pacman_fl 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I have seen more posts this year than ever along the lines "I think he is due for an injury this year". I am not talking Fred Taylor, Dom Davis type of prediction, but instead Alexander, Tiki type of predictions (amongst others). I have been doing this a long time, but I find I learn something new each season. Hopefully someone can enlighten me of how they "predict injuries" for the oft not injured. How many FF vets think these boards have become a ruse to try on sway draft opinion by guys with 5,000+ posts floating these thought? (Most of this is tongue in cheek, but I couldn't resist.) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jarvis Basnight 119 Posted July 25, 2006 age + miles = higher % chance for injury b/c the body breaks down. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GemMaster 0 Posted July 25, 2006 age + miles = higher % chance for injury b/c the body breaks down. I agree. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted July 25, 2006 age + miles = higher % chance for injury b/c the body breaks down. or it could just mean a finely tuned athlete that keeps himself in top shape compared to the guy that just has tons of ability and comes into camp every year w/o preparing properly in the offseason to help prevent injuries... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mattb333 0 Posted July 25, 2006 age + miles = higher % chance for injury b/c the body breaks down. In that case Jerry Rice was a divine being (which he might have been anyway) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pacman_fl 0 Posted July 25, 2006 or it could just mean a finely tuned athlete that keeps himself in top shape compared to the guy that just has tons of ability and comes into camp every year w/o preparing properly in the offseason to help prevent injuries... Agree with all. BUT, even the "workout masters" have injury before they may be due. Serious part of my question now - who is "due" this year? Tiki makes sense due to his age, BUT I would still take him Top 5. Rudi/Portis are "due" based on the amount of carries the past 2 years, but they are also are Top 5/10. I am REALLY not trying to sound like a newbie here, but some of this is a crap shoot, yet some posters are adamant in their assessment. Tiki, Harrison, Gonzalez...I can see due to age/use. Ronnie Brown, Chris Brown, Caddy...I can see due to previous history. But, isn't 3/4 of the RB's in league "due" for some reason. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cuse9 129 Posted July 25, 2006 I think their off season workouts play a huge part in injureis. Rice was mentioned above and he is well known for his rediculous off season workouts. Isaac Bruce was plagued by injuries about three years into his career and changed his entire off season workout and went on a tear...injury free for quite a few years. Now if only we knew what kind of workout Deshaun Foster was doing? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted July 25, 2006 I think their off season workouts play a huge part in injureis. Rice was mentioned above and he is well known for his rediculous off season workouts. Isaac Bruce was plagued by injuries about three years into his career and changed his entire off season workout and went on a tear...injury free for quite a few years. i agree with this. Rice's conditioning regime was intense. and one of the main factors in preventing injury is not just strength and conditioning training - it's stretching and flexibility training. It's been proven in many a medical study that guys with better flexibility get hurt less - and i think that's what some vets learn as they go through their years in the NFL that others don't. That along w/ the know-how to get out of bounds and avoid the big hits - something Tiki does very well which has kept him going for so long. Warrick Dunn is another guy you look at and think he's going to get broken in half every play, but he knows how to get out of the way just enough to not get crushed... Now if only we knew what kind of workout Deshaun Foster was doing? problem w/ Foster is that all of his injuries are different, so it's not like it's just one problem area. I think he just needs more milk in his diet to help build stronger bones... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
uubeee 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Alot of it is chance. As noted above, Jerry Rice was almost injury free for a long long time. But the one time he hurt his knee was a thing of bad luck. He was running a reverse and got caught in an strange position. He planted his knee and got pulled back (if I remember it right). So, even if you are a workhorse, you can get hurt on one bad play. Personally, I don't pay attention to most injuries. Guys like Alexander have done so well staying away from injury. Yet others like Foster never can get away from it. I just try to avoid those high ceiling oft injured guys each year. problem w/ Foster is that all of his injuries are different, so it's not like it's just one problem area. I think he just needs more milk in his diet to help build stronger bones... I think Charles Rogers tried to get more milk, but then failed the drug test... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
