MDC 5,895 Posted August 3, 2010 Pros: Tremendous speed, good receiver, returns kicks, should get touches immediately Cons: Muddled backfield, bad QB and OL on a bad team, injury history Any projections on Spiller? I'd be reluctant to draft him (or any Bill, really) until the 6-7 round at least, but I do think he's going to get significant (10-15) touches immediately and could put up something like 1,200 total yards and 8 or more total TDs. His kick return ability also increases his value. I think people are scared off by the logjam in the backfield, but Lynch is most likely traded and not very good, and Fred Jackson is a perfect complementary back but probably not a guy you want to start. Fred Jax also rushed for more than 1,000 yards last year for an offense that probably wasn't any better than it will be this year. I see no reason why Spiller can't put up those same numbers at least. Any projections or ideas on where in the draft he should go? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 3,317 Posted August 3, 2010 I think he will end being a good value pick in a PPR league. Last year Fred Jackson had 1,062 yds on 237 carries. He also had 46 catches for 371 yards. You have to assume that the Bills want Spiller to be in the mix quite a bit, since they spent such a high pick on him. I think its reasonable to think that he will have similar numbers to what Jackson did last year. He probably won't have as many carries, but he could make up for that by getting a lot of YAC on pass catches. The problem is that he won't get many touchdowns. Jackson and Lynch had 4 rushing TDs last year between them. The Bills offense just sucks too much for a lot of rushing TD opportunities. Plus Spiller is pretty light for goal-line carries. So I think the TD ceiling is quite low on Spiller; basically he will need to score on long plays and the Bills offense just isn't dynamic enough for that to happen very often. I'd put him in the 20-25 range among RBs in PPR leagues and the 30+ range in traditional scoring leagues. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buffalobillsffl2003 0 Posted August 4, 2010 The O-Line is getting better. The passing game is dismal though, among the few worst in the league. Defenses don't have to respect it, therefore they will key on stopping the running game. Draft Spiller as backup/bench material. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,209 Posted August 4, 2010 I think he will end being a good value pick in a PPR league. Last year Fred Jackson had 1,062 yds on 237 carries. He also had 46 catches for 371 yards. You have to assume that the Bills want Spiller to be in the mix quite a bit, since they spent such a high pick on him. I think its reasonable to think that he will have similar numbers to what Jackson did last year. He probably won't have as many carries, but he could make up for that by getting a lot of YAC on pass catches. The problem is that he won't get many touchdowns. Jackson and Lynch had 4 rushing TDs last year between them. The Bills offense just sucks too much for a lot of rushing TD opportunities. Plus Spiller is pretty light for goal-line carries. So I think the TD ceiling is quite low on Spiller; basically he will need to score on long plays and the Bills offense just isn't dynamic enough for that to happen very often. I'd put him in the 20-25 range among RBs in PPR leagues and the 30+ range in traditional scoring leagues. Why, did Jackson get hit by a bus or something? Spiller will be a 3rd down, change of pace back on a crappy team. Some value on your bench in a PPR, but 20-25 is kinda optimistic. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDC 5,895 Posted August 4, 2010 Why, did Jackson get hit by a bus or something? Spiller will be a 3rd down, change of pace back on a crappy team. Some value on your bench in a PPR, but 20-25 is kinda optimistic. I'd expect say 12-15 touches per game plus kick return duties. The question is what Spiller can do with those touches behind a bad OL on a team without a credible passing threat? My guess right now is that Spiller and Fred Jackson start at a virtual 50/50 split with Spiller assuming a larger role as the year wears on. Assuming he ends up with 150-175 carries and 30-40 receptions, I'm wondering if he can turn that into say 1,200 total yards plus 5-6 touchdowns? I haven't seen Spiller's ADP but that's pretty good value for a guy who might be had in the 7-8 round range. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IGotWorms 3,317 Posted August 5, 2010 Why, did Jackson get hit by a bus or something? Spiller will be a 3rd down, change of pace back on a crappy team. Some value on your bench in a PPR, but 20-25 is kinda optimistic. Inductive reasoning. Why would the Bills draft Spiller ninth overall if they were pleased as punch with Fred Jackson? When you draft a guy that high, you plan on giving him the ball. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kitsnow 0 Posted August 5, 2010 Don't forget his hold out hurting him in camp and maybe through the season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
friendlyoooo 0 Posted August 5, 2010 Don't forget his hold out hurting him in camp and maybe through the season. yup, that's right Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
