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unckeyherb

why are Caddy and Ronnie Brown ranked so high?

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This might be a stupid question, but the reason I ask is this...

 

Last year in my league, Caddy and Ronnie were ranked 19th and 24th RB, respectively.

Behind guys like Deshaun Foster, Julius Jones, Chris Brown, Tatum Bell, Brian Westbrook, Dominic Davis and Willis Mcgahee. Some of these guys situations have changed, some haven't. I understand Ronnie now has no Ricky to steal carries, but he also has not shown that he can carry the load for more than 4 games. Caddy blew up in the beggining but faltered with some health issues.

 

My point is that these guys are in no way more proven than those listed above. McGahee, Davis and Westbrook are all guys that have had very good seasons, with no one currently contending for their jobs. McGahee's team is a big ? but it was that way last year-not much of a change. Davis' team has improved its line, and showed that they want him to be their guy by passing on Bush. Westbrook is not a typical RB but he puts up consistent points every week. I guess I am just wondering how both these guys, with 1 year under their belts, are ranked as high as they are? I have seen mocks where they go as early as 8-9. :argue:

 

Feel free to bash............now.

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1st year RB typically hit the rookie "wall" and tail off toward the end of the year due to the extended schedule, less weeks off, and overall more physical nature of the NFL game. McGehee (and Julius Jones) were overrated to a certain extent because they both came in about the 1/2 way point of their first season and were both fresh. So I believe their numbers were skewed by this and why they went too high the following season. Caddy and Ronnie are different. These guys are both on run oriented offenses, both played most of a full season, and both have fairly good offensive units (although I give Caddy the edge because the Miami O-line may not be what the Tampa line is). Both of these guys are probably looking at 300 carry seasons, which will put them as top 10 backs when said and done.

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1st year RB typically hit the rookie "wall" and tail off toward the end of the year due to the extended schedule, less weeks off, and overall more physical nature of the NFL game. McGehee (and Julius Jones) were overrated to a certain extent because they both came in about the 1/2 way point of their first season and were both fresh. So I believe their numbers were skewed by this and why they went too high the following season. Caddy and Ronnie are different. These guys are both on run oriented offenses, both played most of a full season, and both have fairly good offensive units (although I give Caddy the edge because the Miami O-line may not be what the Tampa line is). Both of these guys are probably looking at 300 carry seasons, which will put them as top 10 backs when said and done.

 

RB spent the 2nd half of the season watching RW tear it up, and finished the season w/ only 207 carries. He only went over 20 carries 3 times last season (two of those in the first 4 weeks when RW was suspended), and also had 4 weeks where he didn't break 10 touches. So there is still no more reason to believe he can handle a 300+ carry workload.

 

Caddy, on the other hand, at least had 290 carries, but 88 came in the first three weeks, which was then followed by a week where he had 11 carries before being injured and missing 3 weeks (including bye week). He then also proceeded to not break 20 carries for the next 4 weeks, 3 of which he didn't break 15 carries. Granted, he had 6 great games where he went over 100 yds (three of which were 145+), but then there were 5 games where he sh!t the bed on top of the two he missed... Again, still not proving he can stand up to a full NFL schedule.

 

i wouldn't want either of these 2 guys to be my #1 back yet. let someone else follow the trend and fall into the hype machine...

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1st year RB typically hit the rookie "wall" and tail off toward the end of the year due to the extended schedule, less weeks off, and overall more physical nature of the NFL game. McGehee (and Julius Jones) were overrated to a certain extent because they both came in about the 1/2 way point of their first season and were both fresh. So I believe their numbers were skewed by this and why they went too high the following season. Caddy and Ronnie are different. These guys are both on run oriented offenses, both played most of a full season, and both have fairly good offensive units (although I give Caddy the edge because the Miami O-line may not be what the Tampa line is). Both of these guys are probably looking at 300 carry seasons, which will put them as top 10 backs when said and done.

 

 

I can't argue with Julius' hype coming from the second half of his rookie season and McGahee picking it up in the last 8 weeks in 2004.

Brown would be the complete opposite as he took a nose dive after week 8, scoring double digits only once.

Carnell on the other hand had a good beggining and end, with not a whole lot in the middle.

