Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Justin Herbert, Chargers

[The Football Guru 211]

Draft Profile

The narrative on Herbert since it became clear he was destined to be a first-round pick has been that he's a prospect with a lot of physical tools but too much of an introvert to be the commanding presence NFL teams expect from the quarterback position (presumably because he's not a rah-rah, in-your-face guy). Herbert's arm talent arrivals that of any quarterback in this draft. His durability is a big plus (did not miss a start over his final two seasons) and his mobility is underrated. Herbert's tools are not in question. He loses very little accuracy on the move. He can manipulate linebackers and safeties. He makes the throw to the opposite hash - the throw that scouts often use as a test of arm strength - look routine.

With that said, Herbert made more maddening decisions than his 23 career interceptions would suggest - almost to the point where it was a legitimate question whether the Ducks ran so often to cut down his chances of making a mistake (as opposed to Oregon referring to run a conservative offense). He inexplicably threw into traffic on several occasions where he should have known better, and it is that inconsistency that is probably the most agonizing part of his game. Herbert could enjoy Carson Wentz-like success (hopefully, without the injuries) in the NFL, but there is the possibility he is the next Paxton Lynch if his decision-making continues to be an issue.

What does it mean in redraft? Herbert will almost certainly spend the first half of the season behind Tyrod Taylor and perhaps longer, depending on how successful the Chargers are during that time. As is typically the case with most rookie quarterbacks who aren't guaranteed to be a Week 1 starter and don't boast significant fantasy potential as a runner, Herbert does not need to be drafted in most 12-team leagues.

What does it mean for dynasty? Third fantasy QB off the board, likely sometime near the end of the second round. (Will update again after the draft is completed.)