***NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 3/9 (Final Weekend Edition)***

[Tarheel Boy 0]

Nevada about to get beat which will give the WAC two bids. ODU, Xavier, K-State, and Illinois better be nervous.

 

Sorry, dude, but Georgia Tech should be more nervous than Xavier.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Sorry, dude, but Georgia Tech should be more nervous than Xavier.

Agreed. GT has the brutal road record and first round flameout to keep them sweating. I'd rather see a Drexel rewarded ahead of a Texas Tech team that matched each of its big wins with equally bad losses but I don't have much confidence in that happening.

[rallo 139]

Sorry, dude, but Georgia Tech should be more nervous than Xavier.

 

agreed... xavier is in easily... it's not like umass beat st. louis... and more than 1 team will come out of the a-10

[Fumbleweed 555]

WOW.....Xavier and Nevada both lose. Bubble teams crying in their milk. I think Memphis will win easily tomorrow, but who knows?

 

I'll revise my field at the end of this evening....still some important games to go.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

WOW.....Xavier and Nevada both lose. Bubble teams crying in their milk. I think Memphis will win easily tomorrow, but who knows?

 

I'll revise my field at the end of this evening....still some important games to go.

Pressure on Illinois right now. With Purdue throwing down the gauntlet for Big Ten bid #5, the Illini cannot expect a 6th Big Ten bid without a win, not after the Xavier/Nevada fallout. Texas Tech picked a real bad day and a bad opponent to roll over on. Missouri St is doomed to a repeat of last year's heartache. Air Force played itself out of the tournament from seemingly lock status.

 

Purdue

Georgia Tech

Old Dominion

Illinois

Kansas St

Texas Tech

----------------------

Drexel

Missouri St

Air Force

Stanford

West Virginia

[Fumbleweed 555]

Pressure on Illinois right now. With Purdue throwing down the gauntlet for Big Ten bid #5, the Illini cannot expect a 6th Big Ten bid without a win, not after the Xavier/Nevada fallout. Texas Tech picked a real bad day and a bad opponent to roll over on. Missouri St is doomed to a repeat of last year's heartache. Air Force played itself out of the tournament from seemingly lock status.

 

We actually disagree on Missouri State. I think they're going to get in.... for now. If Memphis loses or the SEC has a surprise winner, maybe not. I'll have to take a look at everything tonight when the dust settles.

 

Illinois is basically facing a must-win right now. I do agree with that.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

3 points in 4:30 of OT. Maybe it was a good thing that the Big Ten had no overtime games this year. Illinois survives another day...do they and Purdue both get in?

 

Not bubble related, but damn Akron came out for the second-half. Down 33-19, open up 32-9 out of the lockerroom.

[Fumbleweed 555]

3 points in 4:30 of OT. Maybe it was a good thing that the Big Ten had no overtime games this year. Illinois survives another day...do they and Purdue both get in?

 

Not bubble related, but damn Akron came out for the second-half. Down 33-19, open up 32-9 out of the lockerroom.

 

The committee now would be hard pressed to put in Michigan State unless they put in both Illinois and Purdue. Illinois and Purdue finished ahead of Michigan State in the regular season standings and now advanced deeper than Michigan State in the tourney as well. So, if the Spartans get in, then the Big Ten will indeed send six teams. Unbelievable.

[BrahmaBulls 1,010]

Sorry, dude, but Georgia Tech should be more nervous than Xavier.

 

I may eat my words on Sunday but I don't see any way that a team that finished 6th (top half) in the best conference and has EIGHT wins against the Top 50 doesn't get in.

 

Xavier beat Purdue and Creighton. GT beat Purdue and Memphis. GT also beat UNC, Duke, FSU twice, and Clemson. That said, Xavier probably gets in.

 

I think the CAA is back to 1 bid. Drexel and ODU are both out. I think Stanford is out. Missouri St is definitely gone now. WVU has no chance.

 

The last teams in are Mich St, Texas Tech, K-State, Xavier, Ga Tech, Villanova, and Air Force. If Florida loses the SEC one of these teams is headed home too.

