2011 Interactive Blog - The fat lady has sung!

[madd futher mucker 36]

The swallows have returned to Capistrano, the drafts have been completed, and it is time for a new NFL and fantasy season and another year for “the Blog”, my interactive log of my fantasy season. This thing started a few years ago. At that time, it occurred to me that many on this board believed that fantasy football had a great deal to do with luck and little to do with skill. I decided to track my fantasy season with about 5 leagues, giving and receiving some advice along the way and putting to rest that premise by winning two league Championships that 1st year.

 

There is no denying the luck element of fantasy football. In fact, if you are just about as skilled as everyone else in your league, then everyone has an equal chance of winning, because luck is the over-riding factor. But if you are willing to invest just a little more time than your league mates and learn some proven techniques of game theory as they apply to fantasy football, you can significantly increase the odds of not only making the play-offs, but winning your league. I think my results of the last couple of years have established that. Putting together the very best team possible requires mastery of all aspects of fantasy football: drafting, trading, waiver management, and weekly roster setting as well as a myriad of other strategies. There are some strategies that only work in certain scoring formats, roster and league sizes but are counterproductive in others. Since I’ve played in a very wide variety of league situations, I hope I can help you with that.

 

This year, I’m down from six teams to four (I just sold part of my interest in a semi-dynasty league to a friend. Last year, my team scored the most in the regular season - good for $100 - but I was eliminated in my 1st play-off match-up. I just don‘t like the league rules enough to continue). My favorite format, my auction redraft league disbanded this year. I was fortunate to go out as the back-to-back league champion. Maybe next year we can get some more interest. I also decided not to play in the FFPC this year. While I did fairly well in it last year, the ROI in terms of time and investment just didn’t make sense, especially given our family’s health and financial situation right now.

 

This last 12 months was one of the rougher ones we’ve been through - six hospitalizations and 3 surgeries between the 3 of us. I’m not complaining though; throughout our life we’ve been very blessed - great family, great friends, a lifestyle that most would envy, and our Texas home is still standing although the drought brought with it a recent rash of fires that came pretty close to us.

 

I think all of us who have the time and money to indulge ourselves in this great football pastime should sometimes take a step back and realize just how lucky we are - and keep in perspective our fantasy football addiction relative to the importance of faith, family and friends. That said, it is again time to kick ass and take names in the leagues in which we compete!

 

Let me introduce my four teams:

Team 1 - Last year, I finished with the highest regular season point total and 3rd place in my Redraft 12 team PPR league. We start 1QB, 2 Rbs, 2 Wrs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE,K, D/ST. My roster (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Cutler, Witten, Cook, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, Wells, M Bush, Karim,

S Moss, Julio, Amendola, L Moore, D Moore

 

Team 2 - I bought into an abandoned team in a Deep Keeper 10 team Standard Scoring league last year, and didn‘t quite make the play-offs. This year I traded to get 3 1st round picks. I spent two of them on LeShoure and Ryan Williams. Sometimes the fantasy gods are just unkind. My team still isn’t that bad though, so let’s see where we go from here.

We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; My roster (probable starters in bold) is:

Schaub, Cutler, V Davis, Cook, J Thomas, Crosby

Forte, Best, Wells, Powell, Vereen,

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Ford, Sanders, A Brown, Benn, Briscoe, Gibson,

 

Team 3 - The Fat Bastards Dynasty 12 Team PPR is a new league that I started this spring. Scoring is 1.5 fpts for TEs and return yds to player. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. Again probable starters are in bold:

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Boss, Suisham, AZ;

Foster, Bradshaw, F Jax,McGahee, Scott,

S Moss, Amendola, Mason, Royal, Roberts, D Moore, Easley, Hixon,

Inactive developmental roster: Cobb, Kaepernick, J White, R Broyles (college).

 

Lastly, Team 4 - The Smack Talk 12 team Keeper PPR is my family and friends league. This is not your normal family and friends league - very competitive. Last year I took 3rd place money. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST. Here's my team (starters bolded):

Big Ben, Bradford, Finley, Cook, Suisham, AZ

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart, Ringer

Bowe, S Moss, Ford, Julio, Little

 

Here's a hearty welcome back to all my old friends and followers of this blog. The reason I keep doing tis is because many of you have said that you enjoy and get something out of it. To the new posters here, FFToday is a great forum and you can learn and contribute much if you choose to do so.

 

I invite all of you to post comments, give advice or ask any questions on almost any aspect of fantasy football to make this thing truly interactive. And here’s a toast to a great new fantasy year.

 

[Mike Nice 40]

You didnt draft any TEs?

[madd futher mucker 36]

You didnt draft any TEs?

 

No, I hate TEs .......I list QBs, TEs, Ks and Defenses on the same (top) roster line.....saves space!

[Stewburtx8 67]

Glad to see you are doing this again MFM. Always one of the better reads on this forum. An in-depth look at team management across many different league formats. A lot of times I can find little tidbits that may help me in my own roster management, even though we have vastly different rosters. Also always good to bounce around different thoughts and ideas.

 

Just looking at your teams, it seems you have A LOT invested in Santana Moss and Julio Jones. Besides Nicks on Team 2 and Bowe on Team 4, I don't see a better WR on any of your rosters. Was it intentional that you ended up RB and TE heavy? I'm guessing you think Santana is being undervalued and has another 80-1000 season in him, even with Grossman or Beck at QB? I have him on one of my teams, but he is most likely my WR4. How high do you think Julio's ceiling is as a rookie? 60-800-7 type potential already?

 

On Team 1, I'm a little suprised you have Jared Cook listed as a starter over Danny Amendola already. Would think Amendola would be the safer option out of the gate. Could see him getting a lot of targets in the slot in Week 1 vs Philly. Although St Louis may just be able to run the ball all day.

[Mike Nice 40]

No, I hate TEs .......I list QBs, TEs, Ks and Defenses on the same (top) roster line.....saves space!

 

Haha oh yea i see them now

 

[madd futher mucker 36]

Glad to see you are doing this again MFM. Always one of the better reads on this forum. An in-depth look at team management across many different league formats. A lot of times I can find little tidbits that may help me in my own roster management, even though we have vastly different rosters. Also always good to bounce around different thoughts and ideas.

 

Just looking at your teams, it seems you have A LOT invested in Santana Moss and Julio Jones. Besides Nicks on Team 2 and Bowe on Team 4, I don't see a better WR on any of your rosters. Was it intentional that you ended up RB and TE heavy? I'm guessing you think Santana is being undervalued and has another 80-1000 season in him, even with Grossman or Beck at QB? I have him on one of my teams, but he is most likely my WR4. How high do you think Julio's ceiling is as a rookie? 60-800-7 type potential already?

 

On Team 1, I'm a little suprised you have Jared Cook listed as a starter over Danny Amendola already. Would think Amendola would be the safer option out of the gate. Could see him getting a lot of targets in the slot in Week 1 vs Philly. Although St Louis may just be able to run the ball all day.

 

 

Thanks, Stew - glad to be able to do this again.

 

Heavy drafting of 4th tier WRs (180-200 FPT WRs) was not really a conscious thing, but it was only somewhat intentional in that my board only had about 25 RBs bankable for about 180 FPTs or more. A goal of mine was to get 3 of them. So I kept track of the pace at which they went off the board, which in turn pushed me lower than the tier 1-3 WRs.

