Only 4 Running Backs will have more TD's than T.O.

[ggroovy17 0]

You figure T.O. will get 12-15 TD's this season with Bledsoe getting him the ball that will be more than all of the running backs in the league except Alexander, LT, LJ, and Tiki. Although, people will still draft Portis, Rudi, Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson ahead of him. I don't get it.

[Sweetness_34 0]

Simple. Because there will be WRs in the 4th, 5th, 6th and maybe even later rounds who will get 6-10 TDs, something none of the RBs in those rounds will get unless you get really lucky

[mikeso 0]

Simple. Because there will be WRs in the 4th, 5th, 6th and maybe even later rounds who will get 6-10 TDs, something none of the RBs in those rounds will get unless you get really lucky

 

perectly said

[kristv 0]

Simple. Because there will be WRs in the 4th, 5th, 6th and maybe even later rounds who will get 6-10 TDs, something none of the RBs in those rounds will get unless you get really lucky

 

Exactly. There are 32 starting RB's in the league. There are 64 starting WR's (and on some teams, even the 3rd WR sees quite a bit of action). This makes good, starting RB's more of a premium in fantasy football.

[Nichee 0]

Exactly. There are 32 starting RB's in the league. There are 64 starting WR's (and on some teams, even the 3rd WR sees quite a bit of action). This makes good, starting RB's more of a premium in fantasy football.

 

I have a different strategy and I’ve been successful with it. In a league that starts 2 RB and 3 WR, I always grab 1 RB and 2 WRs in the first 3 rounds.

 

If I have a high pick, it’ll be RB-WR-WR. If I have a low pick, I may go WR first, but it will still be 1 RB and 2 WRs after three rounds.

 

There may be 64 starting WRs but they aren’t fantasy-starting worthy. I figure there are about 10 fantastic WRs and up to 20-25 “starters.” Throw in a couple of question marks and then you have WRs 35-64, which are pretty much garbage. You might get lucky with one of these guys, but it’ll probably be a 1 out of every 3 weeks kinda thing.

 

Meanwhile, in round 4 or even 5, I can get a No. 2 RB who is somewhere near the No. 20 ranking. According to Sportsline’s early rankings, you’re looking at someone like Corey Dillon, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Willie Parker, or Deshaun Foster.

 

By doing this, I’ll have a quality RB early, 2 WRs (probably 2 top of the top 5 or 6 WRs) and one of the guys above as a No. 2 RB.

 

I’ll roll with that.

[listen2me 23 1,576]

You figure T.O. will get 12-15 TD's this season with Bledsoe getting him the ball that will be more than all of the running backs in the league except Alexander, LT, LJ, and Tiki. Although, people will still draft Portis, Rudi, Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson ahead of him. I don't get it.

 

Is this a serious post on this ForeArm?

[football_scooter 0]

I have a different strategy and I’ve been successful with it. In a league that starts 2 RB and 3 WR, I always grab 1 RB and 2 WRs in the first 3 rounds.

 

If I have a high pick, it’ll be RB-WR-WR. If I have a low pick, I may go WR first, but it will still be 1 RB and 2 WRs after three rounds.

 

There may be 64 starting WRs but they aren’t fantasy-starting worthy. I figure there are about 10 fantastic WRs and up to 20-25 “starters.” Throw in a couple of question marks and then you have WRs 35-64, which are pretty much garbage. You might get lucky with one of these guys, but it’ll probably be a 1 out of every 3 weeks kinda thing.

 

Meanwhile, in round 4 or even 5, I can get a No. 2 RB who is somewhere near the No. 20 ranking. According to Sportsline’s early rankings, you’re looking at someone like Corey Dillon, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Willie Parker, or Deshaun Foster.

 

By doing this, I’ll have a quality RB early, 2 WRs (probably 2 top of the top 5 or 6 WRs) and one of the guys above as a No. 2 RB.

 

I’ll roll with that.

 

But your RB3, who you're counting on for at least 2 of 13 regular games, is going to be the absolute suck.

