***Official Week 1 NFL Gambling Thread***

[swirvenirvin 25]

I'll look for some props in a bit.

 

Last yr good props and no so good betting wise on NFL. Let's hope for a good yr on both

 

Taking the Saints +4.5 and hoping for a little superbowl hangover from the Packers?

 

From my NFL pickem public is all over GB

[tanatastic 2,062]

I'll look for some props in a bit.

 

Last yr good props and no so good betting wise on NFL. Let's hope for a good yr on both

 

Taking the Saints +4.5 and hoping for a little superbowl hangover from the Packers?

 

From my NFL pickem public is all over GB

 

superbowl champ has won something like 11 straight and the hangover is usually for the team that lost the superbowl. Or at least that was a trend recently. Pack at home looks like a great bet, brees threw a ton of ints last year and the pack are ball hungry.

 

i like minn +8.5 @ SD, I cant wait to get lots of heat for this pick. The chargers start slow usually and mcnabb isnt that bad. In fact hes really good. A guy named Peterson wont hurt them either, chargers stumble out the gate on the way to a huge season.

[phillybear 366]

NFL Football: 0-0

NCAA Football: 14-16-2; -6.8 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 170-136-2; +19.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

NFL for 5 units

New Orleans (+5) LOSER

 

NCAA Football for 5 units

Arizona (+14) LOSER

 

MLB for 5 units

LA Dodgers Gm #2 (+111) CANCELED

Philadelphia (-122) WINNER

Arizona (-176) WINNER

Boston (+128) LOSER

Ch WhiteSox (-152) WINNER

 

Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year, while New Orleans as the defending champs limped into Seattle with injuries and got stomped by the Seahawks in the first round. I think New Orleans has more motivation in this game. About 55% of the public's money is on Green Bay. I really liked what I saw from New Orleans offense in the preseason, and I will take the points with what may be the better team tonight. No meaningful trends for either team.

 

Rematch of last year's Alamo Bowl, where Okl St beat Arizona 36-10, which probably factored heavily into this line. However, Arizona gained more total yards in that game, 370 to 312, in this misleading final score. Arizona had a 43% to 31% edge in 3rd down conversions. But special teams break downs and Arizona losing the turnover battle 4-0 basically is why Oklahoma St won the game. I'll take the point in this natural revenge spot. Nick Foles was projected as a 1st round QB for last year's draft, and came back, so Arizona has a more than capable QB to counter Oklahoma St's offense, along with a star WR in Criner. Mike Stoops 11-0 ATS as a dog in revenge games.

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 14-17-2; -12.3 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 173-137-2; +29.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

[swirvenirvin 25]

NFL Football: 0-0

NCAA Football: 14-16-2; -6.8 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 170-136-2; +19.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

NFL for 5 units

New Orleans (+5)

 

NCAA Football for 5 units

Arizona (+14)

 

MLB for 5 units

LA Dodgers Gm #2 (+111)

Philadelphia (-122)

Arizona (-176)

Boston (+128)

Ch WhiteSox (-152)

 

Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year, while New Orleans as the defending champs limped into Seattle with injuries and got stomped by the Seahawks in the first round. I think New Orleans has more motivation in this game. About 55% of the public's money is on Green Bay. I really liked what I saw from New Orleans offense in the preseason, and I will take the points with what may be the better team tonight. No meaningful trends for either team.

 

Rematch of last year's Alamo Bowl, where Okl St beat Arizona 36-10, which probably factored heavily into this line. However, Arizona gained more total yards in that game, 370 to 312, in this misleading final score. Arizona had a 43% to 31% edge in 3rd down conversions. But special teams break downs and Arizona losing the turnover battle 4-0 basically is why Oklahoma St won the game. I'll take the point in this natural revenge spot. Nick Foles was projected as a 1st round QB for last year's draft, and came back, so Arizona has a more than capable QB to counter Oklahoma St's offense, along with a star WR in Criner. Mike Stoops 11-0 ATS as a dog in revenge games.

Cringer is out tonight

[phillybear 366]

Cringer is out tonight

 

Sticking to my guns.

 

Still, what a weird start to the year, watching a bunch of teams give up so many pick 6's, UCLA missing an extra point to miss on push, and then Maryland getting two miracle defensive scores in the final seconds of both the first and second half to crush my spirit completely. At least Maryland worked out for you.

