Finding value in rounds 1-10

[Milwalkeysbeast 0]

Each year, everyone focuses on the first round and who will be the first pick. If someone picks a player who isn't in the "experts 1st round" list, they are shunned and poked fun at by their league peers. There's always the guy who picks the top TE in the 2nd or 3rd round, always the guy who picks the top rated defense in the first 6 -7 rounds, and always the guy who picks who is supposed to be picked where the experts and mock drafters say they should be picked. Not saying mocking is bad, but sometimes it makes you avoid good players and possible future studs because you didn't get "good value".

 

And EVERY year, many of the concensus first rounders end up flopping big time. The first round is important, but fantasy championships are made in the middle rounds, rounds 6-12. This is the area where good players become great players, i.e. the stars of tomorrow, today. That being said, careful detail and selection must be made in these rounds to build the backbone of your roster and make sure you have an ace in the sleeve in case your "stud" decides to holdout, get imjured, or whatever other excuse people come up with to say why their fantasy team is dead in the water in week 5.

 

Quarterbacks

Personally, I never use a 1, 2, or 3 pick on a QB unless there is exceptional value lying in front of me. You can always find a top 5 QB in round 5 or 6 - Hasselback and Palmer were in these areas last year. This year, the class involves the following players:

 

1. Dante Culpepper - Just 1 year removed from being the lock for the #2 overall QB "supposed" to be selected, the experts have Cpep in rounds 7 and 8. This guy will end up being a top 5 QB again and prove all his critics wrong. The only worry here is injury. He is surrounded by talent at WR and RB and should regain old form. Last year he had Burleson and no RB. Replace those with Chambers (another underrated jem) and Ronnie Brown and you have the makeup of a very nice offense. If he stays healthy, he will probably drop into the 5 or 6 round, at which point you should snatch him up faster than a stripper can pick up a blowpop off your friends' mouth with no hands.

 

2. Donavan McNabb - Philly homer here, but along with the rest of the Eagles, McNabb is underrated this year. From training camp, he appears willing to start running again if need be. Reggie Brown has looked very impressive, and Bwest is a receiver in the backfield. In a system where you pass first, pass second and run third, McNabb should end up a top 6-7 QB. Most have him pegged at 5-6, when he should end up at #2,3.

 

3. Drew Brees - Another case where injury will leave the conservative owners away from selecting him. People say he no longer has his TE crutch in Gates. Even if Brees NEEDS a go-to TE type player, NO is decent at the position. Throw newly signed Reggie Bush into the mix along with pass catching Deuce Mac and Joe Horn, and you have a case where a smart QB can flourish. Brees is a smart player who will use these tools and have a top 10 year. More than a serviceable QB, he can be had after you get your RB and WR starters set.

 

Let the fool pick Peyton Manning at #5 overall. Stock up on RB and WR and find a QB gem in the mid rounds. Ask him how he did last year with Manning when he started off cold for the first few weeks.

 

[/u]Running Back[/u]

 

If you don't have one of the top 3 picks, the experts and mockers all seem to think you have a crapshoot in the first round. Their second tier and third tier lists are longer and more drawn out than Superman Returns. In this situation, you have to adapt to what others select and you should have at least 2 steady RB's in the first 4 rounds.

 

Of the second tier, the guy that stands out is Portis. This is the year he could end up being elected for the 2007 1st overall pick. But he needs no description, as does any other 2nd tier RB. These are the guys who everyone loves to read about.

 

In tier 3, you have Lamont Jordan and Ronnie Brown who are campaigning to be top 5 guys that can behad in late round 1, early round 2. Both are relatively injury free, are the prime RB in their system, and are pure runners who are both coming off their first full year as starters. Think LT before he exploded. Either one of these guys can end up top 5, so don't be worriedif you get "stuck" with pick #10 and you NEED a RB in round 1 or 2.

