A first look at my top 75

[Meglamaniac 380]

yea, even from you scooter

 

1.LT, 1RB, +225

 

2.SA, 2RB, +174

3.LJ, 3RB, +158

 

4.TBARBER, 4RB, +132

5.MHARRISON, 1WR, +128

 

6.LJORDAN, 5RB, +118

7.SSMITH, 2WR, +114

8.CPORTIS, 6RB, +112

 

9. PMANNING, 1QB, +96

10.TOWENS, 3WR, +95

11.RMOSS, 4WR, +91

12.CJOHNSON,5WR, +86

13.THOLT, 6WR, +84

 

14.GONZO, 1TE, +78

15.CPALMER, 2QB, +76

16.FITZGERALD, 7WR, +76

17.EJAMES, 7RB, +75

18. HWARD, 8WR, +74

19. ABOLDIN, 9WR, +70

20.CULPEPPER, 3QB, +69

21.MCGAHEE, 8RB, +68

 

22.SJACKSON, 9RB, +65

23.C. WILLIAMS, 10RB, +65

24.R. JOHNSON, 11RB, +65

25.GATES, 2TE, +64

26.EMANNING, 4QB, +62

27. CHAMBERS, 10WR, +62

28.RDROUGHNS, 12RB, +60

29.SMOSS, 11WR, +59

30.SHOCKY, 3TE, +58

31.BLEDSOE, 5QB, +57

32.GALLOWAY, 12WR, +56

33.JWALKER, 13WR, +56

34.MCNABB, 6QB, +53

35.WESTBROOK, 13RB, +52

 

36.TGLENN, 14WR, +50

37.DDRIVER, 15WR, +50

38.MVICK, 7QB, +48

39.CRUMPLER, 4TE, +46

40.HASSLEBECK, 8QB, +43

41.DUNN, 14RB, +42

42. AGREEN, 15RB, +42

43.HEAP, 5TE, +42

44.BRADY, 9QB, +41

45.BURRESS, 16WR, +40

46.JLEWIS, 16RB, +38

47.COOLEY, 6TE, +37

 

48.RSMITH, 17WR, +36

49.ROYWILLIAMS, 18WR, +36

50.DMASON, 19WR, +36

51. RWAYNE, 20WR, +36

52.KWARNER, 10QB, +34

53.FOSTER,17RB, +33

54.TJHOUSH, 21WR, +33

 

55.WITTEN, 7TE, +31

56.DBRANCH, 22WR, +26

57.JHORN, 23WR, +26

58.KEYJOHNSON, 24WR, +24

59.JJONES, 18RB, +21

 

60. MATTJONES, 25WR, +20

61.EMOULDS, 26WR, +20

62. WPARKER, 19RB, +15

63.IBRUCE, 27WR, +14

64.TGREEN, 11QB, +13

 

65.KJONES, 20RB, +12

66. JPORTER, 28WR, +11

67.DDAVIS, 21RB, +11

68.MCMICHAEL, 8TE, +10

69.BLLOYD, 29WR, +10

70.LEVANS, 30WR, +9

71.DSTALLWORTH, 31WR, +8

 

72. EWILFORD, 32WR, +6

73. HMILLER, 9TE, +6

74. LCOLES, 33WR, +4

75. ABRYANT, 34WR, +4

[Kitsnow 0]

I'm afraid to ask what the +number means... because it doesn't look like it means fantasy points. Is this your actual draft board or just your fantasy rankings?

 

IF you really had pick 6 in a draft would you take starvin marvin?

[The Moz 69]

Ballsy list -- I disagree with alot of it -- but it isn't the run of da mill throw together either !

[football_scooter 0]

yea, even from you scooter

[Meglamaniac 380]

I'm afraid to ask what the +number means... because it doesn't look like it means fantasy points. Is this your actual draft board or just your fantasy rankings?

 

IF you really had pick 6 in a draft would you take starvin marvin?

No it's not FF Points, it's thier Value based drafting value.

The figures where derived based on a

1. 12 team league

2. Scoring of 1per 20 pass, 4 per pass TD, 1 per 10 rush/rec and 6 per rush/rec TD.

3. Starting line up of 1QB, 2 RBs, 3WRs, 1 TE

 

The list is a tool that given projected stats give a value to the player and an idea of where that player should be drafted, it's not a set in stone draft list, so for example if I did draft #5 and LT, SA, TB are gone then I would consider Harrison, but becasue of demand I would probably go RB. But if I was drafting late and it was between a Teir 3 RB and the # 1 or 2 WR, then the value is too much to pass on.

[football_scooter 0]

no time for a thorough eval, but I have to say at a glance I am pretty stunned. LT2 as the RB1? Ok, I can see that happening, maybe...but Harrison as the #1 WR in all of fantasy? 4 spots more valuable than Portis at 8th overall?

