How much of fantasy football is luck?

[jgcrawfish 232]

you're full of sh!t if you think it's skill. there's some skill to it, being more informed, having better instincts, quicker on waiver wire, etc. it's mostly luck. pure uncontrollable circumstance.

[jerryskids 5,434]

I like the poker analogy. Over the course of a career, with enough leagues/seasons, a more-skilled owner will tend to win more. And any one season is like a single poker tournament -- skill increases your odds of winning, but a lot of stuff has to go your way to win the whole thing.

 

I don't think it is possible or even relevant to put a number on the percentage of luck vs. skill. The important thing is that skill has some impact, or perhaps more importantly, we perceive that our skill has some impact. So we ("we" being the hard-core folks who post on sites like this) enjoy the thrill of hoping that luck goes on the side of our skill.

[GreenTD 56]

you "knew most people would say" its skill and you confirmed that after like 7 posts?

 

 

I think you can break it down. there is a lot more luck than I think a lot of people wan't to admit, especially those that put a lot of time into it. I've often heard FF compared to Poker by people on these boards and that is crazy. (side note: there is more luck involved in poker than die hard poker nerds wan't to admit as well)

 

draft prep = skill

pinpointing breakout players and guys to avoid = skill

the draft itself is also skill. navigating the draft, knowing other owners tendencies, starting runs and not getting on the wrong end of them, etc etc.

In season roster management = skill. starting the right players, waiver wire pickups and all that. Trading as well.

 

Everything else is luck. much of what the players do on the field is luck. The random guy going off on you is luck or your perfectly picked studs with good match ups laying an egg. The fact that you might not play any opponents when they have bye week issues.... or you might play a guy every week that has several byes. Fantasy scheduling is all luck.

Injuries are luck

 

Agree with WW on most of his points.

 

The thing I noticed most this year was scheduling is largely based on luck. I've seen teams that were #1 or #2 in points scored with losing records & at the bottom of the standings. One of my teams started out out 0-4 & it was my favorite team post-draft. Couldn't figure out was wrong & noticed I had the most points scored against. Now I'm 6-5 & tied for the division lead with the most points scored against but the most points scored by more than 100+ points.

 

Injuries are another thing based on luck. Miles Austin had a great matchup on Thanksgiving against the Redskins secondary & ends up getting hurt early & gets 0 points for 2 of my opponents this week. Lucky for me & unlucky for my opponents.

 

I think the word skill in FF is misinterpreted. The word that separates the die-hards from the casual player, is preparation. Studying free agency & the NFL draft, researching all 32 teams & doing countless mock drafts leading up to the real thing is just the beginning. Following trends & injury reports during the season while upgrading your team via trades or the waiver wire is an integral part of team management.

 

Putting all this together will give you an edge over your competition more times than nought, but you still need to have a little "luck" on your side.

[chroniciguana 13]

you're full of sh!t if you think it's skill. there's some skill to it, being more informed, having better instincts, quicker on waiver wire, etc. it's mostly luck. pure uncontrollable circumstance.

 

On this issue, suggesting someone is "full of sh!t" should be an automatic disqualifier. You put "there's some skill to it" a distant second to "pure uncontrollable circumstance." Therefore, in your world, a team randomly drafted should be equal to or better than a team selected by a fully functioning human-type brain. A lineup determined by a coin flip, in this same world, gets the clear nod over one that's the product of a little bit of thought. You are pretty much telling us you're no match for a chimp armed with a computer keyboard. And we're supposed to take "you're full of sh!it" seriously?

 

If this little game is "pure uncontrollable circumstance," then why are you here? There's probably a dice rolling forum out there just waiting to crown you queen.

[Agamemnon 2]

I'd put it at 50% luck and 50% skill. The knowledgeable football fan is well prepared for his draft and does well from the fifth round on; he's decisive with weekly matchup decisions and manages the waiver wire, improving the roster core and planning for bye weeks.

 

Things you can't control:

1) We draft on-line and you don't know the draft order until you log-in. The best-made draft plans can go up in smoke depending on your draft position.

2) Player injuries - A guy in our long-established 14-team league took MJD with the 12th pick in Round One; when MJD finally reported to camp, we all agreed it was a "steal"...

3) In-game player injuries - You start a guy who has a great match-up and has practiced all week, only to have him leave the game in the first quarter and not return.

4) Points Against - Thru eight weeks, my team was #2 (of 14) in points scored but a runaway #1 in points against, with a record of 2-6. It was ridiculous; had I played every team every week my record would have been 71-33! You can't control points against and can only hope things even out over the course of a season.

 

I could go on, but those are the biggies; generally the prepared owner can over-come most obstacles and make the playoffs, but this game we all love is at least 50% luck...

[tts42572 0]

I think this pretty much sums it up....agree totally.

 

I've been in my main 14 team league 21 years. I've made the playoffs every single year (we take 8 out of 14 teams). I pretty much know for a fact that no other owner has accomplished that in this league. And no, it's not full of girls and kids....

