Mid-Round RB Targets

[karmarooster 0]

I'm taking a serious look at these guys because I think all should be solid contributors as RB3/Flex plays. Assume PPR scoring.

 

ADP from Mock Draft Central and Fantasy Football Calculator, likely to continue climbing thru August:

1. Felix - 68 - 76 overall, 6.08 - 7.04
   
2. Rice - 73 - 75 overall, 7.01 - 7.03
   
3. Brown - 79 - 82 overall, 7.07 - 7.10
   

I'll post my thoughts later.

[Cuda1337 1]

I voted Brown because Felix is a keeper in my league. That said, I think Felix will probably have a very solid year and is the safe pick, but Brown has the higher ceiling.

[dirtywhiteboy01 0]

Ray Rice will have the most fantasy points at the end of this year.

[FeelingMN 273]

Any of the three make for a very good RB3, but I went with Felix because he has the ability to bust one any time he touches the ball.

 

If McGahee were out of the picture, I would lean Rice. But right now, it's too hard to anticipate how the carries will be distributed in BAL. If it's anything like last year, I'll pass altogether.

 

Brown could be very good in the Indy offense, but as of yet he doesn't have a clearly defined role. How will he be used in the redzone?

[Phurfur 70]

I would go with F. Jones because I believe he has the most upside. My problem is that I am usually choosing between Felix and L. White.

[yostevo 0]

Ray Rice will have the most fantasy points at the end of this year.

He certainly could but I have zero evidence to support that right now. He hasn't shown me enough and there's too much competition for carries. McGahee and McClain are not going away.

 

From what I've seen on film, Brown is an exceptional between the tackles guy. Great vision and burst. Something Addai was sorely missing last year. Even if Addai starts the majority of the year, I see a 55-45 ratio on the carries and that will give Brown the advantage over these three.

[Ray_T 743]

I'm taking a serious look at these guys because I think all should be solid contributors as RB3/Flex plays. Assume PPR scoring.

 

ADP from Mock Draft Central and Fantasy Football Calculator, likely to continue climbing thru August:

1. Felix - 68 - 76 overall, 6.08 - 7.04
   
2. Rice - 73 - 75 overall, 7.01 - 7.03
   
3. Brown - 79 - 82 overall, 7.07 - 7.10
   

I'll post my thoughts later.

 

I like them all.

 

Rice is the best of these at the moment, but Brown could well be a starter by mid season.

 

in my auction keeper league draft I'm shooting for Rice and hoping he can replace LT as my keeper next year.

 

in my other draft, I will likely draft 2 known commodoties(ie. ADP, Gore, Slaton) and then at least one of the above players(2 if I can) with the hope that they may become starters at some point during the year.

[JT 137]

Rutgers alum. Huge Rice fan. Lifelong dallas hater.

 

But the answer is Jones.

 

McClain will take all the short ydg and goalline work. Harbaugh has already shown a willingness to go with the hot hand and play multiple backs. McGahee will get his share of the pie as well. Rice is going to have a long, solid NFL career. But he won't be the choice in this comparison for another year, when some of the other guys are gone.

 

Jones is a special talent. Had he landed on any other team out of college...ANY other team...I'd have reached to take him last year. I simply don't draft players from that team. His ability to return kicks is a big factor. I also think you'll seer them utilize him between the 20's as they tried with J. Jones. Difference is, with his speed, he'll convert some of those opportunities right to the house.

 

Brown? Who knows? At season's end, maybe. But for the majority of the year, his production won't match either of the other two. Clearly behind Addai, and pass blocking for Manning is imperative. He won't be allowed to make more than one mistake.

[madd futher mucker 36]

1. Rice

2. D Brown

3. Jones

 

just my 2 cents.

[Larry David 20]

The love affair with Rice is amazing on this board. Here's my only problem with him. Are Joe Flacco, Derek Mason and Mark Clayton going to stike fear in the hearts of defenses? Probably not. So you can tell me all about how Rice is having a great camp, and how he bulked up and how strong the O-line is but the bottom line is that he's going to be facing a lot of eight man fronts and he's going to have to be superman to put up good numbers against that.

[karmarooster 0]

The love affair with Rice is amazing on this board. Here's my only problem with him. Are Joe Flacco, Derek Mason and Mark Clayton going to stike fear in the hearts of defenses? Probably not. So you can tell me all about how Rice is having a great camp, and how he bulked up and how strong the O-line is but the bottom line is that he's going to be facing a lot of eight man fronts and he's going to have to be superman to put up good numbers against that.

True to form, Larry David. so who ya got?

[karmarooster 0]

I didn't want to influence the poll so I said nothing in the OP... but the results are mostly what I expected... 14-6-3 for Rice-Brown-Felix. however I was expecting more love for Felix than for Brown, however. Here are my thoughts:

 

First, Ray Rice. Why all the love for him? Because the Ravens simply run the ball, and that will not change. Flacco should be somewhat improved, but this team will keep the same game plan and that's playing defense and running the ball. A slight improvement from Flacco will be a positive, not a negative. Not to mention Cam Cameron, who gets the most out of his RBs (see: LT 2002-2006, Ronnie Brown 2007). Check out McClain, McGahee, and Rice combined last year:

• 509 rushes, 2027 yards, 17 TDs
  
• 76 receptions, 569 yards, 1 TD
  
• 443 fantasy points
  

All signs point to an increase for Rice, and it's fairly easy to see this coming. He's their best runner: last year his YPC was 4.2 compared to 3.9 for McClain and McGahee, and his YPR was 8.3 compared to 7.2 and 6.3. The Ravens lost FB Lorenzo Neal to the Raiders, so McClain will have to play FB. When McClain is at RB, they will have to go with a Jumbo package... that will only be effective for 3rd-and-1, 4th-and-1, and Goal Line (inside the 5). I don't think they will use McClain on something like 3rd-and-5 or even 3rd-and-3... and they won't use McClain in the Red Zone except inside the 5.