[swirvenirvin 25]

At least Maryland worked out for you.

Had a weird feeling in that game that somehow something was going to happen to get the cover. Was pissed at that chip shot missed FG, and was ready to go to bed, but stayed up just thinking something weird would happen and didnt want to miss.

 

Good luck this week

[swirvenirvin 25]

Found my record from last year 138-74-4 +34.49 units for props and 32-33-2 -5.19 units for picks

 

2011 NFL 0-1 -1.15 units

 

Ravens(Baltimore) -1.5 (-105) - Baltimore has to win one of these games eventually right?Winner

Seahawks(Seattle) +5.5 (-105)Loser Ted Ginn

Dolphins(Miami) +7 (-115)

Buccaneers(TampaBay) -1.5 (-105) - Revenge from knocking them out last yr, and its not pre-seasonLoser

Bears(Chicago) +2.5 (-105)Winner

[Mike MacGregor 21]

I don't really understand the SF -5.5 (saw it -6.5 yesterday) over SEA, so I agree on that pick. Say what you will about Seattle, but they were a playoff team last year and added some offensive talent this year. They did lose at QB, which is kind of key, but overall they look like an improved team to me. And what has SF done to be favored this much at home? I'm expecting SF to be very poor this year. Like the coach hiring but he's going to break this team down to nothing before he builds it back up.

[Pavlov 0]

I don't really understand the SF -5.5 (saw it -6.5 yesterday) over SEA, so I agree on that pick. Say what you will about Seattle, but they were a playoff team last year and added some offensive talent this year. They did lose at QB, which is kind of key, but overall they look like an improved team to me. And what has SF done to be favored this much at home? I'm expecting SF to be very poor this year. Like the coach hiring but he's going to break this team down to nothing before he builds it back up.

 

You can't bet on Seattle on the road. Ever. They are a terrible road team to begin with and no two members of their offensive line have ever played a regular season snap together. Seriously. Add in crowd noise and that's a disaster waiting to happen.

 

I like the Bills (+6.5) @KC, the Titans (+1.5), the Pats (-7) and I'm taking the over (40) in Oakland/Denver.

[Mike MacGregor 21]

I kind of like WAS +3. They looked good in the preseason running the ball, and the Giants defensive backfield is banged up and will be a work in progress through at least the first part of the season. Giants have some significant downgrades on offense, losing Kevin Boss and Steve Smith from last year. This should be a tough division game and you are getting the home team at +3. The Grossman factor looms large in this one.

[Pavlov 0]

I kind of like WAS +3. They looked good in the preseason running the ball, and the Giants defensive backfield is banged up and will be a work in progress through at least the first part of the season. Giants have some significant downgrades on offense, losing Kevin Boss and Steve Smith from last year. This should be a tough division game and you are getting the home team at +3. The Grossman factor looms large in this one.

 

I thought about this one a lot. I think Washington might be better than expected, but there are just so many question marks that I can't bring myself to pick them in week 1. The Giants almost look like their season is over already, but...yeah. Grossman.

[Mike MacGregor 21]

You can't bet on Seattle on the road. Ever. They are a terrible road team to begin with and no two members of their offensive line have ever played a regular season snap together. Seriously. Add in crowd noise and that's a disaster waiting to happen.

 

I like the Bills (+6.5) @KC, the Titans (+1.5), the Pats (-7) and I'm taking the over (40) in Oakland/Denver.

 

Crowd noise? In San Fran? They don't make too much noise there, do they?

 

The Bills could certainly surprise the Chiefs.

[phillybear 366]

Crowd noise? In San Fran? They don't make too much noise there, do they?

 

Their aggression is limited to gunfights in the parking lot.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I don't really understand the SF -5.5 (saw it -6.5 yesterday) over SEA, so I agree on that pick. Say what you will about Seattle, but they were a playoff team last year and added some offensive talent this year. They did lose at QB, which is kind of key, but overall they look like an improved team to me. And what has SF done to be favored this much at home? I'm expecting SF to be very poor this year. Like the coach hiring but he's going to break this team down to nothing before he builds it back up.

Exactly my thinking on this. Is San Fran really 5.5 better than the Hawks? Not like they did much in the offseason to improve. Maybe its the T. Jackson effect and we'll be banging our heads on Sunday

[swirvenirvin 25]

Prop bets that were offered were pretty weak which I understand since it is week 1. A lot of over under first reception, or first carry which is pure garbage.