 

Regarding TEs, except in Fat Bastards, where he is equivalent to a tier 1 WR (BTW, I drafted Witten and then traded him for Randall Cobb, Winslow, and 2012 1st round rookie pick, then traded Winslow for Johnny White and yet another 2012 1st round rookie, and then finally traded Best and my 2nd round rookie pick for Bradshaw, Olsen and even a 3rd 1st round rookie pick - this weakened my team for this year, but I couldn't resist the deals!), Witten is equavilent to a tier 3 WR, so I viewed him as such. My other TEs - Cook and Gronkowski were about 10th round steals. I love Cook who I think could possibly be close to the #1 receiver in TENN, and obviously he came much later than Britt.

 

Basically I didn't break into the WRs until the 6th round in the two leagues where I drafted full drafts, and S Moss, Amendola and Julio were the best values there. With flexes and double flexes I'm not all that concerned with guys like S Moss and Amendola in PPR. I've got S Moss penciled in for 200 FPTs again this year. Julio was just about the best value at the time, so he came along for the ride. I do have him ranked higher than AJ Green at 64 900 6-7 TDs and about 190-195 FPTS in PPR. I also trust my ability to identify and grab emerging sleeper picks at WR.

 

You were very observant regarding Cook/Amendola in team 1. Bolding Cook was much like a bookmark to me. I need to study this one more. Cook could have an absolute field day aganist JAX defense, and Philly has the ability to take away whichever WR they chose. I don't have a clue about how they will run their coverage yet. More study needed here for sure.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Thanks, Stew - glad to be able to do this again.

 

Heavy drafting of 4th tier WRs (180-200 FPT WRs) was not really a conscious thing, but it was only somewhat intentional in that my board only had about 25 RBs bankable for about 180 FPTs or more. A goal of mine was to get 3 of them. So I kept track of the pace at which they went off the board, which in turn pushed me lower than the tier 1-3 WRs.

 

Regarding TEs, except in Fat Bastards, where he is equivalent to a tier 1 WR (BTW, I drafted Witten and then traded him for Randall Cobb, Winslow, and 2012 1st round rookie pick, then traded Winslow for Johnny White and yet another 2012 1st round rookie, and then finally traded Best and my 2nd round rookie pick for Bradshaw, Olsen and even a 3rd 1st round rookie pick - this weakened my team for this year, but I couldn't resist the deals!), Witten is equavilent to a tier 3 WR, so I viewed him as such. My other TEs - Cook and Gronkowski were about 10th round steals. I love Cook who I think could possibly be close to the #1 receiver in TENN, and obviously he came much later than Britt.

 

Basically I didn't break into the WRs until the 6th round in the two leagues where I drafted full drafts, and S Moss, Amendola and Julio were the best values there. With flexes and double flexes I'm not all that concerned with guys like S Moss and Amendola in PPR. I've got S Moss penciled in for 200 FPTs again this year. Julio was just about the best value at the time, so he came along for the ride. I do have him ranked higher than AJ Green at 64 900 6-7 TDs and about 190-195 FPTS in PPR. I also trust my ability to identify and grab emerging sleeper picks at WR.

 

You were very observant regarding Cook/Amendola in team 1. Bolding Cook was much like a bookmark to me. I need to study this one more. Cook could have an absolute field day aganist JAX defense, and Philly has the ability to take away whichever WR they chose. I don't have a clue about how they will run their coverage yet. More study needed here for sure.

 

 

Thanks MFM. I do agree that the RB's get really thin pretty quickly. I play in similar leagues that use multiple flex positions, so it gives you a lot of flexibility when drafting. One league I ended up with Charles and MJD with my first two picks, but then went WR/TE heavy with the next few picks. This league only starts 1 RB though with multiple flex (can start 1-3 RB's). My other league I got McCoy early, but then didn't draft a RB again for several rounds. I am hoping to have a RB2 out of Deangelo, FJax, and Benson because this league starts 2-3 RB's.

 

As for the TE strategy, I like this strategy a lot. I wasn't really questioning it, just wondering if it was something you set out to do before your drafts or set out to get in keeper/dynasty leagues. In my two main leagues (both PPR) I actually ended up with Witten/V.Davis and Gates/Witten. These leagues both start a TE but also have a WR/TE flex position, so I plan to start both of them. I think any of the top 5 TE's can put up at least WR2 type numbers (although I'd downgrade Clark without Manning for any significant time).

 

RE: Cook/Amendola...fair enough. The Eagles will play Nnamdi Asomugha on the right side, I know that much. Asante Samuel should start on the left side. Rodgers-Cromartie will play nickel back. In my opinion, they won't view any of the Rams WR's as someone they NEED to take away. Guessing Rodgers-Cromartie or a safety would end up on Amendola a lot in the slot.

[Cstriker 2]

paging MfM.. there is a trade request waiting so you can tell these guys why you rejected it.

[madd futher mucker 36]

paging MfM.. there is a trade request waiting so you can tell these guys why you rejected it.

I could have counter-offered Eli for Best there, but you know i like Eli too much.

[madd futher mucker 36]

No trade takers in Smack Talkers, so i bit the bullet and dropped Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown (now without shedding a few tears first, though) and picked up Suisham and the AZ defense as planned. I edited above with starters in bold.

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

good luck in league 2 this year

 

I think the Ryan Williams injury greatly helps your team in the short term giving you a 3rd quality starter at RB. I know you are a long term player but in a 10 team, 10 keeper... i don't think it will be an issue

 

for your readers who are interested i'll post my team from that league

 

Deep Keeper 10 Team Standard Scoring

 

Tony Romo, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, Collins

Felix Jones, Mathews, Lynch, Daniel Thomas, Michael Bush, Snelling

Miles Austin, Holmes, Stevie Johnson, Harvin, Amendola, Andre Roberts

Gronkowski, Heap, Gresham

[madd futher mucker 36]

Once you figured out how this trading thing works, you had a great pre-season - really improved your team. Let's both make the play-offs this year!

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

Once you figured out how this trading thing works, you had a great pre-season - really improved your team. Let's both make the play-offs this year!

 

ive always enjoyed trading but i like to keep myself in check. i dont like to trade for the sake of it, it often leads to a much worse team. I did make an effort to be a little more active this offseason but also this was our first full offseason in this league.

 

good luck

[madd futher mucker 36]

Week 1 is in the books. Of course I played without Arian Foster in two leagues, and played against Rodgers twice so I was fortunate to go 3-1.

 

I had an easy win in Team 1, my redraft league with the same starters I posted above.

 

I also used my predicted roster in the deep Keeper team 2 to more narrowly win that contest. BTW, WhiteWonder also squeaked out very close victory in that league.

 

Let me tell you, I hate the Monday night double-header. I had to wait until 1 AM central before Eddie Royal pulled down his second catch of the night in the final drive to seal my very narrow victory in the Fat Bastards dynasty league - team 3. Until that catch, I thought I‘d lost that one by 0.5 FPTs. I realize it was raining and they were playing the Oakland D, but I officially have no confidence that any WR other than Lloyd will have any consistency in Denver‘s offense.

 

I used the waiting time wisely, pondering what to do about the loss of Amendola, planning about two trades in each league and pre-planning my waiver bids. (I try to think up ½ dozen total trade offers every week in these 4 leagues. See below).

 

Dammit, I lost to my son in the Team 4 Smack Talk Keeper PPR. That is my family and friends league by about 30 FPTs, so it wasn’t pretty either. My son’s smack-talk comment was that I was lucky he didn’t play Tolbert too. That’s the fun of a competitive family league, though.

