***Official Week 2 College Football Wagering Thread

[phillybear 365]

Sorry if this was already posted

 

Upcoming schedule

 

Thursday

Oklahoma St (-14) Arizona 66.5

 

Friday

Arizona St (-8.5) Missouri 52.5

Louisville (-4) Florida International 48

[meathook13 1]

Sorry if this was already posted

 

Upcoming schedule

 

Thursday

Oklahoma St (-14) Arizona 66.5

 

Friday

Arizona St (-8.5) Missouri 52.5

Louisville (-4) Florida International 48

 

Leaning over, but I think OK ST puts it on AZ by 24

[phillybear 365]

NFL Football: 0-0

NCAA Football: 14-16-2; -6.8 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 170-136-2; +19.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

NFL for 5 units

New Orleans (+5) LOSER

 

NCAA Football for 5 units

Arizona (+14) LOSER

 

MLB for 5 units

LA Dodgers Gm #2 (+111) CANCELED

Philadelphia (-122) WINNER

Arizona (-176) WINNER

Boston (+128) LOSER

Ch WhiteSox (-152) WINNER

 

Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year, while New Orleans as the defending champs limped into Seattle with injuries and got stomped by the Seahawks in the first round. I think New Orleans has more motivation in this game. About 55% of the public's money is on Green Bay. I really liked what I saw from New Orleans offense in the preseason, and I will take the points with what may be the better team tonight. No meaningful trends for either team.

 

Rematch of last year's Alamo Bowl, where Okl St beat Arizona 36-10, which probably factored heavily into this line. However, Arizona gained more total yards in that game, 370 to 312, in this misleading final score. Arizona had a 43% to 31% edge in 3rd down conversions. But special teams break downs and Arizona losing the turnover battle 4-0 basically is why Oklahoma St won the game. I'll take the point in this natural revenge spot. Nick Foles was projected as a 1st round QB for last year's draft, and came back, so Arizona has a more than capable QB to counter Oklahoma St's offense, along with a star WR in Criner. Mike Stoops 11-0 ATS as a dog in revenge games.

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 14-17-2; -12.3 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 173-137-2; +29.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

[meathook13 1]

NFL Football: 0-0

NCAA Football: 14-16-2; -6.8 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 170-136-2; +19.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

NFL for 5 units

New Orleans (+5)

 

NCAA Football for 5 units

Arizona (+14)

 

MLB for 5 units

LA Dodgers Gm #2 (+111)

Philadelphia (-122)

Arizona (-176)

Boston (+128)

Ch WhiteSox (-152)

 

Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year, while New Orleans as the defending champs limped into Seattle with injuries and got stomped by the Seahawks in the first round. I think New Orleans has more motivation in this game. About 55% of the public's money is on Green Bay. I really liked what I saw from New Orleans offense in the preseason, and I will take the points with what may be the better team tonight. No meaningful trends for either team.

 

Rematch of last year's Alamo Bowl, where Okl St beat Arizona 36-10, which probably factored heavily into this line. However, Arizona gained more total yards in that game, 370 to 312, in this misleading final score. Arizona had a 43% to 31% edge in 3rd down conversions. But special teams break downs and Arizona losing the turnover battle 4-0 basically is why Oklahoma St won the game. I'll take the point in this natural revenge spot. Nick Foles was projected as a 1st round QB for last year's draft, and came back, so Arizona has a more than capable QB to counter Oklahoma St's offense, along with a star WR in Criner. Mike Stoops 11-0 ATS as a dog in revenge games.

 

Hi Philly. Does the fact that Criner is out tonight make a difference for you?

[phillybear 365]

Hi Philly. Does the fact that Criner is out tonight make a difference for you?

 

Bummer. I still like it. But I guess Arizona probably won't win the game. Still think it's an overlay with Ok St defense. They were very good last year, but I was concerned about how many yards they were giving up last week.

[meathook13 1]

Great insight as always Philly. I appreciate you taking the time to write on this thread and others.

[rallo 132]

I'm loving

 

Az St. -8.5

and

Iowa -6.5

 

those are just some early ones that jump out...