 

We actually disagree on Missouri State. I think they're going to get in.... for now. If Memphis loses or the SEC has a surprise winner, maybe not. I'll have to take a look at everything tonight when the dust settles.

 

Illinois is basically facing a must-win right now. I do agree with that.

 

No chance. Their best win might be Delaware St. They were 0-5 against So Illinois and Creighton. Beat no one outside the MVC.

 

Agreed. GT has the brutal road record and first round flameout to keep them sweating. I'd rather see a Drexel rewarded ahead of a Texas Tech team that matched each of its big wins with equally bad losses but I don't have much confidence in that happening.

 

You are correct that the road record sucks. But we have 2 impressive neutral court wins (memphis and purdue). And you have to look at the total body of work. They don't pick teams just based on road wins. That is only one factor.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

I may eat my words on Sunday but I don't see any way that a team that finished 6th (top half) in the best conference and has EIGHT wins against the Top 50 doesn't get in.

 

Xavier beat Purdue and Creighton. GT beat Purdue and Memphis. GT also beat UNC, Duke, FSU twice, and Clemson. That said, Xavier probably gets in.

 

I think the CAA is back to 1 bid. Drexel and ODU are both out. I think Stanford is out. Missouri St is definitely gone now. WVU has no chance.

 

The last teams in are Mich St, Texas Tech, K-State, Xavier, Ga Tech, Villanova, and Air Force. If Florida loses the SEC one of these teams is headed home too.

No chance. Their best win might be Delaware St. They were 0-5 against So Illinois and Creighton. Beat no one outside the MVC.

You are correct that the road record sucks. But we have 2 impressive neutral court wins (memphis and purdue). And you have to look at the total body of work. They don't pick teams just based on road wins. That is only one factor.

Don't forget that body of work includes 3 losses to teams out of the RPI top 100, the 1-8 road record, a .500 conference finish (with a single road/neutral win) and a first round exit to a Wake team that finishes their season at 15-16. I think Georgia Tech will make it, but a lock they are not.

 

Air Force played their way out of an at-large bid. A 10-6 record in a not so major conference combined with 4 losses in a row and a 4-6 record in their last 10, 3 losses outside of the Top 100, best wins being @Stanford and Texas Tech (N).

 

Missouri State will miss the cut due to their failure all season to step up against their top opposition. The neutral win vs Wisconsin is great, but in the nearly 4 months since they have gone 0-5 vs Creighton/SIU and lost at home to Winthrop in their only games against tournament opposition.

 

Texas Tech should be left out but I have a feeling they will get a bid. Bucknell and Arkansas are their best non-conference wins, and they have had some brutal losses (including a 20 pt rout against their direct competition for an at-large) but they will probably be given a spot based on their wins vs A&M and Kansas. If Tech gets in then K-State HAS to be included. Cats finished 2 games ahead in the standings and beat the hell out of the Raiders in their tourney matchup.

 

Similar situation with Purdue/Illinois/MSU now. Committee doesn't like taking teams lower in the standings while leaving out those that were ahead of them, and with Purdue and Illinois also advancing past MSU in the Big Ten tourney the committee will take both of them ahead of MSU (more likely all 3 getting bids).

 

Drexel will be a hard luck case this year. They actually were getting pretty close to sneaking in despite their low finish in the CAA and inability to beat the top 3 in the conference...until Nevada and Xavier tripped. Drexel won't get in ahead of ODU and with those two at-large bids being poached there just won't be enough room for the Dragons, which is too bad. The committee would have loved to reward a team that scheduled tough games on the road and won them.

 

With that, I am out for the night.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Friday night updates:

 

Conferences that only have a shot at one bid (17): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, SWAC, West Coast.

 

ACC (7): North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech

 

Georgia Tech better be sweating, because they're one of the last teams in for now. They had some impressive wins this year, but the bad loss last night did them no favors with a shrinking bubble. This number could shrink to six before it's all said and done. Stay tuned.

 

Atlantic Ten (2): Xavier, GW/Rhode Island

 

I think Xavier is going to make it, but they could have made themselves much more comfortable by winning tonight.

 

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville, Syracuse, Villanova

 

Don't be shocked if Syracuse gets bit with all the upsets. I've got them in for now, but they should be a bit nervous. West Virginia is done, I think. They might have made it had more games gone their way in the last two days, but their profile just doesn't add up to a bid.

