A first look at my top 75

[Meglamaniac 380]

I ignored the fact that Harrison's TDs are superior? I thought I put Harrison as having more TDs than Wayne...

 

Regarding Wayne, you say the stats don't show what I gave him? Stats show Wayne receptions 5 years straight. The only reason his yards went down last year was because his yards per receptions came down to earth. 2004 was a fluke, when Wayne had a 15.7 YPR. Look at my projections; despite the fact Wayne has 13 more receptions than 2004, he still has about as many yards. This is because I used his career yards per reception statistics, which is much lower than that in 2004. I use statistics (like total # of receptions x career yards per reception to get a yardage amount for the year) for my projections. Regarding TDs; Wayne averaged a TD for every 10.86 receptions he makes. When he gets 90 receptions, he should get 8 TDs. See how it works?

 

Harrison hasn't lowered his TD production but once since 2000? Are you kidding me? Let's take a look:

 

2000: 14 UP

2001: 15 UP

2002: 11 DOWN

2003: 10 DOWN

2004: 15 UP

2005: 12 DOWN

 

That's 3 times, not 1. In fact, if Harrison averaged a TD reception for every 8.43 recpetions he makes. So if he makes 80 receptions, he should have 9.5 TDs. However, here is where my personal opinion comes in. I believe that despite less receptions, Harrison will still be a main target in the red zone, and will get 11 TDs. I just spotted your man 1.5 TDs.

Did you really feel the need to post it twice

 

Or maybe you forgot making this statement, "In my opinion, the more recent the statistics, the more meaningful they are."

 

You make your case for McNabb using this as a crutch and then use historical stats to try and show a trend to support you argument about Harrison.

 

As for Harrsions TD production, my point was that you have him projected to score 11, that has only happened twice in the last six years and there is absoutly nothing to indicate that his production should drop this year.

[orcish miscreant 0]

Or maybe you forgot making this statement, "In my opinion, the more recent the statistics, the more meaningful they are."

 

You make your case for McNabb using this as a crutch and then use historical stats to try and show a trend to support you argument about Harrison.

 

The only time I use statistic past 1 year is when I am trying to show a trend, as in "player X's receptions have gone up/down in the past X number of years". You cannot show a trend using only 1 year, can you?

 

As for Harrsions TD production, my point was that you have him projected to score 11, that has only happened twice in the last six years and there is absoutly nothing to indicate that his production should drop this year.

 

I quoted it twice and you still didn't read it...

 

In fact, if Harrison averaged a TD reception for every 8.43 recpetions he makes. So if he makes 80 receptions, he should have 9.5 TDs.

 

Harrison averages a TD reception for ever 8.43 receptions he makes. Why should Harrison have the same number of TDs when he has less receptions? That is my problem with your style of thinking; you fail to use statistical evidence in your projections. You believe Harrison is going to have 12 TDs if he has 50 recpetions or 100. It just doesn't work that way. It may fluctuate by 1 or maybe 2 TDs, but an average is an average, and projecting something so far from it is just plain wrong.

 

And regarding Wayne; in your previous post you jumped all over me for my projection for Wayne. After seeing the statistics I used to achieve those stats, are we in agreement?

[Walter34 3]

I also agree that Wayne will increase his production along with Dallas Clark and Stokely.

 

Harrison is older and less apt to have a huge break forward against his current trends. he has levelled out at around around the 1175 yd avg the past 3 years. He stayed close to the same in the pass happy 2004 season and the run based 2005 year.

 

Wayne and Stokely's numbers took the hit when the colts ran more. They should also get the bump if the colts return to 500+ passes a year.

 

Wayne's receptions have increased each year of his career. His yardage and TDs are more a product of situation. While the receptions do not count in scoring, they do indicate trends in targets and opportunities.

 

I have Harrison maintaining at his current pace: 90 1180 11

 

Wayne breaking out as the #3 WR on my list (not that I would draft him there) and Stokely getting 750/7.

[Meglamaniac 380]

And regarding Wayne; in your previous post you jumped all over me for my projection for Wayne. After seeing the statistics I used to achieve those stats, are we in agreement?

 

"As for Wayne, no it's not hard to have a guy #1 in the league when he doesnt have the most catches on his own team, why casue this is not a PPR league and yardage/TDs are what counts. Take out 2004 and Wayne aveages 5 TDs a season, while Harrison averages nearly 13 over a longer span. Indy will not be able to run, period, I agree that Wayne may be undervalued in my intial rankings, but as far as him passing Harrison in overall production, not going to happen and the projection that Harrison ends up the #1 WR this season, I'll stand by it."

