***NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 3/9 (Final Weekend Edition)***

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn. Akron just got busted on a last second bank shot 3 after their man bricked the front end of a 1 and 1.

[Fumbleweed 555]

That stinks. 26 wins and likely to the NIT. Doesn't seem right.........

[ZeroTolerance 584]

That stinks. 26 wins and likely to the NIT. Doesn't seem right.........

Kind of hard to get at-large bids when you play in a weakened mid-major conference...and schedule the #236 non-conference schedule for balance. 14 wins against the bottom third of D-I, 0-1 against the top 50.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Kind of hard to get at-large bids when you play in a weakened mid-major conference...and schedule the #236 non-conference schedule for balance. 14 wins against the bottom third of D-I, 0-1 against the top 50.

 

No doubt about that. I just hate it when the regular season champs of mid-major conferences lose in their tourneys....for many, it means no bid when they were truly the best team in that conference all year long.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Anyway, back to bubble analysis.

 

14 teams: Xavier, Georgia Tech, Florida St, West Virginia, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue, Texas Tech, Kansas St, Old Dominion, Drexel, Missouri St, Air Force, Stanford

 

To start, I think the following teams can be eliminated first: Florida St, West Virginia, Stanford

 

This leaves 11 teams for 7 spots (subtract 1-2 based on ACC/SEC finals).

 

Head-to-head discussions...

 

- Old Dominion ahead of Drexel based on head-to-head wins and finish in the CAA standings.

 

- Kansas St and Texas Tech have an odd comparison. Tech won at Kansas St, Cats blew out Tech on a neutral floor. K-State has the better conference record, but the quality of their wins is vastly inferior. My guess is the committee will place Texas Tech in before Kansas St.

 

- Michigan St/Illinois/Purdue: Purdue has the head-to-head win over both, including an emphatic 24 pt win over MSU. Illinois and Purdue finished a game ahead of State, and both lasted a round later in the tournament. This is tempered somewhat by MSU's 6 Top 50 wins and top 10 SOS (Illinois: 4 Top 50, 24 SOS; Purdue: 3 Top 50, 42 SOS). This leaves the committee with a dilemma should they decide not to invite all 3 teams; they rarely select teams ahead of conference opposition that finished higher in the standings which would be the case should MSU get in and either Illinois or Purdue be left out.

 

- Air Force has the pretty computer numbers, but a 4-6 finish with 4 straight losses makes their inclusion increasingly unlikely. Arkansas could gain a little more support with a solid showing vs Florida given their 5 game winning streak and winning record vs the Top 50. Their case takes a beating given the sub-.500 record in a weak SEC West, but the brutal 2-8 road mark is balanced out with a highly unusual 6-1 neutral court record.

 

- Georgia Tech and Xavier entered the week looking like sure things, but one-shot tournament exits bring the two back into the bubble discussion. Georgia Tech looks good to take the 7th ACC bid with their 8-7 mark vs the Top 50, while Xavier has an A-10 regular season crowd and 9-1 finish along with their 5-2 neutral mark.

 

- Missouri St was banking on their 3rd place finish in the MVC, but the Valley seems to be quickly fading from the spotlight. Being swept by Creighton and Southern Illinois hurts the Bears who will have to hope the MVC's 4th rated RPI is enough to push them ahead of both the major conference bubblers as well as road-warrior Drexel.

 

No doubt about that. I just hate it when the regular season champs of mid-major conferences lose in their tourneys....for many, it means no bid when they were truly the best team in that conference all year long.

In that vein this year has been incredible for the mid-majors. Only two teams below a 2 seed so far (A-10 excluded) have stolen their conference's auto-bids.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Here's an update on how I see the seeds right now:

 

#1 seeds: Ohio State (lock), Kansas, Florida, North Carolina....

 

However, if Wisconsin wins tomorrow, I think the Big Ten should get two #1 seeds. Florida hasn't had to play anyone that good in their conference tourney thus far, and Carolina's inconsistency down the stretch can't be ignored. In case of an Ohio State win and a loss by Florida, UNC, or Kansas, I think UCLA could get back in play for a #1 seed.

