*** '07 Player Projections By NFL Team ***

[NAn 39]

To prepare FFTodayers for the upcoming ’07 season, starting 5/14 will post threads listing offensive players by NFL team and invite posters to attach projections to each offensive player.

Posting of just commentary on one or mutliple players, instead of projections is welcomed and encouraged as well.

 

Will post 3 team threads per week (2 during 4th of July week) alphabetically by team city, so will have all 32 NFL teams posted before August 1st.

Through beginning of FF season will hopefully have this thread pinned as an ‘Archives’ thread, so will have opportunity to post replies for any previous team at any time.

 

Player Projections By NFL Team: Archives Thread Link

Denver Broncos: Team/Player Statistical History Link

Travis Henry: Statistical History Link

 

DENVER BRONCOS

 

’06 Statistics

 

|---------- PASSING -----------||----- RUSHING -----|  TOTAL 
		  CMP  ATT   YD	YPA   TD INT  ATT   YD	YPA  TD	 YD   
		  256  454  2995   6.60  20  18  488  2152  4.41  12   5147
NFL rank --->  30   26   27	 19   16  22	9	8	 9   21	 23
QB
| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |
| Jay Cutler		   |  5 |  81 137  59.1 1001  7.3  9  5 |  12   18  0 |
RB
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Travis Henry		 | 14 |  270  1211   4.5   7  |   18	78   4.3   0 |
| Mike Bell			| 15 |  157   677   4.3   8  |   20   158   7.9   0 |
WR
| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Javon Walker		 | 16 |	9   123  13.7   1  |   69  1084  15.7   8 |
| Rod Smith			| 16 |	1	-5  -5.0   0  |   52   512   9.8   3 |
| Brandon Marshall	 | 15 |	2	12   6.0   0  |   20   309  15.4   2 |
TE
| Name				 |  G |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |
| Daniel Graham		| 11 |   16   235  14.7   3 |
| Tony Scheffler	   | 13 |   18   286  15.9   4 |

Notes:

QB JCutler: Will be 2nd season, 1st as opening day starter

RB THenry: Will be 7th season, 1st with Broncos

RB MBell: 2nd season

WR JWalker: 2 yrs removed from ACL injury, led team recs/rec yds/rec TDs in ‘06

WR RSmith: Will be 13th season, 37 years old

WR BMarshall: 2nd season

 

Key Questions For '07 Season:

How will JCutler fare in full season as starter?

Will THenry be the ‘main ball carrier’? If so, by significant margin?

Or will MBell get significant amount of touches?

How will JWalker perform 2 yrs removed from ACL injury?

Can RSmith contribute significantly?

Can BMarshall step up in 2nd season?

Do you remember the days when the Bronco TE position was FF significant?

[Lord Vader 0]

With Travis Henry getting the money he got, and the fact that the Den didn't go after any significant RB in the draft, this all points to Denver finally having a feature RB for the first time since 2003 with Portis. This is what I see for Henry this season:

 

335 carries

1650 yds

12 TD

4.9 ypc

 

38 rec

308 yds

1 TD

[HenryChinaski 1]

I love this offense this year.. Travis Henry will probably be picked a little too high for me to grab, but I'll def be looking at Javon Walker and Jay Cutler for all of my teams.

 

They have loads of upside..

[ffsmack 0]

I love the Broncos this year. But everyone in my league is from Denver and I'm sure everyone gets picked way too high for me

[ShaneFalco 0]

Brandon Marshall is a great late-round sleeper

[Dan 59]

This offense has a lot of upside, and that's a very dangerous word here. I believe that players will be taken according to the offense's upside, and not according to their realistic production. Now, that said, if it's dynasty then there must-haves here on this roster.