 

Where in this post did I jump all over you?? I stated my case for why Wayne having more receptions didn't alter my view of Harrisons production, nothing more and moreover I staeted here that I should probably re-evaluate Wayne's projections, this is my first reply to you.

 

Are you sure this is about projections as much as it is about you being argumentaive?

 

I also agree that Wayne will increase his production along with Dallas Clark and Stokely.

 

Harrison is older and less apt to have a huge break forward against his current trends. he has levelled out at around around the 1175 yd avg the past 3 years. He stayed close to the same in the pass happy 2004 season and the run based 2005 year.

 

Wayne and Stokely's numbers took the hit when the colts ran more. They should also get the bump if the colts return to 500+ passes a year.

 

Wayne's receptions have increased each year of his career. His yardage and TDs are more a product of situation. While the receptions do not count in scoring, they do indicate trends in targets and opportunities.

 

I have Harrison maintaining at his current pace: 90 1180 11

 

Wayne breaking out as the #3 WR on my list (not that I would draft him there) and Stokely getting 750/7.

Valid points

[orcish miscreant 0]

"As for Wayne, no it's not hard to have a guy #1 in the league when he doesnt have the most catches on his own team, why casue this is not a PPR league and yardage/TDs are what counts. Take out 2004 and Wayne aveages 5 TDs a season, while Harrison averages nearly 13 over a longer span. Indy will not be able to run, period, I agree that Wayne may be undervalued in my intial rankings, but as far as him passing Harrison in overall production, not going to happen and the projection that Harrison ends up the #1 WR this season, I'll stand by it."

 

Where in this post did I jump all over you?? I stated my case for why Wayne having more receptions didn't alter my view of Harrisons production, nothing more and moreover I staeted here that I should probably re-evaluate Wayne's projections, this is my first reply to you.

 

Ok, excellent, you said Wayne's yardage/TDs were too high. I showed you that they weren't. I'm looking for comments regarding that.

 

Anyways, going back to Harrison, I'll post it again why he should not be #1 in the league.

 

Harrison averages a TD reception for ever 8.43 receptions he makes. Why should Harrison have the same number of TDs when he has less receptions? That is my problem with your style of thinking; you fail to use statistical evidence in your projections. You believe Harrison is going to have 12 TDs if he has 50 recpetions or 100. It just doesn't work that way. It may fluctuate by 1 or maybe 2 TDs, but an average is an average, and projecting something so far from it is just plain wrong.

 

Harrison is 34 years old. That is not a surefire excuse for a decline in production, despite common belief. However, when you are 34 years old and your reception total has been declining 3 years in a row, it's much less likely for you to reverse that trend than is you were say, 27 years old. And without a large number of receptions, a players numbers cannot, and will not be high. Even if Marvin Harrison were to get 100 receptions (he won't; look at the trends), his career averages show that those numbers, put into last year's setting, would be good for a tie for 2nd place. And that is in the best possible scenario. He still hasn't achieved 1st despite an highly improbably scenario.

 

Are you sure this is about projections as much as it is about you being argumentative?

 

When you're winning it's a debate and when you're losing is arguementaive. That's how it was, is and always will be. That's why football_scooter is defined as argumentative by everyone else.

[Meglamaniac 380]

When you're winning it's a debate and when you're losing is arguementaive. That's how it was, is and always will be. That's why football_scooter is defined as argumentative by everyone else.

LOL, well the point on this thread was to get feedback, debate the issues and look to see where improvements needed to be made. I have no problem being wrong, fact is these are projections and they are going to be wrong. It's amazing how you have won this debate and yet not a sinlge FF point has been scored this season As for winning the debate, here ya go , you are A number one, nothing more for me to learn here.

[orcish miscreant 0]

LOL, well the point on this thread was to get feedback, debate the issues and look to see where improvements needed to be made. I have no problem being wrong, fact is these are projections and they are going to be wrong. It's amazing how you have won this debate and yet not a sinlge FF point has been scored this season As for winning the debate, here ya go , you are A number one, nothing more for me to learn here.

 

You failed to comment on my points above, so I figure I'll throw a few more at you.

 

Another reason why Harrison (and Wayne as well) will not lead the league in WR fantasy points? Targets. Looking at last year's top 10 in Fantasy Points, only 2 WRs were targeted less than 150 times. One of these was Harrison, who was targeted a mere 132 times. Obviously, Harrison has a great percentage as far as catching that were thrown to him (62.1%, which is excellent for a WR. Wayne's is 68%, which is phemonenal). But if he isn't getting the targets, why would he be the top WR? In 2004, Manning's explosive year, he was only targeted 139 times, hardly any better. If his targets don't go up, why would his production?

