My early top 14 fantasy rookie picks

[madd futher mucker 36]

1st - my Senior Bowl notes:

QB: Really didn't see much out of the QB play (some very bad QB play for the most part). What did stand out was Pat White's super athleticism. But I was interested in Mayocks? comment about him needing to work at WR or returner, instead of QB. I see him very much like I saw Tim Tebow - a real project if he stays at QB - he probably will go 4th round or lower.

 

WR: Iglesias really had a good game here; IMO he stood head-and shoulders above any other WR in the game (no pun intended to Barden fans - BTW Barden looked like crap all week) . Because the quarterbacking was so generally bad, it was hard to evaluate WRs, but another guy who moved up based on his route running alone was Ohio State's Brian Robiske.

 

RB: I was really interested in how Rashad Jennings would do against tougher competition than he faced in college. He made a few nice runs but did not show me anything special tonite. I'd say i was underwhelmed with what I saw, particularly relative to his highlight video while at Liberty - but perhaps my expectations were a little too high. He had a great week of practice at the Senior Bowl, so he had already showed he belonged as most likely the top senior RB.

 

It was a good nite for the RBs in general: Andre Brown, James Davis, Jeremiah Johnson, and Cedric Peerman all made some plays and showed flashes of NFL potential. One guy I didn't expect to be too high on, and who wowed me with his moves was Kory Sheets.......he really looked explosive, and also ran inside with some determination if not having great results between the tackles. But given his total collegiate body of work, his showing tonite might have only moved him up to the 4th round or so.

 

 

Now for my updated top 14: (again I'll not attempt to slot in the QBs, mainly because I'm not a fan of drafting rookie QBs unless I feel they have a pretty good chance of being 'franchise QBs', which I really don't see in any of these guys.

 

1. Crabtree - WR Texas 6'3" 214 - He's not Calvin Johnson or Fitz, but he's the 'safest' pick in the draft.

2. Moreno - RB Georgia - 5'11" 208 - I see the potential to be better than Marshawn Lynch.

3. Maclin - WR Missouri -6'1" 205 - The best pure receiver in the draft.

4. Harvin - WR Florida - 5'11" 196 - Some risk here, but very high ceiling if used in a Reggie Bush-like role in the NFL.

5. McCoy - RB Pittsburgh - 5'11" 208 - I rate him just under Moreno, but he is faster.

6. Heywood-Bey - WR Maryland 6'2" 205 - Maybe has the highest ceiling of any WR - Big and fast.

7. Nicks - WR North Carolina 6'1" 215 - A strong, very athletic playmaker WR.

8. Greene - RB Iowa 5'11' 230 -A power RB with very good speed - reminds me of Michael Turner (rate him lower in PPR leagues)

9. Britt - WR Rutgers 6'4" 205 - He's starting to grow on me, He will be a very good possession WR in the NFL

10. Brown - RB Connecticut 5'10' 210 - Just does everything well - reminds me of Matt Forte

11. Wells - RB Ohio State 6'1" 232 - Would be the top RB in the draft, but many have concerns that he is injury prone and not a 'gamer'.

12. Iglesias - WR Oklahoma 6'1" 200 - The Senior Bowl week moved him up. All the tools to become a top 25 NFL WR.

13. Robiskie - WR Ohio State 6'3" 197 - Ditto as Iglesias, except he is your big possession receiver rather than your playmaker.

14. Jennings - RB Liberty 6'1 232 - Built like Wells, almost as fast. Small school raw talent - showed he could play with the big boys at the Senior Bowl (had 3 great practice days).

 

After these 14 guys I see a drop-off, although Jarrett Dillard, Rice WR would easily be my #15 pick.

 

At TE, Pettigrew will likely go in the 1st round because of his all-around game , but he will be a better NFL tight end than a Fantasy TE - in other words, more like a Heath Miller (great blocker, good receiver), than a Dustin Keller (great receiver, mediocre blocker).

[Kopy 491]

I still stay Greene and Brown are the 2 safest picks at RB. Draft them, get them signed and into camp, and you have a very solid starter from day 1.

[Cuse9 128]

Seems like Chris Wells stock has been dropping. Other than his injury this year is there anything performance wise you don't like? I think alot of people are down on him for not playing this year when they think he could have. Personally, I don't like the guy, hope he fails.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Beanie is an immense talent, but seriously I could justify ranking him lower. The truth is that I would draft Rashon Jennings before I drafted Beanie. It is hard to like a RB that has a low threshold of pain. Add to that a 6'1 RB that runs a tad upright - a recipe for disaster.

 

Jennings is a rawer but coachable talent almost identical in size (who runs about a 4.5). He also sometimes runs a little upright, but he instinctively lowers his pad level just before direct contact with a defender. Wells seldom lowers his pad level.

 

I want a RB who gives defenders a smaller target - harder to bring down and fewer injuies. In a collision with an opponent, the one who gets lower generally wins.

 

I also want a RB like Portis, like Westbrook, and like Travis Henry was (not withstanding his other 'issues'), who is a 'gamer'. He may be too hurt to practice all week, but on Sunday, if he can walk at all, you know he'll be playing.

