Article: RB Workloads

[Mike FF Today 608]

If you only read one fantasy article a year, I'd say this would be a good one to choose...

 

RB Workloads: A Study of Heavy Workload vs. Future Production

[cinciman7 2]

As always, good stuff.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Good stuff.

[ERZER 0]

A very interesting and valuable study.

[FlaHawker 24]

Greta read!

[PackYourNut 47]

Good stuff...

 

I think Gore has a chance to peak this year under Martz. If Smith develops and Gore stays healthy, I like his chances. I believe the addition of Foster will help a lot.

[Wildman 0]

Tony San Nicholas (forum login is "NAn") first researched this in 2005 and did such a terrific job of it that it was an easy article to develop. Tony deserves a lot of credit for thinking of this concept.

[remote controller 133]

We have been using it, and his info on breakout wr's for the last 3 years for FFT's IBL squad! Tony has done his research on this. Thanks for an update with the great article!

[CedarGrovePack 2]

Great info. Makes me want to slide SJax down below Addai, Lynch, Barber & Grant.

[9-Route 0]

awesome as always, wildman.

 

tomlinson's situation versus his track record is still the biggest decision at the top of the draft.

 

1) ive posted before that a better qb, carson palmer, took the 1st half of his return season to regain top form during his comeback yr, and in only the second half did he post better stats---again, rivers is not palmer, both statistically or physically (arm), and it is arguable that johnson+housh>gates+any diego wr.

 

2) the knee injury late last yr is the first dent of this sorts in his proverbial armor.

 

3) the loss of turner has been documented, and point #1 makes a greater lean upon the diego run game a very valid argument.

 

4) track record is huge, obviously: 129TDs in 7 yrs; but, in those stats also lies the average of 338carries over those 7 yrs, with a basically career low 315 last yr.

 

 

i dont know; i took him in a league at 1 last yr, and i did win it; would i do it again? or do peterson's youth and upside cover his injury risk?

[Wildman 0]

Tough call in a non-ppr league. I took LT in a mock this week with the #1 pick in a WCOFF scoring system although I gave Westbrook a thought or two as well. I am afraid the odds are against LT continuing his play. From a non-stats point of view, I'm completely sold on Peterson. I think this season and the next might be the best years of his career, just from gut feeling and collective years of watching players and their careers, but there's nothing tangible to substantiate it. I have the top pick in GOIDPANKAL this year and I'm pretty sure I'm going to take my chance on Peterson for the factors you mentioned and the fact I just think he has a good chance to explode.

[9-Route 0]

Tough call in a non-ppr league. I took LT in a mock this week with the #1 pick in a WCOFF scoring system although I gave Westbrook a thought or two as well. I am afraid the odds are against LT continuing his play. From a non-stats point of view, I'm completely sold on Peterson. I think this season and the next might be the best years of his career, just from gut feeling and collective years of watching players and their careers, but there's nothing tangible to substantiate it. I have the top pick in GOIDPANKAL this year and I'm pretty sure I'm going to take my chance on Peterson for the factors you mentioned and the fact I just think he has a good chance to explode.

 

yeah, i concur. as for "peterson good chance to explode" :

 

the vikes just look to me like the 2000 ravens:

 

the stud defensive tackles allowing back-to-back #1 rush defense ranks [ravens had siragusa and adams].

 

now a premier edge rush on passing downs to get the defense off the field and the offense extra opportunities [ravens had mccrary and boulware in top form].

 

powerful offensive line with arguably best left side in football in mckinnie-hutchinson-birk [ravens had ogden-mulitalo-mitchell].

 

the quiet, lesser known qb with long strike capability [remember the playoff run of dilfer? 96-yarder to sharpe vs oakland? 50-yarder off bobble to sharpe vs denver? 50-yarder to sharpe vs titans? 50-yarder TD to stokley in SB?]

 

 

if tjackson can be mistake-free/low-mistake, they have the deep scares off play action to score quickly [they showed flashes in that early chicago game, and late detroit game]. i think the defense will provide a lot of short fields for the offense, and childress knows the invigorating effect on the rest of the team of pumping his workhorse into the end zone. if this defense becomes truly suffocating like those 2000 ravens, peterson could surely have a chance at a special season.

[9-Route 0]

wildman,

 

ive never owned westbrook. i see ffers in constant laud of him. i just always felt he is good, but with his standard "3-explosion-games per year" to pad his overall seasonal tallies. plus, the eagles just seem to have lost that 'edge' and gained more dysfunction.

 

yet, your argument about his lower workload/wear-and-tear is something to heavily consider amidst the topic of hb falloff. in a PPR, i will nod to the consensus he is a top3-4 worthy candidate, among tomlinson, peterson, and addai.

