Bills04 46 Posted September 18, 2019 Bills04 Asked: Full-point PPR league. I've currently got D. Montgomery, CHI as my RB2, and LAR RB2 M. Brown as my FLEX, with JAX WR3 D. Westbrook as my WR2. My bench is WAS RB1 ADP and ATL RB1 D. Freeman, WAS WR? T. McLaurin, and BAL TE M. Andrews. D. Freeman has done nothing vs. PHI in the past, and he split carries with Ito Smith last week.. I'm considering rolling with ADP as my RB2, until the CHI RB situation sorts itself out (only 7 touches in week one). At WR, with JAX's OLT Robinson OUT, I'm leery of playing anyone from JAX on the the road at HOU. I'm considering switching my WR2 to McLaurin, who also has a higher ceiling. At FLEX - I will likely change that out to BAL TE M. Andrews, assuming he is Active. Axe Elf said: Start Freeman and Flex McLaurin, keeping Westbrook at WR. Bills04 said: BAL TE M. Andrews is ACTIVE, so I'm FLEXing him. WR2 will be McLaurin; JAX O/L is banged up. Axe Elf said: My point was that it's a bad idea to flex a TE RESULTS: Freeman = 9.4 points Westbrook = 1.3 points Montgomery = 13.8 points Andrews = 25.2 points GREAT advice, Axe Elf.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted September 18, 2019 Just because you're facing a 5x raise on a paired board and choose to draw to your inside straight doesn't mean it was a good decision--even if you hit it. It's a bad idea to flex a TE, even if it occasionally pays off. In the long run, it won't--just like you'll go broke sooner when you play against the odds in poker. But good poker players appreciate the variance, even if it goes against them at times--because it's the only thing that keeps the pond stocked with fish. Swim on... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FantasyRetard 49 Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, AxeElf said: Just because you're facing a 5x raise on a paired board and choose to draw to your inside straight doesn't mean it was a good decision--even if you hit it. It's a bad idea to flex a TE, even if it occasionally pays off. In the long run, it won't--just like you'll go broke sooner when you play against the odds in poker. But good poker players appreciate the variance, even if it goes against them at times--because it's the only thing that keeps the pond stocked with fish. Swim on... When someone's asking for fantasy advice for a week, they are not thinking about "the long run". I second the nomination for Imbecile of the Week. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,480 Posted September 18, 2019 Lol I love this post. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted September 18, 2019 1 hour ago, FantasyRetard said: When someone's asking for fantasy advice for a week, they are not thinking about "the long run". I second the nomination for Imbecile of the Week. In this case, "the long run" refers to the collective sum of making the right decisions, even when they have unfavorable outcomes. It has nothing to do with any given time frame. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FantasyRetard 49 Posted September 18, 2019 53 minutes ago, AxeElf said: In this case, "the long run" refers to the collective sum of making the right decisions, even when they have unfavorable outcomes. It has nothing to do with any given time frame. Yes, having been born yesterday, I didn't understand that. The problem with your response is that his question did not ask for a response based on "the long run." His question focus on specific matchups. Plus, he's talking about players who are not must-starts (like Kelce or McCaffrey), but guys who are started based on their matchups, like Montgomery, McLaurin, or Andrews. The problem with your response was that he wanted feedback on a particularly time frame, not based on what will work over the long haul. I hope you are now clear on this. Future note, if I ask for roster advice, I'm interested on that particular week and those matchups. I think I can figure out the long haul just fine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted September 19, 2019 3 hours ago, FantasyRetard said: Yes, having been born yesterday, I didn't understand that. The problem with your response is that his question did not ask for a response based on "the long run." His question focus on specific matchups. Plus, he's talking about players who are not must-starts (like Kelce or McCaffrey), but guys who are started based on their matchups, like Montgomery, McLaurin, or Andrews. The problem with your response was that he wanted feedback on a particularly time frame, not based on what will work over the long haul. I hope you are now clear on this. Future note, if I ask for roster advice, I'm interested on that particular week and those matchups. I think I can figure out the long haul just fine. He asked for his best option for this week. Axe Elf told him his best option, with the explanation that flexing a TE is a bad idea, which is also true, and is true any time the question comes up. You see, what is true for "the long run" is also true in any specific instance. That's how probabilities work. I hope you are now clear on this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AxeElf 787 Posted September 19, 2019 On 9/12/2019 at 6:43 AM, Ponyboy said: WDIS Godwin or Hockenson WR/TE Flex Chris Godwin at Panthers or TJ Hockenson home vs Chargers Who should I roll with? Thanks! On 9/12/2019 at 11:33 AM, AxeElf said: You pretty much always flex any credible WR over any TE, unless maybe you happen to have two elite TEs like Kelce and Ertz or something. I don't know that a rookie TE in his 2nd NFL game against a pretty credible defense qualifies as an elite TE just yet. Parenthetically, Indianapolis TEs caught 2 passes on 5 targets for 28 yards and 0 TDs against the Chargers defense in Week 1. Same advice, same Week 2... Chris Godwin: 26.1 pts T.J. Hockenson: 1.7 pts The expected result--flexing a TE over a credible WR is a bad idea. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
