Ray_T

well, in prepping for the July Mock I have some interesting ADP news. last year more RB's were drafted in round 1 than we are seeing this year (so far) only 3 in the first 10 and 5 in the first 12. This is the first year the first round was significantly tilted toward the WR that I have ever seen. I'm also seeing a lot of discrepencies between ADP and rank. not just for fftoday but for other sites too. I suspect thats because of all the player movement we have seen this last year. anyhow, it would be interesting to see if anyone else has a good take on this. comment at will.

well, its good for you. I'd take that offer too if someone made one like that to me in that situation

Thats actually very good

if you have the #1 pick and you are not allowed to trade it, CMC needs to be who you take. if you are allowed to trade the pick, I'd at least shop it around to see what you can get. Im not 100% keen on the durability so if someone gave me a great offer for that #1 pick I'd let them take that risk. but thats all speculative. because the next question becomes.... how much is enough to make you part with the pick.

yeah, for this year at least. keeper/dynasty you obviously want the young guy. but that much is obvious to most of us.

of course

what used to make RB's the better early buy is the dropoff from the elite to the rest. significant dropoffs in the past. Even looking at the fftoday ratings.... after CMC at 274 projected fantasy points you have about 4 RB projected at 210 to 220 fantasy points and Henry at 200. after that its a slow creep down to 180 fantasy points. that decline used to be more steep and thus it made sense to grab a RB early but if you now look at the wr rankings the separation is greater for the first few and then looks fairly similar to the separation you see at RB. so the key is to get as many of those who have separated themselves as superior players as possible. all the rest are mostly interchangable from a statistical perspective. obviously our job is to find out which ones have the greatest upside or chance to break out and try to get those. but its all speculative. I'd say if you dont get a RB in the first 13-18 picks you might as well wait and go zero RB strategy

I actually dont like Taylor in the sense he seems to miss games every year. if you consider there is a lot of miles on the odometer too. people look at carries over a career, but if looking at that you should also look at college. factoring that in, I think hes had more touches than Derrick Henry. (a buddy of mine checked I'm assuming he did his math right) so that being said, not as keen on him. like the talent, not the injuries. Gibbs may also be gone, though I do like him Probably about the same as Sequon. Sequon is more of a proven commodity but I think Gibbs has a bit more upside. so its really mostly a matter of preference. I prefer Sequon, but wouldnt be unhappy if someone took him and Gibbs was sitting there for me to take.

he did better than most people do coming back from an ACL injury. I cannot deny that.

and to be clear, I also highly value workhorse backs.... so long as they can stay healthy

to be frank hes a first round pick. but not #1 for me. luckily (or unluckily)I wont need to worry about it in the July Mock. I draft #12. pretty sure he will be gone before I get a chance to even consider him.

I know. wasnt naming you by name. but if I'm gonna give you hell for this its only fair I give him hell for doing the same thing. not trying to be a jerk but I also dont need to see a lot of flames on the board. I'd prefer this stays about football and not a debate over who is to blame or who is being a jerk.

well, I use metrics. They can be very useful, but metrics are not everything. Sometimes the metrics are a read on the run game as a whole moreso than the player specifically. what complicates things is when the line isnt good and /or the starting QB misses significant time. some of these issue affected all of these RB. when this happens you need to use the eye test. That will tell you if the player is doing the things they need to do or if the run was bad due to subpar line play etc.

guys we need to chill on this. this all started with this comment that was borderline offside. I came down on someone else who criticized you on another thread for a similar action so I'm not being unfair. Lets keep this about football. everyone has a right to express an opinion. You dont need to agree with it. but we do need to be civil to those who do express theirs.

he had less than 1000 yards rushing. for his talent I consider that to be subpar for him. hes talented enough to do better. so maybe its a matter of perspective.

Polecatt-Welcome aboard. I look forward to a fun draft. Glad you are here to enjoy it with us!