 

There was a lot of talk about draft strategy in this Bored leading up to game 1, and most of you know my target draft strategy. I’ve pretty much presented it as a best-player-available approach where I’m drafting for value with what I call a concept of bankable fantasy points at least through the 1st nine rounds. In response to Stewburtx8’s question, It occurred to me that my draft strategy does have anther element that dictates who I might pick.

 

Where players from two different positions have approximately the same number of bankable fantasy points, I will almost always draft the position of scarcity. So with there being only about 2 dozen RBs with bankable points, I’ll draft to potentially get three RBs if possible in a 12 team league, particularly if I don‘t have to give up too many FPTs over-all in order to do it. That means while most of the league owners only have 2 RBs with bankable production, at least one owner only has one to start with. And if my RB goes down early or out early in the season (I'm talking Foster here), I still have a fighting chance to win my weekly contest.

 

On Thursday, when I set my line-ups for week two, you will probably see a number of roster changes, and we can talk about strategy involving trading including waiver management and blind bidding strategy. Meanwhile, remember to get aggressive in your weekly roster management, but don’t forget that week one is generally the most over-reacted to week of the fantasy season. So make rational decisions (LOL - even if I don’t) and avoid getting too high or two low based on what happened this last weekend.

 

And yes, one of my proposed trades just went through, and it was a blockbuster in my Dynasty league with Cstriker of this board (who had an easy win this week). He managed to pry Foster away from me by offering me Deangelo Williams, Dez Bryant and his 2013 1st round rookie pick. There’s plenty of risk on both sides and I guess I’m just a sucker for rookie picks. It will either be a thing of genius or the most ill-advised trade I’ll make this year. I’d like your opinion if you care to weigh in!

 

I’m looking forward to your thoughts, not only on the trade, but also drafting strategy or anything else you have on your mind.

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

 

 

I also used my predicted roster in the deep Keeper team 2 to more narrowly win that contest. BTW, WhiteWonder also squeaked out very close victory in that league.

 

 

Little Wes Welker sure made that game closer than i thought it would be. I also over analyzed and played Harvin over Austin

 

glad to have a win heading into my week 2 matchup with the ever stacked bone collectors.

[Cstriker 2]

Its not easy giving up Brandon Marshall and Dez bryant away the same week in trades. *gulp*

 

But i think its going to work out. I actually see Foster/Dez,Dwill,2013 1st round trade in your favor. By how much is yet to be seen.

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

Little Wes Welker sure made that game closer than i thought it would be. I also over analyzed and played Harvin over Austin

 

glad to have a win heading into my week 2 matchup with the ever stacked bone collectors.

 

I wanted to further elaborate on my last comment above. and see if MFM has any thoughts on it.

 

The "ever stacked" team I refer to has the following roster

 

QB - Brees

RB - Foster, ADP, Ray Rice

WR - Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Andre Johnson

TE - Jason Witten

 

obviously he has been a great owner to build a team like that over the years, before I joined the league. From what i've seen, this league has alot of turnover and i wonder how much his roster has contributed to it. MFM and I joined last year and this offseason I believe 3 more owners were replaced, meaning 50% of the league has been turned over in the last two seasons.

 

i enjoy a challenge but i'm not sure a roster like that is good for a league long term unless you really pack it with nothing but die hard FF owners.

[We Tigers 71]

i enjoy a challenge but i'm not sure a roster like that is good for a league long term unless you really pack it with nothing but die hard FF owners.

That's pretty rough, yeah. All you can really hope for in a situation like that is to make the playoffs and get really, really lucky when you get there. I don't think I'd be up for the effort, especially when there are 9 other teams trying to get up there, too. Actually, I don't even think I'd like being the guy with that team for more than a year. What's the point?

 

And yes, one of my proposed trades just went through, and it was a blockbuster in my Dynasty league with Cstriker of this board (who had an easy win this week). He managed to pry Foster away from me by offering me Deangelo Williams, Dez Bryant and his 2013 1st round rookie pick. There’s plenty of risk on both sides and I guess I’m just a sucker for rookie picks. It will either be a thing of genius or the most ill-advised trade I’ll make this year. I’d like your opinion if you care to weigh in!

Yowza! Dez has looked like the real deal but I probably would have wanted another big-time player instead of a 2013 pick, or at least a 2012 pick. Still, I suppose that's a pretty good haul given the relative longevity of WRs; you can probably feel like Dez will be yours and solid for another 8+ years, if the league keeps on keepin' on. Deangelo I'm not sure about, particularly given his lack of involvement this weekend and Cam's endzone shenanigans; again, I probably would have wanted someone a little more ironclad and shed the pick.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I wanted to further elaborate on my last comment above. and see if MFM has any thoughts on it.

 

The "ever stacked" team I refer to has the following roster

 

QB - Brees

RB - Foster, ADP, Ray Rice

WR - Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Andre Johnson

TE - Jason Witten

 

obviously he has been a great owner to build a team like that over the years, before I joined the league. From what i've seen, this league has alot of turnover and i wonder how much his roster has contributed to it. MFM and I joined last year and this offseason I believe 3 more owners were replaced, meaning 50% of the league has been turned over in the last two seasons.

 

i enjoy a challenge but i'm not sure a roster like that is good for a league long term unless you really pack it with nothing but die hard FF owners.

 

 

A team with a roster like that is usually why dynasty leagues fall apart. It is a lot of fun to build a dynasty team, but I would want to think I could compete to be one of the better teams in at least 2-3 years, otherwise I'd just be throwing away my money. It is going to be tough for ANYONE to build a roster to compete with that team for several years. I am surprised you can even find replacement owners very easily at this point. It does not surprise me that the league has a lot of turnover.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Week 1 is in the books. Of course I played without Arian Foster in two leagues, and played against Rodgers twice so I was fortunate to go 3-1.

 

I had an easy win in Team 1, my redraft league with the same starters I posted above.

 

I also used my predicted roster in the deep Keeper team 2 to more narrowly win that contest. BTW, WhiteWonder also squeaked out very close victory in that league.

 

Let me tell you, I hate the Monday night double-header. I had to wait until 1 AM central before Eddie Royal pulled down his second catch of the night in the final drive to seal my very narrow victory in the Fat Bastards dynasty league - team 3. Until that catch, I thought I‘d lost that one by 0.5 FPTs. I realize it was raining and they were playing the Oakland D, but I officially have no confidence that any WR other than Lloyd will have any consistency in Denver‘s offense.

 

I used the waiting time wisely, pondering what to do about the loss of Amendola, planning about two trades in each league and pre-planning my waiver bids. (I try to think up ½ dozen total trade offers every week in these 4 leagues. See below).

 

Dammit, I lost to my son in the Team 4 Smack Talk Keeper PPR. That is my family and friends league by about 30 FPTs, so it wasn’t pretty either. My son’s smack-talk comment was that I was lucky he didn’t play Tolbert too. That’s the fun of a competitive family league, though.

 

There was a lot of talk about draft strategy in this Bored leading up to game 1, and most of you know my target draft strategy. I’ve pretty much presented it as a best-player-available approach where I’m drafting for value with what I call a concept of bankable fantasy points at least through the 1st nine rounds. In response to Stewburtx8’s question, It occurred to me that my draft strategy does have anther element that dictates who I might pick.

 

Where players from two different positions have approximately the same number of bankable fantasy points, I will almost always draft the position of scarcity. So with there being only about 2 dozen RBs with bankable points, I’ll draft to potentially get three RBs if possible in a 12 team league, particularly if I don‘t have to give up too many FPTs over-all in order to do it. That means while most of the league owners only have 2 RBs with bankable production, at least one owner only has one to start with. And if my RB goes down early or out early in the season (I'm talking Foster here), I still have a fighting chance to win my weekly contest.

