This is what I'll be thinking about all weekend.

[dats007 1]

I think I'm going to keep Frank Gore and Peyton Manning this year. I know, I know...it'd cost me my first two picks this year, but I feel that they'll give me the best opportunity to score consistent points than my other options, Santonio Holmes and Pierre Thomas.

 

A sample of the conversation in my head lately:

 

Santonio Holmes would only cost an eighth-round pick, and his current ADP is that of a fifth-round selection, so there is relatively good value in keeping him. Even better when you consider that my top-five ranked WR's (Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss and Greg Jennings) are all most-likely being kept. Roddy White, Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson are also going to be kept, meaning that Santonio is about the tenth best WR available in the draft, making his selection as an eighth round keeper even more valuable.

 

And Pierre Thomas? He's a fifteenth-round keeper this year! The last time I had a fifteenth-round keeper, it was Willie Parker following his breakout season in 2005. That worked out pretty well. You're going to pass on that and keep Gore with your first-round pick?! Gore is arguably the best available player in this seasons draft. Michael Turner, Steven Jackson and Peyton Manning round out the top-tier of the players that the team with the first-overall pick will be evaluating over the next week-and-a-half before the draft. I'm sitting with the eleventh-pick, but due to the keeper rules we've used for the past several years, there will only be five, maybe six picks ahead of me. That would leave me picking from the LaDanian Tomlinson, Marion Barber, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Wayne's of the world. All of who'm I'd love as a second-RB, but when drafted in the first round and paired with Pierre Thomas, make for a vulnerable starting fantasy backfield.

 

Wayne wouldn't be a back selection, but I think based on the needs of the guy drafting behind me at twelve (and thirteen), I could get him in the second round. Unless I was to keep Manning (who would cost me my second-round pick if paired with Gore, first-round pick if I kept Thomas or Holmes), who'd be the only top-tier QB to go back into the draft, with Drew Brees and Tom Brady being kept. Phillip Rivers is my next highest rated QB and most likely will be taken in the second-round of our QB-favored scoring system.

 

With Gore and Manning, I'd be without my first-two selections, but I'd have two of the top-five players in this years draft. If I kept Gore and Holmes, I'd have not only a top-two or-three RB, but also a top-ten WR and a second-round selection (that I could use on Anquan Boldin, Brandon Jacobs, Wayne or Manning).

[We Tigers 71]

You have to keep Pierre in the 15th round. You're ignoring the advantages you can get from a keeper league if you don't--in fact, you'd even be overpaying for Peyton Manning. Even if you think PT amounts to nothing, take him and trade him for something. Putting a third-rounder back in when you can get him for almost free is a bad idea.

 

If you really want to keep one of your top guys, why don't you hold onto Thomas and Gore? Then you can draft the best available WR or maybe even take Manning back. Or, take Rivers with one of those first two picks you have, since you have him highly rated and believe there won't be many other options at QB.

 

I'm less worried about you leaving Holmes out there since you only save 2-3 rounds on his ADP (5.12 right now), and I consider him to be a fringe WR2 who's not likely to outplay Hines Ward this year.

[Big Dog NJ 11]

I agree with We Tiger, keep P. Thomas for sure. I'd go Thomas/Gore and have my second rd pick. Rivers/Rodgers will out score Manning, and if u fall further, theres still plenty of talent at qb.

Big Dog

[WhiteWonder 2,738]

the first probem with whats going on in your head is thinking Santonio Holmes is a top 10 WR. He isn't. He may be good value in the 8th round but its not nearly the value PT has as a 15th rounder.

 

Keep PT, no doubt about it.

[illest 0]

Have to keep thomas with a 15th - lock that up and dont look back. Thats a steal and gives you a big leg up over your competition.

[dats007 1]

If you really want to keep one of your top guys, why don't you hold onto Thomas and Gore? Then you can draft the best available WR or maybe even take Manning back. Or, take Rivers with one of those first two picks you have, since you have him highly rated and believe there won't be many other options at QB.

 

I'm less worried about you leaving Holmes out there since you only save 2-3 rounds on his ADP (5.12 right now), and I consider him to be a fringe WR2 who's not likely to outplay Hines Ward this year.

 

My bad. Keeper rules for our league only allow us to keep two players, but not at the same position.

 

the first probem with whats going on in your head is thinking Santonio Holmes is a top 10 WR. He isn't. He may be good value in the 8th round but its not nearly the value PT has as a 15th rounder.

 

I'm talking about top-ten of who's left after th keepers are announced. Closer to ten than one obviously.

[dats007 1]

Have to keep thomas with a 15th - lock that up and dont look back. Thats a steal and gives you a big leg up over your competition.

 

You aren't worried about the recent performance's by Mike Bell or the injury he's just sustained? The injury alone spooks me a little more than I'd really like to admit. If Bell continues to run with the way he has, and makes the most of the snaps that he's going to get over the remainder of the preseason with the first-team offense, he could be really dangerous. He could be this seasons Pierre Thomas. I've never liked the old rule that "you don't lose your job to injury" that so many coaches believe in. With the Saints being so close to making a run at the championship, I'm curious to know what Sean Payton will think of it when faced with a hot Mike Bell after next weeks game, or a guy who's banged-up with one solid season behind him.

 

For whatever it's worth, I tend to value a players history. Since Gore's rookie season, I've had him on one of my two teams or the other (often times, both) so I feel like I can breathe a certain sigh of relief knowing I've locked up 1300RuYds, 350RecYds and 7 or 8 combined TD's, however the TD totals have always left something to be desired. I don't have a track record with Thomas. He carried me to a second-place finish last season, which I'd like to personally thank him for someday, but in light of recent events, his value seems to be in jeopardy of quickly slipping.

[cortezthekiller303 0]

I read the title of this thread and just assumed the answer would be "poontang." Boy was I wrong.

[swamp dog 0]

i'll be thinking about beer all weekend...and steak...and other unmentionables.

 

football players won't cross my mind.

[dats007 1]

I think that there will be six picks ahead of me (I pick 11th) in the first round after we've announced keepers. The four players being kept in the first round are Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Maurice Jones-Drew. Below are the top five players who I project to be available in the draft (by position):

 

QB

Drew Brees

Peyton Manning

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Tony Romo

Kurt Warner

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Donovan McNabb

RB

Matt Forte

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Frank Gore

Steven Jackson

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Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

 

WR

Reggie Wayne

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Anquan Boldin

Marques Colston

Steve Smith (CAR)

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Dwayne Bowe