 

Big Twelve (4): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Kansas State

 

Just a really, really bad day for Texas Tech. Had they lost a thriller to Kansas State at the buzzer, I would be more sympathetic to them, but as is, they got hammered. Oklahoma State is trying desparately to get an auto bid here....if they don't, I think this will be a four bid league with Kansas State being a 10-12 seed (in other words, one of the last teams in).

 

Big Ten (6): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue

 

I think Purdue and Illinois earned their bids today. They did all you can ask for. Michigan State's computer numbers remain strong and that should get them in, but like Villanova, they're fortunate to have those strong computer numbers....otherwise, their profile is a bit shaky. The Spartans aren't a lock on Sunday, but I think they're in for now.

 

Colonial (2): Virginia Commenwealth, Old Dominion

 

This league should get two bids...but not three. I think ODU has the advantage over Drexel for that spot, so I've got them in.

 

Conference USA (1-2): Memphis

 

Bubble teams everywhere clammoring for Memphis to take care of business vs. Houston.

 

Horizon (2): Butler, Wright State

 

Two in. No questions asked.

 

Mid-American (1-2): Akron

 

I hope Akron wins the auto bid tomorrow night as I would hate to see a 26-win team from a decent mid-major conference miss the tourney. Should they lose tomorrow night, they probably won't be dancing...but if Nevada and Xavier had kept winning, they would have and should have been in the discussion.

 

Missouri Valley (3): Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State

 

A lot of people think Missouri State is in danger of losing a bid. I say not. That win at Wisconsin should hold plenty of weight as should the fact that the Bears were screwed out of bid last year. I think Bradley is going to the NIT. Three bids, I say....but many have Missouri State not making it. They've got to be nervous.

 

Mountain West (2): UNLV, Brigham Young

 

Somebody had to get bumped and Air Force was the victim, in my opinion. I now think the Mountain West will get two bids only......Air Force just flat out choked it away down the stretch.

 

Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Washington State, USC, Arizona, Oregon

 

Five bids for this league almost certainly now. Air Force blew out Stanford, so if Air Force is out, Stanford is definitely out. No chance now for the Cardinal, IMO.

 

SEC (4): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

 

So, what happens to the team that wins the Arkansas-Mississippi State game tomorrow? Nothing, in my opinion. I think only an auto bid can get either team in unless they take Florida to the wire in the league title tilt. This league will keep things from being determined until the last minute on Sunday,

 

WAC (2): Nevada, Utah St./New Mexico State

 

Two bid league. It's official.

 

Top Sixteen Seeds (as of today):

 

#1- Ohio State, Kansas, Florida, North Carolina

#2- Wisconsin, UCLA, Georgetown, Memphis

#3- Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Washington State, Southern Illinois

#4- Oregon, Texas, Brigham Young, Virginia Tech

 

 

 

I may eat my words on Sunday but I don't see any way that a team that finished 6th (top half) in the best conference and has EIGHT wins against the Top 50 doesn't get in.

 

Xavier beat Purdue and Creighton. GT beat Purdue and Memphis. GT also beat UNC, Duke, FSU twice, and Clemson. That said, Xavier probably gets in.

 

I think the CAA is back to 1 bid. Drexel and ODU are both out. I think Stanford is out. Missouri St is definitely gone now. WVU has no chance.

 

The last teams in are Mich St, Texas Tech, K-State, Xavier, Ga Tech, Villanova, and Air Force. If Florida loses the SEC one of these teams is headed home too.

No chance. Their best win might be Delaware St. They were 0-5 against So Illinois and Creighton. Beat no one outside the MVC.

You are correct that the road record sucks. But we have 2 impressive neutral court wins (memphis and purdue). And you have to look at the total body of work. They don't pick teams just based on road wins. That is only one factor.

 

Just an FYI: Missouri State's best win was at Wisconsin....not vs. Delaware State.

[dirty dug 0]

Some of your logic, IMO, is a little flawed. You say Air Force beat Stanford so if AF is out, so should Stanford. Well USC has beaten Oregon twice (including @ Oregon) and you have Oregon a #4 seed. I don't think it's quite that simple in relation to AF and Furd.