 

If that pans out, you'll have my eternal respect as a FFB prognosticator.

[Rookie QB 0]

14.GONZO, 1TE, +78

 

[Meglamaniac 380]

no time for a thorough eval, but I have to say at a glance I am pretty stunned. LT2 as the RB1? Ok, I can see that happening, maybe...but Harrison as the #1 WR in all of fantasy? 4 spots more valuable than Portis at 8th overall?

 

If that pans out, you'll have my eternal respect as a FFB prognosticator.

 

1. LT- He will be relied on heavily in the passing game, I see him improving on his career low 51 catches of last year and SD runs the ball, some 46% of the time and LT is the only one running. I see SD riding him even more with Rivers at the helm.

 

2. Who is in a better position than Harrison to be #1 at the WR position?

RMoss- New QB, health questions and well he plays for the Raiders, just dont see it.

TOwens- Not in that offense and not with TGlenn on the field, by Parcels own admission, " this is not an offense where TO is going to get 90 catches"

SSmith- The one guy I could see surpassing MH

 

Lets face facts, if you were Dungy and you had a choice, rely on Rhodes or a rookie RB or a guy that is the best at his position(Manning) what would you do? and who has been a more consistent WR that MH finishing in the top 6 all of the last 3 years and never having less than 10 TDs in those years.

 

 

 

I agree, in a TE required league it's scary how valuable the top 2 TEs are.

[football_scooter 0]

1. LT- He will be relied on heavily in the passing game, I see him improving on his career low 51 catches of last year and SD runs the ball, some 46% of the time and LT is the only one running. I see SD riding him even more with Rivers at the helm.

 

I agree - i've even pointed out to others that when Brees struggled, it was all LT2, all the time. But now they have Gates, who is a solid outlet as well and a big target for an inexperienced QB.

 

I think LT2's value will rise, but a lot of where you have him ranked is based on his receptions, which really give him a boost in PPR leagues, but doesn't do that much in non-PPR leagues to justify putting over two guys who should each score 5-10 more TDs. Plus LT2 seems to have broken down a bit the last two years, and I'm a little concerned about that. Not so concerned that I'd take Portis over him at the 4 spot, but concerned nonetheless.

 

Like I said though - I could see this one happening, I just wouldn't take him if I had 1.01 at my disposal.

 

2. Who is in a better position than Harrison to be #1 at the WR position?

RMoss- New QB, health questions and well he plays for the Raiders, just dont see it.

TOwens- Not in that offense and not with TGlenn on the field, by Parcels own admission, " this is not an offense where TO is going to get 90 catches"

SSmith- The one guy I could see surpassing MH

 

Lets face facts, if you were Dungy and you had a choice, rely on Rhodes or a rookie RB or a guy that is the best at his position(Manning) what would you do? and who has been a more consistent WR that MH finishing in the top 6 all of the last 3 years and never having less than 10 TDs in those years.

 

Man, you're all over the place with this justification. lol

 

Let's both agree that Harrison has had a stellar career and a stellar run the last 6 years.

 

Now that's out of the way, let's look at Reggie Wayne being on the other side of the field. I see Wayne eventually taking over as WR1 on that team. It might not be this year, but I think they will be very close in numbers, both with 1000+ and both with 10+ TDs.

 

Who could be better than Harrison?

 

I think Owens could easily. Just because a guy doesn't "catch 90 balls" doesn't mean his value won't be maximized with the receptions he does have. Let's face it: Owens is a beast. 17 TDs is not out of the question, even in that offense. I don't see any other WR with the potential to score as much as Owens this year.

 

Others who could push for #1 WR:

RMoss - Brooks escapability is key to Moss having the time to get downfield, and we've all see what Brooks did with a healthy Horn. Moss might not return to his former self, since he's outdoors, on grass and in a worse offense...but the O-Line is improved and Brooks is a mobile QB which should both help to put Moss close to the level he was at in Minny.

 

CJohnson - a lot of this depends on Palmer's return date, but no doubt this guy has the tools to be the top WR in the NFL, and a coach who likes taking downfield shots at him.

 

SSmith - with MeShawn there to open things up a bit, I could see Smith having another spectacular season.

 

Could Harrison be the man? Sure, he could...I wouldn't bet on it though. Plus his age makes him a bit of an injury risk - and isn't he coming off of wrist surgery?

 

Again, each to their own, and I respect you for putting this list out there. I'll take a look at it beyond the top 10 when I have time and we can some more about it.

[rebooters 1]

maybe im blind but ive looked through the list 2 times and no ronnie brown? did i miss it. IMO brown is a top 15 RB.

