***Official NCAA wagering thread***

[phillybear 364]

Overall NCAA: 144-125-8; +36.21 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

 

I can't promise that this is a "Game of the Year" for me, because I don't know when I will feel so strongly about a game again, even this weekend. But perusing the weekday games this week..

 

West Virginia (-2.5)@-112 for 20 units

 

Wow. Not only is WV vastly underrated this year, struggling only because of turnovers, but I'm finally convinced that So Flor defense can't carry them worth a sh!t, because the offense is suffering without Grothe. I am hammering this Friday game.

[R.C.J.Hawk 0]

We have East Carolina -4 @ Memphis tonight......discussion may begin. Sportsbook has 97% on East Carolina and 63% on the under.....

[patweisers44 697]

We have East Carolinat -4 @ Memphis tonight......discussion may begin.

I like under 48 in that game tonight. Memphis has gone over just once this year and that was by 4 points in week 1. E. Carolina has played four road games and two have gone over and two under.

 

Looks like rain all day that might carry into gametime, so that may be a factor as well.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Not sure if I am going to play but the weather should be OK 10% chance.

 

Both teams blow though, if I bet I will have to watch this garbage

[DexterMorgan 5]

Indiana +17.5 looks good at Iowa.

[phillybear 364]

Overall NCAA: 144-125-8; +36.21 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 0-0; 0.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

 

(Terrible) Overall NFL: 43-49-1; -65.39 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 1-0; +20.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 8-13-1; -65.50 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 19-20; -8.3 units

 

Tuesday

 

Edit: Memphis (+5.5)@-103 for 3 units LOSER

OVER (48.5)@-103 for 2 units WINNER

Edit: Memphis 2nd H (+2.5)@-120 for 2 units LOSER

 

Garbage game. I've gotten used to fading both of these teams this year. Both could potentially score some points, so what the hell.

 

I had to wait an extra day to get my guy to raise the limit I can put on a game up to 20 units. Yeah, that's how my deal works. While I waited, WV dropped to -3@-102. So when I put it it finally, I editted my thread opening post to (-2.5)@-112. I might as well reflect my reality in my posting. I'm sorry for any confusion coming from me posting early. I would take WV up to -13.5 in this game. I might possibly lose, but...um...well, I'll definitely be drunk watching it.

 

Good luck to all.

 

Edit: Bumped Memphis up to 3 units

 

Overall NCAA: 145-127-8; +32.72 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 0-0; 0.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

[phillybear 364]

Oh, yeah. East Carolina seeing 82% of the action. Not a trap game.

[swirvenirvin 25]

zero reason for this bet

 

NCAA 42-40-1 -2.19 units

 

Memphis +12 under 54.5 6 pt teaser

[phillybear 364]

Dr Bob...

 

East Carolina (-5.5) 28 MEMPHIS 23

Over/Under Total: 48.0

05:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Oct-27

The Memphis offense has picked up since Arkelon Hall was replaced as the starting quarterback and since RB Curtis Steele got healthy (376 yards in the last two games) and my math model favors East Carolina by just 1 point in this game. However, the Pirates apply to a very good 56-12-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on their strong run defense (and Memphis' bad run defense). It' probably best to pass this game with the math favoring one side and the technical analysis favoring the other.

[phillybear 364]

Adding:

Memphis 2nd H (+2.5)@-120 for 2 units

[R.C.J.Hawk 0]

Philly, do you know anything about the website Accuscore? A friend and I are considering purchasing a package through them for game analysis and I was curious if you had heard anything. I guess they use game simulations along with the stat analysis to give a % on just about every major sports game played. Supposedly, this year they are 60.2% in the NFL, 54.6% in NHL, and 54.8% in NCAAF. Anyone else heard anything?

[R.C.J.Hawk 0]

Overall NCAA: 144-125-8; +36.21 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

 

I can't promise that this is a "Game of the Year" for me, because I don't know when I will feel so strongly about a game again, even this weekend. But perusing the weekday games this week..

 

West Virginia (-2.5)@-112 for 20 units

 

Wow. Not only is WV vastly underrated this year, struggling only because of turnovers, but I'm finally convinced that So Flor defense can't carry them worth a sh!t, because the offense is suffering without Grothe. I am hammering this Friday game.

 

I'm on board with ya PB. West Virginia has struggled to score in their previous 3 vs S.Flor..... But, Noel Devine is primed for another big game as SF is 7th in the Big East against the run. SF's backup QB was not good last week vs. Pitt going 4 for 8 with 2 picks. WV has a solid defense of their own, if they can get some pts on the board, SF will be struggling to keep up.