 

Jay Cutler - gamble #1. He had some good moments last year, and reasons for hope for owners and potential drafters. However, he's being handed the keys to a Buick (sorry, not a Caddy) and is expected to just pick right up and move forward at lightning speed. Um. Not likely. He's still essentially a rookie, and will have his gray-hair moments in conjunction with some plain old bad games. His upside, though, is very high, and if you can get him later, will be a great #2 coming down the stretch, when he possibly will be finally in synch.

 

Travis Henry - gamble #2. Someone has already posted 1958 total yards to go along with 13 TDs. Those are top five numbers for a journeyman running back. Question for the lovers - why wasn't he signed to something longer term last year? An awful lot of stock is being placed in that contract to convince people that Henry will start. Me, I'm just left wondering when Henry became an all-world talent.

 

Mike Bell - He's not going to stop working, and will see the ball. The question at this point is, "how much?" Worth a late-round pick, and could steal the spotlight if Henry doesn't perform as well some think, or gets injured.

 

Javon Walker - Is probably worth the pick he's going to be taken at. He's a legitimate #1, and I believe he will be better this year. Solid player.

 

Brandon Marshall - gamble #3. Good upside, but again he is so very young. He'll be taken earlier than he ought as the heir apparent to Rod Smith's position, but I think he will struggle and put up pedestrian numbers as compared to his draft position.

 

Daniel Graham - gamble #4. Great talent. New system, new team. How does that fare? Ah, the debate continues. But the fact is that free agent receiver types are always a crapshoot. That said, he should thrive as Cutler's security blanket if he works hard enough. Buyer beware.

 

Tony Scheffler - Interesting. Really good talent and did well last year once Cutler got on the field. I see a lot of two tight end sets in the future for the Broncos.

 

Defense - Could be good, but they have got to address the linebacker position. They are not exciting or dynamic, and don't create a lot of turnovers. Solid, but unspectacular.

[Dan 59]

Interesting note regarding salaries. I'm still doing some research, so bear with me. This is 2005 stuff.

 

The following RBs and their salaries:

 

Dominic Rhodes - $2,754,400 (backup to Edgerrin James)

Priest Holmes - $2,740,000 (obviously underpaid, but split time with Johnson)

Ronnie Brown - $2,696,535 (rookie contract, rookie year)

Stephen Davis - $2,600,000 (I believe he split time that year with Foster)

Stephen Jackson - $2,287,500 (rookie contract, rookie year, backup to Faulk)

Chris Perry - $2,197,500 (third down back, but a 1st rounder)

Duce Staley - $2,150,880 (supposed to compete, benched for Parker)

Kevin Jones - $2,113,520 (starter)

JJ Arrington - $2,067,500 (hmmmmm)

 

Travis Henry - Averaging $2,400,000 over five years. Somehow I'm supposed to believe that this is a guarantee of his starting and succeeding. Okay.

 

ETA: By the way, these are salaries, not cap figures. That's even more interesting . . . obviously.

[Lord Vader 0]

 

 

 

Travis Henry - gamble #2. Someone has already posted 1958 total yards to go along with 13 TDs. Those are top five numbers for a journeyman running back. Question for the lovers - why wasn't he signed to something longer term last year? An awful lot of stock is being placed in that contract to convince people that Henry will start. Me, I'm just left wondering when Henry became an all-world talent.

 

 

 

 

Henry may not be all world, but he is a damn good RB without too many miles on his wheels. In 2002 with Buf he posted 1742 total yards, with 14 TD. I am just saying that with the Denver system, and his toughness and running style, I would see him matching or slightly imporving on those numbers. Plus, he proved last season in Ten that he can be a real beast at running back and that was with a swiss cheese line, and opposing Def putting 8 in the box becuase they knew that the run was coming due to not having respect for V young as a passer.

 

Overall, I do see Henry being a top 5-8 RB in a ppr league by seasons end.

