Anyone using a "modified" serpentine this year?

[pipeman 18]

Restarting our 5 year/ 12 team keeper this year, and have implemented three rule changes that dramatically affect the draft on Sunday. Besides going to ppr format and having a blind draw to select position slots on draft day, we've also decided to try a staggered serpentine. For those that have never experienced one, it goes like this.

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12

12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1

2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1

1,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2

3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2

2,1,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3...

and so on, moving up one position on each odd round.

 

My question- based on this format, what position has provided the best results? I'm starting to think I'd most like to draw out of the 3 spot, but I'd like to hear from others who have used this system before.

Thanks in advance- pipeman

[dirty dug 0]

So the person who picks 1.01 has the 1st, 24th and 36th picks? That does not seem equitable at all.

[pipeman 18]

So the person who picks 1.01 has the 1st, 24th and 36th picks? That does not seem equitable at all.

Yes, the 1.01 gets 1,24,36 and 37. Reasoning for the change- guys thought that the middle picks were always getting caught at the end of runs, and this format eventually allows for everyone to get back-to-back picks.

[sirensong 111]

back-to-back picks are nifty and all, but you have to consider where those back-to-back picks fall. the guy who gets them in the 1st/2nd round is probably going to be a bit better off than the guy who gets them in the 11th/12th.

 

let's look at the numbers for a 12teamer, using simple, unweighted DP quantification--lower numbers are better.

 

as a theoretical start point, the best possible place to be in would obviously be the 1st pick in a non-snake. with picks 1, 13, and 25, he would have a "quality score" of 39. naturally, this is far better that team 12, with picks 12, 24, and 36, for a QS of 72.

 

serp drafts are designed to address this inequity by evening out the QS every 2 rounds. in your draft, after 4 rounds, every team will have a QS of 98.

 

but let's look at your modified version through three rounds:

 

team 1: 1, 24, 36=61

team 2: 2, 23, 25=50

team 3: 3, 22, 26=51

team 4: 4, 21, 27=52

team 5: 5, 20, 28=53

team 6: 6, 19, 29=54

team 7: 7, 18, 30=55

team 8: 8, 17, 31=56

team 9: 9, 16, 32=57

team 10: 10, 15, 33=58

team 11: 11, 14, 34=59

team 12: 12, 13, 35=60

 

so we see that team 2 is quantitatively best after 3 rounds, far ahead of team 1. granted, this will get evened out in the next round, but remember that player impact value decays as you progress through your draft--the 4th round turnaround pick will be of less objective value than an improved 3rd round slot.

 

we also have to consider the issue of supply at a given position. there are what...16 true featured backs in the NFL right now? imagine the frustration of team 1 as he watches back after back fall off the board. granted, he has LJ, but the fact that he doesn't get 24/25 means that he's in a very difficult position. he has to grab any available RB at 24, but he doesn't have the turnaround to pick up a top WR as compensation. contrast that with team 12's RB/RB/WR potential.

 

what i'd encourage you to do is to extend these numbers to the 7th round, just to get an idea of raw DP quality. then go back and work through some ADP and high-quality mocks to see where the tier breaks are. this'll give you a pretty good picture of the values you'd be getting at each position.

[RicemanX 20]

all are kinda wierd.

 

we're just doing:

 

1-12

12-1

12-1

1-12

12-1

1-12

and so on

[tiggo25 4]

let's look at the numbers for a 12teamer, using simple, unweighted DP quantification--lower numbers are better.

 

How would you quantify a similar situation using one keeper player? In my league we kept a player this year for the first time. Draft order was last place to first. Serpentine method used. No cost for the keeper. So, not surprisingly the teams picking 12,11,10,9 had the top 3 RBs from last year. My arguement was that the serpentine draft method gives a huge advantage to the teams drafting at the bottom. The owner that has LJ will now draft 1.12, 2.1, in essence giving him 3 out of the first 25 players (12 keepers), while the last place team gets: 1.1, 2.12, which is 3 out of the top 36.

 

Maybe I wasn't explaining it to them correctly. Any thoughts?

[sirensong 111]

How would you quantify a similar situation using one keeper player? In my league we kept a player this year for the first time. Draft order was last place to first. Serpentine method used. No cost for the keeper. So, not surprisingly the teams picking 12,11,10,9 had the top 3 RBs from last year. My arguement was that the serpentine draft method gives a huge advantage to the teams drafting at the bottom. The owner that has LJ will now draft 1.12, 2.1, in essence giving him 3 out of the first 25 players (12 keepers), while the last place team gets: 1.1, 2.12, which is 3 out of the top 36.

 

Maybe I wasn't explaining it to them correctly. Any thoughts?

 

you explained it right--they just aren't catching on.

 

personally, i feel that when you combine keepers with draft position based on last year's finish, serpentine drafting is the wrong approach. the entire point of worst-team-gets-#1 pick is to even out the starting point. combining a redraft-style serpentine with a single keeper system doesn't even things out--it biases everything towards the guy with the best keeper. he almost can't lose.