 

i have to agree that harrison is too far up. this year should be between TO and steve smith for #1 WR. i know TO wont get the touches that smith will but his each touch should count for alot. he will be their #1 red zone td target and can also get down the field for the deep ball and is a tough one to take down. the cowboys might find themself going to TO more than they are anticipating. they havent had the best offense for a while now and now have a legitimate superthreat in TO.

as far as steve smith goes, all i can say is, did you watch him play last year? the guy creates tds from mistackles and sometimes just creates them out of nothing. super athletic and delhommes favorite target in an offense where the running game might be in trouble this year. he will get his fair chances to repeat last year. also with keyshawn on the squad i think this only helps steve from getting so many double teams like green bay did to steve last year(pissed me off).

 

marvin and wayne, i expect them to have the same kind of numbers and manning to have between 30-40tds and 4500 yrds. with this, both wayne and harrison could have 12-15 tds each and they both should get double digits so i guess they arent a bad choice. what i am thinking of is waiting to a later round to grab wayne instead of harrisson for the same production.

[Meglamaniac 380]

maybe im blind but ive looked through the list 2 times and no ronnie brown? did i miss it. IMO brown is a top 15 RB.

 

i have to agree that harrison is too far up. this year should be between TO and steve smith for #1 WR. i know TO wont get the touches that smith will but his each touch should count for alot. he will be their #1 red zone td target and can also get down the field for the deep ball and is a tough one to take down. the cowboys might find themself going to TO more than they are anticipating. they havent had the best offense for a while now and now have a legitimate superthreat in TO.

as far as steve smith goes, all i can say is, did you watch him play last year? the guy creates tds from mistackles and sometimes just creates them out of nothing. super athletic and delhommes favorite target in an offense where the running game might be in trouble this year. he will get his fair chances to repeat last year. also with keyshawn on the squad i think this only helps steve from getting so many double teams like green bay did to steve last year(pissed me off).

 

marvin and wayne, i expect them to have the same kind of numbers and manning to have between 30-40tds and 4500 yrds. with this, both wayne and harrison could have 12-15 tds each and they both should get double digits so i guess they arent a bad choice. what i am thinking of is waiting to a later round to grab wayne instead of harrisson for the same production.

I have him as the #23 RB which does not land him in the top 75.

You do realize that I have SSmith in the 7 slot and the #2WR, so I agree that Smith could end up as the #1WR.

[shadow2k 0]

Lot's of things I don't agree with here. But I'll stick to what I know best, being from KC.

 

Gonzalez is not the top TE. First off, LJ sucks at pass blocking. TRich, who was great at it, is gone. So the combination of those two, even with a healthy O-line, means Gonzo will be doing quite a bit of pass blocking just like last year. On top of that, the KC WR corps(e) still sucks. Which means Gonzo gets way too many double teams. He's not going to miraculously return to form this year, as much as I wish he would. After Gates...just wait on a TE. There are plenty of scrubs around that are all grouped up below him. Having Shockey in round three will not help you as much as a #2RB or top WR would.

[football_scooter 0]

Lot's of things I don't agree with here. But I'll stick to what I know best, being from KC.

 

Gonzalez is not the top TE. First off, LJ sucks at pass blocking. TRich, who was great at it, is gone. So the combination of those two, even with a healthy O-line, means Gonzo will be doing quite a bit of pass blocking just like last year. On top of that, the KC WR corps(e) still sucks. Which means Gonzo gets way too many double teams. He's not going to miraculously return to form this year, as much as I wish he would. After Gates...just wait on a TE. There are plenty of scrubs around that are all grouped up below him. Having Shockey in round three will not help you as much as a #2RB or top WR would.

 

looking at TGonz numbers from last year I see he still had 900+ receiving yards and the only thing that was down were his TD numbers.

 

You said yourself the Chiefs don't have a wealth of receiving options, so who else will they go to in the red zone? Sammy Parker seems a bit small for the role...I'd be shocked to see TGonz with less then 900/7 this year and I don't think that will take a "miracle".

[Orgazmo 2]

You said yourself the Chiefs don't have a wealth of receiving options, so who else will they go to in the red zone?

Defensive coordinators are saying the same thing, which could've been his point.

[football_scooter 0]

Defensive coordinators are saying the same thing, which could've been his point.

 

like D-Coordinators weren't keying in on TGonz when he had 7 then 10 then 7 TDs from 2002-2004?

Hard not to notice him - he's kinda big you know.

 

I've seen him consistently beat double coverage in the end zone, so that's not going to convince me that he can't return to 7-10 TD status.

[Orgazmo 2]

like D-Coordinators weren't keying in on TGonz when he had 7 then 10 then 7 TDs from 2002-2004?

Hard not to notice him - he's kinda big you know.

 

I've seen him consistently beat double coverage in the end zone, so that's not going to convince me that he can return to 7-10 TD status.

No doubt he's a special talent, but the Chiefs have done next to nothing to help his situation. That said, I can see another year of good yardage and maybe 5 touchdowns.

[shadow2k 0]

looking at TGonz numbers from last year I see he still had 900+ receiving yards and the only thing that was down were his TD numbers.