[R.C.J.Hawk 0]

For Thursday's game I am liking North Carolina +16.5 Seems like a large pt spread for a solid NC defense to lose by. North Carolina has given up more than 17pts only twice this year and are actually giving up less pts and less yards per game than Virginia Tech. I guess North Carolina hasn't beaten a ranked team on the road in 8 years so maybe the linesmakers expect them to crumble late and VT to get some garbage defensive TD's. I hope not. I think NC keeps this close and loses by 7 to 10 pts. But, I like the Friday game also, so a tease looks promising. Combining NC +23 and WV +3.5 on the tease. 2 units to win 1.66 units

[phillybear 364]

Philly, do you know anything about the website Accuscore? A friend and I are considering purchasing a package through them for game analysis and I was curious if you had heard anything. I guess they use game simulations along with the stat analysis to give a % on just about every major sports game played. Supposedly, this year they are 60.2% in the NFL, 54.6% in NHL, and 54.8% in NCAAF. Anyone else heard anything?

 

Honestly, I've never heard of them. I have no opinion on them, other than if you could find their stuff for free on the internet, that would be better than paying them.

 

But if they are winning and you buy them, keep us updated. Dr Bob is not winning this year, and I still try to post his stuff unless someone else does. Mostly because of his proven track record. I guess that's the key. Proven track record over years.

 

Are these guys independently monitered somewhere?

[R.C.J.Hawk 0]

If I'm reading their percentages right, last night the accuscore website had a pick in the nba of the Celtics +5, winner. And they took Washington Caps on the puck line which was also a winner. Tonight, they have New Orleans Hornets +9 at San Antonio and San Jose Sharks in the nhl. For this weekend, they have the Vikings +3 and Florida -15 over Georgia. So, I figured I'd keep tabs on their picks for awhile, see how they do....

[LaChup 154]

If I'm reading their percentages right, last night the accuscore website had a pick in the nba of the Celtics +5, winner. And they took Washington Caps on the puck line which was also a winner. Tonight, they have New Orleans Hornets +9 at San Antonio and San Jose Sharks in the nhl. For this weekend, they have the Vikings +3 and Florida -15 over Georgia. So, I figured I'd keep tabs on their picks for awhile, see how they do....

Like Philly said, I wouldn't pay for them when you can get them for free. Not sure if I'm supposed to do this on here or not, but you can use thespread.com to find regular and premium (payed for) plays from all the touts. Just know that sometimes too much info can make it more confusing for you. Use at your own risk. One who I like to follow is Steve Budin, especially his CEO picks.

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

0-2 posted this year

Got away from posting on here, but have strung togther a few good weeks so I thought i'd resurface.

 

Playing UNC +16 tonight for 2 units, it seems like too many points...I made this 10.

 

Probably staying away from WVU, although gun to head i take WVU because of SFla's very inexperienced QB..

 

Leans for Saturday

Ohio -6.5..fade of Ball State

 

Wisconsin -6.5... They are much more physical than Purdue and should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

 

Indiana +17.5 Iowa is banged up (Lineout broke leg, down to 3rd string RB) and hasn't blown anyone out this year except for Iowa State. Think Indy can hang around and make this a close game.

 

Nebraska-13...Baylor has been terrible since they lost their QB. Not scoring at all while Nebraska should be ready after 8 TOs last week and back to back home losses. See an anrgy tlaented team playing a bad team. Nebraska lays the wood to Baylor in this one.

 

SJState +35...This game was close last year into the middle of the 4th quarter. This seems like way too many, but I do know that SJState is bad this year so probalby a small bet for me.

 

Temple +7...See last year's game. Big Time Revenge and Dobbs still out for Navy at QB...

 

Toledo -5 vs. Miami...Toledo ran all over Miami last year and I look for the same this year. Toledo QB situation does make me a tad nervous though...

 

Canes -7...Wake has no offensive explosivenes. Feel like Miami will hang 30 on them and they won't keep up.

 

Lville -4...Don't get this line...Made this 12. I guess people are fading LVille and their terrible coach, but Ark State??

 

Air Force -4...Fade of CSU

 

S Car +7...Tennessee is playing better, but I think this one is a tight low-scoring game that goes to the wire. Two weeks ago, S Car would have been favored in this game.

 

Oregon +3.5...USC has not impressed me this year. Ducks have Masoli back and will have a big HFA at night.

 

Mich State -4...Minny without Decker is very challenged on offense. Think Mich State will roll as long as they can shake off the end of the Iowa game.

 

Good luck to all, and all are welcome to chime in with comments.

[ToledoLurch 0]

Too many points tonight...