 

Fortunately I know that in my deep keeper fantasy leagues, Beanie will be gone long before it is my turn to pick.

 

BTW Cuse, I'm sure you noticed that 2 guys who YOU singled out early definitely caught my attention during Senior Bowl week, and it carried forward to the game - Iglesius and Robiskie.

[JT 137]

Is Maclin legitimately that big? I had the impression he was more in the 5'10-11" range.

 

Not surprised that Robiskie impressed. In addition to his ability, doesn't he have a pro pedigree? I always think it's a big advantage for a kid who has someone close to him that knows how it works.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Is Maclin legitimately that big? I had the impression he was more in the 5'10-11" range.

 

I have seen him listed on most websites at 6'1. his weight is variously listed as between 200 -206. The Combine will tell us for sure.

 

Not surprised that Robiskie impressed. In addition to his ability, doesn't he have a pro pedigree? I always think it's a big advantage for a kid who has someone close to him that knows how it works.

 

His dad is the Atlanta Falcons coach for WRs. It doesn't get any better than that.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

I definatly wouldn't have 5 WRs in the 1st 7 of dynasty rankings.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I definatly wouldn't have 5 WRs in the 1st 7 of dynasty rankings.

 

If you really want people to 'listen2you' you'll have to explain who IS in your top 7 and why do you say you wouldn't have 5 WRs in the top 7. It is easy to make a statement here, much harder to back it up with some intelligent reasoning. I'd sure like to know what your thinking is and who you'd rank ahead of them.

 

I stand by my top 7 (except I might rank Nicks ahead of Heywood-Bey). But they would all be in my 1st tier - they appear to have MORE of the qualities that COULD make them NFL studs. (But only 2 or 3 - maybe 4 of them - will actually reach their pre-draft potential to become one.)

 

There is a slight separation in my mind between the guys above and Green, Britt, and Brown, who make up a 2nd tier IMO. I understand where Kopy is coming from on Greene and Brown, and one could make the same argument for Britt.

Pretty safe picks to be quality NFL players (but i don't see the 'wow factor' in these 3 guys).

 

The 3rd tier 11-14 guys all are slightly greater gambles IMO.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

If you really want people to 'listen2you' you'll have to explain who IS in your top 7 and why do you say you wouldn't have 5 WRs in the top 7. It is easy to make a statement here, much harder to back it up with some intelligent reasoning. I'd sure like to know what your thinking is and who you'd rank ahead of them.

 

1. K. Moreno- RB- The kid is the real deal. Ran real well in the best defensive conf. in the nation.

2. C. Wells-RB- Injury Prone, but his potential is too high to pass on.

3. M. Crabtree-WR- Not overly thrilled about him. Played terrible defenses in a spread offense. Has good potential to put up some TDs.

4. D. Brown-RB- Total package. Has enough speed and runs real hard. I liked the Forte comparison someone mentioned.

5. L. McCoy-RB- May take a few years, but he has the talent.

6. J. Maclin-WR- really like this kid, playmaker.

7. Heyward-Bey-WR- I think he has potential to be the best WR of this class.

8. S. Greene-RB- Solid Solid player. Hope he goes to a team that will give him a shot right off the bat.

9. J. Ringer-RB- Small, but runs hard.

10. K. Britt-WR-

 

Look at least year. I know the RBs were better, but Forte in the 2nd round was a great. In a dynasty grab your young RBs, take the gifted WR, pass on the Harvins of the draft.

[granta_05 3]

3. Maclin - WR Missouri -6'1" 205 - The best pure receiver in the draft.

I gotta disagree with you there. Fastest WR in the draft? Yeah, most likely. I assume by "pure receiver" you are talking about hands, route-running ability, etc. If so, Maclin isn't the best. He has elite speed, and could be a force in the return game immediately, but he has some things to work on before he can become a stud WR in the NFL. He won't be able to simply outrun the defense anymore.

 

That being said, if I'm running a team looking for a WR, and he was still on the board (assuming Crabtree is gone), I'd pick him in a heartbeat.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks for explaining.

 

Beanie Wells potential IS NOT too talented for ME to pass on. I see the 2nd coming of Cedric Benson in him.

 

I was the one who made the comparison of Donald Brown to Forte. Forte benefited greatly from the situation he was drafted into. And Forte became a better NFL receiver than he showed in college. i think the 'does everything well, nothing great' description fits both of them. Don't get me wrong - I'm a member of the Donald Brown fan club - just don't see the "wow factor". Harvin could easily become a "special player" in the NFL, and Nicks compares much more closely to Crabs than alost anyone admits (Similar size and strengths). Crabs reminds me a little more of Boldin and Nicks reminds me more of Reggie Wayne). I like all 14 players but last year was the year of the RBs - IMO this year the Wrs have the greater talent for the most part.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

Thanks for explaining.

 

Beanie Wells potential IS NOT too talented for ME to pass on. I see the 2nd coming of Cedric Benson in him.

 

 

I see much more break away speed from Beanie than I ever saw with Benson.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I gotta disagree with you there. Fastest WR in the draft? Yeah, most likely. I assume by "pure receiver" you are talking about hands, route-running ability, etc. If so, Maclin isn't the best. He has elite speed, and could be a force in the return game immediately, but he has some things to work on before he can become a stud WR in the NFL. He won't be able to simply outrun the defense anymore.