 

As far as the run-orientation of their teams and the amount of carries they should both be getting, I don't know how much that works in their favor.

 

Caddy had almost 300 attempts last year (290) and he certainly did not put up top 10 numbers, not to mention his lull after the first 3 weeks of 27, 24, 37 carries. Brown only had 3 games with more than 17 carries last year, which gives no indication of whether he can handle 25-30 carries a game. I don't know, I guess I'm just being pessimistic about 'em.

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Injuries are the part nobody can factor in. Both these guys, Brown and Caddy, are in incredible shape physically and both now know what's expected of them. 20 touches a game for both isn't out of the question, which would put them on pace for 300+, since neither has any competition to speak of and both will see some 3rd down time. Every year 2-3 backs make the jump from #2 RB (or lower) to top tier status. Last year you could argue that Stephen Jackson and Lamont Jordan were those guys, this year I think it's the former Auburn guys.

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I understand the point of those who say they want a proven Rb w/ their 1st rd pick. There are countless people on here who post that they wont draft people "until they show they can carry the load" or who have yet to have a legitimate stud season.

 

But I dont agree with it. Every great FF player had to have their 1st big time season at some point. And Brown and Caddy are prime candidates this year. In this day and age of RBBC they will both be true feature RB's and they obviously have the talent as both were top 5 picks in the real NFL draft.

 

Sure you can "play it safe" and only take guys who are already proven but those guys can disappoint just like anyone else. All we(all FF players) are doing is making educated guesses here.

 

So, if you dont feel comfortable not drafting a young RB then dont do it. Take a "proven" veteran instead. But realize that you are just as much of a trend follower as those of us who are willing to take a chance on the Rb's who are hyped to breakout this year.

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I understand the point of those who say they want a proven Rb w/ their 1st rd pick. There are countless people on here who post that they wont draft people "until they show they can carry the load" or who have yet to have a legitimate stud season.

 

But I dont agree with it. Every great FF player had to have their 1st big time season at some point. And Brown and Caddy are prime candidates this year. In this day and age of RBBC they will both be true feature RB's and they obviously have the talent as both were top 5 picks in the real NFL draft.

 

Sure you can "play it safe" and only take guys who are already proven but those guys can disappoint just like anyone else. All we(all FF players) are doing is making educated guesses here.

 

So, if you dont feel comfortable not drafting a young RB then dont do it. Take a "proven" veteran instead. But realize that you are just as much of a trend follower as those of us who are willing to take a chance on the Rb's who are hyped to breakout this year.

 

so i'm taking it you drafted either KJ, JJ, or McGayhe last year and didn't learn...

 

personally, i'm not saying i wouldn't draft either of these guys. But i do know they are not going to be available where i'd want to draft them. the 11th RB spot is the highest i have either of these guys ranked right now, and i probably wouldn't draft them there because at that point i may go WR and pick up whoever is there in he 2nd....

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I think it depends on your scoring system on how valuable these guys are. Cadillac will catch a few more balls than Brown. I think they are probably overhyped a little but they still have a good chance at 1200 yards and 8-10 td's. I prefer Brown actually because I think he doesn't have anyone to contest with and I think he can stay healthy.

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All of it depends on your league and it's scoring system. In our league, on average, an end of the tier #2 RB (say the 24th ranked RB in 12 team league) will consistently outperform and end of the tier #1 WR (say the 12th highest rated WR). Add in the fact that we start flex which is preferrably an RB and that means RB absolutely fly off the board. On that kind of league, both Caddy and Brown are probably top 12 picks and hopeful to sneak into top 10 performers by end of year so you get good value for your pick.

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so i'm taking it you drafted either KJ, JJ, or McGayhe last year and didn't learn...

 

personally, i'm not saying i wouldn't draft either of these guys. But i do know they are not going to be available where i'd want to draft them. the 11th RB spot is the highest i have either of these guys ranked right now, and i probably wouldn't draft them there because at that point i may go WR and pick up whoever is there in he 2nd....

 

Uh . ... no. didnt have any of those guys last year. Mindless assumption.

 

How convenient of you to only use examples of players who didnt do well. And BTW I was not high on him last year but I would think that McGahee 04' season removed him from the list of "unproven."

