Why do some keeper owners reach for rookies?

[RicemanX 20]

I never quite understood this.

I have been playing in many dynasty/keeper leagues for years and there are always owners who will go out of their way to reach for the rookies.

 

This one owner picked Julio Jones in the first round when perfectly good and young receivers like Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham and Brandon Lloyd were available.

 

Other owner picked Ingram...not as much as a reach, but Best and Greene were still there.

 

I just don't understand that mentality. Is it like a "they like the unknown" type of thing? Is there something I'm not seeing?

[teamTDK 0]

I guess it depends on the league rules. Many keepers make it that if you keep a player, you lose a draft position relative to where they were taken. That way people aren't taking all the promising young rookies in the first few rounds.

 

Some keepers/dynasty leagues have rules where rookies have to be taken in the first few rounds.

 

If there are no keeper rules like this or it's a dynasty league, the reasoning is you get to keep the player longer if they are younger. If they are reasonably happy with their team/current players, then there's even more incentive to start building your future.

 

I wouldn't have a problem with those particular reaches especially since people think big things for them this season ... even if they haven't played yet.

In one of my keepers, one of my backs is Sjax ... he's starting to get on in years. I might try to lock up an ingram or something early too because I'm satisfied with my team as it is and need to start building for my future.

 

I think a lot of it has to do with the rules, settings and the number of players that can be kept.

[We Tigers 71]

There's also a notion of blue-chip talents being better bets for high ceilings than guys who haven't really proven too much yet. To use your examples, yeah, Stevie J, Lloyd, and Manningham all had great seasons. Does anyone think any of those 3 are at all likely to be perennial superstar receivers, like AJ, Calvin, Fitz, etc.? With Julio Jones or AJ Green, you still have that potential. We haven't really gotten a sense of how far they can go yet.

 

If you want a guy you know will be pretty good, you can certainly find a vet with 1 or 2 years of top-15 or better production to his name. If you're shooting for an every-year all-star, the kind that goes in round 1 or 2 of redrafts every season, you've got to find him early. Every year there are a couple rookies at each position that look to have that potential, and hitting on one of them can really set your team up for a long time.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

in a general sense, i agree with you. I play in a 3 player keeper league and a 4 player keeper and i notice that rookies go very early and I don't understand it. Its a keeper league, not a dynasty. Youth doesn't really matter. I know people wan't to chase the next CJ2k or ADP but there are proven performers out there.

 

however i dont really see a problem with drafting Julio Jones over Manningham and others. I love Manningham this year but lets be honest. We don't fully know what to expect yet.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

There's also a notion of blue-chip talents being better bets for high ceilings than guys who haven't really proven too much yet. To use your examples, yeah, Stevie J, Lloyd, and Manningham all had great seasons. Does anyone think any of those 3 are at all likely to be perennial superstar receivers, like AJ, Calvin, Fitz, etc.? With Julio Jones or AJ Green, you still have that potential. We haven't really gotten a sense of how far they can go yet.

 

If you want a guy you know will be pretty good, you can certainly find a vet with 1 or 2 years of top-15 or better production to his name. If you're shooting for an every-year all-star, the kind that goes in round 1 or 2 of redrafts every season, you've got to find him early. Every year there are a couple rookies at each position that look to have that potential, and hitting on one of them can really set your team up for a long time.

 

well, i would say its not a forgone conclusion. Lloyd we think not but he may have just been a late bloomer, Johnson could definately be that type but is slightly held back by his QB... like fitz was last year. Manningham, less likely but you never know. Manning seems to like him alot.

[jerryskids 5,206]

There's also a notion of blue-chip talents being better bets for high ceilings than guys who haven't really proven too much yet. To use your examples, yeah, Stevie J, Lloyd, and Manningham all had great seasons. Does anyone think any of those 3 are at all likely to be perennial superstar receivers, like AJ, Calvin, Fitz, etc.? With Julio Jones or AJ Green, you still have that potential. We haven't really gotten a sense of how far they can go yet.

 

If you want a guy you know will be pretty good, you can certainly find a vet with 1 or 2 years of top-15 or better production to his name. If you're shooting for an every-year all-star, the kind that goes in round 1 or 2 of redrafts every season, you've got to find him early. Every year there are a couple rookies at each position that look to have that potential, and hitting on one of them can really set your team up for a long time.

 

Great post. Sticking with the receiver theme, there is something in common with the top tier of WRs this year: AJ, Calvin, Fitz, Roddy, Nicks -- they were first rounders in the NFL draft. Randy Moss, Jerry Rice... first round. I'm certainly not saying that all first round WRs are a success, but the true QB-proof, system-proof, beast-mode WRs tend to be first-rounders.

 

RB isn't as clear, but if you don't think Best and Greene will enter that first tier of RBs (and personally I don't), then you can make a case for taking a shot at Ingram.