 

That being said, if I'm running a team looking for a WR, and he was still on the board (assuming Crabtree is gone), I'd pick him in a heartbeat.

 

Maybe my term' pure receiver' is misleading. While I don't see him as deficient in route running, hands, or other facets of his game, there are a lot of big possession receivers in this group, but none who can stretch a defense like Maclin and still juke you with run after catch ability. Of all the receivers here, he's probably a cornerbacks worst nightmare.

 

At the other extreme, perhaps Robiskie is the best 'pure receiver' from a technique standpoint, but again he can't stretch the defense with homerun speed. I think we are saying the same thing however, just speaking a slightly different language.

 

ALL of these guys have facets of their game to work on to become elite at the next level - and none of them is a 'can't miss' either. Perhaps the most NFL ready is Robiskie, but he's a little was behind the rest when it comes to some of the things you can't teach that can make a WR a stud.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I see much more break away speed from Beanie than I ever saw with Benson.

 

You don't remember the hype when Benson came out? He was drafted 4th overall in 2005 and was labeled by many as a 'can't miss'. Benson was also a big back with break-away speed at this stage of his career at Texas. I believe they will have very close 40 times at the Combine - both somewhere around 4.45 - 4.5 (Benson's combine time was 4.51, Wells MIGHT be 4.43 or something - not DMac or Chris Brown caliber). And I agree that Beanie has all the measurables and immense talent - but so did Benson, and Benson ran with a much lower pad level, even in college.

 

I just think Beanie is a 'soft' back - not a 'gamer' - much like Benson - although while Beanie already shows sign that he is a 'soft' RB, Benson was known as a tough RB in college. Time will tell.

 

Edit: Benson's 2005 combine results and scouting report:

Combine/Workouts:

40 yard dash: 4.51

20 yard shuttle: 4.33

Vertical jump: 33

225 pound bench press: 18

Broad jump: 9-8

3-cone drill: 7.18

Analysis: Cedric Benson has deceptive speed when in the open field. Shows elusiveness and runs with a low center of gravity, not giving defenders much of an area to hit. Even when Benson is hit his tremendous balance allows him to gain extra yardage, very hard to bring down with only one defender. Physically gifted athlete who seems to run hard and stronger as the game wears on. Benson is also a better than average receiver although he is not used as often in the passing game. Source: Draft.com

[granta_05 3]

Maybe my term' pure receiver' is misleading. While I don't see him as deficient in route running, hands, or other facets of his game, there are a lot of big possession receivers in this group, but none who can stretch a defense like Maclin and still juke you with run after catch ability. Of all the receivers here, he's probably a cornerbacks worst nightmare.

At the other extreme, perhaps Robiskie is the best 'pure receiver' from a technique standpoint, but again he can't stretch the defense with homerun speed. I think we are saying the same thing however, just speaking a slightly different language.

 

ALL of these guys have facets of their game to work on to become elite at the next level - and none of them is a 'can't miss' either. Perhaps the most NFL ready is Robiskie, but he's a little was behind the rest when it comes to some of the things you can't teach that can make a WR a stud.

Definitely agree with the bolded statement. As an Illini fan, I've seen Maclin go off two years in a row against the Illini. The route-running and things can be taught and refined, his speed can't. He's got a chance to be really, really good.

 

I also agree that this year's WR group is kind of underwhelming. Crabtree and Maclin are clearly a notch above the rest. I do really like Juaquin Iglesias to become a good one though.

[ROCKET 0]

Good points made so far but until we see where they get drafted it's all speculation at this point. Crabtree will not be the first player taken in 99% of dynasty drafts, that I'm sure of. If Denver, San Diego, Washington, etc. take Moreno or another rb in round 1 I don't see any way Crabtree is taken ahead of that rb. There are at least 5-6 teams who need to groom their heir apparent at rb and those guys will be the consensus top 5 picks with Crabtree sprinkled in between. I have the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty and I wouldn't even consider Crabtree there.

[Kopy 491]

Maybe my term' pure receiver' is misleading. While I don't see him as deficient in route running, hands, or other facets of his game, there are a lot of big possession receivers in this group, but none who can stretch a defense like Maclin and still juke you with run after catch ability. Of all the receivers here, he's probably a cornerbacks worst nightmare.

 

At the other extreme, perhaps Robiskie is the best 'pure receiver' from a technique standpoint, but again he can't stretch the defense with homerun speed. I think we are saying the same thing however, just speaking a slightly different language.

 

ALL of these guys have facets of their game to work on to become elite at the next level - and none of them is a 'can't miss' either. Perhaps the most NFL ready is Robiskie, but he's a little was behind the rest when it comes to some of the things you can't teach that can make a WR a stud.

 

I really like Robiskie. I'll use my "SAFE" term again when I think about him.

I'm just a little gun shy by getting burned by my "SAFE" receiver last year.

I thought Earl Bennett was the safest receiver/ most pro ready kid to start from day 1. And that didn't work out so well.