 

On Thursday, when I set my line-ups for week two, you will probably see a number of roster changes, and we can talk about strategy involving trading including waiver management and blind bidding strategy. Meanwhile, remember to get aggressive in your weekly roster management, but don’t forget that week one is generally the most over-reacted to week of the fantasy season. So make rational decisions (LOL - even if I don’t) and avoid getting too high or two low based on what happened this last weekend.

 

And yes, one of my proposed trades just went through, and it was a blockbuster in my Dynasty league with Cstriker of this board (who had an easy win this week). He managed to pry Foster away from me by offering me Deangelo Williams, Dez Bryant and his 2013 1st round rookie pick. There’s plenty of risk on both sides and I guess I’m just a sucker for rookie picks. It will either be a thing of genius or the most ill-advised trade I’ll make this year. I’d like your opinion if you care to weigh in!

 

I’m looking forward to your thoughts, not only on the trade, but also drafting strategy or anything else you have on your mind.

 

 

MFM, I do understand your logic behind drafting 3 "bankable" RB's, especially in leagues that start 2 RB's and flex positions. I guess in the age of PPR leagues, I've gotten a little away from this strategy. But I also play in a couple leagues that you only HAVE to start 1 RB, so the emphasis on RB's isn't that great. I too try to just draft the best player available. In my other league (10 teamer) that does start 2 RB's, I had L.McCoy and Fitzgerald as keepers. I went in to the draft planning to grab a RB early, but I just didn't see the value. I drafted Reggie Wayne, Antonio Gates, Brandon Marshall, Jason Witten with my first 4 picks. My RB2 is some combination of Deangelo, FJax, or Benson. I am not a big fan of any of them in PPR, except maybe Fred Jax. In hindsight, maybe I should of grabbed a RB with one of my first couple picks, although I think my WR's/TE's can still carry me.

 

As for your trade, it definitely comes with a lot of risk. While first round picks are nice, a pick in 2013 is 2 years out. I would say the value in that is pretty low right now, but I also always am playing to win now, with a slight eye towards the future. As stated above, I do not like Deangelo Williams much, especially in PPR leagues. On Sunday and in some previous games, Jonathan Stewart has looked like the better RB. It also seemed like the Panthers are willing to turn the offense over to Cam Newton a little, and may not rely as heavily on the run. But to me, the trade really comes down to Arian Foster vs. Dez Bryant. Dez Bryant, when healthy, looks like a physical freak at the WR position. He has Calvin Johnson ability in him in my opinion. The sky's the limit. He just needs to stay healthy, and that starts with the Cowboys not foolishly putting him back as a punt returner. As WeTigers stated, the WR position usually has more longevity than the RB position. With Foster already having hammy issues, this trade could certainly work out in your favor. If Foster comes back and starts putting up numbers like last year, it could work against you. I think you likely win this trade by a lot, or end up losing this trade slightly. It really comes down to the health and longevity of the two key players involved in my opinion.

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

A team with a roster like that is usually why dynasty leagues fall apart. It is a lot of fun to build a dynasty team, but I would want to think I could compete to be one of the better teams in at least 2-3 years, otherwise I'd just be throwing away my money. It is going to be tough for ANYONE to build a roster to compete with that team for several years. I am surprised you can even find replacement owners very easily at this point. It does not surprise me that the league has a lot of turnover.

 

yeah. playoff teams get paid as well as an added payout for 2nd place and then more ofcourse for winning.

 

my goal in this league is simply to make the playoffs and then luck can determine any added payout.

 

unfortunately i am in a division with the ultra stacked team as well as the 2nd best team that fields McCoy, Charles, MJD, Vick Brady Newton and Matt Ryan (can only start 1 ) Tampa Mike and a few other decent WR's.

[madd futher mucker 36]

This week in addition to one 'blockbuster' trade, I made eleven waiver pick-ups in my total of four leagues. So you can believe that I’m insanely active on the WW early. I have no patience to wait on players. In fact I’m guilty of cutting player too early, but I’d rather cut too early than carry dead weight for most of the season.

 

One of my leagues is blind no-bid waivers awarded by worst record first, and three of my leagues have blind bid waivers. I work out a front-end loaded waiver budget and try to stay within it. And I’ll get my share of players without overbidding.

 

Some will be turn out average or below, but I put a lot of effort into identifying VALUE, even at the expense of positional balance, so over the course of the season, I'll get my share of real winners. In my re-draft league, I picked up Cam Newton as my 3rd QB. He'll have his rookie inconsistency, but he already has the look of a leader and he can obviously make plays with both his arm and his legs. There is a future trade in here somewhere, guaranteed. Similarly, with this week’s addition of Hernandez in the team 2 deep keeper, I now have FOUR TEs, exactly equal to the number of RBs on my roster.

 

How do I do it? It starts with constantly trying to improve the bottom of my roster. As all of you know, every year there are at least a half-dozen players who went un-drafted that will finish among the top 15 at their position by the end of the season. I want my share of them, and the earlier I can find them, the better. I pay attention to the injury reports, weekly targets and other stats, but I watch my share of games and try to get a pretty good feel for the break-outs based on what I see. The reason I pulled the trigger on the trade is that Dez Bryant was a monster against two top corners last weekend. Based on what I saw, he is head and shoulders more talented than Austin working against those same two DBs. I see him as a top 5 fantasy stud WR by the end of the season.

 

 

OK, so here’s what I have this week:

 

In Team 1, my Redraft 12 team PPR league, we start 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K; I took a flier and won the Cam Newton sweepstakes ($23 on $100 budget), and also picked up WRs Simpson ($4) and Gibson ($0) - dropping Cook, D Moore, and Karim. My roster is now (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Cutler, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, Wells, M Bush

S Moss, Julio, Amendola, L Moore, Simpson, Gibson

 

My Team 2 Deep Keeper 10 team Standard Scoring team picked up Hernandez and Doucet, dropping Vereen and Briscoe. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; My roster (probably starters in bold):

Schaub, Cutler, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, J Thomas (yes I’m a bit overstocked on Tes right now), Crosby

Forte, Best, Wells, Powell,

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Ford, Gibson, Sanders, Doucet, A Brown, Benn

 

The big trade went down (I gave up Foster for Dez, Deangelo, and a 1st round 2013 rookie pick) in the Team 3 Fat Bastards Dynasty 12 Team PPR - AND I picked up E Graham ($8 against a $200 budget), Branch ($11), Pitta ($0) David Nelson ($5 - yes I still like him), and the SF D ($0). I dropped B Scott, D Moore, Royal, Boss, the AZ D and I put Easley on IR. So my team looks much different than last week. Scoring is 1.5 fpts for TEs and return yds to player and we start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Pitta, Suisham, SF

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, E Graham,

Bryant, S Moss, Amendola, Branch, Mason, Nelson, Roberts

Inactive roster: Cobb, Kaepernick, J White, R Broyles (college), IR Easley

 

Lastly, in my Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR, we start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST. This week I added McCluster ($8 against $100 budget, (RB/WR - yahoo league), and Henderson ($6) and dropped Little and Ringer. Right now my team looks like this (gotta go with the same starters as last week and hope my luck improves):

Big Ben, Bradford, Finley, Cook, Suisham, AZ

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart, McCluster (RB/WR)

Bowe, S Moss, Ford, Julio, Henderson

 

By the way, WhiteWonder made the point that we are in a league with one totally stacked team. In dynasty and deep keeper leagues, I take a very balanced strategy - compete for the play-offs now, but constantly look to improve my team longer term through waivers, trades and by developing young talent. I had a little bad luck this year in that league with my early draft picks 1.03 LeShoure and 1.05 Ryan Williams.