 

Why not take it that I drafted Larry Johnson, Lamont Jordan, Fitz, or Palmer last year?

 

The point is that while there may be more inherent risk in taking unproven players, every stud player has to have a breakout year at some point.

 

Edge's and Portis' rookie years. SA's 2nd yr (1st as a starter). DD and J. Walker in 04'. Did you miss out on all of these seasons b/c you wouldnt take a chance on "unproven" players.

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I think this is a good post to snap some of us back to reality. I had KJ and JJ on one team last year and was lucky to finish middle of the pack in that league. Caddy and Brown are not as impressive this year as JJ and KJ were last year so I agree that these two are ranked a little high. I hope to pick top 7 in all my leagues to avoid this situation but if I don't who knows.....

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So, if you dont feel comfortable not drafting a young RB then dont do it. Take a "proven" veteran instead. But realize that you are just as much of a trend follower as those of us who are willing to take a chance on the Rb's who are hyped to breakout this year.

 

:huh: I am not calling anyone a trend follower or even saying that I wouldn't take one of these guys, (I took Julius with my 2nd pick last year). My question was in regards to EVERYONE ranking them so high, not just really smart guys like you that make educated guesses. just was wondering why the consensus was these guys should go top 8.

 

But I dont agree with it. Every great FF player had to have their 1st big time season at some point. And Brown and Caddy are prime candidates this year. In this day and age of RBBC they will both be true feature RB's and they obviously have the talent as both were top 5 picks in the real NFL draft.

 

That is true, every great FF player has their 1st big time season at some point. how does that apply only to these two guys? Because they were top 5 picks in the NFL? :thumbsdown:

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Why not take it that I drafted Larry Johnson, Lamont Jordan, Fitz, or Palmer last year?

 

quick. Which one of the guys you listed above is a 2nd year RB who had a good rookie year who then got major hype for drafts in his sophmore year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ok. now can you realize the comparison with KJ, JJ, McGayhe and not the four that you listed??

if not, continuing this discussion is pointless because you obviously can't see point.

 

Also, if you don't mind taking chances on unproven players because they could have a breakout season at any time, does that mean you are going to rank Barlow or Gore at the top of your draft chart?

 

Your whole point about RB and Caddy being "prime" candidates to break out because they were top5 NFL draft picks also doesn't float for me. I can probably name you more top5 NFL draft picks in the last 10 years that you WOULDN'T rank top10 in their spot (or even top20) than you could name that you WOULD...

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I look at these players ranked this high because they have great coaches and great systems. Saban, good = Brown good. Gruden good = Caddy good. Your other examples: Detroit has sucked since the beginning of time. Buffalo is bad too, but McGahee is a talent and I think can still produce, but not top 5 back numbers obviously.

 

My other point is, who the frick are you going to take ahead of them? Jamal Lewis (Never scores)? Davis (injuries, bad team)? Westbrook (injuries)? Dillon (age)? J.Jones (rbbc, injuries)? Dunn (never scores)?

 

I'm in a 14 team league, and sorry to tell you, but one both of these guys is going to be someones #1 RB, and I won't have a problem if it's me picking at the end of round one.

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My other point is, who the frick are you going to take ahead of them? Jamal Lewis (Never scores)? Davis (injuries, bad team)? Westbrook (injuries)? Dillon (age)? J.Jones (rbbc, injuries)? Dunn (never scores)?

 

I'm in a 14 team league, and sorry to tell you, but one both of these guys is going to be someones #1 RB, and I won't have a problem if it's me picking at the end of round one.

 

from another thread, here are my top 11 RBs in both PPR and non-PPR. I have both Westy and JLew ranked higher than most. But i also don't think Westy has any more injury concerns than either RB or Caddy does considering Caddy missed games last year and RB didn't carry a full load himself either...

