Foghorn Leghorn 0 Posted December 19, 2007 The Monte Hall Problem Explained Wow. We were presented this conundrum in a Man.Sci class, and I left the class throughly confused. But after looking at those matrices, I finally got it! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FSW Mephisto 0 Posted December 19, 2007 Wow. We were presented this conundrum in a Man.Sci class, and I left the class throughly confused. But after looking at those matrices, I finally got it! Team A now has a 66.667% chance of winning the title! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chasgh 0 Posted December 20, 2007 NO one commented on the comprimise we came up with....does it seem fair? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Foghorn Leghorn 0 Posted December 20, 2007 NO one commented on the comprimise we came up with....does it seem fair? Well, I'm glad that Team A isn't getting screwed in this. I disagree with the statement: The logic for all this is that we have allowed ties all season long. Its just not fair to retroactively break a tie in the playoffs when we didnt do it during the regualar season. The NFL allows ties in the regular season but not in the playoffs. The NHL used to as well, before deciding that shootouts would make the game more appealing ( ). I think if you decide to retroactively use a list of tiebreakers using the numbers from their game last week (as mentioned in some of the more recent previous posts - TDs, FGs, total yardage, etc.), then the owners involved should be willing to accept the outcome. If I were involved, I would be more open to that than a coin toss, though you've made a pretty decent attempt to mitigate the arbitrary nature of the toss. I'm guessing next year you'll have PLENTY of tiebreakers in place. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FSW Mephisto 0 Posted December 20, 2007 I suggest that the two tied teams play an overtime game in Week 16. The winner advances and goes against the other team that advanced. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jgcrawfish 232 Posted December 20, 2007 I suggest you settle the dispute soon. I think you need to apply decimal scoring for last weeks game. It's really not fair to make the team that qualified for the championship already have to beat the highest of two scores just to win. I'm not quite sure what Monty Hall would say, but I say decimal is fairer than that way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jgcrawfish 232 Posted December 20, 2007 Oh, and going back to the Monty Hall problem...and this is honestly from my own pondering, it's really not that difficult... Option A: You chose a door and stay with your choice. Odds: 1/3 (33%) Option B: You chose a door, one wrong door is eliminated, and you chose again, thus giving you two chances at being right. Odds: (1/3)/(1/2) = .33/.50 = .66 (67%) This is one of those weird situations where logic says you've eliminated a wrong answer so your original answer improves from a 33% success rate to a 50% success rate, but mathematics and logic differ here. The simulator they have a link to consistently produces a 33ish to 66ish split on keeping vs changing your pick. Be sure and try the Monty Hall simulator Monty Hall problem simulator Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chasgh 0 Posted December 20, 2007 Im not familiar with decimal scoring....could someone explain that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FSW Mephisto 0 Posted December 20, 2007 I suggest you settle the dispute soon. I think you need to apply decimal scoring for last weeks game. It's really not fair to make the team that qualified for the championship already have to beat the highest of two scores just to win. I'm not quite sure what Monty Hall would say, but I say decimal is fairer than that way. Yes, changing the scoring system after the game has been played (let alone well into the season) is a good choice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
swirvenirvin 25 Posted December 20, 2007 Im not familiar with decimal scoring....could someone explain that? instead of 1 point for every 10 yards rushing you get .1 for every yard rushing exmaple in most scoring systems 79 yards = 7 points in decimal scoring said player would receive 7.9 points Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FSW Mephisto 0 Posted December 20, 2007 Be sure and try the Monty Hall simulator Monty Hall problem simulator That was fun. 10-times played - changed my choice every time - won the car 9-times. 10-times played - kept my choice every time - won the car 5-times. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingofBeer 0 Posted December 20, 2007 I suggest you settle the dispute soon. I think you need to apply decimal scoring for last weeks game. It's really not fair to make the team that qualified for the championship already have to beat the highest of two scores just to win. I'm not quite sure what Monty Hall would say, but I say decimal is fairer than that way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
donhaas 18 Posted December 20, 2007 I haven't read this whole thread, but if you guys were really men you'd armwrestle and get it over with. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
holamolla 0 Posted December 20, 2007 I suggest that the two tied teams play an overtime game in Week 16. The winner advances and goes against the other team that advanced. dumbest idea ever, you can't be serious. Really you're an idiot..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Octopus 0 Posted December 20, 2007 dumbest idea ever, you can't be serious. Really you're an idiot..... You obviously haven't read through the entire thread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingofBeer 0 Posted December 20, 2007 dumbest idea ever, you can't be serious. Really you're an idiot..... He is an idiot. He says something stupid and thinks he's clever for doing so...not realizing how much of a loser he really is. Can't hate the guy.. just feel sorry for his pathetic life. oh, wait..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FSW Mephisto 0 Posted December 20, 2007 You obviously haven't read through the entire thread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