 

You said yourself the Chiefs don't have a wealth of receiving options, so who else will they go to in the red zone? Sammy Parker seems a bit small for the role...I'd be shocked to see TGonz with less then 900/7 this year and I don't think that will take a "miracle".

 

 

Gates, Antonio 204.0

Heap, Todd 158.0

Shockey, Jeremy 153.0

Cooley, Chris 150.0

Crumpler, Alge 139.0

Witten, Jason 139.0

Gonzalez, Tony 135.0

 

 

It wasn't only that he was being kept in to block though. Think about how he used to rack up the points. It wasn't like teams were just letting him run free, KC WR's have never been all that great. Gonzo is one year removed from what was basically a career year, and it was pretty much the same deal with the receivers. The biggest difference I saw was that he wasn't fighting through the double teams to make the play like he used to. I stopped counting how many times I saw him not catch something that used to be second nature to him.

 

Even if he does get 900/7, which is not all that unreasonable...he's still not the #1 TE. And I wouldn't use a 2nd rounder on him. He's not going to outscore the other up and coming guys at TE by enough to make it worth it. I'd rather grab one from the pack that are interchangeable in the middle rounds. Far more value to be had there.

 

900/7 is basically Gonzo's ceiling, if you really take a look at it. I mean, 2004 was his career year. Real question should be, for a second round pick...what's his floor?

[Guest fantasyfreak64]

wtf ?

I strongly disagree

[rebooters 1]

will herm edwards presence change any of this VS vermeils style?

[shadow2k 0]

will herm edwards presence change any of this VS vermeils style?

 

They'll run more I'd assume. Don't know a hell of a lot about Herm, but I'm pretty sure he's very conservative. What that basically means is that Kennison won't crack 1,000, Parker isn't worth a roster spot, and Green is a backup QB for you. LJ...is the #1/2/3 pick in every league this year.

[Meglamaniac 380]

wtf ?

I strongly disagree

LOL, what exactly are you disagreeing with?

 

[Da Bomb 0]

why so low on ronnie brown?

 

also... how did you come up with your rankings? did you just rank the players by position and plug them into the VBD thing from last year's numbers? or did you project, and then put the players into VBD?

[Meglamaniac 380]

why so low on ronnie brown?

 

also... how did you come up with your rankings? did you just rank the players by position and plug them into the VBD thing from last year's numbers? or did you project, and then put the players into VBD?

I'm just not sold on him, more of a gut than anything.

 

I took the averages from the last three years, I created a master list for each position and then plug that list into the averages at that spot, ie. if LT was #1 at RB and the 3 year average stats for the #1 RB were 1700, 22, 350 and 2 then that was what he got. I then went back and adjust the projections where there were obvious porblems(like a rec back only getting 100 rec yards based on the 3 year average)

[shadow2k 0]

I took the averages from the last three years, I created a master list for each position and then plug that list into the averages at that spot

 

 

That leaves so many things unaccounted for. Age, changing teams/coaches, injuries, rookies added to the mix, schedule, etc, etc...

 

No system is perfect, but you really might want to dig a bit deeper.

[Meglamaniac 380]

 

That leaves so many things unaccounted for. Age, changing teams/coaches, injuries, rookies added to the mix, schedule, etc, etc...

 

No system is perfect, but you really might want to dig a bit deeper.

All of the aboves are covered in the reviewing process to adjust for errors, again this is a starting point that will be changed many times as we approach the draft.

[9-Route 0]

i like the list, especially from a learning prospective.

 

some thoughts:

 

1. i am surprised/impressed(?) by how highly you have ranked culpepper. i figured i was the only one who thought this much of him.

 

2. i like the gates position---he will indeed be a great reception monster for rivers, and he is still learning new moves and polish for the red zone.

 

3. i am learning a lot from multiple owners about javon walker. some feel he could explode in shanny's playbook/scheme; others are lukewarm (plummer posted 20+tds only once, and it accompanied 20ints).

 

4. wrs [obviously my major topic to address, and the perennial wr lover] i like the moss/TO rankings being high, and nearly equal; i am just skeptical at marvin and ssmith. marvin has shown continual decrease in his recs since his mammoth 143rec campaign in 2002(?); in addition, he has cracked 1200yds once, with 2 sub-1200yd performances. i posted in several other threads that i applaud his awesome td consistency (6-7 straight 10+td seasons). despite what most think will happen offensively with the loss of edge, i cant see the run-pass balance being disrupted/shifted drastically enough to merit marvin attaining the ultra-elite stats of a few yrs ago---i just dont think these trends point in this direction.