 

Great analysis. Don't like seeing 6 Big 10 teams considering how mediocre that conference is.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Some of your logic, IMO, is a little flawed. You say Air Force beat Stanford so if AF is out, so should Stanford. Well USC has beaten Oregon twice (including @ Oregon) and you have Oregon a #4 seed. I don't think it's quite that simple in relation to AF and Furd.

 

Great analysis. Don't like seeing 6 Big 10 teams considering how mediocre that conference is.

 

Well, offer some counter logic all you'd like. All of our logic will be flawed in this process. It's not an exact science. Head to head games do matter when the committee is looking at two bubble teams.

 

If USC wins tonight and then beats Oregon tomorrow night, they should move up to that #4 seed, IMO.

[dirty dug 0]

Well, offer some counter logic all you'd like. All of our logic will be flawed in this process. It's not an exact science. Head to head games do matter when the committee is looking at two bubble teams.

 

If USC wins tonight and then beats Oregon tomorrow night, they should move up to that #4 seed, IMO.

 

It's almost 1am, I got to go to bed, but I'd look more at the road/neutral record OOC. I can't attest to who is better, I just don't think head-to-head is entirely relevant, per se.

[Fumbleweed 555]

It's almost 1am, I got to go to bed, but I'd look more at the road/neutral record OOC. I can't attest to who is better, I just don't think head-to-head is entirely relevant, per se.

 

I thought you lived in California??

[jocstrap 8]

Mississippi State is in baby if they win tomorrow - what a game today against Kentucky

[ETSDAD 0]

Really good analysis and discussion. I don't necessarily agree with it all, but I appreciate it. Good talking points on all the teams. Happy for my KState team taking care of business today. KU is a bad matchup for them, although that could be said for most teams against KU. Hopefully they'll come to play.

 

Memphis will take care of business. They're at home, and they're looking to make an undefeated run all the way through the conference.

 

I don't think Okie St. has enough in the tank to beat Texas and then the KU/KSU winner. Not four games in four days. How frustrating to be an OSU fan. They clearly have the horses to be a tourney team, but they puked all over themselves the last month and a half.

[JT 137]

Mississippi State is in baby if they win tomorrow - what a game today against Kentucky

 

Nope. Win the tourney or bust. All a win Saturday means is they're better than NIT-bound Arkansas.

[dirty dug 0]

I thought you lived in California??

 

Virginia.

 

 

Moved here 4 years ago.

[Fumbleweed 555]

If (and it's a big 'if' because we don't know)......If they take computer rankings into consideration, here are the combined RPIs and Sagarin Ratings of some of the Bubble Teams. Interesting for the debate:

 

Michigan State- 23

Missouri State- 31

Georgia Tech- 36

Purdue- 37

Xavier- 38

Illinois- 38

Air Force- 38

Arkansas- 39

Florida State- 41

Bradley- 45

Mississippi State- 50

Syracuse- 51

Oklahoma State- 51

Kansas State- 52

Vanderbilt- 52

West Virginia- 53

Old Dominion- 54

Stanford- 59

Texas Tech- 59

Drexel- 59

Akron- 59

Mississippi- 61

Utah State- 64

Appalachian State- 65

 

Just more fuel for the discussion.......

[ZeroTolerance 584]

If (and it's a big 'if' because we don't know)......If they take computer rankings into consideration, here are the combined RPIs and Sagarin Ratings of some of the Bubble Teams. Interesting for the debate:

 

The committee is taking less interest in the RPI as anything more than a tool since it was revamped a few years ago. It is much easier now to get inaccurately high RPI numbers than before and the committee has chosen to use it more for narrowing down the field than selecting individual teams/seeding (see: Missouri St, 2006).

[ZeroTolerance 584]

If (and it's a big 'if' because we don't know)......If they take computer rankings into consideration, here are the combined RPIs and Sagarin Ratings of some of the Bubble Teams. Interesting for the debate:

 

The committee is taking less interest in the RPI as anything more than a tool since it was revamped a few years ago. It is much easier now to get inaccurately high RPI numbers than before and the committee has chosen to use it more for narrowing down the field than selecting individual teams/seeding (see: Missouri St, 2006).

