25% Mark - Draft Trends so Far

[Jetdoc 20]

Way too early to analyze teams, but we all know that the 1st three rounds of the draft really shape the rest of your draft. Here's some quick and dirty analysis after the first three rounds:

 

1. 17 RB's are gone, compared to 19 non-RB's. This is actually pretty low compared to previous years, where I would guess more than 2/3's of the players taken in the 1st 3 rounds were running backs.

 

2. Only 4 teams had both of their starting RB's filled out, and those teams were near the ends of the serpentine draft (i.e. 1st/3rd and 11th/12th). This ranged from 50% to 75% in previous mocks.

 

3. 10 RB's were taken in the 1st round, while 9 WR/TE's were taken in the 3rd round. The first round doesn't surprise me since it is normally RB heavy, but the dominance of the wideout in the 3rd round is very shocking. It must be due to the realization that the WR pool is unusually shallow this year compared to previous years.

 

Very interesting.

[Ace08 11]

Hate to sound so cliche but fantasy football as we all knew it for years has changed. The specialization of roles (running back) has really changed the old "stud RB" theory and in my opinion made it virtually obsolete unless you can get really good value or are positioned on one of the ends 1/2 or 11/12.

 

PPR leagues accentuate these facts even more....for the last 2 years in my real life money drafts I've done the unthinkable...I went WR/WR with my first 2 picks. In both years...I won those leagues. It just seems to me that the "bust factor" on the "consensus" RB's goes up every year. Look back at last year's preseason "consensus" top 10, top 15, or top 20. How many guys performed within 3-4 spots of their ADP?

 

At this point I'm a big believer in taking 1 RB early and then taking several in the mid to late rounds, all of which have favorable situations and upside. It's an art more than a science but I used this last year to take the likes of Forte, Chris Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew's of the world relatively late. Couple that with outstanding early WR's and you've got the receipe for a high scoring consistent team...which in fantasy is all you can ask for since there are so many "luck" factors.

 

To each their own and there's definitely more than one way to skin a cat...but those are my thoughts on fantasy football for the current year and in the near future. I'm extremely interested to see what the effects of the wilcat formation (assuming it continues to spread like wildfire among teams) adds to the FF world. Are the days of a pure "utility" slot that far off from becoming a mainstream, default lineup option?

[remote controller 143]

Only 3 picks so far, but the fact that I don't own up to 3 backs by now is a change. The fact that Fumble owns his Stud Back, Stud QB, and Stud WR tells me that the planets are still aligned properly!

[Da Bomb 0]

im not sure what being by the turn has to do with picking RBs or not. either you think they have value and go for the studs or you dont. no matter what slot i had in the draft, i guarantee id still have 2 RBs already right now.

[Vikings4ever 550]

Way too early to analyze teams, but we all know that the 1st three rounds of the draft really shape the rest of your draft. Here's some quick and dirty analysis after the first three rounds:

 

1. 17 RB's are gone, compared to 19 non-RB's. This is actually pretty low compared to previous years, where I would guess more than 2/3's of the players taken in the 1st 3 rounds were running backs.

 

2. Only 4 teams had both of their starting RB's filled out, and those teams were near the ends of the serpentine draft (i.e. 1st/3rd and 11th/12th). This ranged from 50% to 75% in previous mocks.

 

3. 10 RB's were taken in the 1st round, while 9 WR/TE's were taken in the 3rd round. The first round doesn't surprise me since it is normally RB heavy, but the dominance of the wideout in the 3rd round is very shocking. It must be due to the realization that the WR pool is unusually shallow this year compared to previous years.

 

Very interesting.

 

1. Last year, 20 RBs were gone in the first 3 rounds. A little less this year, but not a shocking amount.

 

2. Last year, it was 8 of the teams had 2 RBs in the first 3 rounds. This year, there were 5 (you missed fumble).

 

3. Last year, it was also 10 RBs in the first, 6 WRs in the third. I think it's less the depth of WR talent and more it's the depth of RB talent. Last year, there were 5 RBs taken in the 3rd round. I just don't see a whole lot of talent there this year, other than Grant and Kevin Smith. At this point, we've got guys who are in guaranteed RBBC situations, likely RBBC situations, and last year's disappointments.

[Da Bomb 0]

theres a couple RBs im surprised to still see there. i would have no problem at all skipping a 1st round RB. there are a bunch of guys in the 2nd, 3rd, and apparently 4th that id be perfectly comfortable starting. if i had a late-ish 1st round pick, at least by the looks of things here, id be pretty happy taking WR-WR and going ahead with RBs on the next two picks.