 

as for ssmith, i hear the facts that delhomme has locked onto his favorite wr each of the past 2 seasons, yielding 1400-16 and 1500-12 efforts; however, i agree with the counterpoints that the rest of the wrs were below average, and that the run game failed them. with keyshawn in town, i cant see smith approaching last yrs stats again---far too many 3rd down conversions/recs for kj. there arent enough balls being thrown in carolina to placate them both. in 2003, when they were at their best and a serious playoff contender, jake threw ~450 passes. that yr, ssmith snared 88, with a nice wr2 complement of 54 by moose. last yr, he again threw ~430 passes, but smith snared 100, with no bonafide complement (next highest rec total was a paltry 30). i think they want to be at the 2003 level, with a nice 1200-1400yd rusher, and a balanced pass attack mixed with possession and down field attack. this points towards a lower probability of a duplicate statistical season to me.

 

overall, i learned a lot form your list and valuations.

[SoloMatisse 0]

I can only disagree with one minor thing.......Ronnie Brown didnt crack your top 75. Oversight?....or simply overrated? Not the list, the player.......

[Meglamaniac 380]

I can only disagree with one minor thing.......Ronnie Brown didnt crack your top 75. Oversight?....or simply overrated? Not the list, the player.......

As stated earlier, not an ommission, just a gut feeling.

 

i like the list, especially from a learning prospective.

 

some thoughts:

 

1. i am surprised/impressed(?) by how highly you have ranked culpepper. i figured i was the only one who thought this much of him.

 

2. i like the gates position---he will indeed be a great reception monster for rivers, and he is still learning new moves and polish for the red zone.

 

3. i am learning a lot from multiple owners about javon walker. some feel he could explode in shanny's playbook/scheme; others are lukewarm (plummer posted 20+tds only once, and it accompanied 20ints).

 

4. wrs [obviously my major topic to address, and the perennial wr lover] i like the moss/TO rankings being high, and nearly equal; i am just skeptical at marvin and ssmith. marvin has shown continual decrease in his recs since his mammoth 143rec campaign in 2002(?); in addition, he has cracked 1200yds once, with 2 sub-1200yd performances. i posted in several other threads that i applaud his awesome td consistency (6-7 straight 10+td seasons). despite what most think will happen offensively with the loss of edge, i cant see the run-pass balance being disrupted/shifted drastically enough to merit marvin attaining the ultra-elite stats of a few yrs ago---i just dont think these trends point in this direction.

 

as for ssmith, i hear the facts that delhomme has locked onto his favorite wr each of the past 2 seasons, yielding 1400-16 and 1500-12 efforts; however, i agree with the counterpoints that the rest of the wrs were below average, and that the run game failed them. with keyshawn in town, i cant see smith approaching last yrs stats again---far too many 3rd down conversions/recs for kj. there arent enough balls being thrown in carolina to placate them both. in 2003, when they were at their best and a serious playoff contender, jake threw ~450 passes. that yr, ssmith snared 88, with a nice wr2 complement of 54 by moose. last yr, he again threw ~430 passes, but smith snared 100, with no bonafide complement (next highest rec total was a paltry 30). i think they want to be at the 2003 level, with a nice 1200-1400yd rusher, and a balanced pass attack mixed with possession and down field attack. this points towards a lower probability of a duplicate statistical season to me.

 

overall, i learned a lot form your list and valuations.

 

I feel Walker will start out slow for a varity of reasons, but second half of the year I would like to have him onmy roster.

 

I couldn't disagree more about the Indy offense, they are not going to be able to run and Dungy will allow Manning to sling the ball all over the place, Harrison will get his 13 TDs as usual, I just see an increase in yardage from the norm.

 

Good points all around, thanks for the reply.

[orcish miscreant 0]

As stated earlier, not an ommission, just a gut feeling.

 

Oh, really? Ronnie Brown was the #23 ranked RB last year splitting carries as a rookie. You think he isn't going to do any better despite the fact he is playing on a better offense, not splitting carries, and with a year of expirience under his belt? I really hate to say this, but that's just plain stupid.

 

Regarding Marvin: Why is he ranked above the likes of Clinton Portis and LaMont Jordan. In fact, why is he the #1 WR in the first place? And why is Reggie Wayne the #20 WR? Let's take a look at past trends. Marvin Harrison's receptions have gone down 3 years in a row, while Reggie Wayne's receptions have risen 5 years in a row Over the past 2 years, Harrison has averaged 1129.5 yards per season while Wayne has averaged 1132.5 yards per season. I know Harrison gets more TDs than Wayne, and he will this year, but its hard to put a guy as the #1 WR in the league when he couldn't even lead his team in receptions last year. Wayne had 83 to Harrison's 82. Not to mention in the past 3 years, Harrison has missed 2 games to Wayne's 0.

[SoloMatisse 0]

Ive got a 'gut feeling' that a list that excludes a top 10 RB from a top SEVENTY-FIVE list because of a 'gut feeling' leaves my gut feeling like takin' a crap on that list........ .........you did say ALL comments welcome. There's an awful lot of pretty old guys in your top 15 and basically ZERO cutting edge 'statement' choices ranked very high......use a little imagination already.

