Not touching a WR til Round 4 at the earliest

[Raider 84 29]

I rather have one of the top consistent wr's than a mediocre rb. It usually pays to just draft the best player.

[steelers2101 7]

A guy like Leon Washngton may currently be an afterthought, but if he wins the starting job in Seattle, Juston Forsett loses value. So you are not really gaining RB's in that situation. What it more or less boils down to is 1 RB per team with the idea that a few teams are capable of having 2 fantasy worthy guys while some teams will be such a platoon that no one will be fantasy reliable on a weekly basis.

 

Someone like Ray Rice was drafted in every league last year. As early as round 4 by late August when the hype train hit full speed. Breakout WR's like Steve Smith, Sidney Rice, Mike Sims Walker and Miles Austin were all drafted very late or in some cases not at all.

 

By draft time last year, I took Ray Rice in the 3rd round in one league and in the first non-keeper round (4th) in my keeper league, where a lot of teams kept a bad player, or even 2, so it was essentially a 3rd round pick considering what was available. Someone on this board, a Ravens insider, is who I thank for that, particularly in the keeper league where Rice gives me probably the top ppr player.

 

Regarding Leon/Forsett, I understand your point, but although they may account for just 16 starts between them, they are still 2 different RBs that will be productive. I'd rather draft my top WRs with maybe a top QB early, get 1 reliable 16 week RB with 4 or 5 other guys that have the upside to be great starts on any given week.

 

Last year, by that logic, a draft like this would have been perfect:

 

Andre Johnson

Rodgers

Ray Rice

D.Jackson

Jonathan Stewart

Mendenhall

Harvin

F.Jackson

Bradshaw

among many other RB who could also be added to this list.

Vernon (probably my 2nd best pick last year after Rice)

Guys like Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Fred Jackson, Bradshaw, Hightower, Charles, etc... were draft day bargains last year. I'd highly recommend looking at past drafts just to compare how many draft day RB bargains finished as solid options to how many draft day WR bargains were solid. It will

[davidbostonisgood 2]

By draft time last year, I took Ray Rice in the 3rd round in one league and in the first non-keeper round (4th) in my keeper league, where a lot of teams kept a bad player, or even 2, so it was essentially a 3rd round pick considering what was available. Someone on this board, a Ravens insider, is who I thank for that, particularly in the keeper league where Rice gives me probably the top ppr player.

 

Regarding Leon/Forsett, I understand your point, but although they may account for just 16 starts between them, they are still 2 different RBs that will be productive. I'd rather draft my top WRs with maybe a top QB early, get 1 reliable 16 week RB with 4 or 5 other guys that have the upside to be great starts on any given week.

 

Last year, by that logic, a draft like this would have been perfect:

 

Andre Johnson

Rodgers

Ray Rice

D.Jackson

Jonathan Stewart

Mendenhall

Harvin

F.Jackson

Bradshaw

among many other RB who could also be added to this list.

Vernon (probably my 2nd best pick last year after Rice)

Guys like Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Fred Jackson, Bradshaw, Hightower, Charles, etc... were draft day bargains last year. I'd highly recommend looking at past drafts just to compare how many draft day RB bargains finished as solid options to how many draft day WR bargains were solid. It will

A draft by basically any logic works out. As in above, if the players you pick turn out.

 

You can build a stacked team this upcoming season by picking positions in the following orders:

RB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/QB

WR/WR/RB/RB/TE/QB/RB

QB/WR/RB/RB/RB/WR/TE

WR/RB/RB/TE/QB/WR/TE

QB/TE/RB/WR/RB/RB/WR

WR/WR/WR/TE/QB/RB/RB

TE/RB/QB/RB/TE/WR/WR

QB/QB/WR/TE/WR/RB/RB

etc.

.... just pick guys that have good seasons.

[Chargersin08 0]

Good luck with that strategy. I would guess you will loose if you try that. I went heavy on WR's last year and won 2 out of 4 leagues. There are very few top WR's then they go down hill fast.

Do people really not understand that loose and lose are two very different things?

[Cara 0]

I keep seeing Ray Rice's name pop up, but he was not a sleeper if you drafted two weeks before the season started or less. People drafting early got him in the 4th and 5th and even 6th rounds, in the 11ish drafts I did within ten days of the start of the season, he never slid past the middle of round 3. That is still tremendous value, however, it sort of takes the steam out of this whole "not drafting a WR until after RD 4" thing. Sometimes I tend to think people exaggerate a bit on the boards. In some of my leagues at MFL, Ray Rice went at the top of round 2 as every owner was well aware of his preseason success.