 

is he that highly ranked to you in non-PPR format?

[Wildman 0]

wildman,

 

ive never owned westbrook. i see ffers in constant laud of him. i just always felt he is good, but with his standard "3-explosion-games per year" to pad his overall seasonal tallies. plus, the eagles just seem to have lost that 'edge' and gained more dysfunction.

 

yet, your argument about his lower workload/wear-and-tear is something to heavily consider amidst the topic of hb falloff. in a PPR, i will nod to the consensus he is a top3-4 worthy candidate, among tomlinson, peterson, and addai.

 

is he that highly ranked to you in non-PPR format?

1 Y 13.1

2 Y 16.2

3 Y 40.1

6 Y 15.6

7 Y 11.9

8 Y 21.2

9 Y 21.5

10 Y 36.3

11 Y 14.8

12 Y 15.2

13 Y 19.9

14 Y 21.4

15 Y 14.4

16 Y 10.9

17 Y 9.9

 

TD Distance

Rushing: 25, 5, 1, 3, 10, 1, 29

Receiving: 43, 6, 4, 57, 18

 

2006 Gamelog Stats

Lindy's Mock Scoring: Review Scoring

Rushing Receiving Fantasy

Week FFPts

1 19.2

2 18.4

3 34.4

5 14.6

6 7.5

7 27.4

8 10.6

10 15.0

11 14.8

12 23.0

13 18.4

14 12.6

15 25.7

16 12.8

17 3.2

 

RB Crank Scores 2-years in nonppr league

 

Let's look at it this way...in a non-ppr league, 13.22 fpts is the average output for the 24th best RB in any given week in a 12-team fantasy league for the past two years. Westbrook was at that mark or better 70% of the time from 2006-2007. Only LT and LJ have slightly better rates.

 

18.02 points or greater is equivalent to the average weekly output of one of the two best RBs in any given week for a 12-team league. Westbrook hit that mark or bettered it 43% of the time. Again only LJ and LT were better in the same two-year period.

 

Bottom line for me (a Westbrook owner in two dynasty leagues) is Westbrook is a top three back based on his recent track record.

[ens189 1]

The only problem I have is you said that LT is gonna have Darren Sproles as a change of pace but not to soften up defenses. I was under the impression that Hester was gonna be the backup who could go in and weaken the opposition with Sproles being a Special Teamer and situational back.

 

Otherwise it was a fantastic article and something I'm definitely gonna use in my upcoming drafts.

[Candygram4Mongo 8]

I love this article, every year.

I just read it to my 4yr old daughter for bedtime.

 

She was asleep in no time.

[Mike FF Today 608]

I just read it to my 4yr old daughter for bedtime.

 

Nice.

[Wildman 0]

The only problem I have is you said that LT is gonna have Darren Sproles as a change of pace but not to soften up defenses. I was under the impression that Hester was gonna be the backup who could go in and weaken the opposition with Sproles being a Special Teamer and situational back.

 

Otherwise it was a fantastic article and something I'm definitely gonna use in my upcoming drafts.

 

We'll find out about the back up RB. I'm putting my money on Sproles. Hester is a decent straight line runner, but I didn't think he was as good as Brian Leonard, a player many compare him to.

 

I don't envision a 3-back rotation I envision Hester as a FB and maybe a 2-3 carry RB in a game at best. I see Sproles getting 7-10 touches on offense. He's far and away the more dynamic player. And why does LT need someone to soften up the defense? He's the one that will do it. Turner just happened to be a bruiser who could keep LT fresh. They'll just use Sproles in a different way to help tire defenses out.

[ens189 1]

Either way they have a very strong backfield there. Every type of style you could want from your running back corps and the best runner in the game.

[Foghorn Leghorn 0]

Tony San Nicholas (forum login is "NAn") first researched this in 2005 and did such a terrific job of it that it was an easy article to develop. Tony deserves a lot of credit for thinking of this concept.

 

I remember NAn's and tj's thread back then. I was one of their backers then, and even moreso now.

[Tripenny 0]

Maybe my approach is obsolete, but I prefer the RB-heavy early round draft selections. This article will help me discriminate between some close calls, a challenge at points simply relying on projections, etc. Excessive workload and the residual wear-down is as valid a means of screening future performance, as the statistics show, as the movement of o-linemen, qb health, etc. in determining production in subsequent years. Nice article!

[Moonlight 0]

Are playoff f/carries included in the totals or the 370 benchmark?

[Wildman 0]

Nope. Regular season only, but that's an interesting question that might be worth further investigation. Right off the bat, that just shows how special Emmitt Smith was as a runner.