 

PPR:

 

1) LaDainian Tomlinson

2) Larry Johnson

3) Shaun Alexander

4) Tiki Barber

5) Clinton Portis

6) Lamont Jordan

7) Brian Westbrook

8) Edgerrin James

9) Steven Jackson

10) Rudi Johnson

11) Kevin Jones

 

 

non-PPR:

 

1) Larry Johnson

2) LaDainian Tomlinson

3) Shaun Alexander

4) Clinton Portis

5) Tiki Barber

6) Rudi Johnson

7) Steven Jackson

8) Lamont Jordan

9) Edgerrin James

10) Jamal Lewis

11) Cadillac Williams

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from another thread, here are my top 11 RBs in both PPR and non-PPR. I have both Westy and JLew ranked higher than most. But i also don't think Westy has any more injury concerns than either RB or Caddy does considering Caddy missed games last year and RB didn't carry a full load himself either...

 

non-PPR:

 

1) Larry Johnson

2) LaDainian Tomlinson

3) Shaun Alexander

4) Clinton Portis

5) Tiki Barber

6) Rudi Johnson

7) Steven Jackson

8) Lamont Jordan

9) Edgerrin James

10) Jamal Lewis

11) Cadillac Williams

 

I have more of less the same top 11 (slightly different order), except I slide Jamal down to 12 or 13 and move Ronnie to 10.

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Ronnie Brown is an absolute beast....and the man is fast. hes powerful, plays in a decent offense for a coach who has been in the league one year, and has completely turned the team around, and has Miami looking like a winner. The defense in Miami has always been atleast considered solid, and there is a very good corps of WRs along with McMichael to force opposing Ds to play honest. Last season Brown didnt get goalline looks......this year, I suspect he will and that could make a large difference in his FF output. What can you say, he's a talent. Its no mystery why people like him.

 

Caddy showed last year what he can do when he's on the field. He had many solid games and alot of people obviously think that's just a glimpse of things to come. They also have a very solid coach and D that will benefit the running attack, and nice young QB and some good WRs to move the ball around to. Very similar situation as Brown's. Besides, both of these guys came out of Auburn which is in the SEC, which has an enormous history of bringing premier RBs to the NFL. Think of all the backs whove come out of the SEC in recent memory begining with Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylorat FL, Shaun Alexander at Bama, Rudi at Auburn, Jamal and Travis Henry at TN, McCallister at MSState, Dom Davis at LSU.....now Cadillac and Brown also from Auburn and Joe Addai out of LSU. Not that every single back that comes out of the SEC is an All Pro, but clearly there is a history of production from a ton of that league's RBs when they hit the NFL. That weighs in heavily, imo.

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I'm in a 10 team league and these are the two guys I want in the first two rounds. If I don't get the 1.10 and 2.01 picks, I'm going to trade for them. Of course last year I took Julius Jones and McGahee 1st and 2nd but they did get me off to a 6-1 start. Of course it helps I drafted Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Warrick Dunn, and Carson Palmer.

 

The other RBs I take later in the draft will be based on their potential and not what they've done.

 

I don't like Lamont Jordan, Steven Jackson, ... Ahman Green, Curtis Martin, Chris Brown this year.

 

edit: the backs I really like will all go in the top 6 picks and they are all proven (except you could argue Larry Johnson isn't, I guess, maybe). So I won't trade down if I'm top 6, but if I'm 7 or 8 or 9 I may trade down in the first to move up in the second to get Caddy & Brown).

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B) I am not calling anyone a trend follower or even saying that I wouldn't take one of these guys, (I took Julius with my 2nd pick last year). My question was in regards to EVERYONE ranking them so high, not just really smart guys like you that make educated guesses. just was wondering why the consensus was these guys should go top 8.

 

:huh: Pay attention now. The trend follower quote was not for you it was for the guy that said something about following trends. And I never said anything about me being really smart, I said WE are all making educated guesses when it comes to ranking players for an upcoming season. Thanks for the observation though.

 

That is true, every great FF player has their 1st big time season at some point. how does that apply only to these two guys? Because they were top 5 picks in the NFL? :argue:

 

Let's see. How does it apply? Well, if every current "proven" FF stud had a breakout season at some point and if a lot of people have these 2 guys ranked highly then it means that a lot of people think that THIS season will be the breakout season for these 2 guys. Get it.

 

And it doesnt apply to "only" these two guys. Many people, including myself, have S. Jax rated above RB and Caddy and he isnt exactly proven either.

 

Look, Im not trying to be a smart ass or even go back and forth with you. You asked a question as to why people have them rated so high and I gave my opinion.