 

And since your RB2 is hardly going to be a lock for health or performance (Foster/KJones/JJones/Dillon) you're going to be even more dependant on that RB3.

 

Oh, and Willie Parker will be taken much higher than he should FWIW.

 

I disagree that this is a viable strategy - I've played in this same format for years, and my most successfull seasons were when I took RB-RB-RB and RB-RB-WR-RB.

 

Taking RB-WR-WR-RB means that the guy who should have been your RB3 is now your RB2, and your RB4, who is typically bench fodder-with-upside is now being counted on as a RB3, where you'll actually need to use him as much as half the season.

 

RBs are not only the least available commodity, but also the most often injured - there's good reason that the RB is the elite position of the FFB world.

[lennie75 0]

Not to mention the fact that there are probably only 10-15 backs that don't share carries. And on top of that there are only 5 backs or so who you can count on solid #'s each week.

[xxx 0]

Only 4 Running Backs will have more TD's than T.O., 12-15 TD's

 

You answered your own question with this statement. If you realize how scarce starting RBs are, whats the question?

[PastorOfMuppets 0]

Last year I had the 10th pick in a 10 team redraft snake. Most of the usual suspect top tier RB's were long gone by the time I picked. I opted for a totally against the grain strategy, and selected RMoss at 1.10, and T.O. at 2.01. The picks drew a few interesting comments, but, I surmised that as far as TD's go, those 2 were the most prolific players available (besides QB's, whom I refuse to draft in the top 5 rounds).

 

The draft proceeded pretty much by chalk, and by the time I was up again, I had both Caddy and Westbrook available, so I pounced. Double dipping on the Eagles Offense concerned me a bit, but, I figured they were explosive enough to give adequate love to both of my picks.

 

I was lucky enough to snag LJ in round 5, which saved my season. Moss and T.O. both let me down, but WW gems like KCurtis and Jurevecious helped me out. I limped into the playoffs at 7-6, and lost by a mere 2 points in round 1.

 

My point is this ... in my league, we give 1 ppr, and at the slot I drafted from, T.O. and Moss looked to be golden. In hindsight, I would've adapted the same strategy, but, it would've been SSmith and say someone like Marvin or CJohnson.

 

In a 10 team league, this strategy can work ... as good RB depth can be had later on. The name of the game is points scored, and you need to draft accordingly.

 

I agree with the OP in his assertion, and, if I'm slotted similarly this year, I'll do the same.

[lennie75 0]

Last year I had the 10th pick in a 10 team redraft snake. Most of the usual suspect top tier RB's were long gone by the time I picked. I opted for a totally against the grain strategy, and selected RMoss at 1.10, and T.O. at 2.01. The picks drew a few interesting comments, but, I surmised that as far as TD's go, those 2 were the most prolific players available (besides QB's, whom I refuse to draft in the top 5 rounds).

 

The draft proceeded pretty much by chalk, and by the time I was up again, I had both Caddy and Westbrook available, so I pounced. Double dipping on the Eagles Offense concerned me a bit, but, I figured they were explosive enough to give adequate love to both of my picks.

 

I was lucky enough to snag LJ in round 5, which saved my season. Moss and T.O. both let me down, but WW gems like KCurtis and Jurevecious helped me out. I limped into the playoffs at 7-6, and lost by a mere 2 points in round 1.

 

My point is this ... in my league, we give 1 ppr, and at the slot I drafted from, T.O. and Moss looked to be golden. In hindsight, I would've adapted the same strategy, but, it would've been SSmith and say someone like Marvin or CJohnson.

 

In a 10 team league, this strategy can work ... as good RB depth can be had later on. The name of the game is points scored, and you need to draft accordingly.

 

I agree with the OP in his assertion, and, if I'm slotted similarly this year, I'll do the same.

 

I can agree with you also. Last year I picked 12th and 13th so I picked up T.O and T. Holt. But, as you said those were the best available players. I think a lot has to do with where you pick in the order. I ended up with L. Jordan, S. Jackson and t. Jones. Not too bad...I lost in the Super Bowl.