So I think at the receiver position. I'll put a guy with upside over him this year. Right now, I have him as my 7th ranked receiver. Maybe I might change my mind. Not sure.

[Kopy 491]

Good points made so far but until we see where they get drafted it's all speculation at this point. Crabtree will not be the first player taken in 99% of dynasty drafts, that I'm sure of. If Denver, San Diego, Washington, etc. take Moreno or another rb in round 1 I don't see any way Crabtree is taken ahead of that rb. There are at least 5-6 teams who need to groom their heir apparent at rb and those guys will be the consensus top 5 picks with Crabtree sprinkled in between. I have the #1 pick in a rookie dynasty and I wouldn't even consider Crabtree there.

It depends though on the situation. I have the first overall pick. No second, and a late 3rd.

We start 2 RB'S, 3WR's and a flex. (More than not, that flex would be a WR as this is a PPR scoring league.)

I have decent kids at RB, but am desperate for another stud WR to start.

I do have the pick up for trade, but just like in the NFL, it's hard to make a #1 overall deal to happen.

To me, Michael Crabtree, regardless of the team that drafts him. Looks like my guy, unless a deal can happen.

[enis_44 0]

I absolutely love all this dynasty talk, especially considering the super bowl hasn't even been played yet. Thanks to those who watched the senior bowl and are sharing some reall good insight.

I'll just add 2 cents to the Rb vs Wr thing.

You win in FFB with Rb depth. The chance that one of these Wr's turns into Calvin Johnson is pretty small, and while there doesn't appear to be a clear cut Adrian Peterson out there, the chance that 2-4 of these Rb's turn into Fortes, Slatons, even Kevin Smiths is pretty good. From a dynasty team building prospective, you just can't pass that up. I bet 6 out of the first 7 picks in most dynasty drafts are gonna be Rb again. After the draft, it'll be more obvious, but especially given the success of last year's rookies.

[The Moz 69]

Other than Crabtree , Moreno , Maclin , WElls , and maybe McCoy

 

This years crop is - any year is compared to last year.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Since i play in PPR leagues only, my perspective might be a little skewed in favor of WRs, especially if I believe the talent level is greater to begin with. Still, i believe you win in Fantasy with a well balanced team - quality and depth at both the WR and RB positions.

 

IMO this years WR class is much more solid and deep than the WR class of last year - just the opposite of last year, which was the draft year of the RB. I see VERY LITTLE (if any) real talent separation between my #1 rated WR and and my #5 rated rated WR, and I've looked at all the film available to me and took into accout other opinions I respect from other boards (footballguys, draftguys.com, and the draftcountdown.com forum to name a few).

 

Further, I don't see a great deal of separation between the top tier and my second tier of WRs. To my mind, this is just a very strong WR class.

 

That said, not everyone has weighed in with their opinions yet, we have seen no Combine results, there's been no secret NFL draft that I know of, off-season 'mini-camps and preseason training and games have not been played. So a lot can and will change between now and then.

 

Are RBs really more important in dynasty in non PPR leagues? Perhaps a little. The chance that a RB who is drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft will become an impact NFL RB is roughly around 50%. That means that about half of the 'can't miss' 1st RBs actually wash out. And it drops way down to about 20-25% success rate if the RB is drafted in the 2nd round.

The track record for predicting Stud WRs based on them being drafted in the 1st round is actually worse - about 30% will be studs, 30% marginal NFL WRs and 40% duds. However, If you DO get a stud WR in your dynasty draft, statistically he will last as a stud for your team almost twice as long as that Stud RB you may have drafted. So in my mind, it pretty much evens itself out.

[jocstrap 8]

Last year 0 WR's went in the first round and Desean Jackson is the only rookie who had any type of success this year. That being said, is this years crop of

 

Crabtree

Maclin

Harvin

Heywood-Bey

Nicks

Britt

 

better than lasts year studs of

 

Devin Thomas

Malcolm Kelly

Limas Sweed

Desean Jackson

James Hardy

 

?????

 

I definitely like Crabtree and Harvin to bring something to the table 2009 - - Those are the only 2 I see going in the first round.

 

On a side note, I can't wait to watch the highlight reel on these guys. Should make for some interesting conversation over the next 3 months

[granta_05 3]

Last year 0 WR's went in the first round and Desean Jackson is the only rookie who had any type of success this year. That being said, is this years crop of

 

Crabtree

Maclin

Harvin

Heywood-Bey

Nicks

Britt

 

better than lasts year studs of

 

Devin Thomas

Malcolm Kelly

Limas Sweed

Desean Jackson

James Hardy

 

?????

 

I definitely like Crabtree and Harvin to bring something to the table 2009 - - Those are the only 2 I see going in the first round.

 

On a side note, I can't wait to watch the highlight reel on these guys. Should make for some interesting conversation over the next 3 months

 

Donnie Avery had success in spots this season, and he has a chance to be a pretty good WR in his career.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Last year 0 WR's went in the first round and Desean Jackson is the only rookie who had any type of success this year. That being said, is this years crop of

 

Eddie Royal just called...

[granta_05 3]

Eddie Royal just called...

Good call

[jocstrap 8]

Eddie Royal just called...