 

#2 seeds: Wisconsin, UCLA, Georgetown, Memphis

 

#3 seeds: Texas A&M, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Southern Illinois

 

#4 seeds: Texas, Notre Dame, Washingon State, UNLV

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Georgetown should get what they wanted: 2 seed in the East.

 

 

Time to try and pin down the last of the field....

 

In: Georgia Tech, Michigan St, Xavier, Old Dominion, Drexel, Purdue, Kansas St

Out: Illinois, Missouri St, Texas Tech, Air Force, Stanford, West Virginia, Florida St, Appalachian St

[Tarheel Boy 0]

If the Heels win tomorrow they'll probably get a #1 seed, but that might not be such a great thing. They'll probably be shipped out West and UCLA would be the #2 seed. Not good...

[NJJoe20 0]

Illinois has 23 wins, a winning record in the Big10, RPI in the 20's, SOS in the 30's, and have 7-9 record against current/expected NCAA tourney teams. They were also decimated by injuries during the non-conference season and have finished strong. They also have no losses againt teams outside the RPI top 100. No team with this resume has ever been kept out of the tourney.

 

Old Dominion, Drexel and Kansas St will not get a bid over them, of this I am 99% sure.

[dirty dug 0]

My arse hurts from pushing the egg out that USC laid.

 

[Chronic Husker 86]

Here's an update on how I see the seeds right now:

 

#1 seeds: Ohio State (lock), Kansas, Florida, North Carolina....

 

I don't understand why TBoy thinks NC would have to go out west. They're a stronger #1 seed than Florida or Wisconsin. One of those teams should get shipped out, right?

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Illinois has 23 wins, a winning record in the Big10, RPI in the 20's, SOS in the 30's, and have 7-9 record against current/expected NCAA tourney teams. They were also decimated by injuries during the non-conference season and have finished strong. They also have no losses againt teams outside the RPI top 100. No team with this resume has ever been kept out of the tourney.

 

Old Dominion, Drexel and Kansas St will not get a bid over them, of this I am 99% sure.

I just have a feeling Drexel is going to get in considering many of last year's committee members returned this year. I can completely see Old Dominion, Kansas St, Illinois, and Texas Tech swapping in or out with each other, and personally Texas Tech and Kansas St are the ones I'd least like to see make it. Also, I really should drag Syracuse back onto the bubble despite everyone's premature addition of them as a lock. Poor RPI, 3-7 vs the top 50, 2 losses to teams out of the top 100, and they lost at home to Drexel.

[JT 137]

I usually find ESPN's "Sports Reporter's" as entertaining as one of the political threads here ("You're an indiot." "No, you're the idiot. The made-up facts from someone with a vested interest in supporting my position, which I adopted after someone on tv told me to, prove it."), but one guy today actually had a good suggestion.

 

The NCAA should adopt a rule that no conference can get more than half it's teams in the tournament. I'd much rather see a team like Akron, who won 26 games and lost their tourney on a shot for the ages, than the 7th or 8th place team from the ACC or Big 10.

 

Imagine conference tourneys if half the teams knew for a fact that their only chance to make the field was to win the whole thing. Even more exciting than they are now.

[dirty dug 0]

 

I don't understand why TBoy thinks NC would have to go out west. They're a stronger #1 seed than Florida or Wisconsin. One of those teams should get shipped out, right?

 

I agree, Florida or Wisky getting a #1 seed will likely be rewarded with a trip out West and a bracket with UCLA.

 

I usually find ESPN's "Sports Reporter's" as entertaining as one of the political threads here ("You're an indiot." "No, you're the idiot. The made-up facts from someone with a vested interest in supporting my position, which I adopted after someone on tv told me to, prove it."), but one guy today actually had a good suggestion.

 

The NCAA should adopt a rule that no conference can get more than half it's teams in the tournament. I'd much rather see a team like Akron, who won 26 games and lost their tourney on a shot for the ages, than the 7th or 8th place team from the ACC or Big 10.

