Larry Johnson: RB, Kansas City Chiefs

[Kilroy 0]

Larry Johnson entered the NFL as a first round pick of the Kansas City Chiefs back in 2003. As a rookie however, he found himself playing behind Priest Holmes, who returned healthy following a late season injury in 2002. Johnson would play in just 6 games his first year and only handled 20 carries.

 

During his sophomore campaign, and with the chance to showcase his talent a bit more, Johnson put up impressive results with the 120 carries he was given. He finished the 2004 season averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry while rushing for 581 yards and 9 touchdowns. He also added 2 more touchdowns among his 22 receptions for 278 yards.

 

The following year turned out to be a monster outing for the former first round pick. Despite starting just 9 games in 2005, Johnson carried the ball 336 times for an eye-popping 1750 yards. Equally as impressive were his 20 rushing touchdowns. He again proved to be a worthwhile option out of the backfield, finishing with 33 receptions for 343 yards and another score.

 

The 2006 season would be the first in which Johnson entered an NFL season as their starting running back, and he didn't disappoint. Following his break-out performance in 2005, Johnson carried the ball 416 times under new head coach Herm Edwards. He would finish the season with 1789 yards on the ground and 17 rushing touchdowns. He also set career highs in receptions (41) and receiving yards (410) along with scoring 2 more touchdowns through the air.

 

Despite his previous two years of success, the 2007 season would prove to be a difficult one for Johnson. He was still used as a workhorse back for the Chiefs, but averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 158 rushing attempts through 8 games before his season was cut short by a foot injury. He finished the year with 559 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns, while posting 30 receptions for 186 yards and 1 score.

 

Come the start of the 2008 campaign, will Johnson's body allow him to ragain the form he had earlier in his career, or has the 752 carries he endured in his 2005 and 2006 seasons already maxed him out? There are also concerns about the blocking he now has in front of him, along with the fact the Chiefs have a young QB under center which may allow defenses to stack 8 men in the box, making Johnson's productivity all the more limited.

 

Does Johnson's yards per carry rebound to something in the respectable 4.0-4.2 range, or is he nothing more than a plodder in the backfield who needs 25 carries a week just to push the 100-yard mark?

[RLLD 4,172]

[Me_2006 14]

Near the turn, best option you're gonna get. Over guys who haven't been beaten into the ground--I'll pass. It's not as if he's an injury prone RB in a great situation. You're not assured of anything besides carries even if he can stay healthy and a first round price for a back with the two biggest ?'s regarding FF RBs productivity is just too steep. I think he's probably stepping up in regards to his stats last year, but it's not enough of a step to warrant the draft selection it would take to snag him.

[LOD01 198]

Horrid OL and the Herminator who works his magic again as he decimates an offense. Stepping down.

[sirwinzalot 1]

LJ will be a top ten RB this season, they've added some new O-linemen that should help in the run game, and let's face it he's one of the few that won't have to split carries, Chan Gailey's arrival will also improve the offense from where it was when Solari (who never ran an offense before) was there. It can't possibly get worse than last year, so he'll definately be on his way up this year.

[cblue 0]

He is a gamble as a RB2, I wouldn't mind having him as my RB3.

[mdm_1971 0]

i will pass....the line still stinks....the qb stinks so i dont see how he gets around 8 in the box

[Me_2006 14]

He is a gamble as a RB2, I wouldn't mind having him as my RB3.

So you don't think Westy will make it back to you in the third?

[Belushi 9]

I voted staying put. After last season, I don't see how he could step down any further. On the other hand, I don't see much reason for optimism that this season will be any better than last year. What's changed? They got some rookie O-linemen? And the drafting of Charles doesn't help either.

[Lionsjunkie 1]

I'm going stepping-up

 

Most seem to forget that just a few years back he was running over the NFL and anybody in his path. Last years poor season should be atributed to LJ missing training camp, not the fact that his O-line isn't the same. A great back (which I would consider LJ) can run behind a shoddy line... just see Barry Sanders and you'll see why I think LJ bounces back and easily finishes in Top 10 and I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish Top 5.

 

You can't use the arguement that a shitty QB will limit a great RB ~ see AP last year

 

The KC line has got better IMO, a new O.C and another year under the belt of Croyle and I think we see LJ explode again this year.

 

I am actually hoping I land a pick close to 8-9-10 and LJ is still available

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Offense sucks, Herm sucks and he has a ton of miles.

 

All that being said, compared to last year, he'll be stepping up. Still not very good though, I wouldnt want to burn a 1st round pick on him.

[bno70_1 0]

It would be pretty impossible for him not to step up this year based on last year's stats. It would take an injury really, and I don't make a habit of guessing about injuries. So, stepping up.

But, the real question is, will he be worth his ADP? To that, I say no way.

[murf74 461]

I think everyone forgets when he did play last year early he was just getting into shape from sitting out camp....then they had a brutal schedule to start the season. He started getting better and then injury got him. He had 4 TDs in his last 3 games...

 

Stepping up.