 

 

ah yes a nice 42 overall pick for the Broncos - - not even in consideration as one of the studs coming out last year though.

 

 

1st round this year compared to last years cream of the crop is what I was trying to make a comparison too - I guess that failed

 

And Avery focking caught crap the 3 times I put him in my lineup this year. fock that name

[madd futher mucker 36]

ah yes a nice 42 overall pick for the Broncos - - not even in consideration as one of the studs coming out last year though.

1st round this year compared to last years cream of the crop is what I was trying to make a comparison too - I guess that failed

 

And Avery focking caught crap the 3 times I put him in my lineup this year. fock that name

 

Regarding Royal - upper 2nd round is not exactly dogmeat, especially in light of the premier RB class last year. So it is not exactly like the scouts didn't know who Royal was or that he got overlooked in the draft.

 

Also, don't give up on Avery's talent. The whole Rams team sucked; O-Line injuries caused Bulger to have a horrible year, and S Jax injury didn't exactly help their offensive balance. For a good part of the season, Avery was outperforming perenial stud Torry Holt.

 

So even if you are so rash as to judge a guy's career by his Rookie year's performance, by any standard Avery looks like to me like a potential future stud.

 

But since I really didn't understand the point of your original post anyway, I'm not sure i can really agree with or refute it. Granted there were no 1st rounders, but there were still some nice WRs to emerge as potential stars from last years class; but IMO this years class has far more talent and up to 5 COULD go in the 1st round.

[enis_44 0]

However, If you DO get a stud WR in your dynasty draft, statistically he will last as a stud for your team almost twice as long as that Stud RB you may have drafted. So in my mind, it pretty much evens itself out.

 

This is a very good point actually. I might argue the actual number of "twice as much", but "generally longer" is for sure. Thanks for pointing this out. (I'm a Fitz owner, have been loving him for years, and look forward to many more years to come!)

[listen2me 23 1,544]

However, If you DO get a stud WR in your dynasty draft, statistically he will last as a stud for your team almost twice as long as that Stud RB you may have drafted. So in my mind, it pretty much evens itself out.

 

Twice as long is a reach. Even more so when WRs generally take a year or 2 longer to develop into a guy that you want starting.

 

Even with this statement I think it means the turnover at RB is greater, meaning the depth at RB is a bigger need. At anytime a stud could lose a step, or get hurt. Where with WRs you can see it coming more often.

 

Last year for me is an example.

 

I had this for RBs coming into the rookie draft.

 

S. Jackson

E. Graham

T. Jones

W. Dunn

C. Perry

 

With the 7th pick I selected C. Johnson and wasn't thrilled. I never thought he would be such an all around RB. I figured 3rd down and maybe a lot of long runs but very up and down player.

 

Well Jackson went down, Graham went down. Jones was a pleasent suprise, and Chris Johnson, even more so.

 

For the future I do not expect T. Jones to keep up last years numbers, and may just fall flat this coming year. Graham I think is done as far as a starter for my team, and Jackson has gotten injured the past 2 seasons. I now have Chris Johnson who is an automatic start for me.

 

I like the concept of picking the best player, but to me guys like Harvin that have limited fantasy potential in my mind (could be a better real football player) shouldn't be picked over possible starting RBs in the NFL.

 

Seriously how much potential fantasy wise does Harvin have? What is he even? I doubt he will ever be a 80/1200/10 WR, Ever. People compare him to Bush, but he isn't. He is straight line speed without all of the shifty moves. Bush's hands are better. I wouldn't consider drafting a guy liek Harvin over a guy like Beanie Wells who "could" be a very gifted RB in the NFL.

[madd futher mucker 36]

You might not believe this, but last year I had Chris Johnson as my #2 rated RB (behind Jonathon Stewart, but ahead of McFadden and Mendenhall) I drafted him in two of my 3 draft leagues (I waited too long and my son drafted him in front of me in the 3rd - moral: never share secrets with your son). So I can't say I was at all suprised by his success last year.

 

Speaking of Chris Johnson, One guy I'm interested in watching play in the Texas Vs the Nation game is Devin Moore (RB-Wyoming) - Moore should run a legit sub 4.4 40. I haven't seen him play as of yet.

 

Moore has not gotten an invite to the Combine even though he rushed for over 1,300 yards and had over 2,000 total yards this year. He weighed in this week at 5'9" 191#.

 

The report from the 1st day of TX v Nation practice is that Moore showed great feet and sudden cuts. He also has shown good hands as a receiver out of the backfield and acquitted himself well in pass protection as a willing blocker with decent technique.

 

Don't quote me as saying that he is the next Chris Johnson just yet, but he is somewhat intriguing as a RB prospect. Someone to pay attention to if you watch the TX v the Nation game this Saturday.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

Good info.

 

Seriously though, lets talk Harvin. Players like this don't usually pan out as Fantasy Stars. How will he be used? I cannot see him ever turning into a good fantasy starter.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Good info.

 

Seriously though, lets talk Harvin. Players like this don't usually pan out as Fantasy Stars. How will he be used? I cannot see him ever turning into a good fantasy starter.