 

Imagine conference tourneys if half the teams knew for a fact that their only chance to make the field was to win the whole thing. Even more exciting than they are now.

 

I wish they'd institute a rule that you have to be above .500 in conference play.

[Tarheel Boy 0]

 

I don't understand why TBoy thinks NC would have to go out west. They're a stronger #1 seed than Florida or Wisconsin. One of those teams should get shipped out, right?

 

If Carolina and Wisconsin win today, then I think maybe UNC has East Rutherford and Florida gets St. Louis. I hope I'm wrong about Carolina going out west. If they lose to NCSU today though it doesn't matter.

[JT 137]

 

I wish they'd institute a rule that you have to be above .500 in conference play.

 

That would be ok, along with the standings rule. But of the two, I prefer the standings. Too many unbalanced schedules these days, resulting in a team like Kansas State that won 10 games, almost all against conference bottom feeders.

[Chronic Husker 86]

If Carolina and Wisconsin win today, then I think maybe UNC has East Rutherford and Florida gets St. Louis. I hope I'm wrong about Carolina going out west. If they lose to NCSU today though it doesn't matter.

You're probably right about that. Gotta root for State today. I love it when middle of the road teams go on a run and bust their ass to get in the tourney.

 

That being said, the Heels should smoke 'em.

 

That would be ok, along with the standings rule. But of the two, I prefer the standings. Too many unbalanced schedules these days, resulting in a team like Kansas State that won 10 games, almost all against conference bottom feeders.

Hey! We beat Kansas State.

[Tarheel Boy 0]

You're probably right about that. Gotta root for State today. I love it when middle of the road teams go on a run and bust their ass to get in the tourney.

 

That being said, the Heels should smoke 'em.

 

The Heels should win today. I don't think it will be as much as Vegas has it right now.

[BrahmaBulls 1,012]

Georgetown should get what they wanted: 2 seed in the East.

Time to try and pin down the last of the field....

 

In: Georgia Tech, Michigan St, Xavier, Old Dominion, Drexel, Purdue, Kansas St

Out: Illinois, Missouri St, Texas Tech, Air Force, Stanford, West Virginia, Florida St, Appalachian St

 

I agree with your teams except I think TT gets in over K-State. And the last spot between Drexel, Illinois, and Air Force will be close. A lot of the ESPN guys think Stanford is in but I don't see it happening.

[Tarheel Boy 0]

Georgia Tech fans are probably pulling for the Heels to win today. If NCSU wins that could very well knock out the Yellow Jackets. I don't see 8 teams going from the ACC.

[Chronic Husker 86]

Does Sidney Lowe always wear that ugly ass suit or did he just expect to be one and done?

[ZeroTolerance 584]

I agree with your teams except I think TT gets in over K-State. And the last spot between Drexel, Illinois, and Air Force will be close. A lot of the ESPN guys think Stanford is in but I don't see it happening.

If they choose K-State, they will reference the Friday game. If they choose Tech it will be 'full body of work'. I might adjust my picks one final time before the show.

[Tarheel Boy 0]

Does Sidney Lowe always wear that ugly ass suit or did he just expect to be one and done?

 

He wore it the first time the Heels and NCSU played this year. Since the Wolfpucks won that game he's been wearing it against UNC and Dook. I guess he wore it yesterday for good luck.

[Chronic Husker 86]

If they choose K-State, they will reference the Friday game. If they choose Tech it will be 'full body of work'. I might adjust my picks one final time before the show.

The Tech - KState question is a quandary.

 

K-State went 10-6 in conference and beat Tech in the tourney. I'm pretty sure there's never been a Big 12 team to go 10-6 in conference and make it to the conference semis that didn't make it to the tourney (although the Big 12 isn't as deep as usual this year). Also, they gave KU a fight yesterday.

 

Tech beat A&M twice and beat Kansas. Nothing to scoff at. Plus, something I haven't heard mentioned is that they got hosed by officiating in two games. The first one was at home against Nebraska when they lost on a BS three and the other was against OSU where Bobby Knight said it was the worst call of his career.

 

I have no clue which will get in. Maybe both, maybe neither. My best guess is KSU gets in for their tourney win and Tech gets focked.

