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Dan

Passing Yards and Super Bowl Winners

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edjr had a thread regarding the success of potent passing games. A note or two is worthwhile.

 

I didn't hear the specific radio program to which you listened, but this is fact:

 

It's not teams that you should be looking at. The #1 offense has won before. The #1 passing team has won before.

 

The league yardage leader has never won the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner did not lead the league in passing yards the year the Rams won. Steve Beuerlein did. Just saying . . .

 

Another interesting note, for those of you looking at such things. It is not historically a good thing to break the scoring record in a season. Haven't gone back terribly far, but breaking that record has not ended in a Super Bowl victory since at least the 70s.

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All of those are interesting stats. It would also be interesting to see the success of teams that lead the league in point differential. The Patriots set that record this year as well.

 

 

 

Of course, the other important thing to remember is "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results"

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I heard it on the radio, I think I misheard it. I think they said since 1999, which to me is meaningless.

 

Bert corrected me and I said I was going to delete the thread for being wrong.

 

The 1999 Rams lead the NFL in passing and won the superbowl.

 

Many teams have lead the NFL in points and won the superbowl.

 

It is a fact that this century to MVP of the NFL has won the superbowl, but that's pretty meaningless too.

 

Also, I was checking total points scored in the entire nfl scored this year. 11104

 

I checked back to the 80's and the next highest I saw was 10500, I saw some as low as 8000 though. Pretty interesting

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edjr had a thread regarding the success of potent passing games. A note or two is worthwhile.

 

I didn't hear the specific radio program to which you listened, but this is fact:

 

It's not teams that you should be looking at. The #1 offense has won before. The #1 passing team has won before.

 

The league yardage leader has never won the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner did not lead the league in passing yards the year the Rams won. Steve Beuerlein did. Just saying . . .

 

Another interesting note, for those of you looking at such things. It is not historically a good thing to break the scoring record in a season. Haven't gone back terribly far, but breaking that record has not ended in a Super Bowl victory since at least the 70s.

 

 

Oh, that is what I heard, it wasn't the team, it was the QB. I didn't mishear, I mistyped.

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BTW - Check point differential. I have not gone through everything, but

- 2006 Colts did not lead in PD (Ravens did)

- 2005 Steelers did not lead in PD

- 2004 Patriots did lead in PD

- 2003 Patriots did not lead in PD

- 2002 Bucs did not lead in PD

- 2001 Patriots did not lead in PD

- 2000 Ravens did not lead in PD

 

So, in the last 7 years, only one team leading in point differential won the SB.

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Many teams have lead the NFL in points and won the superbowl.

 

Yes, but my specific reference was to record breakers. The Vikings broke the scoring record and flopped before the Super Bowl. The Redskins set the scoring record and were promptly thumped in the Super Bowl. I think they are the only two teams to break the record since 1980.

 

Semantics, but fun to dig up. :music_guitarred:

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Yes, but my specific reference was to record breakers. The Vikings broke the scoring record and flopped before the Super Bowl. The Redskins set the scoring record and were promptly thumped in the Super Bowl. I think they are the only two teams to break the record since 1980.

 

Semantics, but fun to dig up. :music_guitarred:

 

I wasn't refuting what you found, just that when I looked, a lot of teams that lead the league in points, won the superbowl. I agree it is fun to dig this stuff up, you're better at it than I am. keep up the good work.

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It's not teams that you should be looking at. The #1 offense has won before. The #1 passing team has won before.

 

The league yardage leader has never won the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner did not lead the league in passing yards the year the Rams won. Steve Beuerlein did. Just saying . . .

 

Dan, I don't understand. You are saying that the player that led the league in passing yardage has not won the Super Bowl before?

 

If that's what you're saying, I'm not sure why you'd expect any individual statistic to correlate to Super Bowl wins anyway.

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Dan, I don't understand. You are saying that the player that led the league in passing yardage has not won the Super Bowl before?