[Meglamaniac 380]

Ive got a 'gut feeling' that a list that excludes a top 10 RB from a top SEVENTY-FIVE list because of a 'gut feeling' leaves my gut feeling like takin' a crap on that list........ .........you did say ALL comments welcome. There's an awful lot of pretty old guys in your top 15 and basically ZERO cutting edge 'statement' choices ranked very high......use a little imagination already.

My gut tells me that you feel strongly about RBrown and his production this year

I'll have to revisit the Miami situation.

Did RB run behind a full back last year? or with the addition of Beasly will this be the first year(of RB's tenur) that Mia runs the two back set.

 

What about the shuffling on the OL, no concerns there?

 

Oh, really? Ronnie Brown was the #23 ranked RB last year splitting carries as a rookie. You think he isn't going to do any better despite the fact he is playing on a better offense, not splitting carries, and with a year of expirience under his belt? I really hate to say this, but that's just plain stupid.

 

Regarding Marvin: Why is he ranked above the likes of Clinton Portis and LaMont Jordan. In fact, why is he the #1 WR in the first place? And why is Reggie Wayne the #20 WR? Let's take a look at past trends. Marvin Harrison's receptions have gone down 3 years in a row, while Reggie Wayne's receptions have risen 5 years in a row Over the past 2 years, Harrison has averaged 1129.5 yards per season while Wayne has averaged 1132.5 yards per season. I know Harrison gets more TDs than Wayne, and he will this year, but its hard to put a guy as the #1 WR in the league when he couldn't even lead his team in receptions last year. Wayne had 83 to Harrison's 82. Not to mention in the past 3 years, Harrison has missed 2 games to Wayne's 0.

Well it may be just plain stupid, but it's my plain stupid, I'll live with it

 

As for Wayne, no it's not hard to have a guy #1 in the league when he doesnt have the most catches on his own team, why casue this is not a PPR league and yardage/TDs are what counts. Take out 2004 and Wayne aveages 5 TDs a season, while Harrison averages nearly 13 over a longer span. Indy will not be able to run, period, I agree that Wayne may be undervalued in my intial rankings, but as far as him passing Harrison in overall production, not going to happen and the projection that Harrison ends up the #1 WR this season, I'll stand by it.

[SoloMatisse 0]

This feeling just reminds me of SA's situation 4 or 5 years ago running behind Ricky Watters for a year, when in year 2 Watters went down, SA stepped in and never looked back. That team was no juggernaut either and didnt exactly play great D, but I believed that Alexander was an elite back then, and with the support of a fairly balanced O, they moved the ball well, and the rest has become history. I picked him up in a trade his rookie year, and at the time it was a bit of a stretch, but again, you just stick to your guns. I believe in the process of good veteran backs teaching younger backs what it takes to get it done at the next level. It happens often. Watters/Alexander is a case. Faulk/Jackson. Bettis/Parker. Martin/Jordan. Holmes/Johnson. TD/Portis. When a young back with obvious talent, enough so to be taken 2nd overall, has the opportunity to learn to run the ball from someone like Ricky Williams, who although is somewhat of a knucklehead is nonetheless a tremendous RB, the chances of success are good. Throw into the mix a great young coach, a solid D, a potential stud QB, an absolute stud WR to occupy FSs, and other dependable targets in Booker and McMichael, with no real threat in the way of a backup RB who could steal time.....and a beautiful schedule.......yes, Im not just drinking the koolaid........Im manfacturing it right now.

[ratbastard1 0]

I agree with LT2 and Harrison but you are undercutting Ronnie.

 

I will look deeper at this list later though.

[Parkers99 0]

A quality, well thought out list Megla. Naturally, we have a few different opinions.

 

#1) Not to pile on, but Ronnie Brown is, well, good...

 

#2) Everyone & their brother are covering Marvin Harrison while in the red zone. Peyton's just to smart a QB to ever make him the #1 fantasy WR. For a great FF WR, you need a nice, dumb QB like they have in Carolina force feeding balls into double coverage.

 

#3) I'll take this opportunity to say that T.O. will NOT be a top 5 WR. At best he'll catch 70 passes. Expect Keyshawns stats w/ better YAC numbers.

 

#4) Gonzo may or may not have lost a step... but he definately DID lose the Offensive Coordinator that single handidly made the TE position relevant in FF. Losing Saunders destroyed Gonzo's value IMHO.

 

#5) Ballsy call w/ Culpepper. New team, overcoming a pretty severe injury... I don't know. I expect him to be a #1 FF QB, but not top three this season.