 

I decided not to hi-jack my own thread by getting into a lengthy discussion on Harvin - you don't like him - fine. But I did start a separate thread so you can get an idea why I'm so high on him. Yes he is a bit of a risk, but now where near the risk I see in Chris Wells.

[granta_05 3]

You might not believe this, but last year I had Chris Johnson as my #2 rated RB (behind Jonathon Stewart, but ahead of McFadden and Mendenhall) I drafted him in two of my 3 draft leagues (I waited too long and my son drafted him in front of me in the 3rd - moral: never share secrets with your son). So I can't say I was at all suprised by his success last year.

 

Speaking of Chris Johnson, One guy I'm interested in watching play in the Texas Vs the Nation game is Devin Moore (RB-Wyoming) - Moore should run a legit sub 4.4 40. I haven't seen him play as of yet.

 

Moore has not gotten an invite to the Combine even though he rushed for over 1,300 yards and had over 2,000 total yards this year. He weighed in this week at 5'9" 191#.

 

The report from the 1st day of TX v Nation practice is that Moore showed great feet and sudden cuts. He also has shown good hands as a receiver out of the backfield and acquitted himself well in pass protection as a willing blocker with decent technique.

 

Don't quote me as saying that he is the next Chris Johnson just yet, but he is somewhat intriguing as a RB prospect. Someone to pay attention to if you watch the TX v the Nation game this Saturday.

I was big on Chris Johnson prior to the season as well, but I was still surprised at his success as a rookie. I saw him play a few times at East Carolina, and it was pretty evident that he was an NFL talent. I was thrilled to grab him after McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, Forte, Smith were all off the board.

 

A RB I really like is Jeremiah Johnson out of Oregon. Not a big back, but I think he has the skills to become a solid RB. He's kind of floating under the radar behind guys like Moreno, Wells, and McCoy, much like Chris Johnson was under the radar last year. He's definitely a guy I'm keeping an eye on. If he gets in the right system, he could have an impact as a rookie, IMO.

[madd futher mucker 36]

A RB I really like is Jeremiah Johnson out of Oregon. Not a big back, but I think he has the skills to become a solid RB. He's kind of floating under the radar behind guys like Moreno, Wells, and McCoy, much like Chris Johnson was under the radar last year. He's definitely a guy I'm keeping an eye on. If he gets in the right system, he could have an impact as a rookie, IMO.

 

The consensus on Jeremiah Johnson (5'9" 198) is that he will go late 3rd to late 4th round (probably early 4th). He had a pretty good Senior Bowl week. He has a nice compact running style, low pad level, and therefore gives a defender a small tackle target. He also shows very nice burst and quickness in his cuts. His receiving ability is under-rated. He also showed very good effort and recognition in the blitz pickup drill in the Senior Bowl practice. I see him as an Earnest Graham type - a NFL back-up who will likely be productive if a starter goes down due to injury, but I can't see NFL scouts expecting that he could carry the load for the long term. And given all the injuries to NFL RBs, he should get his chance to play at some point next year.

 

A guy I think is at least one tier better than J J is NC State's Andre Brown (6'0" 224). Given his Senior Bowl performance, he will likely go early to mid 3rd round, perhaps right after Rashad Jennings. He's a power back with very nimble feet, a very good second gear, and some pretty good receiving skills. His 30+ yard catch and run for a TD was a thing of beauty.

 

The difference between the two is that Andre Brown looks more like a back with some serious potential to grab and hold down a job as a 3 down starter in the NFL. When all is said and done he could easily be in my top 10 - 15 fantasy rookie picks.

[granta_05 3]

The consensus on Jeremiah Johnson (5'9" 198) is that he will go late 3rd to late 4th round (probably early 4th). He had a pretty good Senior Bowl week. He has a nice compact running style, low pad level, and therefore gives a defender a small tackle target. He also shows very nice burst and quickness in his cuts. His receiving ability is under-rated. He also showed very good effort and recognition in the blitz pickup drill in the Senior Bowl practice. I see him as an Earnest Graham type - a NFL back-up who will likely be productive if a starter goes down due to injury, but I can't see NFL scouts expecting that he could carry the load for the long term. And given all the injuries to NFL RBs, he should get his chance to play at some point next year.

 

A guy I think is at least one tier better than J J is NC State's Andre Brown (6'0" 224). Given his Senior Bowl performance, he will likely go early to mid 3rd round, perhaps right after Rashad Jennings. He's a power back with very nimble feet, a very good second gear, and some pretty good receiving skills. His 30+ yard catch and run for a TD was a thing of beauty.

 

The difference between the two is that Andre Brown looks more like a back with some serious potential to grab and hold down a job as a 3 down starter in the NFL. When all is said and done he could easily be in my top 10 - 15 fantasy rookie picks.

I agree that JJ probably won't be a full-time feature back for a team, but I could see him doing pretty well in a RBBC. What do you think of Steve Slaton as a comaprison?

 

I wouldn't mind seeing the Rams draft him as a complement to Steven Jackson.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I agree that JJ probably won't be a full-time feature back for a team, but I could see him doing pretty well in a RBBC. What do you think of Steve Slaton as a comaprison?

 

I wouldn't mind seeing the Rams draft him as a complement to Steven Jackson.