 

NFL

 

the Oakland +3 intrigues me... 6-0 in there division last year... although the loss of LT Gallery... could be huge

[phillybear 365]

What can I say. Weeden completes his first 20 passes. Arizona has two trips inside Ok St territory including down to the 5, and gets zero points. Still one score away from a push with the ball first to begin the 2nd half and Foles looking more comfortable in the pocket. But that focking offense is a ticking time bomb that Arizona is a bit fortunate to have slowed down in the 2nd quarter. The Cowboys are going to be unstoppable this year.

[phillybear 365]

Leaning over, but I think OK ST puts it on AZ by 24

 

You were much more in tune with this game than I was. If I steered you in the wrong direction, my most humblest apologies.

[meathook13 1]

Not at all Philly. I had ok st and cashed. I don't blindly follow, but I sure as hell read as much info as I can before placing a wager. And you are a guy who provides excellent info. Keep it up and get em next time.

 

So far it seems the world is on ASU tonight and the line movement reflects it. It went from 7.5 to 8.5 and now 8.5 is even being juiced. I like ASU, but I'm curious where this line is going to settle.

[phillybear 365]

Not at all Philly. I had ok st and cashed. I don't blindly follow, but I sure as hell read as much info as I can before placing a wager. And you are a guy who provides excellent info. Keep it up and get em next time.

 

So far it seems the world is on ASU tonight and the line movement reflects it. It went from 7.5 to 8.5 and now 8.5 is even being juiced. I like ASU, but I'm curious where this line is going to settle.

 

I'm on Ariz St and FIU tonight.

 

The line moved because Dr Bob put out his picks yesterday early evening and Arizona St was a 2 star play. He can still move lines a bit right after his releases. It could move from 7.5 to 9.5 and anywhere in between, but it won't land on a key number at this point. I think it could drop to -8 by game time as a course correction to the line move from yesterday.

[phillybear 365]

For the record, for information, and also why some games had line moves yesterday..

 

Dr Bob

3 stars: Washington St

2 stars: Arizona St, Auburn

Strong Opinions: Oregon St, Kansas, OVER Kan/NoIll, Cincinnati, Vanderbilt, Central Florida, Michigan.

 

His only game last week was West Virginia, which got cancelled. His strong opinions went 2-5, which sucked.

[phillybear 365]

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 14-17-2; -12.3 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 12-8; +13.7 units

MLB: 173-137-2; +29.6597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

NCAA Football

Florida International (+3)@-115 for 5 units WINNER

Arizona St (-9.5)@-120 for 5 units LOSER

Adding: Arizona St 1st H (-6) for 5 units PUSH

 

CFL

Calgary (-3) for 5 units WINNER

Adding: Calgary 1st H (-1.5)@-105 for 5 units WINNER

 

I’ll be editing this post later for lines and additional stuff. I don’t have all my notes and stats, but I have some random thoughts about tonight’s games bouncing around in my head. But with the start to the year I've had, it may be stuff to ignore.

 

Florida International is a program on the rise. The went bowling last year, and won their game. The return a group of experienced skill position players in QB Wesley Carroll, RB Darriet Perry, and do-it-all WR T.Y.Hilton, who had 283 all purpose yards last week. Flor Internation pounded what figures to be a competitive Sun Belt team last week in North Texas, and the final score of 41-16 was somewhat deceiving in that North Texas scored their points on two defensive scores and a safety. So FIU’s very solid defense gave up zero points. Was it really that long ago that Louisville was a dominant force in college football and had a ridiculous home field advantage under Bobby Petrino? I remember maybe 4 years ago, maybe 5, when I took a top notch Sun Belt team in Middle Tenn St at Louisville with 30 points. Now, they are laying around 3.5 vs Flor International. Louisville is on their 5th starting QB in 5 years, have an entire offensive line of brand new starters. Louisville is coming off a turnover filled win over Div II Murray St, I think each team turned it 4 times, a game if I recall correctly Louisville didn’t even score in the 2nd half. Louisville has a decent RB in Victor Anderson, and that would seem to be Louisville’s best bet to score in this game. But FIU has a pretty solid defense that should be able to compete in the trenches and I think they can pull off the upset, but I’ll take the points. Since more money is coming in on Louisville and the line keeps dropping, the game sets up like a trap. I was hoping that by the time I get home from work the line rebounds to +4, but it not, I’ll take any points I can get.

