My final pre-draft dynasty rookie WR rankings

[madd futher mucker 36]

Last Week, I shared my top 12 RBs. Unlike the RB Class, this WR class is both talented and deep.

 

Regarding the Tier 2 guys: These are the order in which I like 'em - but you could make a case for ranking this tier in just about any order depending on what evaluation criteria you consider most important. While all have NFL stud potential, probably the one with the least upside is Robiskie. However he is very high on my list because I believe he also has the least downside - I believe he is possibly the closest WR to a sure thing in this draft - both his upside and his downside is probably as a consistent top 25 WR2 - a big skilled possession WR.

 

The tier 3 players are probably in their best specific order, but I had trouble ranking Britt ahead of Dillard. These two are very opposite as receivers. Britt has more upside, but a significantly higher bust factor, whereas Dillard is a much more polished receiver, and a better bet not to 'flame out' in the NFL.

 

The tier 4 players are always MUCH more miss than hit, but I like these tier 4 WRs much better than I do the the tier 4 of the RB class as far as the probability of NFL success is concerned. All of the tier 4 WRs have enough upside for the POTENTIAL of becoming starting quality WRs at some point.

 

Again this list WILL NOT reflect where I think these guys will get drafted but rather how I evaluate their chances to be productive for fantasy purposes in a dynasty league. And again, you will probably see some surprises here.

 

Tier 1: Crabtree

Tier 2: Nicks, DHB, Robiskie, Harvin, Maclin, (Mike) Thomas

Tier 3: Britt, Dillard, Tate, Knox, Collie

Tier 4: Guice, Butler, Murphy, Wallace, Simmons, Strouther, Iglesius, Foster

 

The following guys who are on many other lists are guys that I consider 'Fools Gold', and would not consider drafting because of their more significant 'bust' potential: Derrick Williams, Mohammed Massaquoi, and Ramses Barden.

 

Individual WR comments:

1. Michael Crabtree - Much like his counterpart Moreno at RB, Crabtree is exceptional in every facet of WR, orther than lacking top end straight line speed. And, with the possible exception of Robiskie, he may be the safest prospect in this years draft at the 'skill positions' (but with much higher upside). Elite.

2. Hakeem Nicks - Big, with great hands, he runs excellent routes, and is very physical especially after the catch, which is good, because he's not going to run away from any DBs. Very high upside.

3. DHB - Reminds me of Braylon Edwards with world-class speed. Like Braylon, he has decent hands but suffers lapses in concentration - which means he'll catch the tough catches and drop some very easy ones. Extremely high upside.

4. Brian Robiskie - Technical excellence on a 6-3 frame, Robiskie knows every way possible to get separation. His dad is an NFL WR coach and scout. 'Nuf said. a pretty finished product, but still some upside.

5. Percy Harvin - He runs good routes, is extremely explosive, catches the ball well, and he's tough to bring down. There may still be lingering ankle concerns, and he's had a hard time staying healthy. Extremely high upside.

6. Jeremy Maclin - A very raw receiver with pad speed equal to DHB, macklin needs to refine his route running skills. May not contribute right away as a WR, but is an excellent return man. Extremely high upside.

7. Mike Thomas - I'd call him a (Carolina) Steve Smith clone, but he is built even more solidly than Smith. He has excellent 4.35 speed, runs solid routes, and turns into a RB after he catches the ball. Because of his size, Steve Smith wasn't drafted until the third round. If Thomas is drafted after round 3, he could be the steal of the draft. Extremely high upside.

8. Kenny Britt - I like everything about him except how he catches a football. He lets too many balls get into his body. If he can correct this, he can be an NFL stud; if he can't (and this is a hard habit to break), he will be a dud in the NFL. Boom or Bust, but great upside.9. Jarrett Dillard - This is a receiver with very refined technique. He also can get up for balls that some 6'3 guys can't reach because of his great leaping ability. Also may run the best routes in the whole class. Very high upside.

10. Johnny Knox - An extremely talented small school guy (Abilene Christian) who has ball tracking skills that are second to none, and speed to burn. Very high upside.

11. Brandon Tate - Extremely talented; we might be talking about a top 5 or 6 prospect if he hadn't wrecked his ACL. Is expected to be cleared to play by the opening of pre-season. If he comes back 100% watch out! If you have patience for a 3rd year break-out receiver, this guy has extreme speed and very high upside.