 

[BrahmaBulls 1,012]

Georgia Tech fans are probably pulling for the Heels to win today. If NCSU wins that could very well knock out the Yellow Jackets. I don't see 8 teams going from the ACC.

 

The committee does not choose teams by conference. If NC State pulls this out, then it's gonna bump Stanford, Illinois, Drexel, ODU, Air Force, K-State, or Texas Tech. Whoever is currently #65.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Valiant effort by NC State comes up a little short, much to the relief of many bubble teams. Time for one final shot at projecting the field (as always, this is my best guess at who WILL be selected, not personal opinion on what the field SHOULD be)...

 

One-bid conferences (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-Continent, Mid American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, George Washington

Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Ten (6): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue

Colonial (2): VCU, Drexel

Horizon (2): Wright St, Butler

Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton

Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Pac 10 (5): UCLA, Washington St, USC, Oregon, Arizona

SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee

WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico St

 

Which leaves one spot left between Kansas St, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Air Force, and Stanford

 

My projection for team 65 is Kansas St, with Stanford being team 66.

 

 

My projection seems to be different from Joe Lunardi on one spot (Illinois out, Stanford in). Considering he gets 64 out of 65 year in and year out, Illini fans probably should be nervous.

[dirty dug 0]

Valiant effort by NC State comes up a little short, much to the relief of many bubble teams. Time for one final shot at projecting the field (as always, this is my best guess at who WILL be selected, not personal opinion on what the field SHOULD be)...

 

One-bid conferences (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-Continent, Mid American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, George Washington

Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Ten (6): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue

Colonial (2): VCU, Drexel

Horizon (2): Wright St, Butler

Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton

Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Pac 10 (5): UCLA, Washington St, USC, Oregon, Arizona

SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee

WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico St

 

Which leaves one spot left between Kansas St, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Air Force, and Stanford

 

My projection for team 65 is Kansas St, with Stanford being team 66.

My projection seems to be different from Joe Lunardi on one spot (Illinois out, Stanford in). Considering he gets 64 out of 65 year in and year out, Illini fans probably should be nervous.

 

I really don't see the Big 10 getting 6 teams in. 5 is being generous to that conference. I think Illinois and Purdue are out.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

I really don't see the Big 10 getting 6 teams in. 5 is being generous to that conference. I think Illinois and Purdue are out.

I am very confident at least one of the two will be in. If only one makes it, I would guess that it would be Purdue.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Valiant effort by NC State comes up a little short, much to the relief of many bubble teams. Time for one final shot at projecting the field (as always, this is my best guess at who WILL be selected, not personal opinion on what the field SHOULD be)...

 

One-bid conferences (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-Continent, Mid American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, George Washington

Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Ten (6): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue

Colonial (2): VCU, Drexel

Horizon (2): Wright St, Butler

Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton

Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Pac 10 (5): UCLA, Washington St, USC, Oregon, Arizona

SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee

WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico St

 

Which leaves one spot left between Kansas St, Texas Tech, Old Dominion, Air Force, and Stanford

 

My projection for team 65 is Kansas St, with Stanford being team 66.

My projection seems to be different from Joe Lunardi on one spot (Illinois out, Stanford in). Considering he gets 64 out of 65 year in and year out, Illini fans probably should be nervous.

 

ZT......you've listed the Colonial twice. You've actually got two bids left to hand out. There should be only 19 one-bid conferences on your list.