 

McGahee had not one but two lower leg surgeries this offseason... knee and ankle I think. Reports from camp suggest that he is looking good, but I just don't see it. He will play second fiddle... he would've already been cut if his contract didn't cause so much of a cap hit. And don't forget, he will be banged up and miss some time. Count on it.

 

Give Rice half of those 500 carries at his 4.2 YPC... looking at 250 for 1050 yards. He's shown that he's a talented reciever as he led the team in receptions last year with 33. 40 receptions at 8.5 YPR for 340 yards. I don't think his TDs will be spectacular, but 6 rushing and 2 receiving is reasonable. Almost 1400 total yards, 40 receptions, 8 TDs => 228 points. He's only 5'8'' but bulked up to about 215... plenty big to carry the load. Not to mention he was a workhorse at Rutgers. He's not a scatback.

 

For Felix Jones, I see him as being a more useful player in real life football than for Fantasy. He will return punts, and that's not a benefit for fantasy because it will limit his offensive touches. In Rizzio's excellent Marion Barber thread, I posted this from rotoworld august 4th:

Cowboys KR/RB Felix Jones has reportedly wowed early in training camp with his "electrifying quickness."

We saw this in preseason and six games last year. Jones' toe injury is no longer an issue, and he could be as effective as any change-of-pace back in the league. Expect around 140 offensive touches and lots of return yards.

140 touches is about right because he will return punts and kickoffs, that's another 50+ touches. So you're looking at similar but better numbers to a player like Leon Washington or Jerious Norwood.... I don't think any more offensive touches will be going his way because Choice and Barber both deserve a large number of carries, and Barber is an excellent 3rd-down-RB because he's one of the best blocking RBs in the NFL. Even with optimistic projections of 5.5 yards per carry and 10 yards per receptions.... you're looking at 550 yards rushing 400 yards receiving. About 1000 total yards, 40 receptions, and 8-10 total TDs => 188-200 fantasy points.

 

Projections for Donald Brown are much harder to estimate. So what I did was look at the last 3 years of Colts RB stats - Addai and Rhodes in 2006, Addai and Keith in 2007, and Addai and Rhodes in 2008. Here are their combined numbers for the 3 year average:

• 367 rushes, 1470 yards
  
• 67 receptions, 495 yards
  
• 16 TDs
  
• 360 fantasy points
  

Addai had 58% of the rushes in those 3 years, but I'm tempted to give Brown a 50/50 share of the work. However I figure Addai will see a bit more action because of his pass-blocking which is very important since the colts never use a FB and TEs are important receivers. plus DBrown is way more talented than Rhodes and Keith... so call it 55/45. That gives Brown a stat-line of: 165 rushes, 661 yards, 30 receptions, 222 yards, and 7 TDs => 160 points. Still, I think this may be too low. Addai could (will) get hurt, or Brown could (will) prove to be a more effective runner. I think Brown will be a bit of feast-or-famine for fantasy owners, in that he will probably start off the season slow, but could become a monster RB2 or even RB1 down the stretch. As such I don't know how useful projections can be for Brown.

 

Before/during/after the NFL draft, I had the impression that Brown was a high-character, highly-motivated, intelligent, hard-working RB with average skills. However i think i had the wrong impression because lately i've read this guy is MORE athletically gifted than Addai at basically everything... running between the tackles, goal-line, catching the ball, and speed. Any homers out there know much about this?

 

I'm just looking for some dissenting opinions. If you have a different idea about any of these guys, please post why you disagree and offer some alternative projections.

[Larry David 20]

True to form, Larry David. so who ya got?

Out of these three I voted for Brown, but the truth is (despite my anti-Rice) stance I might pull the trigger on Rice if it came down to it. My argument against Rice isn't in the context of this poll, but just this board in general. Rice isn't horrible by any stretch, I just think he's overvalued around here. The Rice love and the "Turner is going to suck because he had too many carries last year" sentiment is contagious.

[karmarooster 0]

Out of these three I voted for Brown, but the truth is (despite my anti-Rice) stance I might pull the trigger on Rice if it came down to it. My argument against Rice isn't in the context of this poll, but just this board in general. Rice isn't horrible by any stretch, I just think he's overvalued around here. The Rice love and the "Turner is going to suck because he had too many carries last year" sentiment is contagious.

i suffer from both these afflictions.

[karmarooster 0]

Bueller?

[Franknbeans 46]

Out of these three I voted for Brown, but the truth is (despite my anti-Rice) stance I might pull the trigger on Rice if it came down to it. My argument against Rice isn't in the context of this poll, but just this board in general. Rice isn't horrible by any stretch, I just think he's overvalued around here. The Rice love and the "Turner is going to suck because he had too many carries last year" sentiment is contagious.

 

Turner will suck for where he's being drafted. In fact, the whole Falcons team will suck this year.