 

All of the aggressive roster management discussed above involves effort - I believe that if you do the research, and know more and do more than your competition, your roster moves will likely pay off with a better fantasy team than they have. Yes, the guy with the stacked team is a very good fantasy player and there’s no question he has a cash cow right now - he's abused his leaguemates for years because he was the best player. As commish, the hardest part of his job is finding fresh raw meat in the offseason to replace the owners who have thrown in the towel.

 

It might take a while, but I really believe that both Wonder and I can catch up with him and even better him, and I’m up for the challenge of doing just that. I say - bring it on!

 

And that’s what I say about Week 2 - Bring it on!

 

Good luck to all of you with this weekend's games. And I’d welcome you to continue the discussion I started about aggressively working the waiver wire, especially any strategies, questions or comments about blind bidding - or any other aspect of weekly roster management.

[stonewall 647]

Good read Madd. I have again employed a strategy that I use every year, particularly in redraft leagues. I am in 2 12-man redrafts that have a revolving waiver beginning with reverse draft position, then changing as owners pick up a ww player.......then going to end of list. Without fail, every year experienced owners will freak out after week one and drop a player of good value/upside because they put up a stinker, and chase after a one hit wonder. This year was no exception. After patiently waiting to get to the front of the ww, I now have a request in to pick up Clark in one league and O. Daniels in another to replace M. Lewis and J. Cook. I waited on TE's in these two leagues (drafted Finley in 2 others), so my RB/WR corps in solid. With the addition of these two TE's, things should be looking even better.

 

Although difficult, and not always productive....sometimes patience is indeed a virtue.

 

I fully intended to cut back on leagues this year, but failed. I actually had cut one back, until a new co-worker informed me that he was in a long-standing 12-man redraft money league with some fantasy sharks, in only his second year. He took last place last year and lost his shirt, not to mention his pride. I agreed to be a silent partner (something I have never done before) and split the league fees, as well as any potential winnings. I schooled him the best I could before his live draft and gave him a tiered draft list as well as some round-specific sleepers. He did O.K., but we will need good in-season management. I made a few post-draft adds and adjustments, and now I believe we can be competitive. I will leave no stone unturned to win this league. Luckily, he drew an early pick at the draft and managed to land AP and VJ.....along with Finley in the late 4th or early 5th. The rest of the draft wasn't memorable, but he did wait on a QB and landed Big Ben and Cutler. We also have Wayne, L, Moore, Branch, O. Daniels and Wells. Luckily we start only 2 RB's, because we are hurting there. He got Lynch and J. Harrison as backups, and I added Redman in case of a Mendy injury (best left on waiver). Hopefully, Owens will have a couple of good weeks so that I can move him for an upside RB. Time will tell.

 

Good luck this week, bro.

[madd futher mucker 36]

After winning Newton on waivers in my Redraft League, another owner accepted my trade of Jay Cutler and Wells for Felix and Peyton Manning. This trade got made because I “offered to take the other guy’s trash to the curb” using what I now call the Wonder Strategy after my friend WhiteWonder who loves this strategy. I could have offered a standard 2 for 1 - Cutler and Wells for Felix - but I’m pretty sure the guy is the type who would have immediately thought two B’s for an A and turned me down. But when you offer to take the other guy’s trash to the curb and do a 2 for 2, many owners analyze it differently - they are more inclined to think what they’re losing on one side of the deal they are more than gaining on the other (in fact, they were thinking of cutting that guy anyway) so they feel like a big winner here. I intend to drop Peyton but I’m not sure who I’ll pick up yet.

 

With basically one open roster spot, my team is pretty formidable for a 12 team PPR:

Brees, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, F Jones, M Bush

S Moss, Julio, Amendola, L Moore, Simpson, Gibson

 

Lots of last minute WDIS decisions this week.

In Friends and Family, I will probably play Foster and Julio and move Bowe to my bench until I see some life out of the Chiefs offense. I picked up the Dallas D against SF and dropped AZ.

 

Obviously, I’m monitoring the Nicks situation in my Deep Keeper league and Dez Bryant in my Dynasty league. But I’m sure the owners I’m going against have their line-up issues as well.

 

Here's hoping we all make the right game-time decisions and win out matches this week.

 

EDIT: I got cold feet with Julio Jones this week against PHIL. Am sitting him for Brandon Gibson in two leagues and Bowe in another.

[madd futher mucker 36]

We have to talk about the Deep Keeper league first, not because I won (and I did), but because I made reference to WhiteWonder's earlier comment about the commish with the "ever stacked" team of Brees, Foster, ADP, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Jason Witten (and Wonder forgot to mention he also has Dez Bryant). I ended my last week’s blog by saying that “it might take a while, but I really believe that both Wonder and I can catch up with him, and I’m up for the challenge of doing so. Bring it on!”

 

Well, Wonder went up against him this week, brought it on and kicked his ass! So congrats to WhiteWonder. FWIW, both of us are now at 2 - 0.

 

The very nice waiver pick-ups from last week paid at least some immediate dividends. I rightly got cold feet on Julio Jones’ match-up against the Philly secondary, and I inserted some of them directly into my starting line-up. But the short term impact of my two trades was negative, as Dez was a scratch and Felix got me very few fantasy points to help contribute to my two "L's" and dislocated his shoulder in the process. The good news is that I traded for Felix and not for Jamaal Charles (Sorry, Charles owners out there).

 

Roster moves also accounted for a win in the Team 3 Fat Bastards dynasty league, where I beat another poster from this board to go to 2 - 0 in that league as well. I plucked and played both David Nelson and Branch to win the close match-up.

 

But that is the end of the good news. With Team 1, my roster move was anything but inspired. One of my many rules (I obviously don’t always follow them) is never to play a player coming off a knee, hammy or groin injury if I have any other choices. But Lance Moore was so confident Sunday before the game - on ESPN2 Sunday morning, Ed Werder said Moore is definitely playing and quoted Moore as saying he was ready to go and it was "time to take the handcuffs off". Damn, coming back from agroin injury or not and given Moore's quote, I just couldn’t pass up the match-up. Yea...right. I could have played ANY other WR on my bench INCLUDING Julio Jones and won this match. In fact, I went to bed after Sunday night’s game thinking I DID win by 0.5 FPT only to discover this morning that a stat correction gave me a loss by 0.7 to drop me to 1-1 in the Team 1 Redraft league.

 

Lastly, my Devery Henderson pick-up also went right into my line-up in my Friends and Family league and put up some nice numbers for me. But it wasn't enough to overcome Felix and Foster (see - I broke that rule again) as I also got beat again - this time by my brother - to go to 0 - 2 in the league and 2 - 2 for my four teams. Not good.

 

Oddly, while my year-to-date record is only 5 - 3, I feel very good about all four teams. I just have to keep doing what I've been doing - aggressive roster management and slightly better line-up decisions than that Lance Moore fiasco. But I hope your weekend went better than mine did.

[Bones40 0]

This was my favorite FF read last year. I'm thrilled to see you doing it again. Lots of valuable insight to be had here, and just plain interesting to boot. Thanks for doing it again.