 

to put it another way, a serpentine is designed to cancel out draft position advantage--theoretically, no one position is better than any other. so it is pointless to force the worst-place guy from last year into the #1/24 pick, because he's no better off there than at picks 12/13--there is no compensation. it can even be counterproductive, as in your example.

 

in the NFL, better draft position is the compensation, and the means by which parity is developed. if you want good, competitive parity in your league, you have to figure out a way to compensate last year's weaker teams. there are a lot of ways to do this--additional draft picks...straight draft order for several rounds...and so on. but most importantly, the lower-ranked guys have to have a means to get competitive during the draft phase, or the season is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

[eliplaxshock 0]

our league has just changed to a regular serpentine draft this year, but in years past the league redrafted every two rounds. I was a big fan of this type of draft, because im one that attempts to beat the system and trades picks to get exactly where i want to be. the people against it thought that you can get screwed if you have 1.12, 2.12, then 3.7 lets say. but in my opinion it spices up the draft...curious what you think about this format

 

[PaintGuru 0]

our league has just changed to a regular serpentine draft this year, but in years past the league redrafted every two rounds. I was a big fan of this type of draft, because im one that attempts to beat the system and trades picks to get exactly where i want to be. the people against it thought that you can get screwed if you have 1.12, 2.12, then 3.7 lets say. but in my opinion it spices up the draft...curious what you think about this format

 

 

We used to redraw and finally this year we got enough people to vote to make it into a regular serpentine draft. I hated redrawing....I don't want spice in my draft, I want known positions so I can plan accordingly. I already need to make enough adjustments while drafting, I don't need to make one more because of my draft position changing every 2 rounds.

[Phurfur 70]

I played in a league that used this format and one thing is for certain, the farther down you draft the more you are screwed. To me it makes no sense.

[pipeman 18]

back-to-back picks are nifty and all, but you have to consider where those back-to-back picks fall. the guy who gets them in the 1st/2nd round is probably going to be a bit better off than the guy who gets them in the 11th/12th.

 

let's look at the numbers for a 12teamer, using simple, unweighted DP quantification--lower numbers are better.

 

as a theoretical start point, the best possible place to be in would obviously be the 1st pick in a non-snake. with picks 1, 13, and 25, he would have a "quality score" of 39. naturally, this is far better that team 12, with picks 12, 24, and 36, for a QS of 72.

 

serp drafts are designed to address this inequity by evening out the QS every 2 rounds. in your draft, after 4 rounds, every team will have a QS of 98.

 

but let's look at your modified version through three rounds:

 

team 1: 1, 24, 36=61

team 2: 2, 23, 25=50

team 3: 3, 22, 26=51

team 4: 4, 21, 27=52

team 5: 5, 20, 28=53

team 6: 6, 19, 29=54

team 7: 7, 18, 30=55

team 8: 8, 17, 31=56

team 9: 9, 16, 32=57

team 10: 10, 15, 33=58

team 11: 11, 14, 34=59

team 12: 12, 13, 35=60

 

so we see that team 2 is quantitatively best after 3 rounds, far ahead of team 1. granted, this will get evened out in the next round, but remember that player impact value decays as you progress through your draft--the 4th round turnaround pick will be of less objective value than an improved 3rd round slot.

 

we also have to consider the issue of supply at a given position. there are what...16 true featured backs in the NFL right now? imagine the frustration of team 1 as he watches back after back fall off the board. granted, he has LJ, but the fact that he doesn't get 24/25 means that he's in a very difficult position. he has to grab any available RB at 24, but he doesn't have the turnaround to pick up a top WR as compensation. contrast that with team 12's RB/RB/WR potential.

 

what i'd encourage you to do is to extend these numbers to the 7th round, just to get an idea of raw DP quality. then go back and work through some ADP and high-quality mocks to see where the tier breaks are. this'll give you a pretty good picture of the values you'd be getting at each position.

This point was brought up during the pre-draft meeting, and I personally don't like it, but it was voted in. Another point that I didn't mention is that the number that you pick on draft day isn't necessarily your draft position- #1 gives you first choice at picking the position you want, which is why I'm still thinking, based on mocks, that I want the 1.03 slot. Thanks for the input- pipeman

[gffootball 0]

I've always thought the most "equitable" serpentine would be to go 1...12, 12...1, then 12...1 again, and then just flipping it each round. If you do a straight serpentine, the number 1 pick has a huge statistical advantage, for the simple fact that the top couple picks put up so many more points than anyone else, that you have to get a really lucky pick to catch up.

 

If you don't agree, then why does everyone want one of the top 3 picks this year?

 

Furthermore, you not only get the best RB, but you can still get one of the top WR's and a very serviceable #2 back.

 

Glad to see other people understand this concept and are trying to implement it.