Would DeAngelo Williams be #1 overall without RBBC?

[wild_and_crazy_guy 5]

Last year DeAngelo Williams scored 20 TDs while splitting carries 60/40 with Jonathan Stewart. It seems that ONLY thing that kept Williams from becoming a fantasy football monster, and the clear #1 pick, was the RBBC situation. It now seems that Stewart is still having trouble with his heel (or foot?), and can't seem to finish a practice. If Stewart's injury lingeres on, and he misses significant time, would DeAngelo become the #1 pick?

[listen2me 23 1,925]

Last year DeAngelo Williams scored 20 TDs while splitting carries 60/40 with Jonathan Stewart. It seems that ONLY thing that kept Williams from becoming a fantasy football monster, and the clear #1 pick, was the RBBC situation. It now seems that Stewart is still having trouble with his heel (or foot?), and can't seem to finish a practice. If Stewart's injury lingeres on, and he misses significant time, would DeAngelo become the #1 pick?

 

no.

[DeaLerZ 0]

No simply because.. you can't base the #1 pick on one year...

 

another major factor is that he doesn't get a lot of receptions... and probably will get somewhere in the 10-14td range.. but i just can't see that repeated kind of production.... but who knows.. i could be completely wrong... he did break free quite a bit... and quite a bit implies that they weren't flukes when he got all those 15-30yd td's... but does that make him #1 ? i don't think you can say that.. unless he has a repeat performance.. than next year i would say most definitely if Stuart is out of the picture...

[We Tigers 71]

Deangelo's 273 carries last year were the most for a Carolina RB since Stephen Davis. Maybe that suggests a recognition of his talent over previous backs, but I think Fox would just plug in another back to pick up most of Stewart's carries. They're the kind of team that gets the rookies on the field or calls Edgerrin James midseason if one of their guys goes down.

[HoleFiller 0]

No simply because.. you can't base the #1 pick on one year...

 

But you can base the number 2 pick on it?

 

FWIW the guy averaged solid numbers his first two years, finally go the lions share of the carries and performed exceptionally.

 

He also holds the NCAA record for most career all-purpose yards, he is no bum.

[dreadlocks34 0]

Carolina's schedule is too brutal to move him up even without Stewart.

[DeaLerZ 0]

But you can base the number 2 pick on it?

 

FWIW the guy averaged solid numbers his first two years, finally go the lions share of the carries and performed exceptionally.

 

He also holds the NCAA record for most career all-purpose yards, he is no bum.

 

hah who said anything about the #2??? and no i don't think you can base the #2 pick on it either... that is why i didn't draft any any of the one year wonders with the 5th pick in my draft...

[Belushi 9]

Carolina's schedule is too brutal to move him up even without Stewart.

 

Remember what they did to the Giants vaunted defence last year? Ran through them like they weren't even there. This team will run plenty, and they've got Smith to keep the D's honest. I'm not too worried about the Carolina schedule, and I think Williams is being undervalued in most drafts. Last year could have been a career year, but they're returing the same offensive line, and Stewart is already injured. I see the same split as last year.

 

Remember that Williams didn't get going until the 2nd half of last year. If he can keep up that pace for a whole seaon - #1 back.

[Gladiators 2,026]

hah who said anything about the #2??? and no i don't think you can base the #2 pick on it either... that is why i didn't draft any any of the one year wonders with the 5th pick in my draft...

 

I totally disagree...AP was the concensus #2 pick last year after only 1 season in the league. Most people had S Jax as a top 5 pick the last 2 years and this year after having only done it 1 year (2006). I disagree with taking S Jax because of his injuries, but take a look at the (arguably) top 10 backs:

 

1) AP

2) MJD (never carried the full load before)

3) Turner (1 year as starter)

4) Forte (1 year)

5) S Jax (1 year performing as a top RB)

6) LT (considered too old by many)

7) C Johnson (1 year)

8) Slaton ( 1 year)

9) D Will (1 year)

10) Gore

 

So, how would you draft from the 2, 3, or 4 spot? Take LT because he's done it for many years? Many argue that he's getting too old now. I don't buy it, but many are down on him.

[Ray_T 766]

without stewart I'd still rank ADP ahead of him, and maybe MJD as well.

[redtodd 7]

Without Stewart I would have him at least as the #2 pick, but maybe #1.

[DeaLerZ 0]

I totally disagree...AP was the concensus #2 pick last year after only 1 season in the league. Most people had S Jax as a top 5 pick the last 2 years and this year after having only done it 1 year (2006). I disagree with taking S Jax because of his injuries, but take a look at the (arguably) top 10 backs:

 

1) AP

2) MJD (never carried the full load before)

3) Turner (1 year as starter)

4) Forte (1 year)

5) S Jax (1 year performing as a top RB)

6) LT (considered too old by many)

7) C Johnson (1 year)

8) Slaton ( 1 year)

9) D Will (1 year)

10) Gore

 

So, how would you draft from the 2, 3, or 4 spot? Take LT because he's done it for many years? Many argue that he's getting too old now. I don't buy it, but many are down on him.

 

i mean people can do whatever they want in drafts.. i don't give two craps what the experts think... i am not saying i wouldn't take a one year wonder ever.. i am talking about this year... at #1 and #2... and i didn't take a one year wonder this year.. because i think a lot of the rookies from last year are being over valued to some degree... if any of the one year wonders stand out from last year.. i would say its Turner(things have improved), DeAngelo Williams(nothing has changed), and Forte (With Cutler), but even with him i wouldn't take him that high because i am not sold on the bears offense..