 

Another guy to watch for is Dominic Rhodes. Still young at 27, he has held the reigns in the backfield for an injured James, and done so successfully. Sure, Addai could steal some carries and the Colts' brass may not believe in the durability of Rhodes, but the Colts offense shouldn't miss a step with him as their guy. They don't need him to be a 350 carry/year guy. He should be fine with 300 carries, and with his 4.5 ypc average over his career, he should be good for 1300 yards and 10-14 TD's. the Colts targeted Edge 78 times in the redzone last year, compared to 20-30 with WR Harrison and Wayne. He can be had cheap.

 

Deangelo Williams may be a Caddy/Ronnie Brown of 2006. Oft injured Rb's are the only obstacle in his way. If you get to late round 6 and still have a question mark at RB, he is a great guy to pick. I'd even pick him over a handcuff RB in round 6-7, where the backup RB gambit typically begins.

 

And finally, Rudi Johnson doesn't get enough respect. He may put up OVERALL top 10 #'s, but he comes on very strong in the fantasy playoffs. When the temp drops, he heats up and will be rewarding his drafters with much of his season fantasy points clumped right on to the end of the year and fantasy playoffs.

 

Wide Receiver

 

This the the area where judgement and attention to detail are very important. There are many good QB's in the mid rounds than an be servicable as your #1, if not be great #1's. Add that to most RB's worth a damn being selected in the first 3 rounds and you have the land of what seems to be mediocre wideouts. This year, however, there seem to be more studly WR available, you just have to look. Again, these are not sleepers at all. None of the guys mentioned above are, they are just guys that could end up having monster years. Guys stuck in the middle of the tier who will be ranked higher this time next year.

 

1. Chris Chambers - He may strat slow with Cpep possibly not being around for week 1 or 2, but his talent is def there. He can be the top WR in the league at some point soon, esp with Culpepper throwing to him. Even if Harrington ends up tossing the ball in Miami, Chambers should excel. While harrington is horrible, how much worse is he than his Dolphin QB predecessors? He is not great, but he is no Ray Lucas. Expect AT LEAST similar #'s to last year, but don't be shocked to see him finish top 3.

 

2. Plaxico Burress - Eli Manning will eventually show up his older brother. As he continues to improve, Burress will be the primary benefactor or all that Eli learns. He is still young enough to get over his DIVA attitude, but what WR doesn't think their $hit comes out polished? Buy stock in him now as he will improve alognside Eli in what could be both of their breakout years.

 

3. Mark Clayton - He will be helped out by Mason being the #1. McNair will help his stock as well. Clayton started to come on strong later in the year and should continue that momentum this year and vault himself to a decent #3 WR or flex option. Depending on whether Mason and McNair just keep to themselves, he just may take his game to the next level.

 

4. Reggie Brown - another homer pick, this kid looks very good in camp. He makes good cuts, is hard to defend, and should put up decent #2 fantasy #'s. If the Eagles can get some production out of a 2nd WR, his stock goes up even more.

 

5. Matt Jones - He will end up being the #1 guy in Jax. He has freakish ability and should put up decent #'s by years' end. He can be had very late in drafts and could pay off nicely.

 

6. Laverneous Coles - The Jets QB situation sucks, but Coles is a nice go to guy and will put up solid #'s either way. Again, he is a good guy to have on your team because he gets alot of looks in his teams' offense. He will get alot of receptions and if Pennington can stay healthy, his TD's should go up. If you get poins per reception, he is great value.

 

7 Kevin Curtis - He WILL end up being #2 on the high octane Rams' offense and will put up great #s, especially if your league gives points for >50 yard TD's. At seasons' end, Bruce will no longer be a factor. He is a great pick in round 10-11.

 

Tight End

 

1. Chris Cooley - Could end up top 3 in the end. He got many looks last year, and with more guys to take the ability of opposing defenses to key on him, he should have improved #'s over last year. He can be had in round 7-8 in most leagues and will put up round 4 type numbers.

 

Kicker

 

Who cares, honestly? You can pick Faud Reveiz in round 23 as your only kicker and end up picking up a hot free agent kicker by week 2 who ends up being #1 by years' end - see Neil Rackers.

