Ray_T

the upside is there. and to some degree hes been a victim. when the starting QB goes down, your numbers as a WR almost never improve. but there is the recency bias, and he hasnt been super effective recently. fine by me. if hes my #4 WR I really only need him to be effective half the time (hopefully when one of my starters is on bye) but if hes effective all the time I'm totally happy with that. when your WR4 becomes a WR3 or WR2 that's a win.

and I think the third round pick is likely enough to make a 50-50 guy like him not be kept. take the free 3rd round pick and keep who you were gonna keep.

we should probably look at setting the draft order. I am going to be rather busy on the Monday/Tuesday (possibly Wednesday) so knowing where I am picking will help me to organize so I dont make you guys wait

Hollywood Brown's ADP is currently around #78 in standard leagues and #51 in PPR. ranking as the #36 WR in standard leagues and the #32 WR in PPR. this puts him as a low end WR3 or high end WR4. at that ADP I dont mind Hollywood Brown. So as WeePaws said, if you can get him as your WR4 you take him all day long. and if picking your WR3 later than most, hes a decent option but maybe not ideal (depending of course on who is left on the board)

good post. and pass catching RB's usually get scarce once you get into round 3. In my opinion if you can get one or two premium RBs who do it all at the turn, thats a win. Especially if WR have gone early and often in the early part of the draft. while there are one (or maybe two) WR who might be around at this point in the draft I'd make the exception for, I think RB is a good call at this point. You really need a WR in the top tier if you are picking one in round 1. so for me, the answer is..... it depends on who is on the board. That said, I have found that going RB-RB or WR-WR at the turn will create a sense of urgency to grab players at that position after you make the selection, so sometimes doing something like this will turn the draft on its head and start a run at the position (which you likely dont care about if you just picked 2) but may significantly alter the draft strategy others have to use. I know the advantage may be psychological mostly but the problem with that is that you then likely feel like you NEED to take a WR in your next pick. So to some degree, you are also making yourself a bit more predictable. sometimes that matters, sometimes it doesnt.

I never thought he was. at various points I thought he was a WR2 or a top end WR3

That's the thing. you can over think it til the cows come home (to coin a phrase) generally I will go a round earlier than the ADP if I like a guy. in a keeper/dynasty format maybe 2 rounds if I think I'll be the beneficiary for some years. but in redraft there are not many scenarios where you are going 2+ rounds earlier than the ADP where it actually works out. so this rule prevents me from going too far off the rails. I dont mind going a round early on a guy I really like. beyond that I'm likely hurting my own team by doing it. and many years where I have the patience to wait, I end up with the player I wanted a round later anyhow and feel like I made out like a bandit. so it's all a matter of patience and perspective. make a game plan, and stick to it. Especially if you start drinking. you cant stray from the game plan if booze is involved. your draft will fall apart quickly if that comes to pass

fair point. and maybe I'm being a little harsh. Though Washington has been a train wreck for some time. its hard to get the stench of that off of the organization. it actually takes time to change the culture. but I guess we will see. I appreciate your comments. yeah, a change of scenery for both could be good. Though it sounds like San Fran is not going to make this an easy process.

hey I was just putting candidates up based on ADP. its the only info we have at this point. while all of these guys I like at their ADP I also realize that the ADP will move closer to reality as we get closer to draft day. but if you have to draft tomorrow, the ADP numbers is likely your best info in terms of when to draft a player you like. my rule of thumb is to draft the guy one round sooner than his ADP if you feel you NEED to have the player and dont want to overpay by too much. you may have your own way of handling it, but thats how I do it. I have found that when I overpay by too much I almost always end up regretting it. This rule of thumb keeps me from going off the rails too badly.

good info. I thank you for that! but his high efficiency is one of those things that a good coaching staff should look at and conclude they need to involve him more in the short pass game. whether that actually happens (or not) remains to be seen, but it wouldnt surprise me if he got more looks this year.

you say tomato I say Tomahto. lol

I suspect this is probably the case. My gut tells me Deva Diggs wont be the #1 WR here.

maybe. sometimes it takes a while to purge the old culture haha but I guess we will see soon enough.

at this point its the best we got. the rankings of various sources and ADP reports. that said, if you've done your homework on a player and you feel strongly maybe you draft that player early. but my thought is that if you see a 4th round ADP on Jacobs and you REALLY wanna get him, you take him in round 3. while it may depend where in the round you are drafting, In most cases round 2 is too early. my best quote for this sort of thing..... a Honda Civic may be a good car, but you dont pay the price of a cadillac for that Honda Civic even if its the last car on the lot. Drafting him in round 2 is the fantasy version of paying the price of a cadillac for that Honda civic. you're getting a nice player but the upside is eaten up by the draft position and that upside is what wins you drafts.

yeah, but the team might be one of the worst run franchises in the league. They will find a way to meddle and mess it up. if they succeed it will be despite the inept management. not because of it.

well, the RB numbers most often mirror what the team is doing. if the team is winning in the 2nd half, Jacobs will get a lot more work against what is often a tired defense. Raiders were quite often playing from behind, so he did not have this advantage last year. In his new home, I see a far more favourable outcome. even if his YPC isnt what it was last year.

he is..... if the team is smart enough to use him in this way. they should, but its not by any means a slam dunk. some coaches dont necessarily see things the way we do hahaha

yeah, with McCarthy you are likely looking at 1 full year minimum until hes ready to start and be effective at the position. he may start this year (likely by mid season) but I doubt hes overly effective as a rookie. I could be wrong here. but if I was a betting man, it wont be until year 2 or 3 that hes ready to really be a player.

hard to say with diggs. last half of the year he wasnt very good. as I mentioned in the bills thread, I'm not sure if he played hurt or if he was pouting and not performing to his usual level, or if hes just gotten older and regressed some. but his addition really takes away the certainty we had with some of the houston players for fantasy.

fair comments. your projections are a little more pessimistic than mine are. I was projecting 4000-4100 yards passing My rationale: Diggs was really a non factor in most of the second half of the year. not sure if he was playing injured or disgruntled and just not trying or what the deal was, but I think the dropoff due to losing him is not going to be as great as what people are thinking. but its still there and will be a real thing. while we disagree on the size of the dropoff, we both seem to agree there will be one. and no, hes not an early QB selection in a redraft this year but hes still a QB1 for fantasy so long as Rush yards count.

bingo.

no. Washington is a train wreck. Pittsburgh a little better, but not ideal.

its hard to say if those stats happened because of him or because he was on a bad team. but yeah I get it.

there are a couple places where I think he does better. Shanny is likely the only coach in the league with the balls to bench a 1000 yard WR because he doesnt do a good enough job blocking but yes buffalo, KC, LA chargers are all places he could possibly exceed his production in San Fran, but thats likely the exception and not the rule.

I think he makes the team. There is always room for a field stretching WR who fits as a WR3 or lower. The real question is where he lands on the depth chart. of course if hes getting paid more than he should, then there is a risk of being cut to make room for another acquisition. at a one year deal worth up to 4.5 mil hes not that costly. I suspect thats WR3 money. so yeah if he sits on the bench a lot hes a candidate to be cut. but more likely he plays out the contract and doesnt get re signed. keep in mind he may be also being brought in because he has superbowl rings. they may actually want that experience in the room.