Dak Prescott slumping

[Ray_T 591]

look people have been speaking about how Dak has been in a slump since his injury.

I'm gonna tell you the dips in his production have been explainable. (at least in part)

Daks 2 big years, everyone was kissing his azz saying how good he was.   if you looked on some of those threads I went on and posted saying hes not as good as the numbers.  he had what may have been the easiest schedule of almost any starting QB in the NFL those years.

I dont deny hes good.  but he was never top 5 good.   The stats were top 5 good but he wasnt.  in those years, New York Washington and Philly were probably 3 of the worst pass defenses in the NFL at the time and Dak played each of them twice and had games against Miami (who got the first overall pick) and a couple of other really easy starts.

This year he had a harder schedule.  New York, Washington and Philly are all better.  both on Offense and on D. (especially D) and they dont have the cake matchups like he had in those years.

I would argue he was never that good.  he has regressed to the mean and his schedule is no longer super easy like it was the last couple years he started.  but the offense has also dealt with a whole lot of injuries and time lost to covid and the line isnt what it was a couple years ago either.

I would suggest that while I said he wasnt as good as his stats showed before, I'm now telling you hes not as bad as what his stats are showing now.

he has some players returning to health now, zeke is getting healthy now.  not all the way there, but certainly better.

I think hes gonna start to play better now that players are coming back to full health.    

Do not expect the huge numbers he put up a couple years back.  I think those days are gone forever, but I think the worst of this slump may be in the rear view mirror.  hes a low end #1 QB.  thats how he should have been drafted.  

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Last season on 5 games he avg 31 points per game. This season he’s avg 22 points per game, and that’s good for 8th for the Qb slot per game avg.

So if he’s somewhere in between those two seasons, his avg would be right around 26 per game, and that would be matching both Mahomes and Murray.  

Thats pretty good. 

But any Qb taken before double digit rounds is a Qb drafted to early.  

Merry Christmas 

[Ray_T 591]

21 hours ago, weepaws said:

Last season on 5 games he avg 31 points per game. This season he’s avg 22 points per game, and that’s good for 8th for the Qb slot per game avg.

So if he’s somewhere in between those two seasons, his avg would be right around 26 per game, and that would be matching both Mahomes and Murray.  

Thats pretty good. 

for sure.  not bad

one thing I have noticed even in his good years.... he feasts on bad teams big time.  but tough defenses he can be a shaky start.

this year his schedule is tougher than hes had in a few years so the stats are not as good.  The injuries have not helped either.  Dallas may have to invest in some O line depth at some point too.   As washington, new york, and philly will improve with each year they have a high draft pick, I can see those teams moving from being easy matchups to tougher ones at some point.  I think when healthy all these teams are better already than what we saw 2 years ago, but still need another difference maker on each side of the ball before I'd consider them decent teams.

as dak plays these guys 2x each year, their improvement (or lack of the same) will directly affect Daks numbers  these 3 teams make up roughly 1/3 of daks schedule.

[weepaws 2,460]

He had a darn good game tonight.  

He needs a rb.  

[Ray_T 591]

interestingly enough, bad season aside, Zeke is still a top 10 RB.

 

look at this years stats.  hes #7 overall in rush yards.   I looked at my scoring in my standard league, and hes still top 10 there too.

wouldnt surprise me if hes a RB2 in PPR leagues due to the lower volume of passes caught.

but overall hes ok.  assuming he was hindered by the injury, he may be fine once hes to full health.

 

[Vikings4ever 496]

21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

interestingly enough, bad season aside, Zeke is still a top 10 RB.

 

look at this years stats.  hes #7 overall in rush yards.   I looked at my scoring in my standard league, and hes still top 10 there too.

wouldnt surprise me if hes a RB2 in PPR leagues due to the lower volume of passes caught.

but overall hes ok.  assuming he was hindered by the injury, he may be fine once hes to full health.

 

Zeke is RB6 is my PPR, though 13th in PPG. He's quietly got 45 receptions this year, tied for 8th among RBs.

He hasn't exactly had a bad year, but less than you'd expect from a healthy(ish) Zeke/Cowboys team.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, Vikings4ever said:

Zeke is RB6 is my PPR, though 13th in PPG. He's quietly got 45 receptions this year, tied for 8th among RBs.

He hasn't exactly had a bad year, but less than you'd expect from a healthy(ish) Zeke/Cowboys team.

very quietly.   I never even thought to look because he generally hasnt been much of a pass catcher in the past.

good catch.

[weepaws 2,460]

1/2 point ppr the Zeke ranks 12th in avg, still a rb1, but a disappointment for those that drafted him in the top three overall. 

[Ray_T 591]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:22 PM, weepaws said:

1/2 point ppr the Zeke ranks 12th in avg, still a rb1, but a disappointment for those that drafted him in the top three overall. 

I wouldnt have drafted him top 3, but going into the season he was definitely a pick in the top half of the first round.

and yeah, if you are gonna pick a player that high, you DO expect better.

Though it is worth noting that the O line is starting to get old.   the first sign is that players start getting hurt.  I hope Dallas has the foresight to draft or sign another O lineman.

at this point even a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a player who is likely a backup in year 1 but an eventual starter might be a solid investment and a good insurance policy.

[weepaws 2,460]

I had him top three for awhile, but than I started to back off because other posters starting talking about how is ff points have been lesser each season . 

And he’s avg .4 more points this season with Dak than he did last season without Dak   That’s not a first round pick for me . 

He wont be in my to 12 next season   

 

[Vikings4ever 496]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

I had him top three for awhile, but than I started to back off because other posters starting talking about how is ff points have been lesser each season . 

And he’s avg .4 more points this season with Dak than he did last season without Dak   That’s not a first round pick for me . 

He wont be in my to 12 next season   

 

For the most part, he wasn't a top 3 pick. McCaffrey, Cook, Henry, and Kamara were pretty much the consensus top 4, with Zeke, Taylor, Barkley and Chubb in the next tier (plus maybe Adams or Tyreek Hill).

As for top 12, maybe. Henry, Taylor, Mixon, Ekeler, Cook, Kamara, Harris, and Chubb should be ahead of him. Fournette's a FA, so we can't rank him yet. Do we trust Swift in Detroit? McCaffrey may be broken down in Carolina. Conner has 16 TDs in Arizona, can he repeat that feat? We don't know what GB is going to look like for Aaron Jones.

Can Gibson make the next step, or Montgomery rebound? Will things look better for Jacobs? Maybe Aaron Rodgers goes to Denver and opens things up for Javonte Williams? Kupp, Deebo, and Jefferson (plus maybe Adams depend on GB) likely will be in the area for WRs.

There's certainly an argument for avoiding a back a year too early rather than a year to late, but I don't know there's enough competition to write him off yet.

[weepaws 2,460]

In a non ppr I think there was a strong case with Dak back that the Zeke was worthy of a top three pick going into this season.  

Now that league is going to be a 1/2 point ppr, so wr will be moving up my own personal rankings a little.   

Right now I just don’t see my self being interested in the Zeke as a first round pick.   But that could change before next late August.