12. Austin Collie - Great hands, ball tracking,and body adjustment to the ball with good enough speed. High upside.

13. Dudley Guice - Small school guy (Northwestern Louisiana State) with big time talent but was hampered by injuries. Impressive size, speed and ball skills. An intelligent WR, he has tools to make his mark on the NFL and high upside.

14. Deon Butler - Very productive, polished receiver who runs great routes. Small quick slot receiver for underneath routes, but fast enough and elusive enough in the open field and he already runs great routes. Good upside

15. Louis Murphy - He's big and extremely fast, but raw and very skinny frame. Good upside.

16. Mike Wallace - A vertical threat because of his elite speed. Decent hands. Will he give your fantasy team "60 minutes?" Good upside

17. JaMarko Simmons - He's the best extremely BIG (235 lbs) reciever in the class. He projects as slot receiver with somewhat of a TE body. A tough player with quickness and agility. Much more NFL potential than Ramses Barden. Very good upside, but significant bust potential too.

18. Sammy Strouther - Very polished receiver who lacks elite explosiveness but makes plays and does everything well. Good upside.

19 - 20. Juaquin Iglesius and Brooks Foster - two extremely raw receivers with enough upside to take a chance on. Speculative.

 

Fools Gold:

1. Derrick Williams - how can a guy with so muc athleticism be the 3rd best wide-out on his team? Very little improvement from his Freshman year - what makes people think it will be different in the pros?

2. Mohamed Massaquoi - The only consistent thing about his whole game is how inconsistent he is.

3. Ramses Barden - Everybody loves Raymond; sorry, I mean Ramses. He's big with good hands and decent straight line speed. But he plays extremely weak, doesn't use his size to advantage and is anything but quick. Where's the separation going to come from?

 

Feel free to give any comments or ask any questions.

 

One other comment: While I've watched TONS of highlite video, there is a lot you can't get from watching highlight video alone - particularly on the guys outside of the top two tiers. So I have to acknowledge that much of my thinking is a result of developing a composite on these players from many other sites including Scott Wright's Draft Countdown forum, and particularly the thoughts of three of my heros - the three amigos, Bloom, Lammey, and Waldman at footballguys and draftguys.com.

 

I'll try to put together a draft-impacted top 40 fantasy prospects in the week or so following the draft.

[ShaneFalco 0]

I agree with your high ranking of Robiskie, and I think he's going to be one of the better of the WRs drafted this year

[listen2me 23 1,831]

Glad to see you bump Harvin down a couple in the end.

[cblue 0]

I really like Nicks and Robiskie.

[Gepetto 1,291]

Here's my list.

1. Crabtree

2. Maclin

3. Harvin

4. Britt

 

as for the rest...meh.

[WhiteWonder 2,681]

i feel like DHB will be a bust. He gets alot of hype because of measurables

 

Britt is a sentimental choice for me and I do actually think he can become a star.

 

Crabtree is the can't miss guy but I DO NOT view him as automatically elite. He is not in the same class coming out as Calvin or Fitz.

 

Idk what to make of Maclin.

 

I am big on Hicks and I like Robiskie as well.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here's my list.

1. Crabtree

2. Maclin

3. Harvin

4. Britt

 

as for the rest...meh.

 

What kind of league do you play in?

 

I'm sure you do not play in a deep-rostered dynasty leagues, or you'd know that the "meh" is where the difference between the winners and losers is found.

 

Redraft leagues are far more situation dependent than talent dependent. But if you only play in re-draft leagues, IMO you picked the wrong players - other than Crabtree and Harvin - that I'd expect to make any decent production in 2009.

 

Although he could contribute immediately as a return guy (not much fantasy value there in most leagues) Maclin is far too raw as a receiver. Britt COULD start in the right situation, but many teams - those that have some adequate WR depth - might not use him right away until he learns to consistently hands-catch the ball.

[WhiteWonder 2,681]

What kind of league do you play in?

 

I'm sure you do not play in a deep-rostered dynasty leagues, or you'd know that the "meh" is where the difference between the winners and losers is found.

 

Redraft leagues are far more situation dependent than talent dependent. But if you only play in re-draft leagues, IMO you picked the wrong players - other than Crabtree and Harvin - that I'd expect to make any decent production in 2009.

 

Although he could contribute immediately as a return guy (not much fantasy value there in most leagues) Maclin is far too raw as a receiver. Britt COULD start in the right situation, but many teams - those that have some adequate WR depth - might not use him right away until he learns to consistently hands-catch the ball.