 

Do I win it every year.....No. Although, I have been in the finals 5 consecutive years and have won it all twice.

 

Is it luck that I've made the playoffs 21 straight years? I tend to think not...I try to draft well, minimize risk, make good trades...good lineup decisions, good free agent pickups, etc...

 

There is a lot of luck involved week to week.....even season to season sometimes. Sometimes it feels like 90% luck....Sometimes it feels like 90% skill...You really can't put a consistent percentage on it because there are just way too many factors.

 

But you can do things over the long haul to increase your odds...if even by a few percentage points.

 

 

 

 

I like the poker analogy. Over the course of a career, with enough leagues/seasons, a more-skilled owner will tend to win more. And any one season is like a single poker tournament -- skill increases your odds of winning, but a lot of stuff has to go your way to win the whole thing.

 

I don't think it is possible or even relevant to put a number on the percentage of luck vs. skill. The important thing is that skill has some impact, or perhaps more importantly, we perceive that our skill has some impact. So we ("we" being the hard-core folks who post on sites like this) enjoy the thrill of hoping that luck goes on the side of our skill.

[WR Guru 31]

I've been saying forever that it's 50/50 luck vs skill when you're in a straight-up head-to-head format and I've have yet to hear an argument to make me feel any differently.

 

There is no defense in fantasy football and you simply have no impact - none, zero - on the scoring output of your opponent. You can certainly improve your odds by consistently scoring in the top third of your league each week (that's the 50% skill), but if you're going up against the highest or second highest scoring team several times in a season, your skill just got neutralized. And that's without even discussing the luck factor of injuries, which is a whole separate issue.

[juha10 0]

Does not matter all that much how prepared you are and how much studying you do...

 

It's 70-90% luck... Does not matter who you have, who you start it's pretty much complete luck.

 

Teams that have no clue and can't score points win and teams that are better by a wide margin lose.

 

Head to head is just about all luck with minimal skill involved but keep fooling yourself about that...

[Giants Fan 85]

1353907632[/url]' post='4907975']

Does not matter all that much how prepared you are and how much studying you do...

 

It's 70-90% luck... Does not matter who you have, who you start it's pretty much complete luck.

 

Teams that have no clue and can't score points win and teams that are better by a wide margin lose.

 

Head to head is just about all luck with minimal skill involved but keep fooling yourself about that...

 

Losing poker players often make the same argument.

[juha10 0]

Losing poker players often make the same argument.

 

HAHAHA nice comparing fantasy football to poker. ahhh it's a little different set of variables there...

 

Thanks for the laugh. Fantasy football is an educated guess. poker is based on math and percentages and odds

 

Solid evidence and percentages and stats in poker to make decisions on. you can look all you want in fantasy football and they guys goes out hurt, that's called bad luck.

 

guy just plain blows when he has an easy easy match up, that's called bad luck...

 

Guy who never does anything goes off that's called luck... Holding 2 cards and knowing the percentages of your hand before the flop and odds of making a hand is not luck. Seeing the flop and knowing the odds of your hand is not luck...

 

SO you may want to rethink your post as it's pretty much wrong

[Giants Fan 85]

1353908446[/url]' post='4907984']

HAHAHA nice comparing fantasy football to poker. ahhh it's a little different set of variables there...

 

Thanks for the laugh. Fantasy football is an educated guess. poker is based on math and percentages and odds

 

Solid evidence and percentages and stats in poker to make decisions on. you can look all you want in fantasy football and they guys goes out hurt, that's called bad luck.

 

guy just plain blows when he has an easy easy match up, that's called bad luck...

 

Guy who never does anything goes off that's called luck... Holding 2 cards and knowing the percentages of your hand before the flop and odds of making a hand is not luck. Seeing the flop and knowing the odds of your hand is not luck...

 

SO you may want to rethink your post as it's pretty much wrong

 

Gotcha. No luck involved in poker. All math.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Gotcha. No luck involved in poker. All math.

 

Oh man, reminds me of my poker days. I can't count the number of big hands I lost where I was "way ahead" in the odds to win.

[Giants Fan 85]

1353910723[/url]' post='4908001']

Oh man, reminds me of my poker days. I can't count the number of big hands I lost where I was "way ahead" in the odds to win.

 

I've lost $1000 this year with pocket aces. Both times I was 82 percent or better to win the hand when I went all in.

[tbone138 6]

When I win, it is pure skill. When I lose, it is 100% bad luck.

[illini9825 7]

There is some skill in selecting a good team, but you need a lot of luck to win the championship.

[murf74 461]

A lot of luck in starting lineups....can't count number of times this year my starter doesn't make it thru game without injury and sits out. Did I not have enough skill to see that coming? Or just bad luck? Scoring 2nd highest weekly score and losing 3 times this year...was I not skillful enough those weeks?

 

Your kicker sscores 5 extra points while your opponent kicks 2 20 yd fgs and you lose by a point.

 

Your qb throws bomb to the one and rb carries it in on next play....