 

I found these so far, couple more games to look at.

 

Vernon Davis (49ers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-115) Had two good games vs Seattle last yr[/b]Winner

 

Mike Thomas (Jaguars) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (even) Never been under 4 vs Tenn in 4 games Winner

 

Peyton Hillis (Browns) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Over 79.5 (-115) Cle should be ahead and keep pounding HillisLoser

 

Mike Williams (Buccaneers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-125) Dont think Lions 2ndary improved too much had 6 vs them last yr Push nice toe tapping for this 4th

1.15

Steve Johnson (Bills) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4.5 (-130) Think he is in for a big yr, no Evans so should be only target for FitzpatrickLoser

 

1.2

Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Under 80.5 (-115) Turner does not do good vs physical defenses Bears/Ravens/Steelers

Loser

1.3

Matthew Stafford (Lions) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 20.5 (-140) Meh, we'll see Winner

 

1.3

Heath Miller (Steelers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Under 3.5 (even) Once in 13 games vs Bal has he gone over 3, should be staying in to block more this yr tooWinner

 

1.35

Matt Ryan (Falcons) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Over 235.5 (-125) Atl supposed to air it our more this season, guess we will find out Winner

[Mike MacGregor 21]

Where are you getting the prop bets from swirven?

[WhiteWonder 2,930]

what sites do you guys use?

 

ive used bodog in the past but starting to not like them.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Where are you getting the prop bets from swirven?

I use sportsbook. Out of all the books I have used/ looked at they usually have the most. Takes me a few hours to do them but use all the tools from fftoday (history, position posints for and against). Since you do the projections (I think) would definitely be up your alley.

[swirvenirvin 25]

If either of you guys want to use sportsbook, shoot me a PM we'll get the referral thing going.

[vjr23 2]

If either of you guys want to use sportsbook, shoot me a PM we'll get the referral thing going.

I'll jump in on that if you don't mind. Thanks irv. PM sent.

[phillybear 366]

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 30-28-3; +9.2 units

CFL: 14-8; +23.7 units

MLB: 180-138-2; +61.3597 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

Sunday

 

NFL Football for 3 units

Baltimore (-1) WINNER

Tampa Bay (-1) LOSER

Chicago (+2) WINNER

Buffalo (+5.5) WINNER

Houston (-9) WINNER

St Louis (+3.5) LOSER

Cincinnati (+7)@-130 WINNER

Tennessee (+1) LOSER

Adding: OVER Ten/Jax (38) LOSER

Washington (+3)@-130 WINNER

Carolina (+7)@-130 PUSH

Seattle (+5.5) LOSER

San Diego (-8.5) LOSER

New York Jets (-6)&(-6.5) for 5 units LOSER

 

CFL

Hamilton (+5) for 3 units LOSER

Saskatchewan (+5.5)&(+6) for 5 units WINNER

 

MLB for 3 units

Ch Cubs (-120) for 5 units WINNER

Florida (-103) WINNER

Philadelphia (+120) LOSER

Atlanta (-115) LOSER

Arizona (-188) LOSER

San Francisco (-124) WINNER

Detroit (-252) WINNER

Cleveland (+104) WINNER

Texas (-235) WINNER

LA Angels (-105) LOSER

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 6-8-1; -12.8 units

NCAA Football: 30-28-3; +9.2 units

CFL: 15-9; +25.4 units

MLB: 186-142-2; +66.2397 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

[PackYourNut 47]

With regards to the SF game, I REALLY like SF and here is why.

 

SF QB > SEA QB (Barely)

SF OL > SEA OL

SF RB > SEA RB (By a TON)

SF D > SEA D

SF WR > SEA WR

SF TE > SEA TE (By a TON)

SF is at home!

Harbaugh doesnt like Carrol and will be looking to score as much as possible.(remember going for 2 while up 20+ in the USC/Stan game?)

 

I think maybe the ONLY area where SEA may be better then SF is on Special Teams.

[vjr23 2]

1.2

Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Under 80.5 (-115) Turner does not do good vs physical defenses Bears/Ravens/Steelers

loser

53 yard run by Turner...can only laugh at that one.