[orcish miscreant 0]

Regarding Marvin: Why is he ranked above the likes of Clinton Portis and LaMont Jordan. In fact, why is he the #1 WR in the first place? And why is Reggie Wayne the #20 WR? Let's take a look at past trends. Marvin Harrison's receptions have gone down 3 years in a row, while Reggie Wayne's receptions have risen 5 years in a row Over the past 2 years, Harrison has averaged 1129.5 yards per season while Wayne has averaged 1132.5 yards per season. I know Harrison gets more TDs than Wayne, and he will this year, but its hard to put a guy as the #1 WR in the league when he couldn't even lead his team in receptions last year. Wayne had 83 to Harrison's 82. Not to mention in the past 3 years, Harrison has missed 2 games to Wayne's 0.

 

As for Wayne, no it's not hard to have a guy #1 in the league when he doesnt have the most catches on his own team, why casue this is not a PPR league and yardage/TDs are what counts. Take out 2004 and Wayne aveages 5 TDs a season, while Harrison averages nearly 13 over a longer span. Indy will not be able to run, period, I agree that Wayne may be undervalued in my intial rankings, but as far as him passing Harrison in overall production, not going to happen and the projection that Harrison ends up the #1 WR this season, I'll stand by it.

 

So you completely ignored the trends I posted. How can you say Harrison is going to be #1 when statistics show his receptions going down 3 years in a row? Remember Manning's record setting TD year 2 seasons ago? Harrison's receptions still went down by 8. Don't try to play the "It's not a PPR league" card. Receptions = production, simple as that. You don't seem to get something else as well; when Manning throws more in recent years, it's guys like Brandon Stokely who benefit, not Harrison. Compare Harrison's 2004 and 2005 numbers. Nearly identical, despite the fact that Manning threw 40 more times in 2005 than in 2005. Now look at Stokely's numbers in 2004 and 2005. Huge difference.

 

My projections for this season for Wayne and Harrison

 

Wayne: 90 receptions for 1233 and 8 TDs; 171.3 Fantasy Points

 

Harrison: 80 receptions for 1064 and 11 TDs ; 172.4 Fantasy Points

 

Obviously, Harrison isn't going to be the #1 WR in football with these stats, but they are concurrent with recent trends. Also, with these stats, Harrison would have been the #10 WR in football last year.

[Meglamaniac 380]

As for Wayne, no it's not hard to have a guy #1 in the league when he doesnt have the most catches on his own team, why casue this is not a PPR league and yardage/TDs are what counts. Take out 2004 and Wayne aveages 5 TDs a season, while Harrison averages nearly 13 over a longer span. Indy will not be able to run, period, I agree that Wayne may be undervalued in my intial rankings, but as far as him passing Harrison in overall production, not going to happen and the projection that Harrison ends up the #1 WR this season, I'll stand by it.

So you completely ignored the trends I posted. How can you say Harrison is going to be #1 when statistics show his receptions going down 3 years in a row? Remember Manning's record setting TD year 2 seasons ago? Harrison's receptions still went down by 8. Don't try to play the "It's not a PPR league" card. Receptions = production, simple as that. You don't seem to get something else as well; when Manning throws more in recent years, it's guys like Brandon Stokely who benefit, not Harrison. Compare Harrison's 2004 and 2005 numbers. Nearly identical, despite the fact that Manning threw 40 more times in 2005 than in 2005. Now look at Stokely's numbers in 2004 and 2005. Huge difference.

 

My projections for this season for Wayne and Harrison

 

Wayne: 90 receptions for 1233 and 8 TDs; 171.3 Fantasy Points

 

Harrison: 80 receptions for 1064 and 11 TDs ; 172.4 Fantasy Points

 

Obviously, Harrison isn't going to be the #1 WR in football with these stats, but they are concurrent with recent trends. Also, with these stats, Harrison would have been the #10 WR in football last year.

I didn't ignore anythng, anymore than you ignored the fact that Harrison's TDs stats are far superior than Waynes regardless of the # of receptions. You have Wayne increasing his Rec, Rec yards and Rec TDs, you attribute this to the trend of his increasing # of receptions over the last few seasons, but the stats dont show that, especially when it comes to TDs, where you have him increasing by @45% all the while lowering Harrison's TD production, whcih simply hasn't happened but once since 2000.

 

Again I will concede that I may need to move Wayne up the WR list a bit, but Harrison will continue to be my #1 WR.

[orcish miscreant 0]

I didn't ignore anythng, anymore than you ignored the fact that Harrison's TDs stats are far superior than Waynes regardless of the # of receptions. You have Wayne increasing his Rec, Rec yards and Rec TDs, you attribute this to the trend of his increasing # of receptions over the last few seasons, but the stats dont show that, especially when it comes to TDs, where you have him increasing by @45% all the while lowering Harrison's TD production, whcih simply hasn't happened but once since 2000.

 

Again I will concede that I may need to move Wayne up the WR list a bit, but Harrison will continue to be my #1 WR.

 

I ignored the fact that Harrison's TDs are superior? I thought I put Harrison as having more TDs than Wayne...

