Simple question

[J5 0]

A whole lot of discussion recently about valuting Addai into the top 3 or 5. Simply put who do you like more Addai or LJ, and why?

 

I have to admit I pretty torn on this question.

 

LJ-The guy is a beast. Even with the retirement of Roaf last year, the horrible tackle play, no wr's, and Green going down, he carried the team on his back to the playoffs carrying the ball a record amount of times and totaling close to 2200 yards and 19 td's, and finished as the #2 back in fantasy football. The line is improved and Huard and Croyle will battle it out at the qb spot. He is holding out which is a concern, but he will be the undisputed workhorse for his team and will get all the goalline carries, which is what you want in fantasy football, isn't it?

 

Addai-This guy is in a great situation. He finished #11 last year while sharing carries with Rhodes. Had 1400 combined yards with 8 td's (however 5 of those came in 1 game). The retirement of Glenn will hurt the Colts offense and this is a pass first team as Manning loves to call his own number at the goalline, but the scoring chances should be there for Addai and the wr's should open up the run lanes. The Colts however, will have a hug target on their backs this year, have a defense that is not that good, and play the 3rd toughest schedule vs. the run. Addai also has never carried the full load before and it is not known what he will do.

 

So do you take the proven workhorse stud, who is a more talented back on a team with offensive quesiton marks or the potential up and coming back who is in a better offensive situation? Does your opinion change if you play in a keeper league?

[hotgumbo1 12]

exactly.

[J5 0]

That's the probelm. Right now I think I am putting Addai #3 over LJ.

[gottaluvbush 0]

That's the probelm. Right now I think I am putting Addai #3 over LJ.

Can I join your league or is it too late?

[HawgWild 0]

I think a lot of people are moving Addai up their draft boards.. I am not sure I have him over LJ (some days I do, some I don't) yet but if the holdout continues he most certainly will move ahead of LJ...

[Jeremy 0]

Addai appears to have a little better situation, but LJ is more proven. I think he'll get more carries than Addai as well.

 

Everyone is saying LJ is going to be a bust. That almost makes me think he won't be.

[J5 0]

I play in a keeper league and this is the decision I have to make Addai or LJ. Makes it much more complicated.

[bno70_1 0]

LJ

 

Now everyone stop asking.

[thePRO 78]

exactly.

 

Oh you're one of those types of people...

 

Anyways, you have to go with L.J....it's definitely a close call, but Addai has yet to play a full year as the starting back so you have to take that in account. I'm sure he'll do fine, but it's still a bit of a risk seeing as how fresh he'll be toward the end of the season. Plus the Colts obviously have Manning, Harrison and Wayne so they'll still be passing a lot. As for K.C they'll be pounding the ball with L.J more!!

 

So I'd take L.J despite what's going on right now!

[RicemanX 20]

Not ragging oN addai, he will have a great year. But LJ for sure. 100 %.

[unckeyherb 2]

this seems to be the topic of choice through the whole offseason. Its getting quite annoying really. There is no correct answer.

My $.02 on the issue is this:

 

Addai:

 

In his first season he split carries to the tune of 226 atempts for 1081 yards (4.8 ypc.) and 7 TD's.

He was targetted 50 times, recieving 40 for 325 yards (8.1 ypr) and 1 TD.

 

LJ:

 

In his first season of real action (2004) he split carries to the tune of 120 attempts for 581 yards (4.8 ypc) and 9 TD's

He was targeted 29 times, receiving 22 for 278 yards (12.6 ypr) and 2 TD's.

 

The point is they both produced similarly splitting carries in their first season of any real action.

LJ the following year was given main ball carrier duties and flourished for the next two seasons. The team he played for had a diminishing O-line, crap QB play no WR's to stretch the field and last year a new Head Coach which was a downgrade from years prior.

 

Switch over to Addai who is now getting main ball carrier duties, just like LJ did. His team's O-line, with exception to Tarik Glenn (which is admittedly a substantial loss) has not taken any hits. His teams QB play is light years ahead of anything LJ had. The surrounding cast of WR's and the offense as a whole (arguably the best offense in Football.) again is not even comparable. Same HC who led his team to a super bowl win.

 

Knowing this, I think it is fair to expect Addai, in his first year as main ball carrier, to get similar overall numbers to LJ's first year as main ball carrier, with perhaps a few less TD's.

 

That would result in approx. 2000 all purpose yards and 12-15 TD's. While I think this is the ceiling for Addai, I don't think it is ridiculous.

I am expecting a little less (1700, 10-12)

 

 

Do you think LJ will do that this year?

 

If you do, take LJ. If not take Addai.

 

One mans opinion.

[himmystyles 29]

how 'bout in a PPR?

[Ilov80s 0]

I think Addai's potential is slightly lower then LJ's potential is. The risk of taking LJ is not worth the minimal reward.

[bno70_1 0]

I think Addai's potential is slightly lower then LJ's potential is. The risk of taking LJ is not worth the minimal reward.

The "minimal" reward for LJ is 20ish Td's.

What's wrong with you people?

If Addai scores 20 Td's, I'll eat my shirt.

[Pimptaddy 0]

The most underrated of the first round stud RBs are LJ and Shaun Alexander. These guys will have great seasons and make alot of fantasy owners very happy. You will never win a fantasy league picking with the herd. There is a reason the herd always loses. The top four backs should be LT, Jackson, LJ, Shaun.

[wicked joe 0]

Addai in a PPR

Addai in a non-PPR

Addai in a TD heavy league

Addai in ANY league that drafts players who aren't about to break down because their reta^ded head coach can't seem to figure out anything else to do but run and now he wants to give his RB more carries. SO the over worked RB will break down so quickly that no-one will know what hit him (except for the entire defense because they know he will be running it.)

 

And I will finish with ... the COLTS for heavens sake shut Johnson down last season. I smell what the rock is cooking!