[Nichee 0]

I disagree that this is a viable strategy - I've played in this same format for years, and my most successfull seasons were when I took RB-RB-RB and RB-RB-WR-RB.

 

It's worked out pretty well for me as I've been the No. 1 seed in the playoffs the last two years (didn't win it all though, eerr!) so, yes, it can be viable.

 

I plan on doing it again this year. But I'm not married to it. If I'm picking late and there are 2 backs that I really like, I'll take them. (Looking at the board as of today, I don't see that happening)

 

The RB-WR-WR has worked for me but I'll be flexible and adjust on the fly. To limit yourself to one method, though, sounds like taking options away from yourself.

[football_scooter 0]

The RB-WR-WR has worked for me but I'll be flexible and adjust on the fly. To limit yourself to one method, though, sounds like taking options away from yourself.

 

Oh, agreed completely...I typically do VBD, so I keep myself flexible. In a league where I picked 11th of 12 last year, I took RMoss-JJones and then managed to snag Caddy & RBrown in the 4th and 7th rounds (it was IDP, so they slid a bit).

 

Moss & JJones, as projected, were the best picks available. Needless to say, they both let me down, but had he not I think I would have been able to make it past round 1 of the playoffs.

 

Each to his own, and certainly it's possible to have success going RB-WR-WR, but in my humble opinion, you are taking a huge gamble that a SJax, Caddy or RBrown will be there. I see last season as something of an anomoly in that there were several rookie RBs with starting positions, so it was a better bet that going RB-WR-WR could then net you a quality RB2.

 

I think that is the exception rather than the rule - far more typically in a competitive league year to year you'll end up with either a GL back or a RBBC guy as your RB2 while watching viable RBs fly off the board between your 3rd and 4th picks.

 

Yes, I know that people will also make the argument that RBs will get hurt and you can grab their backups, but this is hardly a guarentee, and in a competitive league, you better hope you have WW priority when that happens because there will be a mad rush to grab that suddenly starting RB. Good luck with that...

 

In my earlybird draft started in Feb, I took LT2 => Owens => Westbrook, so I too am flexible and wouldn't rule out taking WRs early...but 2 of my 1st 3 picks will be RBs this year, for certain.

[toofunny 0]

Oh, agreed completely...I typically do VBD, so I keep myself flexible. In a league where I picked 11th of 12 last year, I took RMoss-JJones and then managed to snag Caddy & RBrown in the 4th and 7th rounds (it was IDP, so they slid a bit).

 

Moss & JJones, as projected, were the best picks available. Needless to say, they both let me down, but had he not I think I would have been able to make it past round 1 of the playoffs.

 

Each to his own, and certainly it's possible to have success going RB-WR-WR, but in my humble opinion, you are taking a huge gamble that a SJax, Caddy or RBrown will be there. I see last season as something of an anomoly in that there were several rookie RBs with starting positions, so it was a better bet that going RB-WR-WR could then net you a quality RB2.

 

I think that is the exception rather than the rule - far more typically in a competitive league year to year you'll end up with either a GL back or a RBBC guy as your RB2 while watching viable RBs fly off the board between your 3rd and 4th picks.

 

Yes, I know that people will also make the argument that RBs will get hurt and you can grab their backups, but this is hardly a guarentee, and in a competitive league, you better hope you have WW priority when that happens because there will be a mad rush to grab that suddenly starting RB. Good luck with that...

 

In my earlybird draft started in Feb, I tool LT2 => Owens => Westbrook, so I too am flexible and wouldn't rule out taking WRs early...but 2 of my 1st 3 picks will be RBs this year, for certain.

 

Exactly. The only rule to FF drafting, is there are no rules. It all depends on how people in front of you draft.

 

If Rudi slides to pick 15, regardless of who you picked first, you take him.

 

If you draft SA 1st, and on the turn no WR has been taken, but 19 RBs have, I like to double up on the 2 best WRs in the league. You can't argue with SA, and two of (SS, Holt, CJ, Fitz, Moss, Harrison, TO). Then get a Dunn/Taylor at the next turn.