[Savage Beast 1]

Cutler=

 

Henry=

 

 

Bell=

 

Walker=

[NAn 39]

Henry may not be all world, but he is a damn good RB without too many miles on his wheels. In 2002 with Buf he posted 1742 total yards, with 14 TD. I am just saying that with the Denver system, and his toughness and running style, I would see him matching or slightly imporving on those numbers. Plus, he proved last season in Ten that he can be a real beast at running back and that was with a swiss cheese line, and opposing Def putting 8 in the box becuase they knew that the run was coming due to not having respect for V young as a passer.

 

Overall, I do see Henry being a top 5-8 RB in a ppr league by seasons end.

 

VADER

I don't disagree with your assessment of Henry (though I don't know if defense v ten had '8 in box'...no they likely didn't respect Young's passing game, but they may have had spies, players on edge, didn't blitz as much to guard against Youngs RUNNING game).

 

My take is IMO Bell is also a good fit for the system and style of offense, has even less miles, is still learning so could get better, did show to be solid last year already: 157 cars, 677yds, 4.3ypc, 8tds and 20recs, 158yds...pro-rate the carries to 300, you’d be looking at 1600totyds/16tds. (I'll add that Henry has only played 1 full season and that was 5 years ago).

 

SAVAGE

From this and another thread, you seem confident Bell will definitely be a non factor and Henry will definitely be the man.

 

Why are you so sure?

 

That's not being smart...trying to illicit some discussion and always looking for insight.

[Dan 59]

Henry may not be all world, but he is a damn good RB without too many miles on his wheels. In 2002 with Buf he posted 1742 total yards, with 14 TD. I am just saying that with the Denver system, and his toughness and running style, I would see him matching or slightly imporving on those numbers. Plus, he proved last season in Ten that he can be a real beast at running back and that was with a swiss cheese line, and opposing Def putting 8 in the box becuase they knew that the run was coming due to not having respect for V young as a passer.

 

Overall, I do see Henry being a top 5-8 RB in a ppr league by seasons end.

 

I get the toughness thing, and I have always respected that about Henry. But how far does that take him? You highlight one stellar year . . . one that, by the way, prompted a lot of fantasy owners to run right out and draft him early, only to see him disappear and fade away. It's interesting that even afer that dynamite year, Buffalo drafted to replaced him. Hmmm. As NAn pointed out, his big season was five years ago, and that was on the positive side of a major injury.

 

I too want to hear more reasoning behind the confidence that you show regarding Henry. Incidentally, it's not just you. Everyone on this board seems to have him slated that high. I'm just looking for the whys.

 

Thanks, Vader, for engaging in intelligent discussion. It's much appreciated.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

This offense has a lot of upside, and that's a very dangerous word here. I believe that players will be taken according to the offense's upside, and not according to their realistic production. Now, that said, if it's dynasty then there must-haves here on this roster.

 

Jay Cutler - gamble #1. He had some good moments last year, and reasons for hope for owners and potential drafters. However, he's being handed the keys to a Buick (sorry, not a Caddy) and is expected to just pick right up and move forward at lightning speed. Um. Not likely. He's still essentially a rookie, and will have his gray-hair moments in conjunction with some plain old bad games. His upside, though, is very high, and if you can get him later, will be a great #2 coming down the stretch, when he possibly will be finally in synch.

 

Travis Henry - gamble #2. Someone has already posted 1958 total yards to go along with 13 TDs. Those are top five numbers for a journeyman running back. Question for the lovers - why wasn't he signed to something longer term last year? An awful lot of stock is being placed in that contract to convince people that Henry will start. Me, I'm just left wondering when Henry became an all-world talent.

 

Mike Bell - He's not going to stop working, and will see the ball. The question at this point is, "how much?" Worth a late-round pick, and could steal the spotlight if Henry doesn't perform as well some think, or gets injured.

 

Javon Walker - Is probably worth the pick he's going to be taken at. He's a legitimate #1, and I believe he will be better this year. Solid player.

 

Brandon Marshall - gamble #3. Good upside, but again he is so very young. He'll be taken earlier than he ought as the heir apparent to Rod Smith's position, but I think he will struggle and put up pedestrian numbers as compared to his draft position.