 

for picks #1 and #2 .. i would be choosing between Adrian Peterson, MJD, LT, and DeAngelo Williams

 

for picks #3 and #4.. i would be choosing between LT, MJD, DeAngelo Williams, and Turner

 

it doesn't matter what the consensus is... the consensus is always wrong...

 

fantasy football is about consistency and consistency comes from the type of system the RB is in, how well their offense is, how often they have been injured in their careers, how often they have come close to the rushing title, how often they get 100yds a game in a season, how many times in their career they have scored 15+tds.... when i pick at those top two picks.. i look for someone that i am almost certain will get similar numbers barring injuries... sure you can take a gamble on a 1 year wonder up there.. but unless i have watched the guy and feel like he has a lot check marks next to this factors up above.. than no i am not going to pick a one year wonder

 

but to make it clear... i never said i wouldn't ever take a one year wonder with the #2 pick.. i thought we were talking about 2009...

 

for example, this year was a very difficult draft to try and figure out what RB will end up at the top or even near it... so i took a little bit of a gamble with LT considering last years injury prone season.. but i targeted him because i don't think he is done by any means, and the Chargers have a very potent offense... LT still was the #5 rb in ppr format with all of his injuries... he still pulled out 1110yds rushing 11 tds, and 50 rec 426 yardds, and a td.. which shows that he can still be very productive in a injury plagued season because the Chargers have a excellent offense... and he has the potential even though its not like likely to hit over 20tds, and i think he has a lot to prove this year.. considering the chargers almost cut him, and all the nay sayers say he is over the hill at 30... i like RB's that have a chip on their shoulder on great offenses.. and than i just like LT... i think he is a true hall of famer and fun to watch... so thats why i chose him at #5.. and probably would of chosen him sooner in the draft...so in my eyes i got a bargain, because i pulled Brady late in the 2nd round... which of course he has the same potential as LT to be at the top ....

 

and than half way through the draft i realized i had drafted a lot of those players... Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis, Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Torry Holt, Kellen Winslow, San Diego Defense, and even Michael Vick... apparently i like players that have been there before and are in situations where they can do it again... maybe thats my MO haha.. a lot of people like up and coming players.. so they can say i took Turner cause i KNEW he would explode last year... this year i just ended up taking a lot of players that had questionable years last year because they fell to me and people tend to have a short memory about certain players, and still have the potential to explode this year... who knows what will happen... but if they do explode they i can say.. I KNEW HE WASN"T DONE DOMINATING.... haha... oh well thats the chance i took i guess

 

people laughed when i boldy snagged Michael Vick in the 15th round and didn't pick a kicker at all... "Can UFL players get you fantasy points har har har" but i figured what the heck.. he might land a starting job by mid season after his suspension... and serve as a great #2 qb potentially for Brady's bye week.. or if brady has really tough defense to face...i can either drop Delhomme or Chris Henry or if he doesn't get a job i can always drop him and get a kicker that way before the season starts

[Gladiators 2,026]

hah who said anything about the #2??? and no i don't think you can base the #2 pick on it either... that is why i didn't draft any any of the one year wonders with the 5th pick in my draft...

 

This response is the reason I brought up the #2 pick. In addition, in none of your posts did you state that your response is only for 2009...Just that "you can't base the #1 pick on one year... ", which infers in any year as it sounds like a general rule of yours.

 

My point is that there are very few backs with years of experience that are worthy of a top 5 pick this year. However, I'm also a believer that you can take some risk in picking a guy with high upside this year in round 1 (guys with 1 year of experience under their belt), because there's great depth and guys with lots of upside that can be had in rounds 4-7 as RB3's or RB4's on your team.

 

I would say that D Will certainly could be drafted as the #1 guy if he was a 325 carrie per year back and put up 20 TD's last year. I think he was one of only a few back to average 5+ ypc last year as well.

 

One other thing...You said that you "took a little bit of a gamble" by drafting LT this year. Well, based on the things your looking for in your 1st round pick, I'd say LT is your guy. All the others have very little experience, or are often injured.

[DeaLerZ 0]

This response is the reason I brought up the #2 pick. In addition, in none of your posts did you state that your response is only for 2009...Just that "you can't base the #1 pick on one year... ", which infers in any year as it sounds like a general rule of yours.

 

Gotcha

 

My point is that there are very few backs with years of experience that are worthy of a top 5 pick this year. However, I'm also a believer that you can take some risk in picking a guy with high upside this year in round 1 (guys with 1 year of experience under their belt), because there's great depth and guys with lots of upside that can be had in rounds 4-7 as RB3's or RB4's on your team.

 

I agree completely.. if you do take the risk there are plenty of guys you can get and get strong depth in case things go sour, and i definitely would have done that if i went that route

 

I would say that D Will certainly could be drafted as the #1 guy if he was a 325 carrie per year back and put up 20 TD's last year. I think he was one of only a few back to average 5+ ypc last year as well.

 

yea i agree.. i don't think it is a question that he is talented and could be huge for years to come... its just is he big enough to have a 300+ carry season.. so far the panthers haven't thought so

 

One other thing...You said that you "took a little bit of a gamble" by drafting LT this year. Well, based on the things your looking for in your 1st round pick, I'd say LT is your guy. All the others have very little experience, or are often injured.

 

and yea i agree.. for the things i look for in a #1.. luckily it turned out that way... but if it didn't i would have honestly tried to gamble on D.Williams because i am a panthers fan, and the guy has the potential to be huge.. and there offense hasn't changed one bit