[Wildman 0]

Compared to two years ago, Steppin' Down. I'd like him as a second back, but there are a few more #2 RBs I'd rather have and I don't believe he'll last that long if I'm picking at the turn. His workload makes the odds of him coming back to fantasy prominence as a #1 RB is unlikely. KC will be forced to throw more often, because I believe the defense takes a bit of a downturn without Jared Allen. Dorsey may help enough that Tamba Hali--a good, young player--can keep his game close to where it was with Allen on the other side, but I'm not confident it will be a certainty. With the defense on the field more often, that's more points for opposing offenses, and more catch up for the Chiefs. I think the AFC West teams have gotten better this year while KC has somewhat stayed put. The draft helped, but I'm not sure enough for them to be noticeably better this year.

[ieatchickens 0]

He is a gamble as a RB2, I wouldn't mind having him as my RB3.

 

4 team league??

[famousb 11]

last year he played in 8 games.

in those 8 games he had over 700 total yds and 4 tds and 30 recs. projected to a full year, that's 1400/8/60.

i don't think he'll get 60 recs, but i don't see why he couldn't get 1400/8/40 - which puts him right around #10-12 RB going by historical numbers...

 

also, for whoever said he has a ton of miles, go learn to read a stat line - he's got 1050 total carries - and almost 1/2 of that came in a single year. other than 2 years ago, he has 1 year w/ 336 carries, the 158, 120, and 20.

Go look at Portis, JLew, LT, etc... and compare their mileage.

 

if Herm really does limit his carries to ~20/game, that puts LJ right at a good number of 320 carries for the year. Multiply that times last years ypc of 3.5 and you get 1120 rushing yds. Multiply that by his career avg of 4.5 and you get 1440.

I'd guess he lands right in the middle at 4.0 and has around the 1250-1350 mark at years end...

 

so from last year's numbers, he has to step up unless you bet on injuries. I think those that say otherwise are just those that got burned because they didn't heed the warnings of the 400+ carry season and back-to-back 1700+ yd seasons...

[akaoni 0]

This year I'm looking at LJ as a value type player. While I don't think his team has the offense to make him the beast he was a couple of years ago, I think he'll get plenty of carries and will continue to be the focus of the offense. That means production. He remains a great goal line back and should get his share of TDs (albeit a lesser share due to KC's horrid offense).

 

So where to select LJ? In a standard snake draft I think he'd be good value late 1st/early 2nd in a 12 team league. More than likely he will go earlier than that on name alone, and thus won't have great value in my book. But if I were picking late 1st early 2nd and he fell to me I might take a chance on him.

 

This is coming from someone who begrudgingly selected LJ in the first round in 2 seperate leagues last year.

[GeneralofChaos42 0]

I think LJ could be a stud this year, the man has speed and the ability to break tackles. I feel Trev Albert going to be a major addition to the KC offensive line. LJ wants to prove something this year, so do not be shocked if has a big year.

[nashtx 0]

I almost see him as a sleeper. Training camp hold out for 07 - soft to start the year. LJ always starts slow and finishes hard.

Big time rest from his foot injury and the OL while not much better, did have a chance to put a year of experience under the belt.

I took him at #14 as Moss dropped into my lap at #7. In a PPR league, LJ is under valued as is the questionable Reggie Bush.

I'm comfortable predicting a 1200+ yd season with 8-9 TDs 35 catches 400 yds and another 2 TDs

 

 

 

Season Team Rushing Receiving Fumbles

G GS Att Yds Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost

2007 Kansas City Chiefs 8 8 158 559 3.5 54 3 30 186 6.2 30T 1 1 1

2006 Kansas City Chiefs 16 16 416 1,789 4.3 47 17 41 410 10.0 78 2 2 2

2005 Kansas City Chiefs 16 9 336 1,750 5.2 49T 20 33 343 10.4 36 1 5 4

[Brownsfan21 1]

I almost see him as a sleeper. Training camp hold out for 07 - soft to start the year. LJ always starts slow and finishes hard.

Big time rest from his foot injury and the OL while not much better, did have a chance to put a year of experience under the belt.

I took him at #14 as Moss dropped into my lap at #7. In a PPR league, LJ is under valued as is the questionable Reggie Bush.

I'm comfortable predicting a 1200+ yd season with 8-9 TDs 35 catches 400 yds and another 2 TDs

Season Team Rushing Receiving Fumbles

G GS Att Yds Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost

2007 Kansas City Chiefs 8 8 158 559 3.5 54 3 30 186 6.2 30T 1 1 1

2006 Kansas City Chiefs 16 16 416 1,789 4.3 47 17 41 410 10.0 78 2 2 2

2005 Kansas City Chiefs 16 9 336 1,750 5.2 49T 20 33 343 10.4 36 1 5 4

 

steppin up. No RBBC. He is a must start every sunday. I expect a good year I say he punches in 13 TD's.

[BirdBradyBobbyOrr 0]

4 team league??

 

HAHA! Sorry but that made my day.