 

Regarding Wayne, you say the stats don't show what I gave him? Stats show Wayne receptions 5 years straight. The only reason his yards went down last year was because his yards per receptions came down to earth. 2004 was a fluke, when Wayne had a 15.7 YPR. Look at my projections; despite the fact Wayne has 13 more receptions than 2004, he still has about as many yards. This is because I used his career yards per reception statistics, which is much lower than that in 2004. I use statistics (like total # of receptions x career yards per reception to get a yardage amount for the year) for my projections. Regarding TDs; Wayne averaged a TD for every 10.86 receptions he makes. When he gets 90 receptions, he should get 8 TDs. See how it works?

 

Harrison hasn't lowered his TD production but once since 2000? Are you kidding me? Let's take a look:

 

2000: 14 UP

2001: 15 UP

2002: 11 DOWN

2003: 10 DOWN

2004: 15 UP

2005: 12 DOWN

 

That's 3 times, not 1. In fact, if Harrison averaged a TD reception for every 8.43 recpetions he makes. So if he makes 80 receptions, he should have 9.5 TDs. However, here is where my personal opinion comes in. I believe that despite less receptions, Harrison will still be a main target in the red zone, and will get 11 TDs. I just spotted your man 1.5 TDs.

[BlackPlague 1]

Megla's gonna be screaming, "Cut me, Mick!!" if you guys keep throwing haymakers at his list.

 

The thing that stood out most for me and that I agree with whole-heartedly is the dropoff after the first 5-6 RBs to the next group. This is the first time I've seen a good VBD list this year (and I haven't started mine yet) but I've been thinking that there was going to be a dropoff.

 

I think there's a huge benefit to drafting in the top 5 vs lower portion this season. Your pick is a no brainer there...only which RB you like more. Drafting 8th or 9th and none of those RBs or Manning drop to you? Ugh...I am going to hate being in that position.

 

Well done!

[Meglamaniac 380]

Megla's gonna be screaming, "Cut me, Mick!!" if you guys keep throwing haymakers at his list.

 

The thing that stood out most for me and that I agree with whole-heartedly is the dropoff after the first 5-6 RBs to the next group. This is the first time I've seen a good VBD list this year (and I haven't started mine yet) but I've been thinking that there was going to be a dropoff.

 

I think there's a huge benefit to drafting in the top 5 vs lower portion this season. Your pick is a no brainer there...only which RB you like more. Drafting 8th or 9th and none of those RBs or Manning drop to you? Ugh...I am going to hate being in that position.

 

Well done!

It's all good , that's the pont of thrwoing the list out there, see what others think, debate the issue and where its warrented reevealuate those players and thier situations.

 

I agree on the RBs, I even went so far as to say that after #6 no RB should be drafted until mid RD #2,of course that got me all kinds of screams, rather funny though

 

Thanks for the comments, I look forward to reveiwing your list once you have it compiled.

[orcish miscreant 0]

I didn't ignore anythng, anymore than you ignored the fact that Harrison's TDs stats are far superior than Waynes regardless of the # of receptions. You have Wayne increasing his Rec, Rec yards and Rec TDs, you attribute this to the trend of his increasing # of receptions over the last few seasons, but the stats dont show that, especially when it comes to TDs, where you have him increasing by @45% all the while lowering Harrison's TD production, whcih simply hasn't happened but once since 2000.

 

Again I will concede that I may need to move Wayne up the WR list a bit, but Harrison will continue to be my #1 WR.

 

I ignored the fact that Harrison's TDs are superior? I thought I put Harrison as having more TDs than Wayne...

 

Regarding Wayne, you say the stats don't show what I gave him? Stats show Wayne receptions 5 years straight. The only reason his yards went down last year was because his yards per receptions came down to earth. 2004 was a fluke, when Wayne had a 15.7 YPR. Look at my projections; despite the fact Wayne has 13 more receptions than 2004, he still has about as many yards. This is because I used his career yards per reception statistics, which is much lower than that in 2004. I use statistics (like total # of receptions x career yards per reception to get a yardage amount for the year) for my projections. Regarding TDs; Wayne averaged a TD for every 10.86 receptions he makes. When he gets 90 receptions, he should get 8 TDs. See how it works?

 

Harrison hasn't lowered his TD production but once since 2000? Are you kidding me? Let's take a look:

 

2000: 14 UP

2001: 15 UP

2002: 11 DOWN

2003: 10 DOWN

2004: 15 UP

2005: 12 DOWN

 

That's 3 times, not 1. In fact, if Harrison averaged a TD reception for every 8.43 recpetions he makes. So if he makes 80 receptions, he should have 9.5 TDs. However, here is where my personal opinion comes in. I believe that despite less receptions, Harrison will still be a main target in the red zone, and will get 11 TDs. I just spotted your man 1.5 TDs.