 

I had Arizona St last week, and they gave up the cover by giving up a pair of 4th quarter TDs to get backdoored, but they did win by 34 against Div II UC Davis. Arizona St features a solid all around team that looks better offensively and defensively than Missouri. I watched both these teams play last week, and unless their abilities dramatically change, Jekyll and Hyde, to this week, Arizona St is a much, much better team. Arizona St has a veteran offensive line that opens up gaping holes for the stable of RB to pound through, which I will be counting on. Missouri won ugly last week over Miami OH. Every time I looked up, Miami had moved the ball to mid field and beyond, but just could not cash in their opportunities in Missouri territory and turn them into points. I think Missouri’s secondary is vulnerable, and the defense will likely be missing a couple of key defensive starters that got injured last week (ones a LB and one is a DE). While James Franklin is a dual threat in replacing Gabbert, he looked very shaky in the pocket and threw for 129 yards while running for 72. And Missouri just couldn’t get their best receiving options involved in the game. While I think Missouri’s defense is pretty decent, I don’t like what I was seeing from their offense, and I don’t see why Arizona St can’t win by double digits. Missouri went 10-3 last year, and went 2-3 SU on the road. Last year Arizona St blew out everybody at home except for a 4 point loss to Stanford and an 11 point loss to Oregon.

 

Rematch from 4 days ago, when Edmonton went to Calgary and surprisingly beat the Stamps. It’s kind of odd how in the CFL you get these head to head games two weeks in a row, but it’s rare when one team sweeps both games. Calgary was arguably playing the best ball in the CFL prior to last week, and may have suffered a let down from beating Montreal. I’ll take Calgary in a revenge spot over a still banged up Edmonton team that might get a WR or two back this week from injury, but with no time to practice in between games, I can’t see how they would get their timing back. Edmonton was running some interesting schemes at the start of the year and caught teams by surprise, but enough film has been compiled and teams are starting to figure them out.

 

MLB for 5 units

Florida (-122) WINNER

Added: Philadelphia (-121) WINNER

St Louis (-140) WINNER

Arizona (-167) WINNER

OVER Bal/Tor (9.5)@-110 LOSER

Tampa Bay (+106) WINNER

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 15-18-3; -13.3 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 14-8; +23.7 units

MLB: 178-138-2; +49.4597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

[jkg31885 0]

Fl. International 10 units tonight +3.5

 

NCAA 5-3; + 10.1 units

 

Have not been posting I am going to attempt to post my picks this year.

[swirvenirvin 25]

College YTD 5-11 -4.18 units

 

ArizonaSt -10 (-105)Loser

 

ULLafayette +8.5 (-105)Winner

UCLA -21 (-105)

Florida -23.5 (-105)Winner

Georgia +3 (-115)Push

MinnesotaU -20 (-105)Suck Loser

Oregon -26.5 (-105)Winner

NIllinois -4.5 (-105)

Auburn +5.5 (-105) Winner

WashingtonU -5.5 (-105) Winner, so direct gave me all sports channels was watching this on Root, almost lost it when Wash punter had a punt for -5 yards, blocked XP saved the day

MTennSt +11 (-105)Loser

FloridaAtl +33 (-105)Loser

CMichigan +10.5 (-105)Loser

PennSt +10 (-105)Loser

WashingtonSt -14 (-105)Winner

Iowa -6.5 (-105) Loser

 

1.4 units and posted in game of year

NotreDame -3 (-105)

[meathook13 1]

FIU +3. Better athletes in my opinion especially at the skill positions. Good luck all.

[The Moz 69]

PB is Bouve's alias

[meathook13 1]

Who was BOUVE's team...Dolphins?

[meathook13 1]

Looking good with FIU Philly.

[phillybear 365]

Looking good with FIU Philly.

 

Eh, I've lost a number of games in the final minutes so far this year, so I don't feel comfortable with it yet. Not even close.

 

I have the Marlins up 11-1 in the 4th inning, and I refuse to chalk that up as a win. Never, never, never stop worrying until the game is officially over. I play a lot of games in a lot of sports, and I've seen a lot of shenanigans that will make your hair go gray really fast.