 

Ive been watching more and more highlights of Britt. I watched a decent amount of Rutgers games and saw a few in person and while I agree he is not the most polished WR, he uses his hands fairly often. Not sure what you are seeing.

 

He especially impresses me going over the middle.

[WhiteWonder 2,681]

Lets talk Heyward-Bey

 

Honestly one of the WR's I dont really know a whole lot about coming into this years draft but for the past few months I have read a good deal about him and watched some highlights.

 

He is projected anywhere from 7 to Oakland down to late first round to teams like Baltimore and in some cases out of round 1.

 

I have to say I am really unimpressed by the highlights I have seen.

Here is a small sample: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyjaBWuo4zA...feature=related

 

I mean everything is screens, runs, reverses.... really seems to add to the idea that he is just a track guy. Even some of the very few downfield catches (that they make out to be amazing) are just flat out poor.

around 1:27, easily could have caught that ball in stride but instead he stops, looks for it and leaps to make the grab.

4:30... same deal only this time in the endzone... no need to stop and jump for that ball.

 

i think 5:50 is the only impressive play in this sample.

 

 

so i'm interested to hear from some people who maybe followed DHB more closely in college especially because my Jets may be considering him among other WR's at 17.

[madd futher mucker 36]

WhiteWonder - I watched the same video you did and saw things much differently. Of course it is typical highlight video fare so you never see a dropped pass or bad play (other than his lapse to get caught from behind at the 5 yd line), but here's my commentary on the play sequences:

 

They showed that same play 4 times that you refer to at 1.27. I watched the sequence about 3 times, so 12 times total. I do not believe that ball could have been caught in stride; in fact most WRs lacking his size, speed, and leaping ability would not have caught it, period.

 

At 2.40, he showed good concentration on a terrible pitch (ene-over-end and behind him) without breaking stride on the reverse.

 

At 4.30 - 4.37 again there's no way IMO he would have caught the ball in the endzone without leaping and catching the ball at its highest point. I say it was a great catch.

 

At 5.53, he again high-pointed the ball with an excellent leap in the endzone for a TD.

 

6.19 - excellent ball tracking and concentration on the highlight-reel juggling catch.

 

7.19 - showed nice hands and concentration on the ball thrown behind him, took advantage of his blockers and showed his great acceleration to take the long play to the house.

 

What I didn't like:

 

The play at 4.54 he slowed down noticeably the last 10-15 yards allowing the defender to catch up and tackle him out of bounds at the 5 yard line. There's no way he doesn't score if he maintains his speed. It was a terrible finish to the play. I think he thought he could walk into the endzone on the play. I noticed he did the same thing on the TD play at 7.19-7.46. He again slowed down the last 15 yards. Very bad habit, but easy to coach him out of it.

 

Summary:

DHB is a little raw, hasn't learned all the nuances of running routes, and occasionally has concentration lapses (which you'll never see on highlight video.) But he showed a great combination of size, speed, leaping ability, ball tracking, and concentration (which is generally acknowledged to be one of his weak spots), and YAC running ability in this video.

 

There's room for improvement in his game, but the raw skills are there. There is nothing about DHB that suggests he cannot be a stud at the next level. In fact, with his raw talent, he probably is the highest 'upside' guy in the WR class.

[Yippie Skippy 0]

Hey Madd, I really enjoy your opinions and I was wondering if you plan to do a pre-dynasty rookie TE rankings??

[WhiteWonder 2,681]

WhiteWonder - I watched the same video you did and saw things much differently. Of course it is typical highlight video fare so you never see a dropped pass or bad play (other than his lapse to get caught from behind at the 5 yd line), but here's my commentary on the play sequences:

 

They showed that same play 4 times that you refer to at 1.27. I watched the sequence about 3 times, so 12 times total. I do not believe that ball could have been caught in stride; in fact most WRs lacking his size, speed, and leaping ability would not have caught it, period.

 

At 2.40, he showed good concentration on a terrible pitch (ene-over-end and behind him) without breaking stride on the reverse.

 

At 4.30 - 4.37 again there's no way IMO he would have caught the ball in the endzone without leaping and catching the ball at its highest point. I say it was a great catch.

 

At 5.53, he again high-pointed the ball with an excellent leap in the endzone for a TD.

 

6.19 - excellent ball tracking and concentration on the highlight-reel juggling catch.

