Hedging WR/RB As A Lineup Strategy

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Some friends and I were discussing the viability and benefits of hedging a RB1 with a WR1 or 2 from the same team – particularly from offenses with good run/pass splits. Evans and Martin begat the discussion. The ability to own more then 50% of a team's touches any given week seems incredibly valuable. It also has an interesting 'handcuff' dynamic, in that if either player were to lose time or reps the other could or would see a slight uptick in usage. In reviewing draft ADP and transaction history I feel it's a very sneaky (and inexpensive) way to mitigate scoring risk.

 

Although I've yet to deep dive on the combined scoring average of RB1's and their receiving brethren week over week (and the correlation to a team's run / pass splits), I glanced at the teams with the most even splits and found owning the RB1 and one of the top pass catchers could be a very solid draft/ownership strategy. Interestingly enough this seems independent of offense rank:

 

Lowest pass percentage teams:

 

NY Jets 57.19% – Ivory / Decker / Marshall (As an Ivory owner I traded for Decker week 10 to take advantage of this concept)

Kansas City 56.38% – RB of the week / Maclin / Kelce

Dallas 56.20% – McFadden/Dez (If Romo was still in one piece I think this is a nice combo)

Arizona 56.15% – CJ2K/Johnson/Fitz/Brown

Cincinnati 54.53% – Bernard/Hill/Green/Eifert

Chicago 54.38% – Forte/Langford / Jeffery/Bennet/Miller

Tampa Bay 54.27% – Martin / Evans

St Louis 54.02% – Gurley / Austin (Who's quietly putting together a top 15 PPR season. He may be a sneaky 4th or 5th rounder next year.)

Minnesota 53.57% – Peterson / Diggs (?) – In 10 or 12 team leagues I won't condone owning a MIN WR.

Buffalo 51.77% – McCoy / Watkins

Seattle 51.14% – Rawls/Lynch/Baldwin

Carolina 48.85% – Olsen/Stewart

 

What's rather interesting is that the opposite may be true for teams featuring the highest percentage pass to run plays – regardless of combined FP scored by the RB and top pass catcher for the team. As you could expect – 4 of the top 5 teams have RBs with high PPR only value, but also lack a tangible week to week combination like the above.

Highest pass percentage teams:

 

Detroit 66.75% – Riddick/Johnson (Bell and Abdullah are non factors in 10 and 12 team leagues)

Miami 65.98% – Miller/Landry(One of three exceptions from this list)

San Diego 65.76% – Woodhead/Gates/Allen

New England 64.92% – Gronkowski/Edelman/Blount/Lewis/White (I really like the Gronk, White hedge/handcuff until Edelman returns)

Cleveland 64.07% – Johnson/Barnidge

Baltimore 64.05% – ?/Forsett/Johnson – Is there a weekly pass catcher in BAL anyone trusts?

Jacksonville 63.95% – Yeldon/Robinson(RB)/Robinson(WR)/Hurns/Thomas (Exception #3)

New Orleans 63.74% – Cooks/Ingram/Hightower

Indianapolis 63.12% – Gore/Hilton

Oakland 62.53% – Murray/Cooper (Another possible exception – although it feels like when this offense is struggling everyone struggles. More so then any other team.)

The argument against this concept would be: If/when a team is struggling offensively, everyone struggles. Save for a just a few defenses, most will stop one category (pass / rush) better then the other – sometimes considerably so. In theory, this would provide an opportune time to 'hedge' your starter – the un-benchable RB1 or WR1 who is forecasted to see a decrease in points with their opposite position. This concept creates an opportunity for an owner struggling to assemble a viable lineup to snag a FA or get a player in their lineup who would have 'sat' had they not owned the numero-uno's opposite from the same team. The other obvious challenge of course is BYE week(s).

When I have a moment I'm going to explore this idea a bit further. Specifically comparing the ADP and rank of a team's top two or three scoring players and the correlation to run/pass ratios. I also have a suspicion the rank of a team's QB may come into play as well. There's a wealth of data available to plot.

But I believe, at least initially, given how catastrophic injuries (or early round busts) can be to a fantasy team and with the gap in ADP of most RB1 and WR1/2 or WR1 and RB2/3 teammates this could be a sneaky way to approach next year's draft.

Community thoughts?

[IMMensaMind 460]

This is one of the better and more thoughtful topics I've seen here.

 

This is somewhat similar to the "offset the opponent's best player" topics (like I'm probably going to do with Lockett against his Wilson).

 

Outside of the obvious 'select the players at each position which you believe will out score the rest of your choices', this is the type of strategy that makes your team a consistent scorer, and hard to knock out in the playoffs - if it's done correctly.

 

Like attempting to offset the opponent's best player with his paired QB or WR, the strategy makes particular sense on the edges, when you believe that your team is better than your opponent's and you want to ensure production.

 

Conversely, I can imagine cases where the strategy should be avoided (a dominant team on which you have the RB, and you expect them to run out the clock in the 2nd half, and do not want to start the WR as a result).

[cyclone24 1,836]

This is pretty outstanding...im going to look into some numbers on this as well.

[IMMensaMind 460]

The other thing to consider is how easy it is to predict the run/pass split before the beginning of the year? I can see this strategy employed during the season through trade strategy - as you did - but instituting it into a draft strategy? Perhaps around the edges, to break ties between two players you're considering.

[cyclone24 1,836]

The other thing to consider is how easy it is to predict the run/pass split before the beginning of the year? I can see this strategy employed during the season through trade strategy - as you did - but instituting it into a draft strategy? Perhaps around the edges, to break ties between two players you're considering.

Id imagine targeting teams with as close to a 50-50 split would be ideal for this yes?

[shorepatrol 1,741]

 

Conversely, I can imagine cases where the strategy should be avoided

Very well thought out, but to many variables to be effective I believe

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Very well thought out, but to many variables to be effective I believe

 

Variables such as?

[smash-a-mus 6]

I'm doing something similar with my QB and kicker. Big ben + Boswell. Last week is a perfect example of this where boswell went for 16 points when big ben had a down day. Lack of TDs lead to FGs.

[DrG 94]

I've seen a few articles on this here and there. Certainly related to stacking. The other consideration is that you also wind up hedging against upside. What you would want to find out is the consistency rating for the duo vs other duos and a way to compare vs single players.

[DrG 94]

Here's one:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/08drinen-sameteam.php

 

A bit dated, but was interesting

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Here's one:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/08drinen-sameteam.php

 

A bit dated, but was interesting

 

Great share mate.