 

People tend to reach to get that "always draft 2 RBs first" rule. If 17-18 RBs have been taken, no way I take RB 19 at pick 2.10. I can get RB 23 at pick 4.10.

[PastorOfMuppets 0]

It's worked out pretty well for me as I've been the No. 1 seed in the playoffs the last two years (didn't win it all though, eerr!) so, yes, it can be viable.

 

I plan on doing it again this year. But I'm not married to it. If I'm picking late and there are 2 backs that I really like, I'll take them. (Looking at the board as of today, I don't see that happening)

 

The RB-WR-WR has worked for me but I'll be flexible and adjust on the fly. To limit yourself to one method, though, sounds like taking options away from yourself.

 

Agreed that aopting a myopic draft strategy can seriously hinder one's productivity. I play in a few leagues, and it's been a long held belief that stocking up on RB's is fantasy "gospel" ... going against the grain, or upsetting the draft apple cart can be advantageous, as long as one remembers that it's not the draft strategy that ultimately prevails, but rather the player's productivity.

 

Case in point, referencing my previous post ... last year I could've drafted LJordan and SJax at the turn, and still would've had SSmith and SMoss/Galloway/Glenn available to me. My lineup would've been: Palmer, Jordan, SJax, SSmith, SMoss (I would've picked him), Cooley, Rackers, Jax "D", and LJ as my flex. That lineup could have gone undefeated ... but, hindsight is always 20/20.

 

Or, if I had a crystal ball, I would've taken SSmith and CJohnson at the turn ... and still have had Westy, Caddy and LJ ... not too shabby either.

 

If my pick is below number 6 this year, I'll look to go elite WR again with my first pick. I see it as: SAlex, LJ, LT, Portis, Tiki, Edge ... after that, it's wide open, and one can even make the case that SJax or LJordan could be more prolific this year than Edge in Arizona.

 

Who knows what can happen on draft night ... but, if I can't grab one of my predetermined "stud" RB's, than I'll adjust on the fly, and look to draft the most explosive player available.

[ellisonb11 0]

as others said....starting rbs are hard to find, and get much more touches than wrs... plus if u want to take TO in the first round, i would expect a atleast 4 games to be missed....

[lennie75 0]

I think it depends on how your other players in the league draft if you go WR-WR in a 12 team league...and all the others draft RB-RB. You are screwed. You will have the 24th best RB and they will have Chad Johnson, S. Smith, t. Holt and others to choose from...who could actually be better than the two WR's you picked. I think to limit yourself to some theory is silly. Just pick the best player combined with the available players remaining.

[PastorOfMuppets 0]

... plus if u want to take TO in the first round, i would expect a atleast 4 games to be missed....

 

 

... same can be said for: Fred Taylor, CBrown, PHolmes, Duece Mac, CDillon, Caddy, Westbrook, DDavis, CMart, JJones, AGreen, JLewis, DFoster/SDavis, DStaley ... all missed games last year, some lost significant time. And, I'd say outside of Holmes, I would've drafted TO over any of them. His upside (was having a great year) is incredible.

[Raider 84 29]

TO

 

He is the only player in the NFL I root for to get hurt. I know thats not very nice, but at least Im honest.

[SoloMatisse 0]

Im not sure youre willing to buy this, but Ill make the case anyway. For as long as Bill Parcells has been coaching, he's never had a WR catch more than 10TDs in a season. He's coached alot of seasons. The highest # of TDs was by Keyshawn with the Jets....10. Coincidence? Accident? Who knows. We know he's had a history of flexibilty regarding his offensive philosophy. I think he prefers smashmouth, but he's shown with the Pats that he can air it out with the best of them. I dont think he'll need to do that with this Dallas club. This should be a strong D unit and strong rushing O, so Im not sure exactly how much Parcells will need to lean on TO like Owens has been utilitzed in the past. Expecting 12-15TDs from a WR new to a run first O under a coach who's never had a 11 TD WR is reaching, imo. It would be officially unprecedented. By go ahead and pass on all those RBs who wont have 12 TDs. Last year Mike Anderson had 12 and who saw that coming. And Corey Dillon?......twelve and he seemingly never played. RBs youre not thinking about will get twelve and Owens will probably have 8 or 9. jmho.