[dirty dug 0]

If (and it's a big 'if' because we don't know)......If they take computer rankings into consideration, here are the combined RPIs and Sagarin Ratings of some of the Bubble Teams. Interesting for the debate:

 

Michigan State- 23

Missouri State- 31

Georgia Tech- 36

Purdue- 37

Xavier- 38

Illinois- 38

Air Force- 38

Arkansas- 39

Florida State- 41

Bradley- 45

Mississippi State- 50

Syracuse- 51

Oklahoma State- 51

Kansas State- 52

Vanderbilt- 52

West Virginia- 53

Old Dominion- 54

Stanford- 59

Texas Tech- 59

Drexel- 59

Akron- 59

Mississippi- 61

Utah State- 64

Appalachian State- 65

 

Just more fuel for the discussion.......

 

Is Sagarin really used by the committee?

 

Here are the current RPI rankings according to http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

[Fumbleweed 555]

Is Sagarin really used by the committee?

 

Here are the current RPI rankings according to http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

 

The RealTime RPI numbers are pretty far off the actual. The best site is here:

 

http://kenpom.com/rpi.php

 

Is Sagarin really used by the committee?

 

Here are the current RPI rankings according to http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

 

Yeah, Sagarin is taken into consideration. It's another trusted computer measure.....not as valued as the RPI, but like Zero said, if last year is any indication, they are moving away from the RPI as a primary measure. We'll see if that trend continues tomorrow evening........

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Lunardi is backing the mid-majors hard. Drexel and ODU as is last two in, with Air Force, Florida St, Kansas St, West Virginia as last 4 out.

[dirty dug 0]

The RealTime RPI numbers are pretty far off the actual. The best site is here:

 

http://kenpom.com/rpi.php

Yeah, Sagarin is taken into consideration. It's another trusted computer measure.....not as valued as the RPI, but like Zero said, if last year is any indication, they are moving away from the RPI as a primary measure. We'll see if that trend continues tomorrow evening........

 

Hey, I like the KenPom! USc at 38! I have to believe there's a shot at a #4 in the West for the winner of the Pac 10 today.

[Fumbleweed 555]

Lunardi is backing the mid-majors hard. Drexel and ODU as is last two in, with Air Force, Florida St, Kansas St, West Virginia as last 4 out.

 

There's no way Lunardi can justify leaving out Kansas State if Texas Tech is in. That's just ridiculous.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

There's no way Lunardi can justify leaving out Kansas State if Texas Tech is in. That's just ridiculous.

His reasoning is Kansas St's weak schedule (95th), bad losses (@New Mexico, @Colorado St), and who they built their 10-6 conference record against (Colorado twice, Missouri twice, Iowa St twice, Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma). There is definetly an argument for leaving them out with a loss today..where I disagree with him is having Texas Tech in the field. Weak non-conference schedule, several ugly losses including Friday. They are being kept afloat solely based on the wins against KU and A&M.

[ETSDAD 0]

His reasoning is Kansas St's weak schedule (95th), bad losses (@New Mexico, @Colorado St), and who they built their 10-6 conference record against (Colorado twice, Missouri twice, Iowa St twice, Baylor, Nebraska, Oklahoma). There is definetly an argument for leaving them out with a loss today..where I disagree with him is having Texas Tech in the field. Weak non-conference schedule, several ugly losses including Friday. They are being kept afloat solely based on the wins against KU and A&M.

 

Not sure that this factors in, but KSU is an entirely different team today than the one that lost games early. It took time for Huggins to get his team playing his style. Once he did, we became a very tough team...typical Huggins team.

 

There's no way the Big 12 only gets three teams.

[kutulu 1,726]

SUNY Albany

[Tarheel Boy 0]

Hey, I like the KenPom! USc at 38! I have to believe there's a shot at a #4 in the West for the winner of the Pac 10 today.

 

They won't be a #4 seed in the West. Maybe a 3, but they can't be a 4. I still think the Bruins are the #1 seed in the West.

