Strength of Schedule

[ratbastard1 0]

Has anyone checked the s.o.s. from a given year with the actual performance of that year?

 

I'm very curious if the s.o.s. analysis that we do each year is supported by the results.

 

It could be very interesting.

[jacklesize 0]

I've never actually done the analylsis but I do consider SOS when I draft my team, play a certain player or play a defense during the season.

 

If you do the analylsis -- I'd be curious to know what you come up with. I should be interesting.

[football is life 0]

Yes. Since I know nobody in my league are NOT big fans of forums, I'll share:

 

For three years I've drafted based on playoff SOS... and I've made the championship game 3 years in a row. In 2003, I grabbed Ahman Green... in 2004 Shaun Alexander... last year, the Carolina Panthers D -- works like a charm. Key is going somewhere that does a good job in the SOS analysis. I've gotten mine at http://www.footballdocs.com the past few years. FFtoday had SOS last year and looked good too, but I don't see yet on the site this year...?

[ratbastard1 0]

Yes. Since I know nobody in my league are NOT big fans of forums, I'll share:

 

For three years I've drafted based on playoff SOS... and I've made the championship game 3 years in a row. In 2003, I grabbed Ahman Green... in 2004 Shaun Alexander... last year, the Carolina Panthers D -- works like a charm. Key is going somewhere that does a good job in the SOS analysis. I've gotten mine at http://www.footballdocs.com the past few years. FFtoday had SOS last year and looked good too, but I don't see yet on the site this year...?

 

That sounds good but what are the results of SOS from pre-2005 and actual SOS formulated after 2005? 2004? Thats what I am talking about but Im not sure how to go about it. (im not the best # cruncher)

 

If results from this research prove SOS to be unpredictible then we are all taking SOS too serious.

 

Anyone?

[football is life 0]

That sounds good but what are the results of SOS from pre-2005 and actual SOS formulated after 2005? 2004? Thats what I am talking about but Im not sure how to go about it. (im not the best # cruncher)

 

If results from this research prove SOS to be unpredictible then we are all taking SOS too serious.

 

Anyone?

 

 

hmmmm.... unfortunately I can't help you there. I have a general trend... not specific item comparisons. So for instance, the top 2 or 3 teams with the most favorable schedule I target those players. I don't reach too far to get them vs. their ADP, but I favor them consistently when drafting. That is where my examples from above came from... clearly there have to be some busts too, but I can say that at least on the players I drafted based on SOS info, it worked.

 

Sorry -- hope that helps a little. Perhaps someone else has more detailed info? That would be great.

[ratbastard1 0]

hmmmm.... unfortunately I can't help you there. I have a general trend... not specific item comparisons. So for instance, the top 2 or 3 teams with the most favorable schedule I target those players. I don't reach too far to get them vs. their ADP, but I favor them consistently when drafting. That is where my examples from above came from... clearly there have to be some busts too, but I can say that at least on the players I drafted based on SOS info, it worked.

 

Sorry -- hope that helps a little. Perhaps someone else has more detailed info? That would be great.

 

 

Oh, I can see why you do it but i wonder if beyond the top teams the rest are really all over the place.

[adam smitty 0]

I do agree that looking at the last few weeks of the season is a good idea, but over analyzing a schedule is a bad idea IMO.

[Da Bomb 0]

my theory is that schedule plays a very small part in any variation for a player's overall stats.

 

why, you ask? look at the good players. pull up #s for manning or holt or harrison or guys like that. every year, the same stats. same YPC/YPA. same catches.

 

bottom line, good players produce good stats. doesnt matter who they play.

 

if you want to cater toward particular matchups, like playoffs, fine. but over a full season, the numbers have a way of strangely evening themselves out.l

[football is life 0]

my theory is that schedule plays a very small part in any variation for a player's overall stats.

 

why, you ask? look at the good players. pull up #s for manning or holt or harrison or guys like that. every year, the same stats. same YPC/YPA. same catches.

 

bottom line, good players produce good stats. doesnt matter who they play.

 

if you want to cater toward particular matchups, like playoffs, fine. but over a full season, the numbers have a way of strangely evening themselves out.l

 

True, but it is the TIMING of when they play. Season stats get smeared over 16 games.... I target the favorable playoff SOS first followed by regular season SOS (should have specified above). Big games over 3 game stretches bring home championships, but their season stats may not look that different. I think super stars are immune... that is what makes them super stars... but lower level super stars and upper level tier 2 players perhaps benefit form weak schedule? I don't know. Green is not the best example!

 

Now let me talk out of the other side of my mouth -- in 2003, Green had favorable playoff and regular season SOS... so slam dunk IMO. Turns out he had one of his best years (the best year maybe... don't have access to stats right now). Alexander had the best playoff SOS in 2004... and he delivered throughout my playoffs with big games. Also, I think it really helps wtih defenses too. Carolina stunk in 2004, but rocked and rolled in 2005. They played a lot of bad teams with horrible o-lines. (Granted they got healthy too... but they had a couple of big losses in 2005 too and managed to get rolling). So perhaps defenses the season SOS helps more? I don't know -- just tossing out theories.

 

Last -- I am with ratbastard1 -- does it just work with top teams? How does it hold up across the board? (Horrible team with great SOS). All of my examples in my original reply played for good teams. It could be a consideration. Good point.

[kristv 0]

Well, the one year that I went with SOS, I ended up picking up TO when he had his breakout year at SF, as well as Charlie Garner (one of his best years as well). I went on the information that SF was going to be behind all year, and be chucking it lots. They were also in a weak division (still are, IMO), which would help the stats as well. Turns out it was a great idea, and it was funny to go through the draft listening to the other guys say 'WHO?!' when I picked TO in the 3rd round of the draft. He ended up getting me to the championship game that year, which is the only year I've won my league (although I've been in the playoffs several times).