 

Like comparing a Saturn to a Porsche. Steve Slaton has far more talent. Jeremiah Johnson is not of the same caliber. Steve Slaton had J J's speed, explosiveness and open field running abilities times two (ok, not quite literally, but you get the point). If Steve Slaton could have come out after his sophomore year, he would no doubt have gone 1st round. In 2006 he was absolutely a premier college back with over 1700 yards rushing, averaging SEVEN ypc, and over 2100 total yards in 13 games played. He just was not the same back his junior year, barely rushing for over 1000 yards in 12 games and averaging 5 ypc, 2 ypc less than the year before. He also showed more suspect hands, dropping more balls both as a runner and a receiver. Obviously he declared early and skipped his Senior year - a huge mistake moneywise for him.

 

It appears that he played less than 100% healthy for his entire Junior year, and as I said it cost him dearly when he decided to forego his Senior year. Despite the doubts of his down final collegiate year, and coming out in a year of very possibly the strongest RB class ever, he was still drafted late 3rd round. But he holds an unbelievable number of U of West Virginia, Big East, and National records and awards including semi-finalist for Collegiate player of the year in 2006 (Maxwell Award), and placed 4th in the 2006 Heisman Trophy balloting.

 

Obviously, his immense talent manifested itself last year with Houston.

 

If you compare J Johnson's college career with Slaton's, the difference is very apparent. J J is a nice talent, and the good showing he had at the Senior Bowl coupled with a good Combine showing MAY be enough to get him into the late 3rd round - but realistically I think he's a 4th rounder (Slaton was taken late 3rd) but Slayton DROPPED to the late 3rd round based on his disappointing JR year, whereas J J will have to rely on the good Senior Bowl week and have to show very well at the combine to get up to the same draft level that Slaton dropped to. Truthfully he really compares less favorably than, but reminds me a bit more of Houston's other smallish RB Ryan Moats when he came out of college (another 3rd round pick). Moats is now up to 210# and has still not established any type of impact role.

 

Johnson is a nice, quick, slightly undersized back with a good low running style. Good at all aspects, but not an exceptional talent. In other words, IMO he's probably good enough to make an NFL team (likely initially as special teamer and a 3rd RB), but not enough "wow factor" to really have a chance at becoming an elite back at the next level.

[granta_05 3]

Like comparing a Saturn to a Porsche. Steve Slaton has far more talent. Jeremiah Johnson is not of the same caliber. Steve Slaton had J J's speed, explosiveness and open field running abilities times two (ok, not quite literally, but you get the point). If Steve Slaton could have come out after his sophomore year, he would no doubt have gone 1st round. In 2006 he was absolutely a premier college back with over 1700 yards rushing, averaging SEVEN ypc, and over 2100 total yards in 13 games played. He just was not the same back his junior year, barely rushing for over 1000 yards in 12 games and averaging 5 ypc, 2 ypc less than the year before. He also showed more suspect hands, dropping more balls both as a runner and a receiver. Obviously he declared early and skipped his Senior year - a huge mistake moneywise for him.

 

It appears that he played less than 100% healthy for his entire Junior year, and as I said it cost him dearly when he decided to forego his Senior year. Despite the doubts of his down final collegiate year, and coming out in a year of very possibly the strongest RB class ever, he was still drafted late 3rd round. But he holds an unbelievable number of U of West Virginia, Big East, and National records and awards including semi-finalist for Collegiate player of the year in 2006 (Maxwell Award), and placed 4th in the 2006 Heisman Trophy balloting.

 

Obviously, his immense talent manifested itself last year with Houston.

 

If you compare J Johnson's college career with Slaton's, the difference is very apparent. J J is a nice talent, and the good showing he had at the Senior Bowl coupled with a good Combine showing MAY be enough to get him into the late 3rd round - but realistically I think he's a 4th rounder (Slaton was taken late 3rd) but Slayton DROPPED to the late 3rd round based on his disappointing JR year, whereas J J will have to rely on the good Senior Bowl week and have to show very well at the combine to get up to the same draft level that Slaton dropped to. Truthfully he really compares less favorably than, but reminds me a bit more of Houston's other smallish RB Ryan Moats when he came out of college (another 3rd round pick). Moats is now up to 210# and has still not established any type of impact role.

 

Johnson is a nice, quick, slightly undersized back with a good low running style. Good at all aspects, but not an exceptional talent. In other words, IMO he's probably good enough to make an NFL team (likely initially as special teamer and a 3rd RB), but not enough "wow factor" to really have a chance at becoming an elite back at the next level.

I probably should have clarified what I meant. I know Slaton is a better talent. My mind works in weird ways. I think Slaton popped into my head because they are similar backs physically, and will probably be drafted around the same time. I still like JJ, and think he could have an impact as a rookie, if put in the right situation. He won't put up the stats that Slaton did as a rookie, but, at this time last year, not many people thought Slaton would have the impact he did. I guess I am just high on Johnson, for whatever reason. It's probably the name.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I never pretended to be a scout or a 'draftnik', but one guy who is some of both is Scott Wright, owner of Draftcountdown.com.