[PastorOfMuppets 0]

Im not sure youre willing to buy this, but Ill make the case anyway. For as long as Bill Parcells has been coaching, he's never had a WR catch more than 10TDs in a season. He's coached alot of seasons. The highest # of TDs was by Keyshawn with the Jets....10. Coincidence? Accident? Who knows. We know he's had a history of flexibilty regarding his offensive philosophy. I think he prefers smashmouth, but he's shown with the Pats that he can air it out with the best of them. I dont think he'll need to do that with this Dallas club. This should be a strong D unit and strong rushing O, so Im not sure exactly how much Parcells will need to lean on TO like Owens has been utilitzed in the past. Expecting 12-15TDs from a WR new to a run first O under a coach who's never had a 11 TD WR is reaching, imo. It would be officially unprecedented. By go ahead and pass on all those RBs who wont have 12 TDs. Last year Mike Anderson had 12 and who saw that coming. And Corey Dillon?......twelve and he seemingly never played. RBs youre not thinking about will get twelve and Owens will probably have 8 or 9. jmho.

 

 

Good points you bring up, but ... remember that Charlie Weiss was the O-Coordinator for all but 3 of those seasons, and we know how much Weiss loves to spread the wealth. Case in point can also be made that Parcells has never had such a complete receiver at his disposal, like T.O. The guy finds the End Zone as well as any WR out there. He'll get his.

 

And as far as Anderson and Dillon are concerned, in my leagues, which are PPR, I wouldn't touch them ... or Rudi or JLewis ... T.O., or any other elite WR is more valuable at that point in the draft, as far as I'm (and my league scoring) concerned.

[Jackson Biggs 0]

tiki won't get 12-15 TDs, he never does. LJ, SA, LT, rudi, and sjax will.

[Raider 84 29]

DeAngelo Williams 15 tds if he lands in Indy or Denver.

[kristv 0]

I think it really depends on how the rest of your league drafts as well. I am in a 12-man league, and I can guarantee that just about every guy in my league will draft a RB in the first round, and at least 2/3 of them will take another RB in the second round. That wipes out just about all of the top talent at RB, and doesn't leave much else besides the dreaded RBBC players. There are always WR's that elevate their play in the current season and if you do your homework, you will be able to grab those WR's in the middle rounds and laugh your way to the playoffs. I do it every year, and it seems to work for me. Going after a 'safe' pick like TO in the first or second round is folly IMO. I purposely did not pick TO last year when I had the chance (both first and second round) because I had a gut feeling his season was going to implode. Same with Moss. Instead, I had Edge as my keeper from the previous year, picked up Jordan and Chad Johnson. Worked out very well for me. I made it into the playoffs and was barely beaten because I played the wrong QB that week (had Favre and Brunell, and sure enough, Favre let me down and Brunell would have won it for me ).

 

RB's are the most consistent point scorers in any format. They touch the ball more times than any WR, and are even more valuable in points per reception leagues. To take any WR in the first/second round, who could give you zilch one week and 25 points the next instead of a RB who could give you 15-20 points every week doesn't make sense.

[Phurfur 70]

Simple. Because there will be WRs in the 4th, 5th, 6th and maybe even later rounds who will get 6-10 TDs, something none of the RBs in those rounds will get unless you get really lucky

 

Yes it is called a "Value Based Draft"

[Parja 0]

Meanwhile, in round 4 or even 5, I can get a No. 2 RB who is somewhere near the No. 20 ranking. According to Sportsline’s early rankings, you’re looking at someone like Corey Dillon, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Willie Parker, or Deshaun Foster.

 

Huh? Are we talking a 6-team league here or something? Those guys should all be gone well before the 4th round.