously, you dont need to draft him in redraft leagues. you can put him on your watch list and if he lights it up week 1 you can pick him up on waivers for free. TE is a position people dont generally pay much attention to. so unless hes projected to be one of the top 5 or 6 TE's nobody will be paying attention.

certainly possible. but at the same time I have no info that would confirm or refute this. either way, its not really relevant to the discussion. the important thing is we dont draft him this year for fantasy football. thats the takeaway.

yeah but 80% of where he was 2 years ago is better than likely all but one or two TE's in the NFL. and he has the better QB. so I figure thats still a fair comment to say he is in decline. no shame in it. it is what it is. but we know where he was late last season what we dont know is where he is now after a few months off. I still think he will be a top 10 TE. likely even top 5. I just dont know that hes gonna be top 3. He likely will. but its not a lock like it was in past years.

he has had problems with injuries. and New York actually used him to block more than I anticipated. TE's generally dont have long careers that go much beyond the age of 31. their body takes the pounding of an O lineman and then they take some hits when they go out for passes. personally I wouldnt have used him as much in a blocking role in an attempt to preserve his health and I think that was a mistake on the part of the Giants coaching staff. but either way, its not abnormal for TE's to retire at this age.

8 games where they've averaged 6.7 per carry? wow!

well, that time is good enough that if he can run a good route and catch balls, he would be fast enough that teams may have to have a safety cover him as some LB's might not be able to. in the end, that is key because it will open things up elsewhere in the offense.

I have to agree with Kilroy......if he scores 20 TD he has a shot. but thats an awful lot of TD's to predict for anybody. no matter how good the team and the offense is. an RB has only scored 20 TD 11 times ever since the league formed.

I dont think there is any doubt he is in decline. historically there have not been a lot of TE's who put up top 5 numbers beyond the age of 31. and at his age, the only one who has put up top 10 numbers was Tony Gonzalez. Granted he may be the best of all time, so its possible he has one more elite year in him. I'm just not betting on that at his current ADP. I will let someone else take that risk

the NFL did at times too. there were some games (especially early in the year) where they played to stuff the run and dared him to throw the ball. but he turned out to be a bit better than everyone thought hed be. I fully agree the line additions via the draft should help though sometimes it takes a year for an O lineman to fully get their feet under them at the pro level. that said, if we assume that Barton is a plug and play guy (and he could potentially be) that would be a difference maker for this offense.

I wouldnt say he was over the hill. he still passed the eye test for me. but hes not quite as fast as he was the year prior. but there were definitely some nights when the line did not open much in the way of holes to run through. when the line played well, Henry performed without fail. when the line didnt perform it was hit or miss. that said, I fully realize the end is near. but the slip in rush production was more a function of the decline of the line in Tenessee than it was due to Henry.

there is usually one or two matchups each year against top defenses where he wont be all that good. but overall, I'd agree with this

agreed. he still lights up bad defenses. at worst hes a spot start. but hes one of those QB's who is a better fantasy QB than he is an actual QB I dont know that you will ever win a superbowl with him but he will always get the cowboys to the playoffs so long as the surrounding cast is decent

no offense, but coming off an ACL injury I was pretty sure he wasnt gonna be that good last year. Honestly given the situation, he was actually better than I thought hed be. I had him pegged for maybe 700 total yards. He exceeded that total. Year prior he played only 4 games due to the injury. bad luck for you I'll admit. but I do believe in his talent. I'd predict more for him if I knew his QB situation was for sure gonna be average or better, but that situation is likely a coin flip so its hard to predict much more than low end RB2 production. but if things fall right he could become a low end RB1 and one of the things he needs for this to happen is good QB play. but add the risks (QB, bad team and possible residual injuries that sometimes come after an ACL tear) I'd say if you get him at the price of an RB3 you wont likely be disappointed. obviously the more you pay, the less likely he lives up to expectations as those expectations rise if you draft him earlier.

well, if his ADP is that late, then I draft him as my RB3 and hes a fantastic insurance policy

I actually think Javonte williams has an outside shot at becoming an RB1 this year. last year he was coming off an ACL injury and still performed reasonably well. with the ACL fully healed I wouldnt be surprised if his performance got better this year. What I dont know is how the QB change is likely to play out. They could run the ball a whole lot more to put less pressure on their QB. but the concern of course is if the game script flips (as it may if they are a losing team) and that could hinder his production. either way I dont mind taking this kid as my RB2. I dont know where his ADP is at the moment but I suspect his price is likely reasonable.

Dak was never truly a top 5 QB. his stats were huge for about 3 or 4 years because he played in the worst division in football and racked up the stats against all those bad teams that he got to play 2x per year. lots of years I looked at strength of schedule and Dak had one of the top 3 easiest. Now that the division has at least one legit defense (philly) and Washington and New york are improved (but still bad) its not so much of a cakewalk as it was. also a couple years ago I did an analysis on here. Daks record against sub .500 teams is huge. against playoff calibre teams... not great. hes honestly a slightly above average QB who lit it up with stats against some really bad defenses.

This is kind of my thought as well. but I'm willing to keep an open mind and wait and see how camp plays out. a lot of these questions get answered in camp.

well, if you go by the follow the money theory, the money is on Moss.

he had the bones for his own fantasy football board (mostly a blog) but then never followed through on it. I visited as a courtesy when he gave me the url. I think on this board only myself and Weepaws ever visited (though maybe one or two of you also visited and never posted) I went to the site today and the board is still operating but no activity. I think his dream was to get this thing up and running but clearly he ran out of time.