 

Here's my 65. Seedings are in parentheses:

 

Albany, NY (15)

 

Belmont (15)

 

Xavier (8)

George Washington (13)

 

North Carolina (1)

Maryland (5)

Virginia Tech (5)

Virginia (6)

Duke (7)

Boston College (8)

Georgia Tech (11)

 

Kansas (2)

Texas (3)

Texas A&M (3)

Kansas State (11)

 

Ohio State (1)

Wisconsin (2)

Indiana (6)

Purdue (8)

Illinois (9)

Michigan State (10)

 

Georgetown (2)

Pittsburgh (3)

Louisville (5)

Notre Dame (4)

Villanova (7)

Marquette (10)

Syracuse (12)

 

Weber State (16)

 

Winthrop (11)

 

Long Beach State (13)

 

Virginia Commenwealth (9)

Old Dominion (10)

 

Memphis (2)

 

Butler (9)

Wright State (14)

 

Pennsylvania (14)

 

Niagara (16)

 

Miami (Ohio) (14)

 

Oral Roberts (13)

 

Florida A&M (16)

 

Southern Illinois (4)

Creighton (7)

Missouri State (10)

 

UNLV (4)

Brigham Young (5)

 

Central Conn. St. (16)

 

Eastern Kentucky (15)

 

Holy Cross (13)

 

UCLA (1)

Oregon (3)

Washington State (4)

USC (7)

Arizona (9)

 

 

Florida (1)

Tennessee (6)

Kentucky (8)

Vanderbilt (11)

 

Davidson (12)

 

Texas A&M- Corpus Christi (14)

 

North Texas (15)

 

Jackson State (16)

 

Gonzaga (12)

 

Nevada (6)

New Mexico State (12)

 

Seeds are currently based on Texas and Ohio State hanging on to win.........

[ZeroTolerance 584]

One-bid conferences (19): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Conference USA, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-Continent, Mid American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, George Washington

Big 12 (4): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Ten (6): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue

Colonial (2): VCU, Drexel

Horizon (2): Wright St, Butler

Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton

Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Pac 10 (6): UCLA, Washington St, USC, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford

SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee

WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico St

 

One bid off (I mentioned a 64th team after the list). Hmm...much as I disagree, Texas Tech is going to get a bid. That makes 64...

 

I'll guess #65 will be another one I disagree with: Stanford

 

Now just for fun...who I would take for my 65 (I am a sucker for the underdogs):

 

One-bid conferences (19): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Conference USA, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-Continent, Mid American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland, Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, George Washington

Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Ten (6): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Illinois, Purdue

Colonial (3): VCU, Drexel, Old Dominion

Horizon (2): Wright St, Butler

Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton

Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Pac 10 (5): UCLA, Washington St, USC, Oregon, Arizona

SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee

Southern (2): Davidson, Appalachian St

WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico St

 

An argument can be made for Stanford over Syracuse as well.

[JT 137]

I swear on all that is holy, I'd rather hear Tom Arnold and D!ck Vitale read Shakespeare than listen to Billy Packer broadcast a baketball game.

[donhaas 19]

I swear on all that is holy, I'd rather hear Tom Arnold and D!ck Vitale read Shakespeare than listen to Billy Packer broadcast a baketball game.

 

Agreed....

 

....and it has nothing to do with the foul mood I'm in

[JT 137]

Agreed....

 

....and it has nothing to do with the foul mood I'm in

 

I'd rather hear bagpipes in a tunnel.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

I think this takes care of Wisconsin's 1 seed. #2 out west now?

 

So, who wants to place bets on how Nantz/Packer react when 3 or 4 mid-majors get invited?

[JT 137]

Big 12 goes to OT.

 

Kansas, Ohio St, Florida & UNC is my prediction.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

What a year for conference champs: 17 of 31 auto-bids go to the top seed, 9 more to the 2 seed.

[BrahmaBulls 1,012]

Looks like ODU one of the last in as a 12 seed.

 

Purdue in easily. Ga Tech in too but a tough Round 1 vs. UNLV who I thought could have been a 4 or 5 seed.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Looks like ODU one of the last in as a 12 seed.

 

Purdue in easily. Ga Tech in too but a tough Round 1 vs. UNLV who I thought could have been a 4 or 5 seed.

 

Weird seedings. Butler as a #5? Too high.

 

UNLV at #7?

 

I'd have switched those two.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Weird seedings. Butler as a #5? Too high.

 

UNLV at #7?

 

I'd have switched those two.

Yeah..poor Wisconsin, lucky Florida.

 

Illinois in.

[DBZFan2K 0]

Old Dominion in = Illinois out?

 

Nope, they face Va Tech