 

I see your point. I may even be guilty of being a hypocrite as I currently have RB and Caddy at 10 and 11 in my rankings. But I also can see why people have them rated higher and I believe that both are more likely than not to put up big time #'s this year.

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we had our draft last night and I was picking 10th. I passed on Caddy and Brown and when for the safer picks Steve Smith and Chad Johnson. I was later able to pick C.Dillon, K.Jones and J.Jones. I can live with those 3 rbs. I also have the first waiver pick (I will use it wisely).

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quick. Which one of the guys you listed above is a 2nd year RB who had a good rookie year who then got major hype for drafts in his sophmore year?

ok. now can you realize the comparison with KJ, JJ, McGayhe and not the four that you listed??

if not, continuing this discussion is pointless because you obviously can't see point.

 

I can see your point, or "see point" as you so eloquently stated. Can you see mine? Like I said to the other guy, I can see why you would have them rated lower but I think just as legitimate an argument can be made for them being top 10 fantasy picks this year. 8 and 9 (original post #'s) do not seem that unrealistic to me.

 

Yes, KJ and JJ are good examples based on last year but IMO R. Brown and Caddy are better than them and in better situations than those 2 were last year. Just b/c those 2 disappointed means that these 2 will?

 

Also, if you don't mind taking chances on unproven players because they could have a breakout season at any time, does that mean you are going to rank Barlow or Gore at the top of your draft chart?

 

:lol: How do Barlow and Gore have anything to do with RB and Caddy? Please let me know.

 

Your whole point about RB and Caddy being "prime" candidates to break out because they were top NFL draft picks also doesn't float for me. I can probably name you more top5 NFL draft picks in the last 10 years that you WOULDN'T rank top10 in their spot (or even top20) than you could name that you WOULD...

 

The fact that they were top 5 NFL picks means that they will get the OPPORTUNITY to have break out seasons, so IMO yes that helps support the argument that they are "prime" candidates.

 

Just like people on here continuosly say that Addai will start b/c he was a 1st rd pick. I dont neccesarily agree w/ that but I do agree with the premise.

 

Two Rb's who were selected in the top 5 of the NFL draft and enter their 2nd years as the unquestioned feature back= fantasy potential. Sorry if that doesnt "float" for you. Makes sense to me.

 

Sure, you can look back and find plenty of RB busts in NFL draft history, just like you can at every position. So what?

 

Lets look at the second year ###'s of the only 3 Rb's drafted in the top 5 since 1999. Which was the last time 2 RB's were taken in the first 5 picks.

 

Edge- 1709 yds 13 TD's rushing 594 and 5 recieving

 

RW- 1000 and 8 rushing 409 and 1 rec. (in only 10 gms)

 

LT2- 1683 yds 14 Td's rushing 489 and 1 rec.

 

Am I saying that R. Brown and Caddy will put up these ##'s? Not necesarily.

 

Do I see why a lot of people are willing to take a risk and put them in their top 8 or 9?

 

YES. :cheers:

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I can see your point, or "see point" as you so eloquently stated. Can you see mine? Like I said to the other guy, I can see why you would have them rated lower but I think just as legitimate an argument can be made for them being top 10 fantasy picks this year. 8 and 9 (original post #'s) do not seem that unrealistic to me.

 

Yes, KJ and JJ are good examples based on last year but IMO R. Brown and Caddy are better than them and in better situations than those 2 were last year. Just b/c those 2 disappointed means that these 2 will?

:banana: How do Barlow and Gore have anything to do with RB and Caddy? Please let me know.

The fact that they were top 5 NFL picks means that they will get the OPPORTUNITY to have break out seasons, so IMO yes that helps support the argument that they are "prime" candidates.

 

Just like people on here continuosly say that Addai will start b/c he was a 1st rd pick. I dont neccesarily agree w/ that but I do agree with the premise.

 

Two Rb's who were selected in the top 5 of the NFL draft and enter their 2nd years as the unquestioned feature back= fantasy potential. Sorry if that doesnt "float" for you. Makes sense to me.

 

Sure, you can look back and find plenty of RB busts in NFL draft history, just like you can at every position. So what?