 

North Carolina +15.5 for 1 unit.

[ToledoLurch 0]

Philly, do you know anything about the website Accuscore? A friend and I are considering purchasing a package through them for game analysis and I was curious if you had heard anything. I guess they use game simulations along with the stat analysis to give a % on just about every major sports game played. Supposedly, this year they are 60.2% in the NFL, 54.6% in NHL, and 54.8% in NCAAF. Anyone else heard anything?

 

 

There has been some discussion of Accuscore over on the RX forum, you may want to do a search over there. From what I recall, the people using it had some success...

[art schlichter's bookie 0]

ToledoLurch---You know what's going on with Qb situation for the Toledo Rockets this Saturday?

 

Are they going with the 3rd stringer?

[swirvenirvin 25]

Va Tech -15

[swirvenirvin 25]

Couple plays for this weekend

 

WVirginia -3 (-105)

Wisconsin -7 (-105)

Michigan -7 (-105)

Indiana +17.5 (-105)

Florida(N) -14.5 (-105)

10 pt teaser

PennSt -7 (-105)

Wisconsin +3 (-105)

WVirginia +7 (-105)

[cribdog 0]

Overall NCAA: 144-125-8; +36.21 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

 

I can't promise that this is a "Game of the Year" for me, because I don't know when I will feel so strongly about a game again, even this weekend. But perusing the weekday games this week..

 

West Virginia (-2.5)@-112 for 20 units

 

Wow. Not only is WV vastly underrated this year, struggling only because of turnovers, but I'm finally convinced that So Flor defense can't carry them worth a sh!t, because the offense is suffering without Grothe. I am hammering this Friday game.

 

OK Philly, I am loading up on this one with you, take me to the promise land!

[R.C.J.Hawk 0]

Somewhat of a red flag that sportsbook has 84% on WV and the spread hasn't moved off of 3?? LETS GO MOUNTAINEERS!!!

[phillybear 364]

Overall NCAA: 145-127-8; +32.72 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 0-0; 0.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

 

(Terrible) Overall NFL: 43-49-1; -65.39 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 1-0; +20.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 8-13-1; -65.50 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 19-20; -8.3 units

 

Friday

 

West Virginia (-2.5)@-112 for 20 units

 

I just wanted to give a few more thoughts into this matchup, and some of my reasons for liking WV so much. Realistically, WV should be undefeated, as they blew a significant lead at Auburn and turned the ball over a million times to blow the game. Outside of that, they have been cruising along, outgaining 6 of their first 7 opponents, some of them by large numbers in total yards:

WV 438, Liberty 299

WV 509, E Car 237

WV 509, Auburn 400

WV 405, Colorado 392

WV 385, Syracuse 222

WV 313, Marshall 207

UConn 501, WV 387.

The one blemish is the UConn game last week. You have to remember the emotional angle in that game. The UConn team was fired up, playing for the memory of their teammate that was just stabbed and killed. WV weathered the storm and won the game against a very fired up and talented UConn team, who I believe has covered every game this year, and remains underrated. So, not only is WV outgaining their opponents, they do so on a balanced basis.

WV gains 5.1 yards per rush vs teams that allow 4.2 ypr

WV completes 67.7% of their passes vs teams that allow 63.2% completions.

They are well above average in both running and passing the ball, with talented skill position players. Some things don’t seem to change at West Virginia.

Their defense against the run, along with solid running game, leads me to believe they should be fine in the trenches, as WV allows 2.8 yards per rush. They are a solid team that has had some trouble covering large double digit spreads, although statistically they should be covering those games. We all remember that Colorado game, don’t we? But they are winning, so a spread around -3 is not asking for a blowout necessarily.

 

South Florida comes into this game with the much worse offense and a similar defense statistically to WV. A case can be made that the offensive statistics are inflated, as QB Grothe played the early part of the year vs some less than stellar squads. Total yards…

SF 359, Wofford 207

SF 461, Western Kentucky 284

SF 547, Charleston Southern 188

SF 368, Florida St 288

SF 333, Syracuse 344

SF 376, Cincinnati 401

SF 212, Pittsburgh 486

It’s troubling that SF with their new QB is getting outgained in their last 3 games, but look at the comparison in total yards in the common opponent game of Syracuse. WV dominated Syracuse from beginning to end in that game. SF pulled away late, and if memory serves correct, due to defense or special teams or something like that.

SF gains 4.6 yards per rush vs teams that allow 4.8 ypr.

SF completes 59.9% of their passes vs teams that allow 65.3% completions.

SF allows 3.9 yards per rush.

SF is definitely a below average offensive team, both running and throwing the ball. Their run defense is a full yard per rush worse than WV.