D'ohmer Simpson 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I pay no attention whatsoever to who thinks who will be injured, or is due to be injured this year. In no way at all does it affect my drafting. It's purely speculative. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
akaoni 0 Posted July 25, 2006 In the end it boils down to luck. Sometimes guys get hit wrong, and get injured, it's the nature of the game. Even so, I'm not going to lie awake at night worrying about whether or not Alexander or Tiki are "due". They have both been relativly durable in their careers, and seem to have a knack for avoiding big hits, so I'm not worried about them. To me, it seems like wishful thinking (or fear, depending on whether or not you have the guys) which drives these kind of injury predicitons. That said, it certianly is important to look at age, wear and tear, and injury history when drafting guys. If a running back is on the wrong side of 30, you might want to move him down the draft board a bit, especially when there's a good upside guy next to him. Or, if they have a more signifigant injury history, sometimes it's best to avoid them all together. The oft mentioned Foster and Taylor are good examples. For these reasons, I'm ranking Portis above Tiki this year (even in a PPR league), I still like Tiki, but the combination of age and upside for Portis give him the edge. For a guy like Taylor, I probably will wait on him, until he drops below ADP (5th round or later) and he becomes a good value-risk/reward kind of pick. If someone picks him earlier, so be it. In the end it's all about evaluating risk vs. potential production and ranking the backs accordingly. Injuries will always happen, and its impossible to avoid them. When you've done all the analysis you can, you just have to hope you'll get lucky... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackYourNut 47 Posted July 25, 2006 Peyton Manning is due... Without Edge this year, I predict he misses 3 games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pacman_fl 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Peyton Manning is due... Without Edge this year, I predict he misses 3 games. No problem - it's the "system" so Sorgi will go for 1,200 yds and 14 TD's during that span Make sure you "handcuff" him.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
famousb 11 Posted July 25, 2006 That said, it certianly is important to look at age, wear and tear, and injury history when drafting guys. If a running back is on the wrong side of 30, you might want to move him down the draft board a bit, especially when there's a good upside guy next to him. Or, if they have a more signifigant injury history, sometimes it's best to avoid them all together. The oft mentioned Foster and Taylor are good examples. i'll agree w/ the fact that if a guy is getting a little long in tooth i'll move him down my rankings a tad, but it's not because i'm afraid of injury, it's more because everyone loses a step or two as they get older and no matter how much off-season training you do it still happens. If you don't think it does, look at world-class sprinters, why aren't there really any over the age of 32? Take a guy like CuMar, i'm not worried he's going to get hurt, but i do think he doesn't have the explosion or break-away speed that he used to - it's just not there. As for Tiki, he still has that speed, he doesn't take big hits, and he plays on an improving offense that gets him the ball in the open field so he doesn't get crushed going up the middle. So i leave him ahead of Portis, especially since the thought of 3-wide in WAS makes me think more of a pass-first offense which isn't good for Portis' running style... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
akaoni 0 Posted July 25, 2006 i'll agree w/ the fact that if a guy is getting a little long in tooth i'll move him down my rankings a tad, but it's not because i'm afraid of injury, it's more because everyone loses a step or two as they get older and no matter how much off-season training you do it still happens. If you don't think it does, look at world-class sprinters, why aren't there really any over the age of 32? Take a guy like CuMar, i'm not worried he's going to get hurt, but i do think he doesn't have the explosion or break-away speed that he used to - it's just not there. As for Tiki, he still has that speed, he doesn't take big hits, and he plays on an improving offense that gets him the ball in the open field so he doesn't get crushed going up the middle. So i leave him ahead of Portis, especially since the thought of 3-wide in WAS makes me think more of a pass-first offense which isn't good for Portis' running style... I don't think that Saunders is going to be a pass-first type of play caller, if anything, they'll use the run to open up the pass. They might spread the feild a bit with 3 WR sets as well, but as I understand it, that just feeds into the zone-blocking scheme and opens up the feild to Portis. Either way, there's little seperating Tiki and Clinton in my book. If I had the #5 spot in the draft, I'd be happy if either fell to me... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RamslovaMartzhata 3 Posted July 25, 2006 To me... it's just a numbers game and deals primarily with RB's. The fact is, football is a physical sport and being a running back you are in a position where you have 11 guys, about 7 of them bigger than you... trying to hit you as hard as they can. The more times you run the ball, the more chances you have to get hit in the wrong way in which no amount of physical training can prevent injury. I don't know what the % of RB's that miss time is... but I would guess it is far over 50%. A good example is Alexander. The guy has been nicked up.. but I believe he has missed no or possibly one game in something like 6 years. That is just unheard of for a modern day RB. Or if you take a guy like LJ... who is likely to get the rock around 350 times... his chances of injury are greater. It is speculative, but with some reasoning. But by no means is it an exact science. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NewbieJr 541 Posted July 25, 2006 I have a feeling that Charles Rogers' collar bone is due to snap soon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
g5jamz 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Foster is looking more and more appealing to me as a RB2. Yes...injury plagued...but I'd almost gamble my (12pick/12team) 3rd/4th rounder on it. I'd hate it...but I couldn't gamble on leaving DeAngelo out there for 24 picks. Keyshawn/healthy Colbert helps in the running game. Solid blocking TEs and pulling guards. I just have a hunch. Look what happened to Steve Smith after his injury. TC will tell it all and I so look forward to reading the forums this weekend. HOLY S**T I'm pumped! Like others have mentioned...age/usage. I worry about Tiki Barber. I worry about SA. I worry about Edge. Where I was previously worried about Curtin Martin, I'm less now due to the Jets post-season line upgrades. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phurfur 70 Posted July 25, 2006 If a player holds out, miss camp, etc. it seems he is more likely to get hurt. I shy away from these players. I also have a rule that if I rank two players equally and there is a significant age difference I go with the younger player. That being said, there is really no way to acurately predict who will get hurt. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ilov80s 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I haven't read this whole topic so maybe this was mentioned, but I also think that the player's style should be taken into consideration. That is why Alexander is such a great pick. Although he is a big guy, he tries very hard to avoid contact. He rarely takes big hits and is happy to trot out of bounds. This helps keep him healthy and fresh. Cadilac is a guy that comes to mind who is very much the opposite. He is small, but never shys away from contact. He will lower his pads into a linebacker who has a 30 pound advantage. Rarely will you see Caddy not fight for the extra yards. It has lead to a collegiate and professional career littered with injuries. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GetThePoint 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Like others have mentioned...age/usage. I worry about Tiki Barber. I worry about SA. I worry about Edge. Where I was previously worried about Curtin Martin, I'm less now due to the Jets post-season line upgrades. So you are less worried about Curtis Martin because he's 33 and the Jets will be starting 2 rookies on the O-line? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ras66not99 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I think he just needs more milk in his diet to help build stronger bones... No that's Charles Rogers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jocstrap 8 Posted July 25, 2006 I just can't trust camp holdouts - this year it will be Ashley Lelie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0 Posted July 25, 2006 I don't waste my time worrying about injuries unless the guy was seriously injured the year before. I'd stay away from Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, and some other quality players, but "Tiki is old" or "Edge is old" doesn't work for me. Of course I passed on Larry Johnson last year thinking Priest would be fine so I guess I'm just a jackass! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
esoitl 0 Posted July 25, 2006 Tiki, Harrison, Gonzalez...I can see due to age/use ummm.... do you realize Harrison is hardly ever injured thats not fluke, watch him he knows how to get down and not take hits by trying to make too much out of nothing the guy is smart, prepares and knows how not to get hit yet still perform cant say i would ever predict him to be injured from use or otherwise Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
