Ray_T

I"m not fully sure what to make of this yet. I think Spears definitely gets used more in the pass game. and he likely gets a few more runs so It wouldnt surprise me if he outperforms the current projection. Not sure if hes good enough to unseat Pollard but Pollard doesnt look to have the durability of Henry so this could be a legit 2 person timeshare. possibly with a 50-50 split.

you are probably right. but people will look at his playoff (which was pretty decent) and they will ignore what you just pointed out. Hes a top 10 TE. of that I have no doubt. Top 5..... maybe. but that may be pushing it. top 3? no. I'm out on that. and likely only the top 5 or 6 deserve to be drafted before round 5 or 6 so you can probably guess (within a round) where I'd draft him (if he falls that far) and we all know he wont fall that far, so that means I'm unlikely to draft him this year. and I'm ok with that.

stats always go bad in the aftermath of an ACL injury. This is one of those cases where looking at the metrics in the year after the injury wont help you a lot. the acceleration or burst isnt quite there, but moreso than that the lateral agility and ability to make sharp cuts. thats the part where the injury really affects a RB. and thats usually the last thing to return to form when returning from this injury. I wouldnt even look at last years stats other than maybe the last couple games of the year to see if we have seen improvement in the latter half of the year. you want to look at the previous year(s) when healthy. that will give you a better indicator of what hes likely to look like when healthy. that said, outside of the rookie year, the sample size is small. but the early part of 2022 looked promising prior to the injury. the real thing you want to look at is what the team is doing in the offseason. It does not look like they drafted anyone. so they seem pretty confident in what they have. and I dont see anyone on the roster who looks to be a legitimate threat to his job. Given that, I truly think the team is fully committed to Javonte (for this year at least) so he has a chance to do some things. of course how far this goes will also depend mostly on QB play and line play. Bo Nix (or Stidham) have to at least be good enough that teams will see the pass game as a legit threat. if that doesnt happen, defenses will stack the box, key on the run and force that crappy QB to beat them through the air. so in that scenario, he wont be much better than a low ranking RB2. but if the QB play is decent I can see him having a very decent year. especially if the line plays well too.

you can hope. but there will be one person in most drafts who will draft because of the name. hes probably a 2nd round pick. some will still take him in round 1 even though they likely shouldnt

Chase is actually easier to rank. his QB missed 1/3 of the season last year. so you know what it looks like if Burrow misses time. while the expectation is that Burrow is healthy the same thing applies. assuming he plays 10-12 games you project maybe a little better than last years stats(1200 yards) and assume burrow misses 2-3 games. I actually think the fftoday estimate is close to where I'd come out. if he and burrow are fully healthy, you could be looking at 1500 to 1600 yards. but the fftoday estimate of just over 1300 yard is reasonable in terms of accounting for the injury risk. so without doing a deep dive, I'd rank him in the 5-8 range overall among WR. of course Id refine this estimate as we get closer to the season. I'd probably rank him close to #8 right now and move him up as the regular season approaches if it looks like both he and Burrow are looking good (and healthy).

that said, if the starter isnt very good, sometimes an injury is a benefit to the WR haha

for WR if there is a significant risk for their starting QB to get injured I do move them down my board

they always talk up the rookies early in camp. partly to give them a little confidence and partly to say hey we did a good job drafting. and partly to create hype for the team and sell some tickets. this is a nothing burger.

oh yeah, and what do you think the odds are that Kyler Murray is healthy all year? is that factored into your rankings? for the record, that would be part of the worst case scenario for him

I'm leaning towards the 20 mark. I have him as a low end to mid range WR2. certainly hes one of those guys where if you look at end of year he could be anywhere between a WR4(worst case) and low to mid range WR1 (best case). and you should never draft that close to the best case scenario unless the low end of the spectrum is close to where the best case is. That is a situation that almost never happens with rookies. if he blows the doors off in camp I may bump him up a couple spots but that 18-20 range feels like its pretty close. That said, sometimes your rankings go a bit different once you get deeper into them but right now this is where I am at.

well, that makes it easy. I didnt even know about that

I never went back in time to count. I knew he won the July mock a couple years back and all the teams ive seen him draft looked pretty solid to me. either way, I could go on about things I like and dislike about his style but the results speak for themselves.

maybe so, but teams dont do that sort of thing with their starting QB when the they are winning. It only happens when they are losing. its really a performance thing no matter how you slice and dice it. They realized they were not gonna win any superbowls with him there, and paved the way for a Russell Wilson Exit. either way, hes pro calibre. the guy hes replacing was not. so yeah I think the WR perform better. but Wilson is no spring chicken. I'm not predicting big things. just a moderate improvement.

I dont know about financial reasons. I think it was the slow start to the season that did him in (and the previous years shitshow that was terrible for everyone) he performed adequately for fantasy. that said, it could be a system thing for Wilson. if the system is right, he can play. hard to say for sure. but I still think he an improvement on what they had last year. so thats good news for the WR in that offense

well, they both are a good bet for 1000 yards if healthy. I guess the smart money goes to whoever drops furthers in the draft. at this point that is looking like Kupp but that can change in a hurry. its early days of the preseason.

yeah, and his body of work does not compare to that of Burrow. its an overpay. but then again, Jaxonville has been overpaying people all along in free agency. might as well overpay the QB too

where is 2 live crew when you need 'em

he usually drafts a pretty good team from what I've seen in past mocks.

honestly with the guys build, and skillset hes best cast as a very good #2 WR at this point in his career. usually your #1 is a physical WR with a nice catch radius who is a coverage nightmare. Puka is smallish and super fast. if he figures out how to consistently beat the jam he could be a #1. I just dont think hes there yet. sometimes the smallish WR take an extra year or two to figure that part of the game out. I do think he gets there eventually. I just dont think its this year. I still think hes a very good #2 No shame in it. I'm just not drafting him in my top 15.

exactly my point. once again..... still dont know if he will get healthy. but if he does, he could be a draft winner if you get him on the cheap

injuries will wreck anyones season. I think fully healthy he has a shot. what I dont know is if hes fully healthy.

I love your nabers pick. That kind of upside that late in the draft. awesome. even if you dont believe in danny dimes

nice job guys. I see puka is listed ahead of the depth chart of Kupp. though at the age of 30, Kupp could still be the lead dog here. based on that I'm a bit surprised Puka went this early but I guess if you believe in someone you believe in them. unless there is news suggesting Kupp wont be the guy. I'm not aware of any but admittedly havent been paying THAT much attention during the offseason either way, it will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

I'd agree. hes good, but not THAT good. there are likely no more than 5 or 6 WR's that fit into that category

no he was right. I got my threads mixed up. chatting on too many at once and busy at work and didnt take the time to make sure I wasnt embarrassing myself. Jrokh was correct. I goofed. and unlike some people I can admit when I goof. dont hold it against me haha