[BrahmaBulls 1,010]

Can someone explain briefly how the RPI is calculated? I see teams with similar records (+- 2 wins/losses) but large differences in SOS with the easier schedule ranked 10 spots ahead of the team with the harder schedule. I'm too lazy to google it and research it since one of you probably knows.

[ZeroTolerance 584]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/rpi_help/

 

"The RPI is calculated by adding three parts.

 

Part I (25% of the formula): Team winning percentage. For the 2005 season, the NCAA added a bonus/penalty system, where each home win or road loss get multiplied by 0.6 in the winning percentage calculation. A home loss or road win is multiplied by 1.4. Neutral games count as 1.0. More on the effect of these changes can be found here.

 

Part II (50%): Average opponents’ winning percentage. To calculate this, you must calculate each opponent’s winning percentage individually and average those figures. This is NOT calculated from the opponents’ combined record. Games involving the team for whom we are calculating the RPI are ignored.

 

Part III (25%): Average opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage: Basically taking all of the opponents’ Part II values and averaging them.

 

Only games against other teams playing a mostly D1 schedule count when computing the RPI. "

 

 

"SOS (Strength of Schedule): This is the last two components of the RPI formula:

(2/3) X Opponents Winning Pct. + (1/3) X Opponents Opponents Winning Pct.

 

Non Conference RPI: This is computed applying the basic RPI formula only to a team’s non-conference games. A common misconception is that a team’s non conference RPI will remain the same after they have played their last non-conference opponent. This is not true because a team’s non-conference opponents’ records and their opponents’ records change as they play their conference games. This can have a substantial effect on the NCRPI. For example, in 2003 Alabama’s NCRPI had a ranking of #23 when they entered conference play. By the end of the regular season it had risen to #3.

 

L10 (Last 10 Games): A team’s record in their last 10 games against Division I opponents.

 

RD/NT (Road/Neutral Record): A team’s record away from its home court. "

 

"How does the RPI factor in margin of victory?

It doesn’t."

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Arkansas looks to be the potential villain of all bubble teams tomorrow as they proceed to the SEC final. Purdue unable to clinch their bid against Ohio St.

 

'The bubble'

 

Georgia Tech, Florida St, West Virginia, Illinois, Purdue, Texas Tech, Kansas St, Stanford, Missouri St, Xavier, Air Force, Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian St

 

Some of the above teams are closer to in than out naturally. Also, it is not completely out of the question that Syracuse or Michigan St could be pulled back to the bubble depending on how the committee makes its decisions. Barring a Kansas St comeback, Illinois is the only team left on the bubble that can improve its resume.

 

Another stat for the bubble teams: non-conference RPI/SOS

 

Appalachian St - RPI 7, SOS 4

Drexel - RPI 5, SOS 7

Old Dominion - RPI 52, SOS 32

Illinois - RPI 29, SOS 38

Xavier - RPI 47, SOS 45

Michigan St - RPI 17, SOS 49

Missouri St - RPI 39, SOS 50

Texas Tech - RPI 45, SOS 61

Purdue - RPI 36, SOS 92

Florida St - RPI 27, SOS 108

Stanford - RPI 91, SOS 116

Syracuse - RPI 79, SOS 122

Air Force - RPI 25, SOS 140

Georgia Tech - RPI 40, SOS 162

Kansas St - RPI 78, SOS 225

West Virginia - RPI 59, SOS 272

[ZeroTolerance 584]

K-State unable to sew up a spot but their 6 pt loss to KU at least leaves the committee with a fairly positive view of the Cats.

[0428143 0]

Can someone explain briefly how the RPI is calculated? I see teams with similar records (+- 2 wins/losses) but large differences in SOS with the easier schedule ranked 10 spots ahead of the team with the harder schedule. I'm too lazy to google it and research it since one of you probably knows.

 

The RPI is flawed, check out this site which explains the flaws in detail. There are plenty of better indicators to use nowadays, not sure why the NCAA is stuck in the past.

 

http://www.coltonindex.com/index.html

[ZeroTolerance 584]

The RPI is flawed, check out this site which explains the flaws in detail. There are plenty of better indicators to use nowadays, not sure why the NCAA is stuck in the past.