 

I am sure people that drafted in the first or second week of the preseason got him in the 5th or 6th rounds, but using Rice as an excuse to not take a WR in the first four rounds is comparing apples to oranges if you are a late drafter as he was off the boards before round 4 in all of my drafts.

 

If you analyze the WR position since 1999, there has been a nearly 50% turnover from year to year in the top 25 WR's. Sydney Rice, Austin Miles, Steve Smith, Sims-Walker, Donald Driver, Percy Harvin, Robert Meachem..... These guys were not expected to be top 25 WR's last season by the prediction of most of the fantasy magazines. This is the argument I would have made against drafting a WR early, however, I am a HUGE fan of drafting WR's early and often. Last season I took WR's in the first 3 rounds of a draft and won the league. I drafted two running backs to begin my draft in another league and made the playoffs, but lost to a fellow that drafted WR's with 3 of his first 4 picks. Again though, these are full point PPR Leagues, so WR's carry more weight.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Regarding Leon/Forsett, I understand your point, but although they may account for just 16 starts between them, they are still 2 different RBs that will be productive. I'd rather draft my top WRs with maybe a top QB early, get 1 reliable 16 week RB with 4 or 5 other guys that have the upside to be great starts on any given week.

 

you have to ask yourself if Seattle is the kind of team that can produce 2 fantasy worthy runningbacks like a Carolina, Giants, possibly Cowboys etc.

 

my point was that right now Forsett is the RB in Seattle being drafted. Leon is an afterthought. Should Leon wow us all as well as the coaching staff and become the starter by opening day, then yes, a new RB has emerged. BUT an old RB has declined.

 

where as with WR's they can sort of come out of nowhere and produce while not taking anything away from another player who is already being drafted with high expectations. Sims Walker last year did not hurt the fantasy status of another highly drafted Jags WR. Neither did Miles Austin. Roy Williams was probably going higher than he should have but still not very high. Steve Smith? no Giants WR was drafted very high.

 

even when a guy like Pierre Garcon starts producing, he can coexist peacefully with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark and not eat into their production.

[sheadtoo 1]

i've been doing redraft mocks from the 5,6,7 spots and keep ending up taking 3 WR in the first 4 rounds it has happened 3 outta the last 4 times. This last time I went from the 6 spot Gore then,White, Colston then Boldin

[kmbryant09 1]

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think anyone is suggesting you wait til the 5th round to take your first RB. But I think this year, more than any other recent year, I don't really trust any RB's outside the top 6 or so. I consider Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson the elite guys. And even Jackson obviously always has injury concerns. After that, I really don't see a difference between the guys in the 7-13 range versus the guys in the 14-20 range among RB's.

 

If I miss out on the "elite" guys, I'd rather make a "safer" elite WR pick like grabbing Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, etc., or even QB pick like Brees or Rodgers and then grab a RB with my next pick that I think can produce very similar to the guy I could of took the previous round. I think guys like Greene, Moreno, Mathews, Wells, McCoy, Stewart, P.Thomas, Addai could all easily outscore any of the guys going possibly in the group before them (Turner, Mendenhall, D.Williams, Benson, Grant, Charles). Some of the guys I listed could go in the 3rd or 4th round. So I think I can grab a Andre Johnson at the #7 pick, Peyton Manning at the #18 pick, and then still get a Wells, Moreno, Thomas in the 3rd round. If I'd go this route I'd obviously load up on RB's and make sure I have some quantity, but I could definitely see myself drafting this way this season if the draft falls that way.

 

You also have to know your league mates. I play mostly in PPR leagues with multiple flex positions, so RB's don't fly off the board near as quickly. If your league mates all draft RB heavy, then you may have to make sure you grab at least one sooner rather than much later. I think not taking a WR til the 4th round though is pretty tough. It can work, but you need to find a Miles Austin or Sims-Walker type later.

Andre Johnson used to have a few injury concerns, doesn't find the endzone a ton, and his production is tied to a very injury-prone QB. Fitzgerald lost Boldin and lost Warner, Moss is 34(?) and may be playing without Welker for a while, Reggie Wayne has the development of 3 young WR's around him and a top TE, B. Marshall is now switching teams and will be on a run-first offense for the first time.

 

There are question marks about nearly every single player. The deal-breaker for me between RB's and WR's is that it's much plausible to plug a WW wide receiver to get you 6-10 points most weeks (while most top WR's are getting 10-14) than it is to do the same with RB's. Most top RB's are scoring 15+ points every week, and unless you hit a Jamaal Charles or Jerome Harrison, you can't likely find a RB to rely on for more than about 5+ points.

 

What I'm trying to say is the difference between SOLID, STARTING RB's in fantasy and a questionable starter, WW pickup is a much wider gap than it is for SOLID, STARTING WR's in fantasy and a questionable, WW pickup.