 

If that's what you're saying, I'm not sure why you'd expect any individual statistic to correlate to Super Bowl wins anyway.

 

I'm not suggesting a correlation. Just an interesting statistic that has come up. But yes, that is what I'm saying.

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Take a look at the top teams in NFL history in terms of point differential (one of the records the Pats broke). Almost all the top teams won the SB the same year with few exceptions. I've posted it before but I don't have time to do it right now.

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from a Greg Easterbrook article:

 

When Being No. 1 Isn't a Good Thing

 

Year QB Team Yards Result

2007 Tom Brady Patriots 4806 ???

2006 Drew Brees Saints 4418 Lost NFC championship

2005 Tom Brady Patriots 4110 Lost division round

2004 Daunte Culpepper Vikings 4717 Lost division round

2003 Peyton Manning Colts 4267 Lost AFC championship

2002 Rich Gannon Raiders 4689 Lost Super Bowl

2001 Kurt Warner Rams 4830 Lost Super Bowl

2000 Peyton Manning Colts 4413 Lost wild card

1999 Steve Beuerlein Panthers 4436 Missed playoffs

1998 Brett Favre Packers 4212 Lost wild card

1997 Jeff George Raiders 3917 Missed playoffs

1996 Mark Brunell Jaguars 4367 Lost AFC championship

1995 Brett Favre Packers 4413 Lost NFC championship

1994 Drew Bledsoe Patriots 4555 Lost wild card

1993 John Elway Broncos 4030 Lost wild card

1992 Dan Marino Dolphins 4116 Lost AFC championship

1991 Warren Moon Oilers 4690 Lost division round

1990 Warren Moon Oilers 4689 Lost wild card

1989 Don Majkowski Packers 4318 Missed playoffs

1988 Dan Marino Dolphins 4434 Missed playoffs

1987 Neil Lomax Cardinals 3387 Missed playoffs

1986 Dan Marino Dolphins 4746 Missed playoffs

1985 Dan Marino Dolphins 4137 Lost AFC championship

1984 Dan Marino Dolphins 5084 Lost Super Bowl

1983 Lynn Dickey Packers 4458 Missed playoffs

1982 Dan Fouts Chargers 2883 Lost division round

1981 Dan Fouts Chargers 4802 Lost AFC championship

1980 Dan Fouts Chargers 4715 Lost AFC championship

1979 Dan Fouts Chargers 4082 Lost division round

1978 Fran Tarkenton Vikings 3468 Lost division round

1977 Joe Ferguson Bills 2803 Missed playoffs

1976 Bert Jones Colts 3104 Lost division round

1975 Ken Anderson Bengals 3169 Lost division round

1974 Ken Anderson Bengals 2667 Missed playoffs

1973 Roman Gabriel Eagles 3219 Missed playoffs

1972 Joe Namath Jets 2816 Missed playoffs

1971 John Hadl Chargers 3075 Missed playoffs

1970 John Brodie 49ers 2941 Lost NFC championship

1969 Daryle Lamonica Raiders 3302 Lost AFL championship

1968 John Hadl Chargers 3473 Missed playoffs

1967 Joe Namath Jets 4007 Missed playoffs

1966 Joe Namath Jets 3379 Missed playoffs

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Meh. The vast majority of teams in that group did not even get a bye for the playoffs. Among those that did:

-the 2002 Raiders only went 11-5

-the 2001 Rams were the only team within the last 20 years that had home field advantage. They lost the Super Bowl by 3

-the 1992 Dolphins were one of four 11-5 teams in the AFC that year

-the 1984 and 1985 Dolphins - both years the Super Bowl was won by a 15-1 team

-the 1980 Chargers were one of five 11-5 teams in the AFC that year

-the 1979 Chargers went 12-4 and lost to an 11-5 team

-I didn't go back further than that

 

Out of that entire group, there's only one team that I would put as being near the 2007 Patriots company in the regular season, the Rams, and they came pretty darn close.

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