 

Couldn't get the Peyton Hillis bet this morning but saw this and added it...

 

Matt Forte (Bears) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play

Rushing+Receiving Yards

Rushing+Receiving Yards 09/11/11(13:00 ET)

Over 107.5 (-125)

[swirvenirvin 25]

1.2

Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Under 80.5 (-115) Turner does not do good vs physical defenses Bears/Ravens/Steelers

loser

53 yard run by Turner...can only laugh at that one.

 

Couldn't get the Peyton Hillis bet this morning but saw this and added it...

 

Matt Forte (Bears) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards - Must Play

Rushing+Receiving Yards

Rushing+Receiving Yards 09/11/11(13:00 ET)

Over 107.5 (-125)

I know glad u got in. A lot of times I can gain some good advantages on these bets by making them Friday. Nice call on Forte

[swirvenirvin 25]

Prop bets that were offered were pretty weak which I understand since it is week 1. A lot of over under first reception, or first carry which is pure garbage.

 

I found these so far, couple more games to look at.

 

Vernon Davis (49ers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-115) Had two good games vs Seattle last yr[/b]Winner

 

Mike Thomas (Jaguars) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (even) Never been under 4 vs Tenn in 4 games Winner

 

Peyton Hillis (Browns) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Over 79.5 (-115) Cle should be ahead and keep pounding HillisLoser

 

Mike Williams (Buccaneers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4 (-125) Dont think Lions 2ndary improved too much had 6 vs them last yr Push nice toe tapping for this 4th

1.15

Steve Johnson (Bills) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 4.5 (-130) Think he is in for a big yr, no Evans so should be only target for FitzpatrickLoser

 

1.2

Michael Turner (Falcons) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play

Under 80.5 (-115) Turner does not do good vs physical defenses Bears/Ravens/Steelers

Loser

1.3

Matthew Stafford (Lions) Total Completions - Must Play

Over 20.5 (-140) Meh, we'll see Winner

 

1.3

Heath Miller (Steelers) Total Receptions - Must Play

Under 3.5 (even) Once in 13 games vs Bal has he gone over 3, should be staying in to block more this yr tooWinner

 

1.35

Matt Ryan (Falcons) Total Passing Yards - Must Play

Over 235.5 (-125) Atl supposed to air it our more this season, guess we will find out Winner

 

Nothing too impressive but in the green 5-3-1 +1.83 units

[PackYourNut 47]

 

I think maybe the ONLY area where SEA may be better then SF is on Special Teams.

 

 

I stand corrected... LOL

 

Seattle SUCKS!

[vjr23 2]

Nothing too impressive but in the green 5-3-1 +1.83 units

Thanks for helping me stay out of the red. 6-2-1 on props, 3-7-1 on games, up a fraction of a unit. I guess I learned a valuable lesson about my game picking ability...

[swirvenirvin 25]

Thanks for helping me stay out of the red. 6-2-1 on props, 3-7-1 on games, up a fraction of a unit. I guess I learned a valuable lesson about my game picking ability...

props are dangerous cause you got 15% juice so really need to pick em

[swirvenirvin 25]

I know these two bets counteract each other but the stats say otherwise we'll see really don't like betting on Brady as he is tough to figure out, but got even odds on his.

Wes Welker (Patriots) Total Receptions - Must Play

Over 5.5 (-135) 6 out of 7 in getting at least 6 receptions vs them Winner

 

Tom Brady (Patriots) Total Completions - Must Play

Under 21.5 (even) Risky as you never know what Brady is gonna do, but last 13 games vs Fins only went over 21 once, last yr fins only had 2 QB go over 21Loser. Puke I remember why I never bet on Brady for props just never know what the game plan is.

[phillybear 366]

MLB: 186-142-2; +66.2397 units

CFL: 15-9; +25.4 units

NCAA Football: 30-28-3; +9.2 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

NFL Football: 6-8-1; -12.8 units

 

Monday

 

NFL Football for 5 units

OVER NE/MIA (46.5) WINNER

Miami (+7.5)@-130

Denver (-3)@-120

 

MLB for 5 units

St Louis (-139)

Atlanta (-220)

NY Mets (-141)

Philadelphia (-185)

LA Dodgers (-115)

San Diego (+129)

Baltimore (+131)

Detroit (-101)

LA Angels (+128)

Seattle (-122)