 

Daniel Graham - gamble #4. Great talent. New system, new team. How does that fare? Ah, the debate continues. But the fact is that free agent receiver types are always a crapshoot. That said, he should thrive as Cutler's security blanket if he works hard enough. Buyer beware.

 

Tony Scheffler - Interesting. Really good talent and did well last year once Cutler got on the field. I see a lot of two tight end sets in the future for the Broncos.

 

Defense - Could be good, but they have got to address the linebacker position. They are not exciting or dynamic, and don't create a lot of turnovers. Solid, but unspectacular.

 

Good post - I echo your concerns here, and your salary post made me raise an eyebrow as well.

 

I have one more worry about Henry - his first three years he was a chronic fumbler. Admittedly, his last three years have been much better but given Shanahan's itchy trigger finger regarding fumbles (see Tatum Bell), this is another risk to consider. I would let someone else grab him at 6-8 - if he was available to me in the second round, I'd grab him.

[Sparkling Wiggles 0]

Warning to all of you hyping Denver offensive players (especially Henry) this year:

 

The offensive line is not the Broncos offensive line of old. Last season, the Broncos running game struggled. Tatum Bell and Mike Bell both had difficulty at the goal line and in third and short situations. Adam Meadows was brought in last year out of retirement and missed the last few games due to injury. When he played, he didn't impress. Ben Hamilton was a disappointment. Dan Neil (starting guard) is gone. So is George Foster, who was a disaster last year at RT and thrown into the Dre Bly deal. Do some research on Chris Kuper, Adam Pears, Ryan Harris, and Jacob Rogers. Somebody is going to have to start on this line and the options don't look real good.

 

http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=331

 

One of the projected starters is this guy:

 

http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=4...;contentID=7053

 

Note that he suited up for all of New Orleans' games the last half of the season but didn't see the field.

 

Nalen is old. Lepsis is old (and missed most of the year due to injury). Both fit very well into the zone blocking scheme that Denver has employed the last decade (playing along side smaller, quicker linemen). Now that Denver is beefing up, who knows how effective they'll be playing with a completely different mold of linemen surrounding them?

 

Don't take the O-line for granted (at least until you see some preseason games). The new guys are unproven. The Broncos running game suxored last year. In early frafts, I'd avoid overpaying for Henry (and to a lesser extent, Cutler). Let someone else take the risk.

 

You're welcome.

[jdswan922 0]

I forgot where I read this, and obviously they are working out without pads, but what do people know about Domenik Hixon? I was reading he looks very impressive and may compete for the #3 WR spot. Has anyone seen him play before?

[cblue 0]

With Travis Henry getting the money he got, and the fact that the Den didn't go after any significant RB in the draft, this all points to Denver finally having a feature RB for the first time since 2003 with Portis. This is what I see for Henry this season:

 

335 carries

1650 yds

12 TD

4.9 ypc

 

38 rec

308 yds

1 TD

 

I think 1650 yds rushing is too much to expect. Sure it is possible, but I think 1,000 to 1,300 is more likely.

[rebooters 1]

Cutler=

 

Henry=

Bell=

 

Walker=

[kcsportsguy 0]

Cutler will be a solid #2 QB. The kid has a rocket arm and can throw the deep ball. The seondary knowing how great his arm is makes them back up more, which opens up the passing game more. Cutler hit Javon deep many times. Shanahan is a great play caller and puts his QB in plays to fit their strength. Look at Plummer and how many bootlegs were run. Cutler had a low interception mark last year that you can conclude that the kids has a brain and uses it! Good decision making is key in a QB and Cutler has been goomed for this leadership role since college.

 

On Henry, he had other RB to contend with at Buffalo and Tennessee and has always had to run hard to get his yards with those lines. Henry will excell. He also doesn't fumble the ball which can give the other team the ball and force passing instead of running the ball.