He just updated his VERY EARLY rankings. I only included offensive skill positions, but included QBs and TEs (Mainly because Mr Wright ranked Matt Stafford #1 and obviously believes Stafford IS a franchise QB). Where he has the players ranked does not necessarily reflect where the players may go in the draft but merely where his personal ranking. It's still early in the scouting process and these rankings are extremely fluid. These rankings also do NOT indicate his estimation of their value for fantasy purposes.

 

FIRST ROUND QUALLITY

1. Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Franchise signal caller with one of the strongest arms in football

2. Chris Wells RB Ohio St. Big (6-1, 237), bruising runner with the ability to be a workhorse

3. Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech Prolific college pass catcher with all the tools except elite speed

4. Mark Sanchez QB USC Only started for one year but is more talented than Matt Leinart

5. Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri A explosive playmaker as a pass catcher, runner and return man

6. Brandon Pettigrew TE Okla St. Timed speed's just average but an excellent all-around tight end

7. Percy Harvin WR Florida Undoubtedly a Top 10 talent but durability issues are a concern

8. Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia Average measurables but fantastic vision, patience and instincts

9. D. Heyward-Bey WR Maryland Not many can match his amazing combination of size and speed.

10. Josh Freeman QB Kansas St. Could move way up due to his size (6-6, 250) and arm strength

11. LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh Compact, productive runner with a burst who hits the hole hard

 

SECOND ROUND QUALITY

12. Kenny Britt WR Rutgers

13. Derrick Williams WR Penn St

14. Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina

15. Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston St

16. Jared Cook TE South Carolina

17. Donald Brown RB Connecticut

18. Chase Coffman TE Missouri

 

THIRD ROUND QUALITY

19. Shonn Greene RB Iowa

20. Juaquin Iglesias WR Oklahoma

21. Travis Beckum TE Wisconsin

22. Brian Robiskie WR Ohio St.

23. Cornelius Ingram TE Florida

24. Nate Davis QB Ball St.

25. James Casey TE RicE

26. James Davis RB Clemson

27. Andre Brown RB North Carolina St

28. Javon Ringer RB Michigan St

 

RANKED IN HIS TOP 90 TO 100

90. Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia

93. Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly

96. Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

98. Brandon Gibson WR Washington St.

99. Jeremiah Johnson RB Oregon

Rashad Jennings RB Liberty (ranked in 'sleepers'- and just outside top 100)

[jdswan922 0]

I never pretended to be a scout or a 'draftnik', but one guy who is some of both is Scott Wright, owner of Draftcountdown.com.

He just updated his VERY EARLY rankings. I only included offensive skill positions, but included QBs and TEs (Mainly because Mr Wright ranked Matt Stafford #1 and obviously believes Stafford IS a franchise QB). Where he has the players ranked does not necessarily reflect where the players may go in the draft but merely where his personal ranking. It's still early in the scouting process and these rankings are extremely fluid. These rankings also do NOT indicate his estimation of their value for fantasy purposes.

 

FIRST ROUND QUALLITY

1. Matthew Stafford QB Georgia Franchise signal caller with one of the strongest arms in football

2. Chris Wells RB Ohio St. Big (6-1, 237), bruising runner with the ability to be a workhorse

3. Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech Prolific college pass catcher with all the tools except elite speed

4. Mark Sanchez QB USC Only started for one year but is more talented than Matt Leinart

5. Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri A explosive playmaker as a pass catcher, runner and return man

6. Brandon Pettigrew TE Okla St. Timed speed's just average but an excellent all-around tight end

7. Percy Harvin WR Florida Undoubtedly a Top 10 talent but durability issues are a concern

8. Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia Average measurables but fantastic vision, patience and instincts

9. D. Heyward-Bey WR Maryland Not many can match his amazing combination of size and speed.

10. Josh Freeman QB Kansas St. Could move way up due to his size (6-6, 250) and arm strength

11. LeSean McCoy RB Pittsburgh Compact, productive runner with a burst who hits the hole hard

 

SECOND ROUND QUALITY

12. Kenny Britt WR Rutgers

13. Derrick Williams WR Penn St

14. Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina

15. Rhett Bomar QB Sam Houston St

16. Jared Cook TE South Carolina

17. Donald Brown RB Connecticut

18. Chase Coffman TE Missouri

 

THIRD ROUND QUALITY

19. Shonn Greene RB Iowa

20. Juaquin Iglesias WR Oklahoma

21. Travis Beckum TE Wisconsin

22. Brian Robiskie WR Ohio St.

23. Cornelius Ingram TE Florida

24. Nate Davis QB Ball St.

25. James Casey TE RicE

26. James Davis RB Clemson

27. Andre Brown RB North Carolina St

28. Javon Ringer RB Michigan St

 

RANKED IN HIS TOP 90 TO 100

90. Mohamed Massaquoi WR Georgia

93. Ramses Barden WR Cal Poly

96. Brandon Tate WR North Carolina

98. Brandon Gibson WR Washington St.

99. Jeremiah Johnson RB Oregon

Rashad Jennings RB Liberty (ranked in 'sleepers'- and just outside top 100)

No Jarrett Dillard? I think he should fall withing that 3rd round range, before Ringer, and I like him more than Robiskie.