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

We have to talk about the Deep Keeper league first, not because I won (and I did), but because I made reference to WhiteWonder's earlier comment about the commish with the "ever stacked" team of Brees, Foster, ADP, Ray Rice, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Jason Witten (and Wonder forgot to mention he also has Dez Bryant). I ended my last week’s blog by saying that “it might take a while, but I really believe that both Wonder and I can catch up with him, and I’m up for the challenge of doing so. Bring it on!”

 

Well, Wonder went up against him this week, brought it on and kicked his ass! So congrats to WhiteWonder. FWIW, both of us are now at 2 - 0.

 

 

Thanks buddy

[madd futher mucker 36]

Many of you read my article "A Strategic Approach to Blind Bid Waivers", and I'm sure that some had the belief that there were too many rules. Believe me, setting waiver wire are much like running the household budget. Yes, you can splurge at times, but you have to know you crossed the line and now will have to forego something else later. This week in my Redraft league, I paid $33 for Denarius Moore- more than twice my “maximum” to pick him up after I had drafted him in the first place and then dropped him. But my team is very stout with that final piece, and I should be able to navigate through a whole bunch of weeks without another bid for a while. If I get into a bind, I have only myself to blame.

 

The same goes for with starting roster decisions. I already mentioned that one of my rules for starting players is never to play a player coming off a knee, hammy or groin injury if I have any other choices. I broke that rule TWICE last weekend and it directly led to one of my two losses.

 

I’m having a tough time teaching my 12 year old son the concept of yellow light and red light situations. Breaking rules - even self-imposed fantasy football rules - have the risk of negative potential consequences. I’ve driven through my share of “orange” stop lights, but occasionally I see flashing red and blue lights pull up behind me. Last weekend’s fantasy outcome was a reminder that maybe the old man needs to do a better job of practicing what he preaches.

 

When I post my line-ups with the words “probable starters in bold” that is exactly what they are - probable. After I post my probable line-ups on Wednesday night, I’m in a hunt for information to either validate or discredit my initial decision. I often overlook an essential piece of the puzzle, especially regarding match-ups that I uncover by looking for start-sit information from several other websites. Reading one start-sit column last week was what convinced me not to play Julio Jones against the elite Philly defensive backfield. If I had owned Roddy White, I would have strongly considered benching him as well. Never bench your studs is NOT one of my rules. Or maybe it is a very soft rule. There definitely are times to bench your studs if you have depth.

 

Let’s get to my teams:

 

After picking up Denarius, I’m good with the roster for my 1 - 1 Team 1 Redraft PPR league, even if I’m not happy with my waiver dollar balance . We start 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K; It is (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, F Jones, M Bush

S Moss, Julio, Amendola, L Moore, Simpson, Gibson, D Moore

 

My undefeated Team 2 Deep Keeper 10 team Standard Scoring team also picked up Denarius Moore, Keiland Williams and Taiwan Jones on waivers, dropping Derrick Mason, Early Doucet, and Jared Cook. I don’t know how that happened by waiver priority, but I’ll take it. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; My roster (probable starters bold):

Schaub, Cutler, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Crosby

Forte, Best, Wells, Powell, K. Williams, Tai Jones

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, Ford, D Moore, Gibson, Sanders, Benn

 

I bid $13 against the $200 waiver budget and got the guy I wanted - the Buc’s Preston Parker - for my 2 - 0 Team 3 Fat Bastards Dynasty 12 Team PPR. Where league scoring is 1.5 FPTs for TEs, and return yds go to the player. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. Here’s my team with probable starters bolded (this starting line-up needs more thought):

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Suisham, SF, CLE

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, E Graham,

Bryant, S Moss, Amendola, Branch, Mason, D Nelson, Roberts, Parker

 

Despite the fact that my Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR is winless, I stood pat. But I’m for sure not starting Foster or Felix this week. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST and I‘ll probably start:

Big Ben, Bradford, Finley, Cook, Suisham, DAL

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart, McCluster (RB/WR)

Bowe, S Moss, Ford, Julio, Henderson

 

I was pleased to get Denarious Moore in two of my leagues this week, but he’s not starting on any of my teams. As a rookie, he’s just not ready for Revis Island. But I’ll probably again make some changes to these ‘probable’ starting line-ups. I’m not a great believer in going with your first instincts when there is more study to do. But then again I suppose I could always Axe an Elf.

 

As always I welcome your comments. The great post by Bones40 (among many similar ones earlier) motivates me to keep doing this blog.

 

I expect to have a great week 3 and I hope you do the same.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Based on the goings-on with the 'Bungles', I made two open waiver moves today that only counted against my annual transaction limits in two leagues.

 

It is almost sure that Jerome Simpson will be a healthy scratch this weekend because of his very lucretive part-time job as a dealer. I had him in my starting line-up for Team 1 until I dropped him today for P Parker (Spiderman). Parker goes right into my starting line-up as my sneaky flex play.

 

With today's announcement of the 3 game Benson suspension, I re-acquired Bernard Scott, dropping Jared Cook in Team 4. I've always believed Scott to be more talented than Benson, and soon he will get an opportunity to prove it. And with the opportunity, who knows what will happen when the suspension is lifted. i'm not too excited, because after all it IS Cincy. BTW, today's news definitively proves once again that Mike Brown is officially the worst owner in the NFL.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Continuing the discussion of decisions and consequences, there was an interesting post this week regarding Playing Without a Kicker: http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=389988&st=0&p=4575154&hl=kicker&fromsearch=1entry4575154

Turns out that this was the week I made the decision to do exactly that with team 1, and it paid off, not only with a game-day trade but I survived without Suisham and posted a strong win for my Redraft Team #1. The trade was Felix and Gibson for Dez and Torain, but the net result of the trades over two successive weeks was to trade Beanie Wells, Jay Cutler and Brandon Gibson into Dez Bryant. Until the second half of the Monday night, the longest carry Felix had was 8 yards. Of course then Felix went off for 115 on 14 carries, and Dez was targeted only 4 times against DeAngelo Hall. I’d still rather have Dez.

 

Even though I lost last week to that week’s top score by 0.8 FPT (167.4 to 166.8) this team is beginning to have the look of a Championship level team. Now everything about my team looks studly, and my next goal is to shore up my RB depth. I’ve got some waiver wire ideas for tomorrow, as I will be throwing Preston Parker back on the wire.

 

We make hundreds of roster decisions in the course of a season, and every one is capable of gaining us or losing us the equivalent fantasy production that I lost without playing a kicker. But I won’t be playing without a kicker in week 4, as I’m going up against the league’s top scoring team in a crucial contest.

 

Speaking of roster decisions, I also won in my Team #2 Deep Keeper league. Last week, I indicated my probable starting roster would include Wells and Nicks. We know that Wells was a DNP and after Manningham was a scratch as well, I could envision bracket coverage on Nicks against Philly, and decided to bench him as well. It would have been a good decision, except Benn didn’t do any better. But a win is a win and now I’m 3-0 in that league.

 

I also remained undefeated in my dynasty league where I had the good sense to start David Nelson instead of Preston Parker. There are some interesting by-products about studying rookies and dynasty players year-round. I create my dynasty rankings in January every year just to put these players in valuation perspective for potential trades, but after that I don’t bother to update my rankings. Once the season starts, player valuation is just too dynamic to make it worth very much. I find, however, that there is a distinct advantage in carefully “scouting” rookies, not only for my dynasty and deep keeper teams, but also for my two shallow roster league teams. By pre-identifying with these guys, some like Julio Jones who I drafted are ready to contribute immediately.