[Junkie 0]

Overall I think this is a pretty good list for July. Megla, it's a good start, but I'm sure you'll make some changes as you go. I, as well as most of us here would not rank Harrison so high. I think that's one reason why the point is so easy to "debate."

 

Most of us agreed with you, orsich, before you posted 20 times arguing (sorry...DEBATING) Harrison's ranking on Megla's list. I also disagree with R. Brown's ranking. I have a feeling Megla will be bumping him up a bit on his list before draft day. I'm not so sure he will change his opinion regarding Marvin, which could end up biting him on the ass, or he could be laughing at us all by next January. Sometimes gut feelings have a way of working out, and going purely on statistics kind of takes the fun out of it (for me, anyway).

 

I will be posting my rankings in the next few weeks to get some feedback and some constructive criticism. I'll expect a few rabid posters to tear me a new one.

[orcish miscreant 0]

Sometimes gut feelings have a way of working out, and going purely on statistics kind of takes the fun out of it (for me, anyway).

 

Each to his own, I guess. But I honestly wouldn't trust my fantasy season with someone's gut feeling. Let's be honest, saying you have a 'gut feeling' that Player X is going to break out isn't constructive at all. No one in their right mind is going to listen to you for a second, so honestly, you haven't contributed to the board at all. Remember, there are a million different gut feelings to use but only one set of statistics.

[Meglamaniac 380]

Each to his own, I guess. But I honestly wouldn't trust my fantasy season with someone's gut feeling. Let's be honest, saying you have a 'gut feeling' that Player X is going to break out isn't constructive at all. No one in their right mind is going to listen to you for a second, so honestly, you haven't contributed to the board at all. Remember, there are a million different gut feelings to use but only one set of statistics.

At some point I just want to start throwing insults, but I wont.

1. Im' not asking you to listen to me, I ask that you you look at my list and tell me where you feel I may not be accurate.

 

2. Haven't contributed, there's a joke, pretty sure beyond you many have seen the list, look at it and stated where they see problems, good for me, good for them, it helps us all in the end.

 

3. I'm pretty sure that if you really try hard you can make stats say many things, much as you did with your McNabb statement, who asked you to "trust your fantasy season" with my projections, I merely asked you look at them and commetnts.

 

Overall I think this is a pretty good list for July. Megla, it's a good start, but I'm sure you'll make some changes as you go. I, as well as most of us here would not rank Harrison so high. I think that's one reason why the point is so easy to "debate."

 

Most of us agreed with you, orsich, before you posted 20 times arguing (sorry...DEBATING) Harrison's ranking on Megla's list. I also disagree with R. Brown's ranking. I have a feeling Megla will be bumping him up a bit on his list before draft day. I'm not so sure he will change his opinion regarding Marvin, which could end up biting him on the ass, or he could be laughing at us all by next January. Sometimes gut feelings have a way of working out, and going purely on statistics kind of takes the fun out of it (for me, anyway).

 

I will be posting my rankings in the next few weeks to get some feedback and some constructive criticism. I'll expect a few rabid posters to tear me a new one.

NO doubt, R. Brown will move up on my list, good points have been made has to why he should succees this season.

 

I look forward to seeing your ranking and I will be more than happy to give some insight where I can.

[Meglamaniac 380]

OLBBMA

[orcish miscreant 0]

At some point I just want to start throwing insults, but I wont.

1. Im' not asking you to listen to me, I ask that you you look at my list and tell me where you feel I may not be accurate.

 

2. Haven't contributed, there's a joke, pretty sure beyond you many have seen the list, look at it and stated where they see problems, good for me, good for them, it helps us all in the end.

 

3. I'm pretty sure that if you really try hard you can make stats say many things, much as you did with your McNabb statement, who asked you to "trust your fantasy season" with my projections, I merely asked you look at them and commetnts.

 

Actually, I was responding Junkie, but it's great to get feedback from all factions...

 

Also, I admire your ability to hold back on throwing insults. Do you have any other internal struggles you would like to share with the class?

[football_scooter 0]

At some point I just want to start throwing insults, but I wont.

 

Awwww, and I was looking forward to the :popcorn:

 

 

 

Why hold back? Never stopped you before?

 

 

 

 

just playin' of course.

[Meglamaniac 380]

AJSOMWHTLWB

[flowbee 0]

DJax not in the top 75, unless you think he's going to miss a bunch of games, foolishness

[CookieG 4]

Don't have time to read it now, but how on God's green earth can you have Gonzo ranked over Gates?

 

Sorry if this has been mentioned already, but so egregious it desreves another mention.

 

[Meglamaniac 380]

DJax not in the top 75, unless you think he's going to miss a bunch of games, foolishness

It was not typed in, but he is the 17th ranked WR.