Ray_T

maybe. sometimes it takes a while to purge the old culture haha but I guess we will see soon enough.

at this point its the best we got. the rankings of various sources and ADP reports. that said, if you've done your homework on a player and you feel strongly maybe you draft that player early. but my thought is that if you see a 4th round ADP on Jacobs and you REALLY wanna get him, you take him in round 3. while it may depend where in the round you are drafting, In most cases round 2 is too early. my best quote for this sort of thing..... a Honda Civic may be a good car, but you dont pay the price of a cadillac for that Honda Civic even if its the last car on the lot. Drafting him in round 2 is the fantasy version of paying the price of a cadillac for that Honda civic. you're getting a nice player but the upside is eaten up by the draft position and that upside is what wins you drafts.

yeah, but the team might be one of the worst run franchises in the league. They will find a way to meddle and mess it up. if they succeed it will be despite the inept management. not because of it.

well, the RB numbers most often mirror what the team is doing. if the team is winning in the 2nd half, Jacobs will get a lot more work against what is often a tired defense. Raiders were quite often playing from behind, so he did not have this advantage last year. In his new home, I see a far more favourable outcome. even if his YPC isnt what it was last year.

he is..... if the team is smart enough to use him in this way. they should, but its not by any means a slam dunk. some coaches dont necessarily see things the way we do hahaha

yeah, with McCarthy you are likely looking at 1 full year minimum until hes ready to start and be effective at the position. he may start this year (likely by mid season) but I doubt hes overly effective as a rookie. I could be wrong here. but if I was a betting man, it wont be until year 2 or 3 that hes ready to really be a player.

hard to say with diggs. last half of the year he wasnt very good. as I mentioned in the bills thread, I'm not sure if he played hurt or if he was pouting and not performing to his usual level, or if hes just gotten older and regressed some. but his addition really takes away the certainty we had with some of the houston players for fantasy.

fair comments. your projections are a little more pessimistic than mine are. I was projecting 4000-4100 yards passing My rationale: Diggs was really a non factor in most of the second half of the year. not sure if he was playing injured or disgruntled and just not trying or what the deal was, but I think the dropoff due to losing him is not going to be as great as what people are thinking. but its still there and will be a real thing. while we disagree on the size of the dropoff, we both seem to agree there will be one. and no, hes not an early QB selection in a redraft this year but hes still a QB1 for fantasy so long as Rush yards count.

bingo.

no. Washington is a train wreck. Pittsburgh a little better, but not ideal.

its hard to say if those stats happened because of him or because he was on a bad team. but yeah I get it.

there are a couple places where I think he does better. Shanny is likely the only coach in the league with the balls to bench a 1000 yard WR because he doesnt do a good enough job blocking but yes buffalo, KC, LA chargers are all places he could possibly exceed his production in San Fran, but thats likely the exception and not the rule.

I think he makes the team. There is always room for a field stretching WR who fits as a WR3 or lower. The real question is where he lands on the depth chart. of course if hes getting paid more than he should, then there is a risk of being cut to make room for another acquisition. at a one year deal worth up to 4.5 mil hes not that costly. I suspect thats WR3 money. so yeah if he sits on the bench a lot hes a candidate to be cut. but more likely he plays out the contract and doesnt get re signed. keep in mind he may be also being brought in because he has superbowl rings. they may actually want that experience in the room.

I dont disagree

now you have my projection. not that it matters. even if my projections are higher, the bottom line is that hes not really draftable in any format unless you are looking at 20 team leagues or something of the like

if those are the likely destinations, then yes. sure he might make more money in the short run, but the inferior offense will hurt his numbers and hurt him financially when its time to re-sign

no, historically he has gotten between 400 and 600 yards. and in the new home they will try hard to utilize him as an asset. I figure 450 -500 total yards wth about half of that coming on longer TD throws. so lets estimate 3-5 TD these numbers are roughly in line with career averages

probably. unless they get a comparable WR in return.

yeah but there are positives too. I think he was among the leaders in Yards after first contact though I have not verified that. I'm going strictly from memory so if I'm wrong, someone correct me.

bingo. I predict low catches but high TD (at least relative to the # of catches) but no, not fantasy relevant. and likely not close either.

yeah, hes only 26 still. guy has been fairly durable throughout his career. I dont anticipate that he will be the #1 back in football ever again, but I think his numbers will improve moderately in Green Bay just because its a better team so he will get more red zone opportunities. line is better too, so YPC may go up a bit but his usage should remain about the same

someone almost always does.

if dropping Jacobs allows you to spend $2 per player instead of one, I question whether Jacobs should then be dropped. in the end, its not helping a ton on the back end. I dont know that a 2 dollar player is a substantial enough improvement on a $1 player to make this move worth your while. That said, it could be a know your league thing, and nobody here knows your league like you do. my 2 cents. as for CMC, if you can trade him (or any player) for dollars, thats potentially a game changer and wed need to look at everything again. but assuming that's not the case, he may be a player who is easier to move after the protection deadline. then you could trade him for a number of assets without auction dollar consideration. before the draft thats a much harder move to make and in most cases the return wont be as good.

no, he likely does have football left in him, but at an ADP in the 10th round I'd suggest you dont pick him in round 4. if you like him it is better to wait until at least round 8 before pulling the trigger. no point paying the price of a 4th when you can have him in the 8th or later.

ok to answer your question first I'm gonna put up the likely candidates (based on ADP) 1) Etienne (ADP 45)- if he falls to you. I suspect he goes early. 2) Pacheco (ADP 44)-not sexy but a solid player. just not 100% suited to PPR play. it did look like they are running a few more routes with him later in the year. so his receiving numbers may bump up a bit this year and that could be enough to make him a reasonable value pick at this point in the draft. 3) Jacobs (adp 54)-better team, better situation. but hes got a lower floor and higher ceiling than he had last year. 4) Mixon (ADP 61)-Hou- Mixon was running behind what might have been one of the weaker lines. part of this was due to injuries on the line. either way, hes running in a better situation. I expect a bounceback year. 5 James Cook ADP 60-might be a sneaky good pick. guy looks talented enough, but is stuck in an offense that likes to throw- a lot. but given that all the WR's have departed they may lean on the run early in the season until the new WR's develop a chemistry with Josh Allen. 6. Rachaad White (adp 63)-probably the least sexy pick here. but he catches a lot of footballs. you could do worse 7. Kenneth Walker (ADP 72)-I actually love this guy, but noting the coaching change its not a lock that he gets the volume hes had in the past 8 Kamara (ADP 75)-guy is a douche, but presents decent value in PPR leagues at this ADP. Not sure you wanna take him in round 4 but its an option 9 Naj Harris ADP 86-this rises if they announce hes for sure going to be the starter on day 1 of the regular season) and I like that he is playing for a contract. This is most likely the top candidates if you are looking in round 4 for a RB in PPR. there are others these are the ones you are most likely to have left.