 

Defense

 

Somewhat more importatn than kickers, but still very unpredictable. I'd rather take a shot on a RB or WR in round 12-16 than pickup the supposedly #1 defense. Another position where some team comes out of nowhere to end up being at least a very serviceable defense. If you skimp out on defense, you MUST pay attention to defensive free agents in weeks 1 through 3. Pickup the hot defense and ride it on out. Take a shot on Maurice Morris, Najeh Davenport, Pittman, or Mike Anderson before you take an overrated defense simply because everyone is picking up defenses. In the end, when you have a Willie Parker type find by mid year, along with you Colts defense pickup in week 1, you will be in better shape than the guy who took Peyton Manning #1, Antonio Gates #3, Steelers defense in round 7, and Adam Vinatieri in round 8.

 

 

That is all.

[swamp dog 0]

nice post. i'll give you a for effort here. seriously.

[xxx 0]

i had a draft today

 

Out of the players on your list i drafted culpepper, portis, rhodes, plaxico, laverneous, curtis.

So if your right ill end up with the

[waxg 3]

Good post, although I'm not sure about Coles. Jets may be the worst team in the league this year.

[De Novo 0]

for effort

for content

[mobb_deep 921]

Nice little write up. Not sure I buy into alot of your choices but you're definitely correct about the middle/late rounds.

 

Couple guys I like this year...

 

RB:

 

C. Dillon: Relative to where he is being drafted at this point (45-50th pick) he's a steal. Although admitably not in his prime he still ran in 12 in only 11 games last season. Even if Maroney steals some carries you know Dillon is still getting the goal-lines.

 

D. Foster: Obviously durability is the concern with this guy. When he is healthy he's an elusive runner with break-out potential. Carolina is run focused with a good o-line and the defense to keep them in games. Sure Deangelo Williams is in the picture but the kid has never taken a snap in the NFL (or even been to an NFL game). However If you can get him as a cuff for cheap I wouldn't blame you.

 

J. Lewis: I like Lewis alot in the third round to go with my stud RB/WR. He's what 26 years old and in his 6th season? The edition of McNair back with Mason and another talented young kid Clayton along with Heap is going to help the running game emmensely. Lewis has the size and durability to be a workhorse week in and week out. He might not see 2200 and 14 combined ever again but 1500 and 8-10 is very likely with the support he has around him now.

 

WR:

 

Drew Bennett: I love this guy in the late 6th early 7th round. Him and Volek had amazing chemistry in 04 and Jeff Fisher is pretty much saying this is his time and his team. As long as Volek puts together a respectable first couple starts we shouldn't need to worry about Vince for the remainder of the season.

 

Derrick Mason: 5th round... 80+, 1100 and 7 average over 5 years as the #1 with McNair. Even last year with Boller throwing ducks to him he managed over 1000 yards and 85 receptions. Conservatively 1000 and 7 should be no problem this year.

 

 

maybe I'll add QB and TE later. now I got to bed

[DaveJ 0]

Not a bad effort at all.. good job. I would of titled this differently though, as Focusing on Value vs Potential in the mid rounds.

 

I think you hit one some of the value picks this year, but I also think that some of your players are probably already 'found'. The QB's you have listed are already bonafide studs, but comin off lackluster years and having question marks, they will be good value picks.

 

The RB's... I've never been one to place too much stock in the mockers etc.. All Rb's are crap shoots due to injury potential. Anything in the top 8 or 9 and you'll have a good solid back, its the numbers the top guys put up that can carry your team though. However, pairing up the right combination as a late in the snake drafter can give you an edge or at least even things out, for example guy picking first with SA and someone like Dunn at the return vs your Jordan/Rudi and a guy like Brown or Caddie. With the picks at 4-14 being fairly even if you grab the right two, your point total from your starting RB's could easily top the early snakers, not to mention you get quality WR's with your next picks.

 

I think you nailed the top 2 guys to grab at WR this year, but Clayton and Brown may be stretches... Brown is an interesting pick though since PHI doesn't have much else unless they land Porter in a trade. Mason is the goto guy in BAL so while Clayton may be a value pick as a #2 with McNair there and in the future, his upside value this year isnt stud material.