 

7.19 - showed nice hands and concentration on the ball thrown behind him, took advantage of his blockers and showed his great acceleration to take the long play to the house.

 

What I didn't like:

 

The play at 4.54 he slowed down noticeably the last 10-15 yards allowing the defender to catch up and tackle him out of bounds at the 5 yard line. There's no way he doesn't score if he maintains his speed. It was a terrible finish to the play. I think he thought he could walk into the endzone on the play. I noticed he did the same thing on the TD play at 7.19-7.46. He again slowed down the last 15 yards. Very bad habit, but easy to coach him out of it.

 

Summary:

DHB is a little raw, hasn't learned all the nuances of running routes, and occasionally has concentration lapses (which you'll never see on highlight video.) But he showed a great combination of size, speed, leaping ability, ball tracking, and concentration (which is generally acknowledged to be one of his weak spots), and YAC running ability in this video.

 

There's room for improvement in his game, but the raw skills are there. There is nothing about DHB that suggests he cannot be a stud at the next level. In fact, with his raw talent, he probably is the highest 'upside' guy in the WR class.

 

i still say he could have caught those 2 in stride... especially the one around 1:27... the simple fact that he stops, turns, and leaps for it tells me he could have kept running and caught it over his shoulder. It's not like he turns and leaps immediately, he actually stops turns and waits to leap for it. But it seems like he actually prefers the jump ball, hence the stop and leap on the plays i mentioned.

 

I guess i just don't fall for the plays that could have been simple nice catches, that get turnd into "highlight reel" type plays because he ran a poor route.

 

I also realize its a highlight package but 70% of it was runs, reverses and screens. Which kind of tells me all DHB is right now is dangerous with the ball in his hands, not exactly a good route runner and pass catcher.

[the_risen_demon 0]

I also realize its a highlight package but 70% of it was runs, reverses and screens. Which kind of tells me all DHB is right now is dangerous with the ball in his hands, not exactly a good route runner and pass catcher.

 

I'll agree that a run or screen pass is useless in evaluating a wide receiver (as sweeps are pretty much useless in evaluating a running back), but I would not downgrade a player because of them. Simply disregard them and move onto the next play. You've made it clear that you're still not a fan of DHB even considering only the meaningful plays in the highlight reel, and that's fine. I tend to agree with the side that says the catches looked difficult because they were poorly thrown balls. Either way, I've heard different posters downgrade a player based on meaningless plays, and I think that's a mistake.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I also realize its a highlight package but 70% of it was runs, reverses and screens. Which kind of tells me all DHB is right now is dangerous with the ball in his hands, not exactly a good route runner and pass catcher.

 

Let's agree to disagree as to whether he made an easy catch look difficult at 1.27. But I think the leaping grab in the endzone was a thing of beauty, and is definitely what I want to see a WR do in the endzone - go up and snag the ball at its highest point.

 

I've already said that DHB is not yet a polished route runner, but that definitely is something he can learn if he applies himself. When you have his combination of size and speed, unless you have an excellent WR coach in college, you can get by with making a simple upper body juke (something he doesn't do enough of) and turning everything into kind of a fly pattern. Regarding his hands, I have no doubts - DHB is a natural hands catcher.

 

I don't agree at all with the rison demon's statement that runs, reverses and screens are useless when evaluating WRs. Yards after catch (YAC) potential is really important in evaluating WRs, and that ability can readily be projected based on running plays. And I especially liked his concentration on taking that horrible pitch in stride on the reverse, and then cutting the play back accross the field. The video also shows in numerous instances that DHB can be thrown off-balance and goes down if a defender hits him from the side, but he IS hard to bring down, and he gets maximum yardage when he is tackled head on, so the evidence is there that he will generally be a strong YAC receiver.

 

I really see him as an even faster Braylon Edwards, and the sky is the limit in his game if he has the work ethic.

 

(I didn't foget your comments on Britt, and I'll address those specifically after I go back and look at my notes - again, you won't see much of him dropping or fighting the ball on any highlight film).

[WhiteWonder 2,681]

Let's agree to disagree as to whether he made an easy catch look difficult at 1.27. But I think the leaping grab in the endzone was a thing of beauty, and is definitely what I want to see a WR do in the endzone - go up and snag the ball at its highest point.

 

I've already said that DHB is not yet a polished route runner, but that definitely is something he can learn if he applies himself. When you have his combination of size and speed, unless you have an excellent WR coach in college, you can get by with making a simple upper body juke (something he doesn't do enough of) and turning everything into kind of a fly pattern. Regarding his hands, I have no doubts - DHB is a natural hands catcher.