 

Lets look at the second year ###'s of the only 3 Rb's drafted in the top 5 since 1999. Which was the last time 2 RB's were taken in the first 5 picks.

 

Edge- 1709 yds 13 TD's rushing 594 and 5 recieving

 

RW- 1000 and 8 rushing 409 and 1 rec. (in only 10 gms)

 

LT2- 1683 yds 14 Td's rushing 489 and 1 rec.

 

Am I saying that R. Brown and Caddy will put up these ##'s? Not necesarily.

 

Do I see why a lot of people are willing to take a risk and put them in their top 8 or 9?

 

YES. :P

 

you missed

JLewis (#5 in 2000) - who didn't play at all in 2001 (convenient to miss him).

 

and if you go back one more year you also have

Curtis Enis (#5 in 1998) - 916 yds 3 tds rushing, 340yds 2 tds rec.

also convenient that you stopped in 1999...

 

go back to 1995 and you add

Ki-Jana Carter (#1 in 1995) - who didn't play in 1995, so you can use either 1996 or 97 as his 2nd year - doesn't matter to me:

1996 - 264yds 8tds rushing, 169yds 1td rec.

1997 - 464yds 7tds rushing, 157yds 0td rec.

 

continuing to go back you get:

Marshall Faulk (#2 in 1994) - 1078yds 11tds rushing 475yds 3tds rec. (and that was Marshall Faulk who wound up being a pretty good player later).

 

Garrison Hearst (#3 in 1993) - 169/1 rushing 49/0 rec.

 

Blair Thomas (#2 in 1990) 189/3 & 195/1

 

Barry Sanders (#3 in 1989) 1304/13 & 480/3

 

Alonzo Highsmith (#3 1987) 466/2 & 131/0

 

Brent Fullwood (#4 1987) 483/7 & 128/1

 

Eric Dickerson (#2 1983) 2105/14 & 139/0

 

Curt Warner (#3 1983) 40/0 & 19/0

 

 

so, if you're going to try to bust out similar stats,

A.) don't conveniently skip over a guy that put up a big fat goose egg...

B.) pull a complete relevant sample instead of just 3 of the last 4...

 

 

now, looking at the complete list since the 1982 draft of RBs drafted 1-5 in the first round, you see that only 5 of them went over 1500 combined yds (basically what a #1 RB should get) in their 2nd year - and their names were LT, Edge, Faulk, Sanders, and Dickerson - i'm not willing to put either RB or Caddy in that category yet...

Coincidentally, the same five guys were also the only five to go over 10 tds - something else i want from my #1 RB.

 

so basically 5 of the 14 RBs before RB, Caddy, and Benson were what could be considered a quality #1 RB in their 2nd season. That's about 1/3 of the guys - so if you want to compare to other guys picked 1-5 in the NFL draft, the chances show that 1 of those 3 guys has a chance of being a legit #1 RB for a fantasy team. I'm not going to roll the dice to see which one it is unless i have to...

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Good stat breakdown, famousb. But to be honest with you I really dont care what Alonzo Highsmith or Brent Fullwood did 20 years ago.

 

I would still put more emphasis on the 3 of the last 4 Rb's who were drafted within the last 7 or 8 years, when technology and other resources have made scouting much more diligent, then going back to 1983. But I wont even argue that point.

 

And I did miss J. Lewis, the 4th RB since 99'. It was late. Fine, he missed his entire 2nd year due to an ACL(injury can happen to anyone) but only came back to have the 2nd highest rushing total in NFL history 2 years after that in just his 3rd full season. Ironic that the record by Dickerson, as you pointed out, was in his 2nd year. But I digress.

 

For the last time. You make valid points and I can see why people like you are skeptical of these 2 being rated this high. But I also think you can make just as valid a point as to why they are worth the risk. And that was the original ?? in the thread. Why do so many people have them rated so high? I gave my $.02 as to why.

 

To put it simply, they are good, young talented backs with fresh legs who will be featured prominently in their offenses and have a good chance to put up solid RB1 numbers. That is why many people have them rated at or near their top 10.

 

You think they are overhyped and gave your reasons. Fine, I dont need to change your mind. I was just responding to the thread.

 

IMO if you pass up on Brown and Caddy for a QB or a WR then you are making a mistake.

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