 

I like your TE pick... and I agree with his potential of cracking the top 3 or 4 this year. With Gonzo in decline and questions for Gates, we could see a tight grouping of 1-4 with Gates, Heap, Cooley and Gonzo or Stevens... The appeal of Cooley is the short yardage TD's he seems to horde and if last year is any indication, he could develope into a stud very quickly on TD's alone.

[Nate Burleson's Burly Son 0]

Excellent read! I agree with much of what you say.

[lguero1 4]

[NAn 39]

Each year, everyone focuses on the first round and who will be the first pick. If someone picks a player who isn't in the "experts 1st round" list, they are shunned and poked fun at by their league peers. There's always the guy who picks the top TE in the 2nd or 3rd round, always the guy who picks the top rated defense in the first 6 -7 rounds, and always the guy who picks who is supposed to be picked where the experts and mock drafters say they should be picked. Not saying mocking is bad, but sometimes it makes you avoid good players and possible future studs because you didn't get "good value".

 

1. I agree with DaveJ that likely would have titled this different: you say mid rounds, but then list many players that are going anywhere from rnds 1-5, usually considered early rounds.

 

2. Not sure if I understand your pt about 'avoiding good players for possible future studs' re: value.

Drafting for value doesn't have as much to do with vets v breakout guys, as with maximizing your draft.

 

If you like Chester Taylor to breakout to be a top12 RB...does that mean you grab him in the 1st round?

Most would say, 'no'...grab a more 'consensus' RB in the 1st rnd (that's where mocks help for one) then grab Taylor in 3rd, maybe 2nd if feel that strongly about him.

 

League peers laugh (asinine IMO, aside from trash talk, as I agree that many consensus top guys falter, and many consensus mid/later guys do well), not necessarily b/c they don't think Taylor is worth a 1st rnder (though they may), but b/c you WASTED that value by grabbing him there.

 

If you like Taylor....what would you rather have:

 

LT, Harrison, Taylor

or

Taylor, Harrison, Reuben Droughns

 

That's the pt of value and mocks....maximizing your draft by seeing what many ffers are doing/thinking so you can get the most

 

What you may be talking about is that 'NO one KNOWS the future'.

Folks may have laughed at someone taking SSmith in the 2nd round over Terrell Owens...but b/c no one knows what any player will actually do, those that laugh may have felt smug during the draft, but we know how that turned out: Smith was #1 amongst WRs and Owens was suspended after half a season.Some

 

But in this scenario, it still doesn't change fact that if you took Smith in the 2nd last year, you still squandered his value.

 

I read one guy bragging how he picked Palmer last year in rnd3 and everyone laughed. And how, looking back at the season, the guy said he got last laugh.

 

Kudos to him for grabbing Palmer...but he still wasted his value.

Those that draft for value/use mocks as tools and liked Palmer, would have known that Palmer was going in 7th/8th rnd in mocks. So they would have went with a RB/WR in the 3rd and STILL grabbed Palmer in the 7th (heck 6th if you really liked him).

 

Screw the 'experts'...IMO no such thing in FF, as we're all just making educated guesses, I don't care who you are.

 

But drafting for value/using mocks has little to do with what experts think anyway...it's using what FFers think in general to maximize your draft.

[Chronic Husker 86]

1. I agree with DaveJ that likely would have titled this different: you say mid rounds, but then list many players that are going anywhere from rnds 1-5, usually considered early rounds.

 

2. Not sure if I understand your pt about 'avoiding good players for possible future studs' re: value.

Drafting for value doesn't have as much to do with vets v breakout guys, as with maximizing your draft.

 

If you like Chester Taylor to breakout to be a top12 RB...does that mean you grab him in the 1st round?

Most would say, 'no'...grab a more 'consensus' RB in the 1st rnd (that's where mocks help for one) then grab Taylor in 3rd, maybe 2nd if feel that strongly about him.

 

League peers laugh (asinine IMO, aside from trash talk, as I agree that many consensus top guys falter, and many consensus mid/later guys do well), not necessarily b/c they don't think Taylor is worth a 1st rnder (though they may), but b/c you WASTED that value by grabbing him there.