 

There is also a disadvantage. Because I identify rookie potential quite well, I end up drafting late some guys like Greg Little and Denarius Moore in my shallow leagues and then dropping them for roster space before they break out - only to have to burn transactions (both shallow league teams have season transaction limits) and waiver money besides. It seems like it happens every year. But in the case of D Moore, I am more than happy to pay the price.

 

It seem like every year I have one team that just doesn’t get out of the blocks. This year it is Team #4, my Friends and Family team. In week 1, I got my azz kicked by my son. Week 2, it was my brother. And week 3, my nephew got me with the high score for the league. Once again my team was the second highest scoring team in the league. Doesn’t matter though - I’m still 0 - 3 in this one.

 

My overall record is 8 - 4 and all four of my teams are works in process. I was at a very boring continuing ed seminar all day, and I had plenty of time with my fantasy worksheets to figure out waiver pick-ups and identify trade offers I’m going to make.

 

One strategy that will now begin to emerge regarding trades is to pick on weakness. Study those teams that are now 0 -3 or 1 - 2 and try to set their starting line-ups for them for the next few weeks. By doing so, you will readily diagnose their problems. And by diagnosing their problems, you will be able to make trades that THEY will WANT to make that will help your team as well. You will only spin your wheels and lose in the long run if you try to ‘win’ every trade, or if you don’t make offers that will genuinely help improve their team as well.

 

As always I look forward to any feedback or comments you might have on week 3 - your team or mine!

[O'ky 0]

Question: When do you guys decide your roster is basically stacked and stop with trade attempts? Do you ever do that? I'm at a point right now after a decent draft and a few good moves where it seems like the smart thing to do is just let the season play out, maybe optimize a little bit for the playoffs.

[madd futher mucker 36]

 

Question: When do you guys decide your roster is basically stacked and stop with trade attempts? Do you ever do that? I'm at a point right now after a decent draft and a few good moves where it seems like the smart thing to do is just let the season play out, maybe optimize a little bit for the playoffs.

 

Welcome to the "bored" at fftoday. It is a great community of posters and that is a good question.

 

Trading closes with week 10 games in most of my leagues. Until then, I can always improve my team. Today I put out something like 8 trade offers. In my same redraft league, one was my Julio Jones for his Sproles. He countered with Brady and Sproles for Brees and ADP. I re-countered with his Brady and Sproles for my Brees and Jahvid Best. I'm guessing he will accept. You may think that this is pretty much a push, but I see less risk for me if he accepts. So the answer is determined by the individual offers that I get and my own creativity as well as league transaction limits.

 

When I post my week 4 rosters Wed or Thurs night, I'll also summarize the offers and waiver activity by team. You will see that, yes, earlier in the season I tend to be more active, but I never stop trying to improve each team.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I told O'ky that my Team #1 Redraft PPR is beginning to look like a championship team. But it is severely in need of RB depth, so it is not there yet. And of course my team is only 2 - 1. I exchanged offers and counter-offers with one owner on a potential mega-deal involving Brady and Sproles for Breese and ???. He wants Peterson, but my concern is Best, so we’re stalemated.

In that league I also offered to another owner Julio for E Graham, but he is too short of RB’s himself to do the deal. A third offer in this league is Julio for Ingram which probably is going nowhere. And unfortunately the owner I’m playing against this weekend is strong enough at RB to do a deal with me, but it doesn't even pay to make an offer until our match is over.

 

I was outbid on an $8 waiver claim for James Casey, who would have had value as either a RB or TE in this league, and would have given me some RB depth. Casey is a true H-back who the Texans are starting to use in special packages. He will get 5 to 10 touches per game, mainly as a receiver out of the backfield, and lined up in the slot in 3 TE sets. But the winning bidder more than doubled my bid. So the only activity was to again pick up Suisham from open waivers at K and drop Torain.

The Team 1 PPR redraft starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Newton, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, M Bush

Bryant, S Moss, Julio, D Moore, Amendola, L Moore, Little, Parker

 

In my Team 2 Deep Keeper 10 team Standard Scoring league, I put out one offer of Forte for CJ2K. The owner is not ready to give up on him yet. Since this is a NON-PPR, I put a waiver claim in on Torrey Smith. Waivers haven’t been opened yet. But I do NOT believe he has value in PPR, and especially in a redraft league. I also submitted a claim for Tim Tebow, dropping Benn. My thought is that it is just a matter of time before Denver moves to Tebow.

This league starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; My probable starters ( bold) will be:

Schaub, Cutler, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Crosby

Forte, Best, Wells, Powell, K. Williams, Tai Jones

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, D Moore, Ford, Gibson, Sanders, Benn

 

In Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR dynasty league where I‘m also still undefeated, I put out an offer for Bilal Powell and after some back-and-forth, I traded David Nelson for Bilal Powell and Jerome Simpson. IMHO, Powell has the most upside of any RB on the Jets team, and would be worth a mid-1st round rookie pick. Obviously Simpson was just a throw-in here, and I promptly threw him back on the WW, activated Randall Cobb, and replaced Cobb on my developmental squad with Powell. I still have one open offer out in this league (A Roberts and a 2012 1st rounder for Jared Cook - who obviously I haven‘t given up on). Our league scoring is 1.5 FPTs for TEs, and return yds go to the player. I lost a blind bid for TE James Casey, who I also missed out on in Team 1. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. Here’s my team with probable starters bolded (this starting line-up needs more thought):

Eli, Freeman, Finley, Olsen, Suisham, TB, SF

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, E Graham,

Bryant, S Moss, Amendola, D Moore, Branch, Cobb, Roberts, Parker

 

Lastly, in my winless Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR , I re-acquired Jared Cook for a $6 bid, who could be split out wide and create a mis-match against most any coverage, so I’m hoping that his offensive role expands. Otherwise I got shot down in an offer to send Foster and Henderson for Ingram and Denarius Moore. Maybe the best deals are the ones that don’t happen. I also offered Bowe for Harvin which is still open. As you know, we start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST and I‘ll probably start (bold):

Big Ben, Bradford, Finley, Cook, Suisham, TB DAL

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart, Scott, McCluster(RB/WR)

Bowe, S Moss, Julio, Ford

Late Edit: I picked up Kendall Hunter for Team 4 (cutting J Ford) on open waivers after no-one bid on him, and added the TB D in the same league.

 

 

You will notice I'm still wary of Foster yet. That may change before the week-end's games. Since the WW bids have not been opened in team 2 and a number of offers are still open, I will probably have a later update. I had lots of extra time sitting in three days of re-certification classes so I was a little extra active this week.

 

I'd be interested in your comments on the trades and trade proposals, and what you think of my strategies so far.

 

And the best to you this weekend!

[O'ky 0]

Do you really think Tebow is going to take over? Even with the great year Orton had last year? I was kind of thinking this is just a slow start with a new offense and Orton and Lloyd could be buy lows?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Do you really think Tebow is going to take over? Even with the great year Orton had last year? I was kind of thinking this is just a slow start with a new offense and Orton and Lloyd could be buy lows?

 

With a worst record first waiver system (my only league without blind bids), I didn't have any realistic hope of landing T Smith on my team 2 Non-PPR Deep Keeper. I did manage to pick up Tebow, just as I expected. This was a pre-emptive pick-up because I don't expect to have any reasonable waiver priority with my W/L record, and there are no transaction limits in this league..