Yeah I like Breece too. and I agree #2 is a bit crazy. Hes a nice talent but people are overpaying at that price. hes an RB1 for sure. but I like a little more certainty than he provides at his ADP. if Rodgers gets hurt again that pick immediately becomes a problem. to be clear I'm not predicting that, but at his age and the fact hes coming off a major injury, his continued good health is not by any means a given. and the value of all the offensive players to some degree is derived from the value they get in an Aaron Rodgers led offense. More Total yards, more TD and more plays from scrimmage due to more first downs. That touches everyone. to complicate things Breece is also returning from an injury himself and had himself a subpar year last year because of it. I dont deny he belongs in the top 10 in terms of RB rankings. Maybe even top 5. But I dont know that I'd be considering him at #2 overall.

I was surprised by that too. I dont know that I'd predict bad things for them. but I think they wont be as good as everyone thinks they will be. that said Rodgers ADP was actually pretty late. 20 among QB and 125 overall. feels like a Weepaws special haha

well, I suspect Diggs would not be the happy camper he is if Houston was planning on playing him out of the slot. hes gunning for another contract in free agency. hed be unhappy if they put him in the slot. Pretty sure we'd see a legendary hissy fit if that were to come to pass.

my point is at this adp the odds of a disappointment are a whole lot lower than they were last year because the bar is set lower with the later ADP

like I mentioned earlier. I dont think this is a desperation play. its more like they needed a field stretching WR3/4 and also wanted someone who has an experience that may be helpful. he played for a superbowl winning team. so they wanted that element in their dressing room and they got it. paid a bit extra because he provides that superbowl experience. but they were happy to do it.

excellent comment. number one rule of fantasy football. 1) Know your league-this includes scoring, rules and what your opponents like to do at the draft table. this trumps nearly every other rule because it affect everything in one way or another including how you should draft your team to maximize results. in terms of waiting, it really depends how the draft falls. you do also need to keep in mind the dynamics for RB isnt the same as the dynamics for WR because if your league starts 2 RB and its a 10 team draft, the squeeze on the position is a whole lot different than it is for a 12 team draft because in a 12 teamer there are not enough starting RB to go around to allow everyone to have a starter as their third RB. someone will need to have a backup/committee guy as their RB3. That dynamic doesnt exist in a 10 teamer as there are enough starting RB for each team to have 2 starters and one backup who are all starters on their respective teams. so the pressure on the position isnt as great. as such, you are more likely to be able to use a zero RB strategy in this scenario.

i understand. Mixons efficiency wasnt good. but when running behind a bad line its only the truly special backs who will perform in that situation. it also does not help when your starting QB goes down and you are running with a backup. if I were a Defensive Coordinator I'd be stacking the box to stop Mixon and force the backup to throw the football. I never got to watch many cincy games after the Burrow injury but it wouldnt surprise me if thats the way it went down. and given that the line wasnt that good to begin with I'm surprised Mixon did as well as he did. so I guess its a matter of perspective. do I think hes a special player. No. do I think hes good enough to provide value as a middling RB2 at a fantasy draft? Yes to be clear if you draft him as an RB1 there is a better than average chance he could disappoint and thats likely where he was drafted the Last couple years. thus, the disappointment

mixons ADP isnt that early to be frank. but for me its a combination of things. 1) when you can draft a player a couple rounds later than the year before, you are getting more value for the draft capital you are expending. so I like Mixon a lot more at this years ADP than I did at last years ADP. 2) the line in cincy has not been good the last couple years. partly due to injury but partly due to non performance of certain players and partly due to losing some starters to free agency. 3) the line in Houston is better than the line was in his old home. so its pretty easy to project a better year. dont get me wrong, I'm not by any means saying this guy is an RB1. but I am saying he provides good value for where his average draft position is. (which happens to be #49 overall and #16 among RB's on average taken early in the 5th round of PPR drafts) so as a middling RB2. I dont mind the pick.

it feels like its likely to be Dell. Though I cannot say for sure. wouldnt surprise me if they move everyone around on some plays