 

If you like Taylor....what would you rather have:

 

LT, Harrison, Taylor

or

Taylor, Harrison, Reuben Droughns

 

That's the pt of value and mocks....maximizing your draft by seeing what many ffers are doing/thinking so you can get the most

 

What you may be talking about is that 'NO one KNOWS the future'.

Folks may have laughed at someone taking SSmith in the 2nd round over Terrell Owens...but b/c no one knows what any player will actually do, those that laugh may have felt smug during the draft, but we know how that turned out: Smith was #1 amongst WRs and Owens was suspended after half a season.Some

 

But in this scenario, it still doesn't change fact that if you took Smith in the 2nd last year, you still squandered his value.

 

I read one guy bragging how he picked Palmer last year in rnd3 and everyone laughed. And how, looking back at the season, the guy said he got last laugh.

 

Kudos to him for grabbing Palmer...but he still wasted his value.

Those that draft for value/use mocks as tools and liked Palmer, would have known that Palmer was going in 7th/8th rnd in mocks. So they would have went with a RB/WR in the 3rd and STILL grabbed Palmer in the 7th (heck 6th if you really liked him).

 

Screw the 'experts'...IMO no such thing in FF, as we're all just making educated guesses, I don't care who you are.

 

But drafting for value/using mocks has little to do with what experts think anyway...it's using what FFers think in general to maximize your draft.

 

Damn, NAn. Have a kid and instantly start putting decent posts together?

 

I agree with this wholeheartedly. This thread title is misleading. A lot of leagues are won in the middle rounds. That's where doing your homework pays off. The guy with the best evaluations, the best cheatsheet, wins the league. He might be off on a pick or two, but ends up with the best draft. Generally, he's the guy that tiers his players, stocks up on RB, waits on QB and makes one or two picks where the guys in the room go, "huh?"

 

After the draft, the other owners ask themselves, "How the fock did he draft this team?"

[Zackattack 0]

I did a draft a few weeks back and got Culpepper in the 5th and Mcnabb in the 6th. I couldn't pass him up and at the time I was not sure on Culpeppers knee.

[Milwalkeysbeast 0]

Nice little write up. Not sure I buy into alot of your choices but you're definitely correct about the middle/late rounds.

 

Couple guys I like this year...

 

RB:

 

C. Dillon: Relative to where he is being drafted at this point (45-50th pick) he's a steal. Although admitably not in his prime he still ran in 12 in only 11 games last season. Even if Maroney steals some carries you know Dillon is still getting the goal-lines.

 

D. Foster: Obviously durability is the concern with this guy. When he is healthy he's an elusive runner with break-out potential. Carolina is run focused with a good o-line and the defense to keep them in games. Sure Deangelo Williams is in the picture but the kid has never taken a snap in the NFL (or even been to an NFL game). However If you can get him as a cuff for cheap I wouldn't blame you.

 

J. Lewis: I like Lewis alot in the third round to go with my stud RB/WR. He's what 26 years old and in his 6th season? The edition of McNair back with Mason and another talented young kid Clayton along with Heap is going to help the running game emmensely. Lewis has the size and durability to be a workhorse week in and week out. He might not see 2200 and 14 combined ever again but 1500 and 8-10 is very likely with the support he has around him now.

 

WR:

 

Drew Bennett: I love this guy in the late 6th early 7th round. Him and Volek had amazing chemistry in 04 and Jeff Fisher is pretty much saying this is his time and his team. As long as Volek puts together a respectable first couple starts we shouldn't need to worry about Vince for the remainder of the season.

 

Derrick Mason: 5th round... 80+, 1100 and 7 average over 5 years as the #1 with McNair. Even last year with Boller throwing ducks to him he managed over 1000 yards and 85 receptions. Conservatively 1000 and 7 should be no problem this year.

maybe I'll add QB and TE later. now I got to bed

 

 

Yeah I like Mason alot as well. I put in Clayont's name simply because I started seeing theplayers I liked didn't focus on the middle rounds, making the title misleading. I like either Clayton or Mason - 1 of them will end up leading the Ravens WR stats and being a top 10-15 WR. Clayton seems a better value in the later rounds, but Mason isn't bad value either.