 

I don't agree at all with the rison demon's statement that runs, reverses and screens are useless when evaluating WRs. Yards after catch (YAC) potential is really important in evaluating WRs, and that ability can readily be projected based on running plays. And I especially liked his concentration on taking that horrible pitch in stride on the reverse, and then cutting the play back accross the field. The video also shows in numerous instances that DHB can be thrown off-balance and goes down if a defender hits him from the side, but he IS hard to bring down, and he gets maximum yardage when he is tackled head on, so the evidence is there that he will generally be a strong YAC receiver.

 

I really see him as an even faster Braylon Edwards, and the sky is the limit in his game if he has the work ethic.

 

(I didn't foget your comments on Britt, and I'll address those specifically after I go back and look at my notes - again, you won't see much of him dropping or fighting the ball on any highlight film).

 

there was one very nice leaping endzone grab... but there was one that was very similar to 1:27 where he again stopped to look for the ball and leap for it. But again its just a small sampling.

 

And to Risen Demon, im not downgrading him because of the runs screens and reverses, it is nice to see what a guy can do with the ball in his hands. But its bringing up questions to me. When you see 70% of a highlight package is those kind of gimmick plays you start to wonder if Maryland realized he was electric with the ball in his hands but not the best WR (route running and catching).. Typically when that is the case, you try to get the ball in a players hands as soon as possible to maximize what he is capable of but minimize mistakes. You see that alot with "track guys".

 

I personally don't see much of Braylon Edwards in DHB at all and im speaking of the Edwards coming out of college not the guy with the dropsies last year.

 

 

regarding Britt - he dropped some balls yeah, I was talking more about your comments about him body catching... I noticed some of it in my time wathcing him play but not nearly as much as your claiming will hinder him in the NFL. (and i did see ALOT of Britt during his career)

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here's another YouTube video on DHB that maybe shows more of what you want to see: catching the ball in stride, effective use of the sideline and back of the endzone - and speed.

 

(the link reroutes you so you'll have to got to youtube.com and search for Darious Heyward-Bey) The video is 2.19 minutes long (but skips all the BS so there's quite a few plays). It is about the 10th one down the list.

 

 

 

Now, regarding Britt - he just does not like to extend his arms away from his body toward the ball to make a catch, preferring to let the ball come all the way into his body. The problem with this technique is that he will drop the ball quite often in the NFL when he is hit hard at the same time the ball is trapped into his body. He could get away with this in college with only a few drops. WRs who have this habit in the NFL will have a higher number of drops than those who don't allow the ball to come all the way in. And this is a hard habit to break when it is done so often it becomes his preferred catching technique.

 

Britt really only hand-catches the ball when he has to reach for it. If you were to watch any complete game plays of his in slow motion, you would notice it easily, but even on highlight video this body-catching was frequently evident. In one complete game, I counted at least 5 times - more than half his touches - that he trapped the ball against his chest or stomach.

 

I'm not saying Kenny has stone hands - it's just poor technique - but his technique is enough to grade him down a bit for fantasy purposes in this very talented draft class. I do think he will probably go off the board in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (maybe even 1st round) because of his size and strength (and his blocking ability is among the best in this class - which helps his draft stock). But for fantasy purposes, I can't rank him higher than 8th in the class.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I didn't get any feedback when I added comments for WRs 11-20. I chose this group because I don't think they are going to be just a bunch of career NFL back-ups you tyoically see for the most part from the middle rounds of the draft . By and large, I think they'll either be starters or they won't be there at all. I believe that particularly WRs 11 through 18 have more than enough talent to be solid starters or even be studs in the NFL. All of these guys have very high upsides. Even Iglesius and Foster have the potential to be an NFL starter.

 

Tate had a very similar game and talent level to Jeremy Maclin before Tate was hurt, and even if you have to wait on him a year or two, his tremendously high upside may make him well worth the wait. And I really like the ultra-talented small school guys, Johnny Knox and Dudley Guice, who proved they had 'it' at Texas v the Nation. I loved Deon Butler's route-running and record-breaking productivity at Penn State, so to rank him behind these guys really says something. And the raw material is there with JaMarko Simmons. Even though he is a bit of a project, he could be come the next Steling Sharpe as a slot receiver. It all depends on his weight control and his dedication.