 

Yes I do really expect that Denver will shelve Orton for Tebow right after their week 6 bye week. Orton is playing like crap and is not a good fit for the John Fox system. Denver is not going to compete. Assuming that they lose the next two, the fan base will mutiny unless they play Tebow, and Denver must find out what they have in Tebow regardless. Tebow showed last year that he can at least put up fantasy stats with both his arm and his legs. So expect Tebow to start week 7, and I would steer clear of Orton.

 

I do think Lloyd might be a reasonable buy low given Tebow as QB, but don't pay more than a fantasy WR3 price for Lloyd.

[O'ky 0]

"In my Team 2 Deep Keeper 10 team Standard Scoring league, I put out one offer of Forte for CJ2K. The owner is not ready to give up on him yet. "

 

I'm assuming you think Chris Johnson is a good buy low?

[madd futher mucker 36]

"In my Team 2 Deep Keeper 10 team Standard Scoring league, I put out one offer of Forte for CJ2K. The owner is not ready to give up on him yet. "

 

I'm assuming you think Chris Johnson is a good buy low?

 

Yes, based on a few factors. Both Forte and CJ have crappy o-lines and neither team is running the ball effectively. But in Tenn, Ahmard Hall is a very good blocking fullback and he should be back after this week.

 

I got shot down with this trade offer, but I read in another board where an owner traded him for David Nelson. Now that is what I call a buy low. I just traded David Nelson (and Jerome Simpson) in my dynasty league for Bilol Powell. I guess that's why guys love to trade with me and I'm being called a retard....LOL

[madd futher mucker 36]

This weekend reminded me about just how humbling fantasy football can be sometimes.

I read a post by kujerry: my season is over - 0-4, see u all next yr.

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=391343

 

Believe it or not, that post actually made me feel better. I can't remember ever having four losses in a row, much less opening a season 0 - 4, but, yes it has happened to me. Worse yet, it happened in my Friends and Family league. First, I lost to my second son, then my brother. then my nephew, and now my oldest son got me. So I know exactly how kujerry (or jerrah Jones, for that matter) feels this week. And that was even with Foster in my line-up.

 

I also lost in two other match-ups to go 1-3 for the week. And that hasn't happened to me for a long time either. The sad thing is that all three were winnable - I left too many points on my bench and was let down by players I expected to produce.

 

In my Deep Keeper I'm now 3 - 1 after a heartbreaking loss loast night when blount broke loose for a TD with 3:15 left in the 4th quarter. Leaving Beanie Wells on my bench sure didn't help.

 

My re-draft team that I thought had the feel of a Championship caliber team is now 2-2 after another close loss.

 

Finally the good news: I managed to stay undefeated in my Dynasty league. I'll take it!

 

This post will be short and sweet tonight. The good thing about having multiple teams is that it keeps things in a little bit more prospective. My 0 - 4 team isn't that much different than my 4 - 0 team. But now I've gotta regroup and get back on the winning track.

 

Stay tuned and I hope you had better luck than I had!

[madd futher mucker 36]

I pulled this out from last year as a reminder to myself. It turned out that I'd completely forgotten that I had a similar week four last year, and that one of my teams DID start off 0 - 4. When teams start off 0 - 4, 1 - 3, or even 2 -2, there is a natural tendency for panic to set in. Last year, with my 0-4 Deep Keeper team, I came back strong and was in the play-off hunt up until the last week of the season.

 

Remember, bad luck does happen, variance is a fact of life - but bad luck ultimately = good luck over the long haul.

I have two teams that are not performing to expectations, but after looking at each situation, I decided that my teams are OK, but what I call ‘variance’ and others call ‘bad luck’ is skewing the result.

 

The key is continuing to make smart decisions now, capitalizing on injuries and the reality of other owners' bye week replacements that will create buying opportunities and unique waiver wire values to help get back in the hunt. So if you are in the same position as me, don't get discouraged and avoid hitting the panic button. Just try to objectively analyze what has gone wrong and what your options are - long term (as opposed to crisis mode) - to make improvements.

 

But take full advantage of the teams that DO over-react and DO present you with gifts. I'll try my best to take my own advice to heart.

 

Let's get on to week 5. I sat on the sidelines regarding the RBs that hit the waiver wire. While I believe Ridley to be the best value of the four possible candidates, I was far outbid on the wiver wire for him (The winning bid was $84 in one $100 budget league). And I wasn't that thrilled about Torain and Redman.

 

After seeing part of the Seattle game, I liked what I saw and added Tarvaris Jackson in all of my leagues. He appears to be playing with confidence and he’s making better use of his receivers. I’ll probably even start him on Team 2, because I like his match-up better than either Schaub (with A Johnson out) or Cutler this week. Right now I feel like rolling the dice. I’ll also have to start him on Team 4 if Big Ben can’t go. I’m hoping that this is a harbinger of things to come rather than an aberation.

 

My Team 1 PPR redraft team added Jackson, but this is was in anticipation of trading Brees for another stud RB. This team is now 2 - 2. It starts 1QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flexes RB/WR/TE, D/ST, K. This weeks (probable starters bolded):

Brees, Newton, T Jackson, Witten, Gronkowski, Suisham, SF

ADP, Best, M Bush

Bryant, S Moss, Julio, D Moore, L Moore, Parker, Amendola

 

On my Team 2 Deep Keeper, which is now 3 - 1, I also managed to pick up Pierre Thomas (who was dropped on the wire) for extra RB depth . It is a 10 team Standard Scoring league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 K; My probable starters ( bold) will be:

T Jackson, Schaub, Cutler, Tebow, V Davis, Hernandez, Cook, Lindell

Forte, Best, Wells, P Thomas, Powell, K. Williams, Tai Jones

Nicks, S Rice, Julio, D Moore, Ford

 

Finally I get to my 4 - 0 Team 3, the Fat Bastards PPR dynasty league. My winning streak will probably end this week, because I’ll likely playing three rookie WRs due to bye week issues, especially since return yds count FPTs to the player. Our league also scores 1.5 FPTs for TEs. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K. Here’s my team with probable starters bolded:

Eli, Freeman, T Jackson, Finley, Olsen, Mare, SF

Bradshaw, De Williams, F Jax, McGahee, E Graham,

Bryant, S Moss, Amendola, D Moore, Branch, Cribbs, Cobb, D Baldwin

(I made a mistake and dropped Parker last week; he went to another owner for $40 but I managed to pick up Baldwin for $13).

 

Lastly, my still winless Team 4 Friends and Family Smack Talk Keeper PPR is another team that now has Tavaris, and in this one I’m likely starting him with Bradford on bye, and Ben at least questionable. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, a RB/WR Flex, K and a D/ST and I‘ll probably start (bold):

T Jackson, Big Ben, Bradford, Finley, Cook, Kasay, TB

Foster, MJD, F Jones, Stewart, McCluster (RB/WR)

Bowe, S Moss, Julio, Ford

 

You'll notice that many of my teams are fielding weaker line-ups at WR than I’d like this week, especially since I’m looking to rebound from the horrible performances of last weekend. But it appears I invested heavily this season in WRs having week 5 bye weeks (S Moss, Bryant, Cribbs and Amendola who is out anyway) . So I don’ t have many choices at my WR positions.

 

Even so, I'm slightly optimistic for a more pleasant week 5 result, and I hope yours is even better than mine. If you started out poorly, maybe this post inspired you a little.

 

Please keep the comments, questions and encouragement coming.

[Stewburtx8 67]

You are starting Tavarris Jackson on the road?

 

I don't think I could ever endorse starting Tavarris over Schaub, Cutler, or Big Ben. But in any given week, anything could happen. That's definitely rolling the dice though.