 

I didn’t see any real significant trends or situational items to make this anything other than a technical analysis play. WV sure looks like a better team to me, and I don’t think they are getting much attention for their body of work this season. SF started out of the gate fast and even upset inconsistent Florida St, but looked overmatched against very good but still flawed Cincinnati and Pittsburgh teams, and was outgained by Syracuse in a win. WV belongs near the top of the Big East this year, and I expect them to win this game by double digits. Unless, of course, the ugly turnover shows up again. I’m hoping they learn to hold onto the ball today. I still feel nauseous over 4 straight possessions fumbling inside Colorado territory.

 

Good luck to all.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Overall NCAA: 145-127-8; +32.72 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 0-0; 0.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 35-31-2; +24.1 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 57-51-5; -5.63 units

 

(Terrible) Overall NFL: 43-49-1; -65.39 units

Subset: 20 unit plays: 1-0; +20.0 units

Subset: 10 unit plays: 8-13-1; -65.50 units

Subset: 5 unit plays: 19-20; -8.3 units

 

Friday

 

West Virginia (-2.5)@-112 for 20 units

 

I just wanted to give a few more thoughts into this matchup, and some of my reasons for liking WV so much. Realistically, WV should be undefeated, as they blew a significant lead at Auburn and turned the ball over a million times to blow the game. Outside of that, they have been cruising along, outgaining 6 of their first 7 opponents, some of them by large numbers in total yards:

WV 438, Liberty 299

WV 509, E Car 237

WV 509, Auburn 400

WV 405, Colorado 392

WV 385, Syracuse 222

WV 313, Marshall 207

UConn 501, WV 387.

The one blemish is the UConn game last week. You have to remember the emotional angle in that game. The UConn team was fired up, playing for the memory of their teammate that was just stabbed and killed. WV weathered the storm and won the game against a very fired up and talented UConn team, who I believe has covered every game this year, and remains underrated. So, not only is WV outgaining their opponents, they do so on a balanced basis.

WV gains 5.1 yards per rush vs teams that allow 4.2 ypr

WV completes 67.7% of their passes vs teams that allow 63.2% completions.

They are well above average in both running and passing the ball, with talented skill position players. Some things don’t seem to change at West Virginia.

Their defense against the run, along with solid running game, leads me to believe they should be fine in the trenches, as WV allows 2.8 yards per rush. They are a solid team that has had some trouble covering large double digit spreads, although statistically they should be covering those games. We all remember that Colorado game, don’t we? But they are winning, so a spread around -3 is not asking for a blowout necessarily.

 

South Florida comes into this game with the much worse offense and a similar defense statistically to WV. A case can be made that the offensive statistics are inflated, as QB Grothe played the early part of the year vs some less than stellar squads. Total yards…

SF 359, Wofford 207

SF 461, Western Kentucky 284

SF 547, Charleston Southern 188

SF 368, Florida St 288

SF 333, Syracuse 344

SF 376, Cincinnati 401

SF 212, Pittsburgh 486

It’s troubling that SF with their new QB is getting outgained in their last 3 games, but look at the comparison in total yards in the common opponent game of Syracuse. WV dominated Syracuse from beginning to end in that game. SF pulled away late, and if memory serves correct, due to defense or special teams or something like that.

SF gains 4.6 yards per rush vs teams that allow 4.8 ypr.

SF completes 59.9% of their passes vs teams that allow 65.3% completions.

SF allows 3.9 yards per rush.

SF is definitely a below average offensive team, both running and throwing the ball. Their run defense is a full yard per rush worse than WV.

 

I didn’t see any real significant trends or situational items to make this anything other than a technical analysis play. WV sure looks like a better team to me, and I don’t think they are getting much attention for their body of work this season. SF started out of the gate fast and even upset inconsistent Florida St, but looked overmatched against very good but still flawed Cincinnati and Pittsburgh teams, and was outgained by Syracuse in a win. WV belongs near the top of the Big East this year, and I expect them to win this game by double digits. Unless, of course, the ugly turnover shows up again. I’m hoping they learn to hold onto the ball today. I still feel nauseous over 4 straight possessions fumbling inside Colorado territory.

 

Good luck to all.

 

 

Very good points. I like West Virginia too but will probably lay off tonight. GL with your play and kudos to getting the line at 2.5 when it is 3 or 3.5 at most places now.

[ToledoLurch 0]

ToledoLurch---You know what's going on with Qb situation for the Toledo Rockets this Saturday?

 

Are they going with the 3rd stringer?

 

The second stringer returned to practice on Tuesday and Opelt returned yesterday. I doubt that the 3rd stringer sees the field tomorrow.