[phillybear 365]

PB is Bouve's alias

 

Hey, I'm only 0-1 in the NFL so far. That's jumping the gun already.

[meathook13 1]

ASU all over the place. Lets roll devils!!!!

[GoldenRhino 0]

Last week I went 3-0 on this site. For about the 1st month of the season, I usually bet the same amount on all the games I play. Only the ones I really like are more (* = usually double). Here's the plays I've already made:

 

NCAA

TCU + 1 (*)

Purdue - 1' (*)

Indiana + 7

BYU + 7

Duke + 20'

Toledo + 18

 

NFL

NY Jets -5' (* maybe more...LOVE THE JETS!!)

Atlanta - 2'

Atlanta/Chicago O40'

Detroit + 1'

Pitt + 1'

Philly/St Louis O44

Houston - 9

Arizona - 7

 

Good Luck

[phillybear 365]

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 15-18-3; -13.3 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 14-8; +23.7 units

MLB: 178-138-2; +49.4597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

 

Saturday. Subject to change. Will add more games later.

 

NCAA Football for 5 units

Oregon St (+20.5) LOSER

San Diego St (-9.5) LOSER

Auburn (+5.5) WINNER

Cincinnati (+4.5) LOSER

Hawaii (+5.5) LOSER

California (-6) LOSER

Alabama (-10) WINNER

Washington St (-14) WINNER

Upgrade: Temple (-15) WINNER

Kansas (+4.5) WINNER

OVER NoIll/Kans (62.5) WINNER

BYU (+7.5) WINNER

UAB (+24) LOSER

Vanderbilt (-2.5) WINNER

Central Florida (-7.5) WINNER

Notre Dame (-3)@-115 LOSER

Adding: Utah (+7.5) WINNER

Upgrade: San Jose St (+20.5) WINNER

Adding: San Jose St 1st H (+12)@-105 WINNER

 

NCAA Football for 3 units

Central Michigan (+10.5) LOSER

Toledo (+17) WINNER

Adding: North Carolina (-10) LOSER

Tulsa (-12) WINNER

TCU (+1) WINNER

 

NCAA Football for 1 unit

Adding: Iowa (-6.5) LOSER

 

MLB for 5 units

Arizona (-150) WINNER

LA Dodgers (+138) WINNER

 

Edit:

NFL Football: 0-1; -5.5 units

NCAA Football: 30-28-3; +9.2 units

Subset: NCAA FB: 6 units plays or higher: 3-2-1; +4.25 units

CFL: 14-8; +23.7 units

MLB: 180-138-2; +61.3597 units

Subset: MLB: 10 unit plays: 103-68; +95.88 units

WNBA: 9-10; -1.6 units

[vjr23 2]

Just for the sake of bumping/wrapping a thread that hasn't seen a post since 6:40 this morning, which is quite disappointing...

 

Nice week philly.

 

That ND-Mich game was a pisser (I was obviously on ND). I know ND is polarizing, and I've never been on either side of that spectrum, mostly because I just don't care about a school that gets so much pub but hasn't been championship relevant for as long as I can remember, but watching them GIVE that game away at every opportunity sure made up my mind on which side I fall on. Guess I should have passed on that game and pulled the trigger on the Northwestern St. +49 @ LSU that was taunting me all day...

[GoldenRhino 0]

Last week I went 3-0 on this site. For about the 1st month of the season, I usually bet the same amount on all the games I play. Only the ones I really like are more (* = usually double). Here's the plays I've already made:

 

NCAA

TCU + 1 (*) WON

Purdue - 1' (*) LOST - DAMN, PURDUE MUST REALLY SUCK THIS YEAR!!!

Indiana + 7 WON

BYU + 7 WON

Duke + 20' LOST - WHAT THE HELL WAS I THINKING???

Toledo + 18 WON

 

NFL

NY Jets -5' (* maybe more...LOVE THE JETS!!)

Atlanta - 2'

Atlanta/Chicago O40'

Detroit + 1'

Pitt + 1'

Philly/St Louis O44

Houston - 9

Arizona - 7

 

Good Luck

 

Went 4-2 on NCAA. Not exciting, but better than losing. Hope tomorrow is better.

[swirvenirvin 25]

Great game but ND sucks glad I got that line for next week at +8.5 for Sparties