 

http://www.coltonindex.com/index.html

Key is that the committee does NOT use the RPI as a reason for selecting a team. It is a tool used to narrow down a field and create comparisons between teams in specific aspects, such as schedule difficulty and quality wins. If the committee used the RPI as a selection tool then Missouri St would not have been left out last year with a 23 RPI.

 

Meanwhile, another potential at-large assassin emerges. NC State joins Arkansas as potential bubble killers tomorrow afternoon.

 

Illinois falls, completing the marquee matchup of Championship Week tomorrow - Ohio St vs Wisconsin (very close to both teams getting 1 seeds). The bubble is officially out of action but plenty of movement could still happen with multiple conference title games featuring upset minded teams.

 

 

On a side note...was I the only person who couldn't prevent himself from shouting "Hey Kool-Aid!" at any point in time during this NC St/Va Tech game?

[JT 137]

Key is that the committee does NOT use the RPI as a reason for selecting a team. It is a tool used to narrow down a field and create comparisons between teams in specific aspects, such as schedule difficulty and quality wins. If the committee used the RPI as a selection tool then Missouri St would not have been left out last year with a 23 RPI.

 

Meanwhile, another potential at-large assassin emerges. NC State joins Arkansas as potential bubble killers tomorrow afternoon.

 

Illinois falls, completing the marquee matchup of Championship Week tomorrow - Ohio St vs Wisconsin (very close to both teams getting 1 seeds). The bubble is officially out of action but plenty of movement could still happen with multiple conference title games featuring upset minded teams.

On a side note...was I the only person who couldn't prevent himself from shouting "Hey Kool-Aid!" at any point in time during this NC St/Va Tech game?

 

That's a lot of red jacket.

 

OK, what's the consensus: Is it set with Ohio St, Kansas, Florida and UCLA, or can Wisconsin bump the Bruins with a win over the Buckeyes? Can UNC move in with a Florida loss?

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Hmm, think Oregon wants a better seed?

 

GOT DAMN! 11 for 11, 7 for 7 from 3!

 

Leaves the game 3/3 FT 11/11 FG 7/7 3-pt

Oregon up 78-39

[ZeroTolerance 584]

Who is in so far...(RPI numbers as of 7:45 PM EST, non-conference numbers taken before Saturday games)

 

One-bid conferences (20): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Ivy, MAAC, Mid-Continent, Mid American, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast

 

ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Maryland

Atlantic 10 (2): Xavier, George Washington

Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas

Big East (7): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Villanova, Syracuse

Big Ten (3): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana

Horizon (2): Wright St, Butler

Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton

Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Pac 10 (5): UCLA, Washington St, USC, Oregon, Arizona

SEC (4): Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee

WAC (2): Nevada,

 

58 spots are 'taken'.

1-2 spots would be taken if the following teams do not win their tournament: Florida, North Carolina

7 spots remain open for now

 

Currently 14 teams are 'on the bubble'.

 

Atlantic 10

 

----Xavier (24-8, 13-3, 28 RPI)

------------Positives: Shared A-10 title, 9-1 last 10

------------Negatives: A-10 RPI (10th), 3 losses vs RPI 101+

------------Best wins: Villanova (N), Illinois, Kansas St

------------Non-conference: 10-4 (47 RPI, 45 SOS)

 

ACC

 

----Georgia Tech (20-11, 8-8, 52 RPI)

------------Positives: 8-7 vs RPI Top 50, 7-3 last 10

------------Negatives: 1-8 road, 4-3 vs RPI 101-200

------------Best wins: at Memphis, North Carolina

------------Non-conference: 12-2 (40 RPI, 162 SOS)

 

----Florida St (20-12, 7-9, 42 RPI)

------------Positives: ACC RPI (1st), 17 SoS

------------Negatives: 7-9 in conference, 4-8 road, 5-9 vs RPI Top 50, 2-3 vs RPI 51-100

------------Best wins: Florida, at Duke

------------Non-conference: 12-2 (27 RPI, 108 SOS)

 

Big 12

 

----Texas Tech (21-12, 9-7, 53 RPI)