 

I was at the game last Saturday and the defense totally sucks. Temple ran right through them like swiss cheese. I haven't looked too much at this game yet, but if they are playing a team that runs the ball, I would be nervous...

[ToledoLurch 0]

Tonight

 

WV -3 for 1 unit

 

NBA

 

Philly -6

Sac/New Orleans under 201.5

[ToledoLurch 0]

Looks like we have some weather tomorrow. There should be some nice wind to push some unders...

[phillybear 364]

Dr Bob...

 

I am now 14-17-2 (37-48-5 on a Star Basis) on my Best Bets for the season based on the line at the time of release and 12-15-2 based on the lines after they move. The Strong Opinions are now 27-22 for the season. I'm down for the season and the last two weeks have been bad

 

#116 Virginia (-7) 3-Stars at -7 (-112 odds or better), 2-Stars up to -8.

#159 Missouri (-3 1/2) 2-Stars at -5 or less, 3-Stars at -3 or less.

#171 Penn State (-17) 2-Stars at -17 or less, 3-Stars at -16.

#192 Utah (-17) 3-Stars at -18 or less, 2-Stars up to -19.

#202 North Texas (-12 1/2) 2-Stars at -13 or less, 3-Stars at -11.

 

Strong Opinion - #118 Iowa (-17) Strong Opinion at -17, 2-Star Best Bet at -16 1/2.

Strong Opinion - #124 Florida St (-9) Strong Opinion at -9 or less.

Strong Opinion - #146 Boise State (-35) Strong Opinion at -36 or less.

Strong Opinion - #161 Kansas State (+28) Strong Opinion at +27 or more.

Strong Opinion - #164 Oklahoma State (+9) Strong Opinion at +8 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +10 (-112 odds or better).

Strong Opinion - #174 Idaho (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.

Strong Opinion - #204 Florida Atl. (-1 1/2) Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at +1.

Strong Opinion - #205 UL Monroe (+16 1/2) Strong Opinion at +16 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +17 or more.

Strong Opinion - #232 Central Florida (-6) Strong Opinion at -6 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -5.

[brian1974 0]

WV -3

 

Under 49

 

GL

[phillybear 364]

Well, in years past, our threads had more posts, but many times it was due to commentary on games as they progressed. Obviously, I have a large interest in the West Viriginia team, so I'll probably clog up this thread with my half in the bag rambling like a mother focker that swallowed a dozen kitchen sponges. Let the venom/celebration begin. This will not end well. Those of you reading this post on Saturday morning, skip ahead to page 3. Well, maybe page 4.

 

TV on mute. I'll be playing Du Hast by Rammstein and Uprising by Muse on loop for the next 4 hours.

[brian1974 0]

Well, in years past, our threads had more posts, but many times it was due to commentary on games as they progressed. Obviously, I have a large interest in the West Viriginia team, so I'll probably clog up this thread with my half in the bag rambling like a mother focker that swallowed a dozen kitchen sponges. Let the venom/celebration begin. This will not end well. Those of you reading this post on Saturday morning, skip ahead to page 3. Well, maybe page 4.

 

TV on mute. I'll be playing Du Hast by Rammstein and Uprising by Muse on loop for the next 4 hours.

 

 

 

Ahhh a MUSE Fan... Nice....

[phillybear 364]

And, the babbling begins. So far so good. First possesion of the game.

 

West Virginia 7-0.

[phillybear 364]

Ahhh a MUSE Fan... Nice....

 

We talk a bit about Muse on the Geek Bored. Of the newer bands, I seem to find myself enjoying Muse, My Chemical Romance, Silversun Pickups, and The Killers. An eclectic mix, to say the least.

[phillybear 364]

Fock. So Flor coverts a surprising attempt on 4th down, then hits a bomb. Which is the extent of their passing offense statistically, hitting the deep ball. Disappointed that WV let a WR get deep. Um, study some game film, mother huckers.

 

7-7.

[phillybear 364]

Hey, West Virginia, the South Florida QB runs. Watch some focking tape.

 

Edit: So Flor with scores on their first 2 possessions. A focking disgrace.

 

So Flor 10-7.

[phillybear 364]

While So Flor goes for it in questionable 4th quarter territory, WV decides to punt on 4th and 1 from the So Flor 44. What a bunch of homos.

[phillybear 364]

That was weird. So Flor safety. Or TD. Based on replay.

 

Whoddathunkit? WV punts to get points. Time for a smoke. I smoke only when I drink. Which means...eh...you don't want to know.

[phillybear 364]

WV turnover in the red zone. God hates me.