------------Positives: 3-0 vs Kansas/Texas A&M, 36 SoS, 5-6 vs RPI Top 50

------------Negatives: 2-3 vs RPI 51-100, 8-3 vs RPI 101-200, 21-pt loss to Kansas St

------------Best wins: Kansas, Texas A&M (twice), at Kansas St

------------Non-conference: 11-4 (45 RPI, 61 SOS)

 

----Kansas St (22-11, 10-6, 59 RPI)

------------Positives: 4th place in Big 12, 21-pt win over Texas Tech

------------Negatives: 2-6 vs RPI Top 50, 9-3 vs RPI 101-200, 87 SoS

------------Best wins: at USC, at Texas, Texas Tech (N)

------------Non-conference: 11-4 (78 RPI, 225 SOS)

 

Big East

 

----West Virginia (21-9, 9-7, 57 RPI)

------------Positives:

------------Negatives: 3-6 road, 2-7 vs RPI Top 50, 95 SoS, 5-5 last 10

------------Best wins: UCLA

------------Non-conference: 11-1 (59 RPI, 272 SOS)

 

Big Ten

 

----Michigan St (22-11, 8-8, 23 RPI)

------------Positives: 9 SoS, 6 wins vs RPI Top 50

------------Negatives: 1-8 road, 5-5 last 10, t-7th in Big Ten, 24 pt loss at Purdue

------------Best wins: Texas (N), Wisconsin

------------Non-conference: 13-2 (17 RPI, 49 SOS)

 

----Illinois (23-11, 9-7, 34 RPI)

------------Positives: t-4th in Big Ten, 24 SoS, 7-3 last 10

------------Negatives: 4-9 vs RPI Top 50, 3-5 road, lack of quality wins

------------Best wins: at Missouri, at Bradley, Indiana (N)

------------Non-conference: 12-3 (29 RPI, 38 SOS)

 

----Purdue (21-11, 9-7, 46 RPI)

------------Positives: t-4th in Big Ten, 24 pt win vs Michigan St, head-to-head win vs Illinois, 7-3 last 10

------------Negatives: 2-7 road, 7-2 vs RPI 101-200

------------Best wins: Virginia

------------Non-conference: 11-3 (36 RPI, 92 SOS)

 

Colonial

 

----Old Dominion (24-8, 15-3, 40 RPI)

------------Positives: 2nd in Colonial, 8-5 road, 4-3 vs RPI Top 50, 9-1 last 10, swept Drexel

------------Negatives: 3 losses to RPI 101+

------------Best wins: at Georgetown, at Drexel, at Toledo

------------Non-conference: 8-4 (52 RPI, 32 SOS)

 

----Drexel (22-8, 13-5, 41 RPI)

------------Positives: 12-5 road, 7-3 last 10

------------Negatives: 4th in Colonial, 2 losses to RPI 101-200, 1-5 vs Hofstra/ODU/VCU

------------Best wins: at Vermont, at Villanova, at Syracuse, at Hofstra, at Creighton

------------Non-conference: 8-2 (5 RPI, 7 SOS)

 

Missouri Valley

 

----Missouri St (21-10, 12-6, 35 RPI)

------------Positives: 8-4 road, 3rd in MVC, 38 SoS, 7-3 last 10

------------Negatives: 9-9 vs RPI Top 100

------------Best wins: Wisconsin (N), at Bradley, at Wichita St

------------Non-conference: 8-3 (39 RPI, 50 SOS)

 

Mountain West

 

----Air Force (22-8, 10-6, 29 RPI)

------------Positives: 10-7 road/neutral, 6-1 vs RPI 51-100

------------Negatives: 4-6 last 10, 9-3 vs RPI 101-200, 78 SoS

------------Best wins: at Stanford, Texas Tech (N)

------------Non-conference: 12-1 (25 RPI, 140 SOS)

 

Pac 10

 

----Stanford (18-12, 10-8, 66 RPI)

------------Positives: 5-6 vs RPI Top 50

------------Negatives: 6th in Pac 10, 5-6 road, 9-12 vs RPI Top 100, 4-6 last 10

------------Best wins: at Virginia, UCLA

------------Non-conference: 8-3 (91 RPI, 116 SOS)